When will this shit end?

[stuie]

2 minutes ago, Mark E. Spliff said:

Not so.  R rate measures the acceleration of the increase in numbers infected, not the increase.  The following three examples are oversimplified, i.e. they don't take any account of the latency period etc, but they still illustrate the effects of different R rates:

1.  R rate = 2

Day one ten cases.  Day two 20 cases.  Day three 40 cases.  Day four 60 cases.

2.  R rate = 1.

 Day one ten cases.  Day two 20 cases.  Day three 30 cases.  Day four 40 cases.  Etc.

3.  R rate = 0.5

Day one ten cases.  Day two  15 cases.  Day three 17.5 cases.  Day four 18.75 cases.  Etc.

Thanks for explaining! I stand corrected. 
 

I was thinking if one person only gave it to one other person then the numbers wouldn’t rise. I guess I forgot about the original person? Actually I don’t know what I was thinking 😂

[metallimuse]

Wasn't this the protocol we were told when we came out of lockdown?

So we should be in lockdown again now.

[mikegday]

6 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Nah regional lockdown I reckon 

A regional lockdown - that just so happens to include every region!

I think this side of Christmas they will do ANYTHING to keep things open and keep Christmas trading as high as possible. By end of Dec I think we will be in a very bad way as a result of their reluctance, come January they’ll have to eventually surrender and so many regions will be under lockdown it may as well be called a national one.

[steviewevie]

Just now, metallimuse said:

Wasn't this the protocol we were told when we came out of lockdown?

So we should be in lockdown again now.

[stuie]

4 minutes ago, SDSM said:

Before I get any stick for giving a downvote, I feel that posting this under c**t gallery is highly disrespectful 

It’s just someone’s personal opinion. Many more think much worse of him.
 

l don’t think Mr Hancock reads efests anyway. 

[Mark E. Spliff]

1 minute ago, stuie said:

Thanks for explaining! I stand corrected. 
 

I was thinking if one person only gave it to one other person then the numbers wouldn’t rise. I guess I forgot about the original person? Actually I don’t know what I was thinking 😂

I don't understand maths particularly well either, and I'm pretty sure the figures in my examples are wrong . The important bit to get your head around is R=1 means an increase at a constant rate, whereas R>1 means exponential increase and R<1 means increase at reducing rate.  (Presumably R=0 means a cliff-edge with infections stopping entirely.  The sort of thing people were pondering earlier in the thread with regard to the effects of a 14-day, 100% strict lockdown.)

[SDSM]

1 minute ago, stuie said:

It’s just someone’s personal opinion. Many more think much worse of him.
 

l don’t think Mr Hancock reads efests anyway. 

Ye but I think the fact the word c**ts was used gives me a right to downvote it’s hardly a debating term is it , if you get me 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, SDSM said:

Ye but I think the fact the word c**ts was used gives me a right to downvote it’s hardly a debating term is it , if you get me 

he is a c**t though.

[steviewevie]

Just now, steviewevie said:

he is a c**t though.

hey, some clever software puts ** in the word c**t

[steviewevie]

c**tchops

[stuie]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

c**tchops

Another forum i used to go on didn’t like people talking about sc**thorpe

*edit: efests doesn’t like sc**thorpe either 😂

Edited September 11, 2020 by stuie

[Fuzzy Afro]

10 minutes ago, metallimuse said:

Wasn't this the protocol we were told when we came out of lockdown?

So we should be in lockdown again now.

 

Is that legit? The vulnerable have been allowed to leave home for ages despite no vaccine

[rascalpete]

4 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

 

Is that legit? The vulnerable have been allowed to leave home for ages despite no vaccine

My ‘U-turn senses’ are tingling

[Fuzzy Afro]

25 minutes ago, metallimuse said:

Do we think at the rate it's going a second full English lockdown is likely?

 

How are you defining a lockdown? Because that term seems to have a wide range of different meanings depending on who you ask these days.

 

FWIW, I think restrictions will end up being further tightened on a nationwide basis, but we won't have a "lockdown" in the same regard that we did from March - ??? (I'm not sure what the official end date was for the first lockdown? Restrictions went gradually so maybe 4th July was the main end?)

 

I think by far the most likely scenario is that we national "lockdown" that follows the rules of the Manchester "lockdown" where hospitality remains open, but you can't socialise in houses and have to keep it to parks etc. Boris won't close pubs again unless R gets to like 3-4 as per March and the NHS looks like being overwhelmed, but I think he might well do away with the rule of six in favour of something even stricter.

[steviewevie]

Remember these Alert Levels? I assume we're going from 3 to 4?

Edited September 11, 2020 by steviewevie

[Fuzzy Afro]

Just now, steviewevie said:

Remember these Alert Levels? I assume we're going from 2 to 3...?

Don’t think we ever went to 2. We are in level 3 and remain so. I think they’ll hold off on moving it to 4 for now 

[squirrelarmy]

10 minutes ago, stuie said:

Another forum i used to go on didn’t like people talking about sc**thorpe

*edit: efests doesn’t like sc**thorpe either 😂

I was dating a girl from Sunny Scunny years ago. There was a barbers there which was called Public Hair Salon. 
 

Someone had stolen the first L from the sign. 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, squirrelarmy said:

I was dating a girl from Sunny Scunny years ago. There was a barbers there which was called Public Hair Salon. 
 

Someone had stolen the first L from the sign. 

did you go in for a trim?

[stuie]

5 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

I was dating a girl from Sunny Scunny years ago. There was a barbers there which was called Public Hair Salon. 
 

Someone had stolen the first L from the sign. 

Made me laugh more than it probably should have 😂😂 kind of stuff we used to do as youngsters 

[Crazyfool01]

Would any lockdown not be preempted by protecting the vulnerable ... see you later guys ... was nice going for my one swim this week ... always thought I might be tempting fate by signing back up 

[st dan]

The press need to be careful comparing recent figures to those back in March/April. It’s like comparing apples and pears. 
Saying that we know they won’t, the drama and panicked headlines certainly help to sell. 

[philipsteak]

41 minutes ago, SDSM said:

Before I get any stick for giving a downvote, I feel that posting this under c**t gallery is highly disrespectful 

You are correct, it was disrespectful towards the c**t. Which is why I upvoted it

[stuartbert two hats]

42 minutes ago, SDSM said:

Before I get any stick for giving a downvote, I feel that posting this under c**t gallery is highly disrespectful 

Telling us to get a test if in doubt then getting all indignant when 20% of people getting tests are asymptomatic is disrespectful.  That prick doesn't deserve our respect.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, st dan said:

The press need to be careful comparing recent figures to those back in March/April. It’s like comparing apples and pears. 
Saying that we know they won’t, the drama and panicked headlines certainly help to sell. 

yeah, very true...but in end messaging is difficult. Don't want to make people panic, but at same time people need to be made aware that it is still out there and so life can't return to complete normality yet...and infact we may be like this until at least next spring.

[steviewevie]