When will this shit end?

[zero000]

Just now, Toilet Duck said:

This fits with the data from Wuhan early in in the outbreak, where only 5% of household contacts of cases actually ended up testing positive.  How symptomatic was the infected individual in this case? I think one of the interesting questions is, what is it about super-spreaders that leads to massive infection levels, while in many other cases, only a small fraction of close contacts end up being infected. There are anecdotal reports of super-spreaders being asymptomatic, so there's got to be some reason to explain it!

Guessing the answer isn't because they're all dirty bastards who don't wash their hands?  

[Toilet Duck]

2 minutes ago, zero000 said:

Guessing the answer isn't because they're all dirty bastards who don't wash their hands?  

😁 I suspect not. Certainly the environment seems to play a role (high risk super-spreading events like weddings etc). 

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

😁 I suspect not. Certainly the environment seems to play a role (high risk super-spreading events like weddings etc). 

Talking of super spreaders, they're normally characterised as being super spreaders primarily because of behaviour.  Do you think there's a case that there's more of a biological component here?  I.e. super spreaders shed a lot more virus?

[Toilet Duck]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Talking of super spreaders, they're normally characterised as being super spreaders primarily because of behaviour.  Do you think there's a case that there's more of a biological component here?  I.e. super spreaders shed a lot more virus?

I suspect so, but I don't have any evidence for it! 

 

edit: Sorry, I'm chairing a research symposium at the moment and shouldn't be posting! what makes a super-spreader is probably a combination of biology (shed lots of virus, are immune from disease but not from catching it), behaviour (don't feel sick, don't know they have it, so go about their business normally) and environment (expose others in high risk locations/while undertaking high risk activities). There's probably more!

Edited September 25, 2020 by Toilet Duck

[Fuzzy Afro]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

Talking of super spreaders, they're normally characterised as being super spreaders primarily because of behaviour.  Do you think there's a case that there's more of a biological component here?  I.e. super spreaders shed a lot more virus?

Looking at what some scientists are saying about the K number of this virus compared to other pandemics, I don’t think it can be entirely behaviourally based. There will obviously be a behavioural element, but there is also a wide variety in the degree to which each individual is contagious. 

[phimill]

29 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

 

I keep seeing this data pop up - do we believe there is much correlation between this data and overall cases? 

Have we had the "spike" due to children going back to school and we will now settle back to circa 3.5/4k cases a day until the new restrictions begin to take effect? 

[Ozanne]

11 minutes ago, phimill said:

I keep seeing this data pop up - do we believe there is much correlation between this data and overall cases? 

Have we had the "spike" due to children going back to school and we will now settle back to circa 3.5/4k cases a day until the new restrictions begin to take effect? 

I said the other day that the spike in triage was probably due to the return of schools and parents worried about their child’s possible symptoms. As kids have been at school longer I would reckon that this data is therefore unlikely to be terribly helpful in predicting new positive cases.

[Toilet Duck]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

I said the other day that the spike in triage was probably due to the return of schools and parents worried about their child’s possible symptoms. As kids have been at school longer I would reckon that this data is therefore unlikely to be terribly helpful in predicting new positive cases.

It's also rhinovirus season, which has some overlapping symptoms. RSV season will be next, and then we'll hit flu season, so expect more of this!

[guypjfreak]

3 hours ago, FloorFiller said:

Glad I’m not the only one who’s mind went straight to that 😁

Pray tell... Old Son lol. 

 

[stuie]

47 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

This guy was asymptomatic, but caught it from someone who was pre-symptomatic. 

How do they know where they caught it from? Can anyone ever be sure? 

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, stuie said:

How do they know where they caught it from? Can anyone ever be sure? 

The reason he got tested in the first place was because he was contacted by someone he’d seen beforehand who went on to test positive. That person also knew where he had caught it because it was from someone that they had seen previously beforehand. They backwards traced it. 

 

 

 

[Ozanne]

16 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

It's also rhinovirus season, which has some overlapping symptoms. RSV season will be next, and then we'll hit flu season, so expect more of this!

Is rhinovirus the common cold, or a variation of it?

[Fuzzy Afro]

14 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Is rhinovirus the common cold, or a variation of it?

The common cold is actually a symptom rather than a virus itself, so it can be a symptom of several different underlying viruses. I believe rhinovirus is the leading cause of the common cold, although other viruses also cause a cold including some coronaviruses that circulate endemically within humans. 
 

 

tl;dr Yes, it’s the common cold 

Edited September 25, 2020 by Fuzzy Afro

[zahidf]

Literally everyone knew university teaching would end up being online. The only reason they told students to come in was to guarantee income from student accommodation rentals. Landlordism is literally holding 18 year olds hostage in prison sized rooms to secure rental income.

[Toilet Duck]

26 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Is rhinovirus the common cold, or a variation of it?

Yeah, most common colds are rhinoviruses. Coronaviruses only make up about 10-15% of them. 

[Ozanne]

 

[JoeyT]

Just now, Toilet Duck said:

Yeah, most common colds are rhinoviruses. Coronaviruses only make up about 10-15% of them. 

What's your positivity cup looking like going forwards and for the festival next year?

I thought some results of the oxford vaccine phase 3 trials were due in September?

Basically give me a virtual hug and tell me everything is going to be okay...

[Homer]

My mate who works for Cardiff council: "just on a management update now. Looks likely that Cardiff and the Vale will enter a local lockdown today." He was talking about it yesterday too.

[Toilet Duck]

2 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

What's your positivity cup looking like going forwards and for the festival next year?

I thought some results of the oxford vaccine phase 3 trials were due in September?

Basically give me a virtual hug and tell me everything is going to be okay...

Everything is going to be ok!

In terms of vaccines, Oxford, Moderna and Pfizer should all have early signals from their Phase 3 trials in the not too distant future. GSK/Sanofi have started their trials and Novavax has just started its phase 3 (and these are more established vaccine technologies, so less uncertainty about them). In short, there are now 10 or 11 vaccines in phase 3, at the normal attrition rate, they won't all fail. Operation moonshot was launched to great fanfare and has petered out a bit, but that's only down to supply chain issues (which will be resolved over the next few months...there's nothing wrong with the basic idea, but it was launched with a fair bit of hyperbole). So, I'd expect rapid testing to become much more widespread in the next few months and that changes everything. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

Bastards have gone and put London and the watchlist. FFS. 

[fraybentos1]

28 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Literally everyone knew university teaching would end up being online. The only reason they told students to come in was to guarantee income from student accommodation rentals. Landlordism is literally holding 18 year olds hostage in prison sized rooms to secure rental income.

Why did you literally just copy and paste this tweet as if it was you saying that 😂

 

[SheffJeff]

27 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Yeah, most common colds are rhinoviruses. Coronaviruses only make up about 10-15% of them. 

Is rhinovirus eponymous?

 

[Tartan_Glasto]

558 new Scottish cases alone 😳

[squirrelarmy]

Looks like mixing households is going to be next on the banned list apart from existing bubbles. Restrictions are getting announced for Leeds soon but rumours are it could be at a national level. 

[FestivalJamie]

30 minutes ago, Tartan_Glasto said:

558 new Scottish cases alone 😳

Scotland has a positivity rate of 9.5%....

Scotland First Minister Nicola Sturgeon confirms a further 558 people have tested positive for Covid-19, 9.5% of those tested in the past 24 hours.