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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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Just now, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Cases have been ever so slightly rising since the start of July, but so has testing, yet deaths are still gradually falling and levelling off as are ICU admissions. Over a month you’d be seeing deaths start to rise again now, but we aren’t so it’s mainly just increased testing = increased cases. 

Yeah it definitely looks that way. I do feel that as treatment gets more tested and effective we will see deaths sharply drop off.

What is the measure of success though? Lower deaths or lower cases? I’m a firm believer that with a virus of this kinda wherever you test you will find it. 

When do we start thinking we’re in the clear? When deaths are at an all time low or positive results start to stabilise? Or when a significant number of the planet has been vaccinated?

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1 minute ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Cases have been ever so slightly rising since the start of July, but so has testing, yet deaths are still gradually falling and levelling off as are ICU admissions. Over a month you’d be seeing deaths start to rise again now, but we aren’t so it’s mainly just increased testing = increased cases. 

This is definitely what I take a cautious optimism from. It could be that the increased testing is picking up more of the asymptotic/mild cases in the younger generation. Fingers crossed, so far in our area (Leicester) since the peak 6/7 weeks ago it’s not translated into hospital admissions - so perhaps awareness is higher and it’s not spreading to the older generation which = more hospitalisations.

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4 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Yeah it definitely looks that way. I do feel that as treatment gets more tested and effective we will see deaths sharply drop off.

What is the measure of success though? Lower deaths or lower cases? I’m a firm believer that with a virus of this kinda wherever you test you will find it. 

When do we start thinking we’re in the clear? When deaths are at an all time low or positive results start to stabilise? Or when a significant number of the planet has been vaccinated?

From Toilet Ducks recent posts it seems there is a lot to do with T-cells, so the virus might circulate forever but it’s less deadly, we don’t become immune from it but we all mostly become immune from dying from it. But I guess you can only really call success eradication which could surely only be achieved by vaccine. 

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Whilst increase testing will be a big part just saying it’s down to that runs the risk of complacency when as enter Autumn we need to be doing the complete opposite. As I said as cases are rising in the summer is a concern and should lead to people being very cautious. Just saying it’s down to more cases could be a very irresponsible line to take. 

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2 hours ago, Waterdeep said:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.28.225912v2.full.pdf

@Toilet Duck do you have any thoughts on this?

'Most SARS-CoV-2-positive cells were also positive for dsRNA, and rates of double-positive cells counted at 6 hours post-infection followed a pattern that roughly matched the accumulation of progeny (Fig. 1D). The dsRNA staining was seen as clear puncta in SARS-CoV-2-infected cells, in a pattern suggestive of virus factories.'

Does this mean it can replicate in the t cells?

'These findings corroborate previous observations that SARS-CoV enters B lymphocytes and monocyte-derived cells via a FcγRII-dependent pathway, which is facilitated by the presence of antibodies'.

Would this point towards ADE?

Finding evidence of viral replication machinery in cells doesn't mean it can effectively replicate in them. Some cell lines are resistant to efficient replication even after cell entry. Morbilliviruses replicate poorly in macrophages despite being able to readily enter them, but go nuts in lymphocytes...

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23 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Whilst increase testing will be a big part just saying it’s down to that runs the risk of complacency when as enter Autumn we need to be doing the complete opposite. As I said as cases are rising in the summer is a concern and should lead to people being very cautious. Just saying it’s down to more cases could be a very irresponsible line to take. 

yeah, this.

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1 hour ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Minor bit of good news, no COVID deaths in Greater Manchester for the third day in a row. Don't believe all you hear about us in the NW!

I'm see this as a positive too, even with case rises it doesn't seem to be reflecting into hospitalisation or deaths yet... lets hope it keeps that way :) 

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1 hour ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Minor bit of good news, no COVID deaths in Greater Manchester for the third day in a row. Don't believe all you hear about us in the NW!

That's a relief, because half of the north west seems to be currently walking around the town I live in.  Standing on my balcony shouting GO HOME, UNCLEAN isn't really thinning the crowds.

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24 minutes ago, fatyeti24 said:

That's a relief, because half of the north west seems to be currently walking around the town I live in.  Standing on my balcony shouting GO HOME, UNCLEAN isn't really thinning the crowds.

Yep, seeing some of the addresses on guest registration forms isn't filling me with joy. They aren't technically doing anything wrong, but still

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