When will this shit end?

[Waterdeep]

3 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Excess deaths is a really useful bit of data because it's a clear indicator of the net effect of COVID on deaths. It's really clear in what it tells us, I.e. how many extra people have died in the year with the virus compared to previous years. It doesn't tell us if it's a direct death from contracting the virus or some other knock on effect (fewer services for other diseases, mental health etc.), so in that sense it's not terribly precise in what it tells us. However it is very accurate compared to the other numbers flying around. There's not a lot of measurement ambiguity with excess deaths. The figures are the figures, we know if someone is dead or not. It tells us something very useful and definitive about the net effect of the virus.

Hospital admissions however are limited in lots of ways in telling us about the effects of the virus. For a start, hospitals can get full, and more importantly, they can be perceived to be full.  I've had a routine operation rescheduled, possibly until next year, for instance and a great number of other people have had their hospital admissions either deferred or cancelled. We may have been able to avoid pictures of ICU patients dying in the corridors waiting for a ventilator, but this came at the cost of cancelling most other treatment and scaring people away from seeking treatment.  So what I'm saying is that there are many factors that will suppress the hospitalisation levels that don't apply to deaths.

If you're considering admission to hospital, you can choose not to, or that option might not be available to you, but if your body is no longer able to support life, then you will still die.

Ah yes I get you, they're definitely not accurate. I just meant as a rough indicator of the ratio as the hospital numbers go up. Lots of factors in play to fuzz up the numbers!

[steviewevie]

They voted for the withdrawel agreement and then voted to break that agreement.

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

What are they going to get out of this? I understand they can get away with anything in a pacified country and its probably just money, but after January they have to deal with this new reality...

 

The same Ian Dunt has already written it up...

https://politics.co.uk/blogs/2020/09/14/shock-and-outrage-as-parliament-votes-to-put-government-abov

 

[Ozanne]

People shouldn’t be surprised, this was always going to happen, certainly at this stage. They’ll get it through to the committee stage then try for some amendments. Equally it’s a Tory government with a majority of 80, it was always going to pass. This is what happens when we vote them in with a strong majority. 

[Leyrulion]

35 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

How on earth do these votes take so long to count ? Looks like they only have about 10 people in the hoc ... presume the rest is electronic ... is Priti  doing the adding up ? 

Actually no. They removed the ability to vote electronically when they returned in June. So everyone has to line up, socially distant, through the commons and into Westminster hall. Think the queue is about a mile long someone worked out.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

People shouldn’t be surprised, this was always going to happen, certainly at this stage. They’ll get it through to the committee stage then try for some amendments. Equally it’s a Tory government with a majority of 80, it was always going to pass. This is what happens when we vote them in with a strong majority. 

yeah...but it's the hope that kills you.

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yeah...but it's the hope that kills you.

As a Liverpool fan I know the feeling all too well (well I did before last season). 😉

[efcfanwirral]

 

Presume they'll be out then. Clearing the decks as they need absolute loyalty for what's coming next 

[Zoo Music Girl]

On the plus side Ed Miliband smashed it! What a great speech.

[Ryan1984]

This is how they (Cummings?) will frame it then... Shameless.

 

[Zoo Music Girl]

I know it doesn't count for anything but it made me feel better.

[Ozanne]

48 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

How on earth do these votes take so long to count ? Looks like they only have about 10 people in the hoc ... presume the rest is electronic ... is Priti  doing the adding up ? 

To be fair you aren’t far off. They did have remote voting which they agreed to get rid off in May. They now have a pass reader system, 2 in each lobby enabling 4 MPs to vote socially distanced at a time. They go into the relevant lobby and tap their pass on the reader to register to their vote. The division lasts 18 minutes.

So when you say they vote electronically you are sort of right!

Edited September 14, 2020 by Ozanne

[mattiloy]

3 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

What are they going to get out of this? I understand they can get away with anything in a pacified country and its probably just money, but after January they have to deal with this new reality...

 

A good question. A sense of deliberacy in respect of the march towards chaos makes you wonder if its part of the plan.

You gotta have a big mess to get people to make big changes. Maybe Boris is there to make an unholy mess and then check out. After him comes Gove or somebody to put it back together in the way Cummings wants.

[Ozanne]

3 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

This is how they (Cummings?) will frame it then... Shameless.

 

I have a feeling they’ve done this just to bring that type of message back up as Labour were improving in the polls. 

[efcfanwirral]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I have a feeling they’ve done this just to bring that type of message back up as Labour were improving in the polls. 

Still can't work out how they'll blame the effects on Labour and remainers. With or without a deal there is major disruption coming January. They'll have to blame it on them alongside the EU, but it will be stretching logic even for the Tories and their cult followers...

Edited September 14, 2020 by efcfanwirral

[DeanoL]

Given how far people are having to travel for tests, I can't help but think Cummings was ahead of his time with the whole "think you might have COVID - go for a long drive" approach.

[gizmoman]

2 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Excess deaths is a really useful bit of data because it's a clear indicator of the net effect of COVID on deaths. It's really clear in what it tells us, I.e. how many extra people have died in the year with the virus compared to previous years. It doesn't tell us if it's a direct death from contracting the virus or some other knock on effect (fewer services for other diseases, mental health etc.), so in that sense it's not terribly precise in what it tells us. However it is very accurate compared to the other numbers flying around. There's not a lot of measurement ambiguity with excess deaths. The figures are the figures, we know if someone is dead or not. It tells us something very useful and definitive about the net effect of the virus.

Hospital admissions however are limited in lots of ways in telling us about the effects of the virus. For a start, hospitals can get full, and more importantly, they can be perceived to be full.  I've had a routine operation rescheduled, possibly until next year, for instance and a great number of other people have had their hospital admissions either deferred or cancelled. We may have been able to avoid pictures of ICU patients dying in the corridors waiting for a ventilator, but this came at the cost of cancelling most other treatment and scaring people away from seeking treatment.  So what I'm saying is that there are many factors that will suppress the hospitalisation levels that don't apply to deaths.

If you're considering admission to hospital, you can choose not to, or that option might not be available to you, but if your body is no longer able to support life, then you will still die.

All excellent points, the one thing I would add is the Flu factor, in that if you have a very mild (or very bad) Flu season one year the following years figures will be affected as the very old & vunerable will survive a weak Flu year but then will be a year older and weaker and may well go the following year, similarly a bad Flu year will kill more and leave people less vunerable the following year. The fact that so many have died from Covid (mainly the very old and vunerable) this year  will mean this winters toll shouldn't be quite so bad.

[eFestivals]

8 hours ago, Ryan1984 said:

This is how they (Cummings?) will frame it then... Shameless.

 

the tories voted to side with robbers, murderers, rapists, kiddie fiddlers, and other law breakers.  

[Ryan1984]

Priti Patel on the news this morning. Nightmare start to a Tuesday.

[jparx]

2 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

Priti Patel on the news this morning. Nightmare start to a Tuesday.

Thanks for the warning.

[Ryan1984]

2 minutes ago, jparx said:

Thanks for the warning.

Dan Walker told her that the way she is presenting the testing is ‘very different’ to the experiences of a number of viewers.

[steviewevie]

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/sep/15/english-addiction-services-on-brink-as-number-of-higher-risk-drinkers-doubles

..this affecting anyone? I definitely had to have a little word with myself and start trying to have a few alcohol free days a week...even started buying some alcohol free beers...blurgh. Wasn't drinking loads, 3 or 4 beers, maybe a G&T or two, maybe a glass of wine of two, but it was every day...and I was starting to feel pretty crap, until 5pm which was beer time.

[Simsy]

 

[Mr.Tease]

9 hours ago, steviewevie said:

They voted for the withdrawel agreement and then voted to break that agreement.

After campaigning on an electoral platform that essentially was solely based on implementing that agreement because they said it was fantastic

[duke88]

9 hours ago, Ozanne said:

As a Liverpool fan I know the feeling all too well (well I did before last season). 😉

Yeah, you had it so tough until last season 🙄