When will this shit end?

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Just to play devils advocate here, would a two-week lockdown really be so awful for people to cope with? Essentially what anyone with symptoms is supposed to do anyway so if the prospect is that bad then we are screwed hoping people will follow that advice.

I accept a two week lockdown would be awful for the economy.

Weirdly I’m probably the biggest lockdown hater on this thread but I think I could handle two weeks if it was strictly two weeks with no possibility of extension. Having said that, I think it’s unnecessary and probably counter productive. 

[Crazyfool01]

3 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Just to play devils advocate here, would a two-week lockdown really be so awful for people to cope with? Essentially what anyone with symptoms is supposed to do anyway so if the prospect is that bad then we are screwed hoping people will follow that advice.

I accept a two week lockdown would be awful for the economy.

To me ... what’s going on currently seems to be having very little effect ? Hopefully someone will correct me ... 

[WestCountryGirl]

3 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Just to play devils advocate here, would a two-week lockdown really be so awful for people to cope with? Essentially what anyone with symptoms is supposed to do anyway so if the prospect is that bad then we are screwed hoping people will follow that advice.

I accept a two week lockdown would be awful for the economy.

I was just thinking this myself, that a 2 week lockdown wouldn't be so bad, but I appreciate that's because I'm in a very fortunate position where I live with my partner and can work from home.

The first lockdown was indefinite, and that was really difficult to deal with in the midst of it when it seemed there was no way out. Two weeks - for me - would be nothing. I've pretty much lived the 'lockdown life' for the last two weeks anyway.

[Zoo Music Girl]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Weirdly I’m probably the biggest lockdown hater on this thread but I think I could handle two weeks if it was strictly two weeks with no possibility of extension. Having said that, I think it’s unnecessary and probably counter productive. 

Yeah I guess the worry is that it could be extended.

[stuartbert two hats]

If they were going to go for a 2 week lockdown, making it match up with half term would be the kind of smart, joined up thinking we shouldn't expect.

[Toilet Duck]

11 minutes ago, fatyeti24 said:

I've said before I'm not one for data.  I prefer vibes, reading the room in between the lines and the worried look on scientists faces as they calmly try to explain why we should have more restrictions.

Basically lads, it's February.

I'm sure ToiletDuck would agree  

It's February...but, we also know what we are dealing with (a lot better than we did). Treatments are better, testing is better (was much better, having a hiccup at the moment, but way better testing is on the horizon), vaccine is a lot closer and while mask wearing isn't universal, it's a damn sight better than it was back at the start. So, in terms of case numbers, it's probably comparable to February, but in terms of where it goes and how we deal with it, I think we've moved on quite a lot....at least I bloody hope we have! Numbers of contacts are the big problem right now. To control that, you either use a blunt instrument like lockdown, or a more nuanced approach (local restrictions, reduced opportunities for large gatherings etc, or preferably, my old friend advance testing!). The situation is serious, but another national lockdown would be a catastrophic failure to learn anything from the last 6 months (not an impossible turn of events mind you). All across Europe, we've pushed opening up to the limit we can manage without a vaccine or blockbuster treatment...I know I've said this many times, but for the next year at least, without easy access to rapid advance testing, then we will end up following all the models that were generated at the start (which is exactly what is currently happening...albeit we have intervened more and pushed the gap between the peaks out a bit longer than was predicted)...

[Fuzzy Afro]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

If they were going to go for a 2 week lockdown, making it match up with half term would be the kind of smart, joined up thinking we shouldn't expect.

Christ I hadn’t even considered the fact that half term is just over a month away. That could be a bit of a disaster if people are taking staycations all over the country. 

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, Toilet Duck said:

It's February...but, we also know what we are dealing with (a lot better than we did). Treatments are better, testing is better (was much better, having a hiccup at the moment, but way better testing is on the horizon), vaccine is a lot closer and while mask wearing isn't universal, it's a damn sight better than it was back at the start. So, in terms of case numbers, it's probably comparable to February, but in terms of where it goes and how we deal with it, I think we've moved on quite a lot....at least I bloody hope we have! Numbers of contacts are the big problem right now. To control that, you either use a blunt instrument like lockdown, or a more nuanced approach (local restrictions, reduced opportunities for large gatherings etc, or preferably, my old friend advance testing!). The situation is serious, but another national lockdown would be a catastrophic failure to learn anything from the last 6 months (not an impossible turn of events mind you). All across Europe, we've pushed opening up to the limit we can manage without a vaccine or blockbuster treatment...I know I've said this many times, but for the next year at least, without easy access to rapid advance testing, then we will end up following all the models that were generated at the start (which is exactly what is currently happening...albeit we have intervened more and pushed the gap between the peaks out a bit longer than was predicted)...

Is immunity from the thousands who have already had the virus (particularly front line healthcare workers who anecdotally all seem to have had it) a factor in why things could be a little better this time?

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, WestCountryGirl said:

I was just thinking this myself, that a 2 week lockdown wouldn't be so bad, but I appreciate that's because I'm in a very fortunate position where I live with my partner and can work from home.

The first lockdown was indefinite, and that was really difficult to deal with in the midst of it when it seemed there was no way out. Two weeks - for me - would be nothing. I've pretty much lived the 'lockdown life' for the last two weeks anyway.

With current restrictions many will be living close to those kind of restrictions anyway ... it’s not like pubs are massive fun ... or we have live music that we would all miss ... maybe the people who have returned to as close to normal life as is possible will be more hit ... but surely that’s most effective to limit these in controlling the virus 

[Zoo Music Girl]

On the testing thing, colleague of mine has a old-school age kid with a fever. Couldn't get anywhere near getting him a test as website just kicks her out apparently.

[steviewevie]

10 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Just to play devils advocate here, would a two-week lockdown really be so awful for people to cope with? Essentially what anyone with symptoms is supposed to do anyway so if the prospect is that bad then we are screwed hoping people will follow that advice.

I accept a two week lockdown would be awful for the economy.

be a nice little break.

[Zoo Music Girl]

Just now, Zoo Music Girl said:

On the testing thing, colleague of mine has a old-school age kid with a fever. Couldn't get anywhere near getting him a test as website just kicks her out apparently.

Pre-school not old-school! Ha 

[zahidf]

problem would be that it wouldnt stop at a 2 week lockdown: itll be extended and turn indefinite

Post cummings, enforcement will be an issue as well

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, Zoo Music Girl said:

On the testing thing, colleague of mine has a old-school age kid with a fever. Couldn't get anywhere near getting him a test as website just kicks her out apparently.

As an update on that, whilst it sounded like getting a test was a breeze on my end earlier this week, turns out Mrs Hats spent hours on the laptop refreshing the web page to get a booking.  Like noughties Glastonbury tickets levels of perseverance.

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

It's February...but, we also know what we are dealing with (a lot better than we did). Treatments are better, testing is better (was much better, having a hiccup at the moment, but way better testing is on the horizon), vaccine is a lot closer and while mask wearing isn't universal, it's a damn sight better than it was back at the start. So, in terms of case numbers, it's probably comparable to February, but in terms of where it goes and how we deal with it, I think we've moved on quite a lot....at least I bloody hope we have! Numbers of contacts are the big problem right now. To control that, you either use a blunt instrument like lockdown, or a more nuanced approach (local restrictions, reduced opportunities for large gatherings etc, or preferably, my old friend advance testing!). The situation is serious, but another national lockdown would be a catastrophic failure to learn anything from the last 6 months (not an impossible turn of events mind you). All across Europe, we've pushed opening up to the limit we can manage without a vaccine or blockbuster treatment...I know I've said this many times, but for the next year at least, without easy access to rapid advance testing, then we will end up following all the models that were generated at the start (which is exactly what is currently happening...albeit we have intervened more and pushed the gap between the peaks out a bit longer than was predicted)...

but...fewer people scared of it...more people sick of it...more people think it's all overblown, or even fake?

[Ozanne]

34 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I blame the media for jumping on rumour, gossip and memery rather than anyone for posting media stories on here, and I genuinely do apologise if I worded my post in a way that came across as being harsh towards you which wasn’t my intention, but I just wanted to point out that Costello tweeted that he’s “hearing” Whitty wants a two week lockdown isn’t really a reliable source and we shouldn’t be jumping to the assumption that Whitty is lobbying for that as sections of the media had done. Please do continue posting tidbits on here, but it’s important that we don’t believe everything as gospel especially when any second lockdown will have such devastating effects on mental health up and down the country. 

To be fair I don’t believe much I see is true, my natural distrust coming through. I get your point and what you say about your post. Cheers. 

[fatyeti24]

3 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

It's February...but, we also know what we are dealing with (a lot better than we did). Treatments are better, testing is better (was much better, having a hiccup at the moment, but way better testing is on the horizon), vaccine is a lot closer and while mask wearing isn't universal, it's a damn sight better than it was back at the start. So, in terms of case numbers, it's probably comparable to February, but in terms of where it goes and how we deal with it, I think we've moved on quite a lot....at least I bloody hope we have! Numbers of contacts are the big problem right now. To control that, you either use a blunt instrument like lockdown, or a more nuanced approach (local restrictions, reduced opportunities for large gatherings etc, or preferably, my old friend advance testing!). The situation is serious, but another national lockdown would be a catastrophic failure to learn anything from the last 6 months (not an impossible turn of events mind you). All across Europe, we've pushed opening up to the limit we can manage without a vaccine or blockbuster treatment...I know I've said this many times, but for the next year at least, without easy access to rapid advance testing, then we will end up following all the models that were generated at the start (which is exactly what is currently happening...albeit we have intervened more and pushed the gap between the peaks out a bit longer than was predicted)...

Cheers fella. Nice to have a bit of scientific opinion to back up my bullshit!

I think that makes you an enabler!

[Toilet Duck]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

Is immunity from the thousands who have already had the virus (particularly front line healthcare workers who anecdotally all seem to have had it) a factor in why things could be a little better this time?

It's could end up playing a role at some point (and I still think underlying immunity to other CoVs is behind the mild and asymptomatic cases)...the problem is we have no idea how large the susceptible population is. Going on the REACT2 data, 80%+ of the population have still had no contact with this virus in terms of specific immunity to it. How many of those are susceptible to severe disease is an unknown the determines how many cycles of this we need to go through before everyone has enough protection to only get mild symptoms (and there will inevitably be a cohort who just never do...over 65s being the most obvious suggestion and likely to be those who get early and probably repeated access to vaccination). Of course, a vaccine changes the course of that entirely (and again, advance testing can keep a lid on things as well). Whether the level of exposure from the first wave plays a role this time will be hard to judge since treatments are better, PPE for frontline workers is not an issue any more and numerous other things that will probably influence the severity of this next peak.

[zahidf]

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/17/sneak-culture-boris-johnson-priti-patel-rule-of-six-snooping-england-covid?__twitter_impression=true

 

Don't br a sneak says BJ

[Toilet Duck]

8 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

but...fewer people scared of it...more people sick of it...more people think it's all overblown, or even fake?

Yep, waaaay back at the start of this thread (or maybe one of the other CoV threads) behavioural changes were one of the things I suggested could alter the model...but that it works both ways and people end up getting pissed off with restrictions and think, feck it. It's not an easy situation to manage, I have the luxury of just looking at the science and thinking, this is how I would do it, but it's much bigger than that (even those that generated the models that guided the reaction to the first wave admitted that difficult policy decisions were required, but didn't venture any!). 

[Toilet Duck]

13 minutes ago, fatyeti24 said:

Cheers fella. Nice to have a bit of scientific opinion to back up my bullshit!

I think that makes you an enabler!

😁

[whitehorses]

19 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

On the testing thing, colleague of mine has a old-school age kid with a fever. Couldn't get anywhere near getting him a test as website just kicks her out apparently.

Anyone who’s ever tried for a Glastonbury ticket can relate 

[steviewevie]

9 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Yep, waaaay back at the start of this thread (or maybe one of the other CoV threads) behavioural changes were one of the things I suggested could alter the model...but that it works both ways and people end up getting pissed off with restrictions and think, feck it. It's not an easy situation to manage, I have the luxury of just looking at the science and thinking, this is how I would do it, but it's much bigger than that (even those that generated the models that guided the reaction to the first wave admitted that difficult policy decisions were required, but didn't venture any!). 

one of the reasons they were reluctant to go into full lockdown in UK in early/mid March maybe...? Behavioural science and all that.

[efcfanwirral]

It'll be unpatriotic to question the testing system next...

[steviewevie]