When will this shit end?

[sime]

11 minutes ago, philipsteak said:

 

 

 

 

 

(sorry)

Original photo. With explanation...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53692475

 

[sime]

[sime]

But yeah, I get the Johnson joke!

[Toilet Duck]

48 minutes ago, Superscally said:

We'll be detecting less severe cases these days. Now it's so easy to get a test and it's become less of a strange thing, people go at the first sign of a cough, whereas I'd say earlier people wouldn't do it as freely. I'd like to hope the virus has become less virulent, but I believe the impression is that no significant mutations in that department have occurred. 

Yep, pretty much this. The virus looks fairly stable, there haven’t been solid reports of a major shift in virulence and it doesn’t tend to happen with CoVs, but you know biology, nothing surprises me!...but if we look at outbreaks like those we’ve had in Ireland recently and previous big spikes in Germany and other places, we start to get a clearer picture of just how many people get infected in these super spreading events. Criteria for tests have changed significantly since the beginning of this (now we have more capacity and they don’t have to be rationed), so we see lots more asymptomatic cases and this reflects the fact that previously we were only picking up about 1/10th of actual cases. But the massive number of asymptomatic (but still infectious) cases does pose questions that are difficult to answer in terms of how many people may have been infected overall. We don’t know whether asymptomatic individuals always produce antibodies and, if so, how long do they last? How useful are seroprevalence studies if they can’t accurately identify prior infection due to the biology of the disease? Some of the studies looking at CoV-targeted t-cells in uninflected individuals suggest they are present in 60-80% of the population studied. So, are we starting from a fairly high point in terms of a “sort of herd immunity”? ie, as suggested a few pages back, not immune from catching and passing it on, but immune from serious disease (and there are sound biological explanations for why this might be the case)...the key piece of missing information is a prospective study to look at t-cells and correlation with disease severity (as well as infection susceptibility). That needs to be done somewhere where the virus is spreading rapidly (It would have been a lovely investigative study to include in any of the vaccine trials, but understandably the folks running the trials are focused on the efficacy of their vaccines). 
 

@FestivalJamie is also correct. It’s still spreading and there are still people dying from it, so even if we might be closer to a kind of herd immunity than we think, we are clearly not there yet...and the other thing that needs to be considered is, if t-cells are the key here, then thymic involution is the best explanation for why over 65s have the greatest risk of severe disease (basically the part of our body that makes t-cells shrinks with age, and our ability to make new t-cells is significantly diminished once we hit our 70s). So, a vaccine that generates strong protective neutralising antibodies that last for at least 6 months would help protect those who can’t naturally fight off the infection (might need a shot each year like flu, maybe even more than once a year). New recombinant antibody therapy might also be a feasible way of achieving this. The more I read, the more the above makes sense to me (of course I could be completely wrong!). But, it still means we need a vaccine or better treatments to protect those most vulnerable. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

16 hours ago, FestivalJamie said:

Doesn’t line up with cases starting to increase again in the rest of Europe and worldwide.

I reckon Sweden will see a second wave just like the rest of us.

That’s because there is no such thing as a second wave, it’s just the first wave that was squashed down re-emerging. For the countries that locked down first and hardest they’re seeing a resurgence because it didn’t go anywhere, it was merely paused. It’s why Australia had hardly any deaths and cases, started to go back to normal, and then saw large spikes. As Sweden didn’t lock down fully it’s a perfectly plausible theory that it’s run its course/started to burn out irrespective of what is happening in countries that put a much bigger lid on it. 

Edited August 9, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[stuartbert two hats]

Since Professor Duck is in the house, I have a question - these new fangled RNA vaccines are apparently showing promise, but what's the point of them? I mean, what are the potential advantages of them over the traditional approaches or even the less traditional, but not quite as radical approaches like the Oxford vaccine? Could they have any advantages in terms of efficacy?

Edited August 9, 2020 by stuartbert two hats

[Toilet Duck]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Since Professor Duck is in the house, I have a question - these new fangled RNA vaccines are apparently showing promise, but what's the point of them? I mean, what are the potential advantages of them over the traditional approaches or even the less traditional, but not quite as radical approaches like the Oxford vaccine? Could they have any advantages in terms of efficacy?

Basically they are the future of rapid vaccine development. Easy to generate and easy to scale up. All you need is the sequence of the virus and you can make a new vaccine (well, for a brand new virus species that we know absolute nothing about, some molecular studies to determine what each of the genes in the viral genome do would be needed in order to select the best candidate for inclusion in the vaccine, but for new variants of viruses we already know about, then It’s pretty easy to pick the right one). The platforms have been developed to allow us to react rapidly to emerging viral threats, so what you are seeing now is the first test case of the system under the conditions it was designed to react to!

[steviewevie]

sweden man talk about things

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/09/swedens-covid-expert-warns-uk-opening-and-closing-schools-would-be-disastrous

[Superscally]

32 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Yep, pretty much this. The virus looks fairly stable, there haven’t been solid reports of a major shift in virulence and it doesn’t tend to happen with CoVs, but you know biology, nothing surprises me!...but if we look at outbreaks like those we’ve had in Ireland recently and previous big spikes in Germany and other places, we start to get a clearer picture of just how many people get infected in these super spreading events. Criteria for tests have changed significantly since the beginning of this (now we have more capacity and they don’t have to be rationed), so we see lots more asymptomatic cases and this reflects the fact that previously we were only picking up about 1/10th of actual cases. But the massive number of asymptomatic (but still infectious) cases does pose questions that are difficult to answer in terms of how many people may have been infected overall. We don’t know whether asymptomatic individuals always produce antibodies and, if so, how long do they last? How useful are seroprevalence studies if they can’t accurately identify prior infection due to the biology of the disease? Some of the studies looking at CoV-targeted t-cells in uninflected individuals suggest they are present in 60-80% of the population studied. So, are we starting from a fairly high point in terms of a “sort of herd immunity”? ie, as suggested a few pages back, not immune from catching and passing it on, but immune from serious disease (and there are sound biological explanations for why this might be the case)...the key piece of missing information is a prospective study to look at t-cells and correlation with disease severity (as well as infection susceptibility). That needs to be done somewhere where the virus is spreading rapidly (It would have been a lovely investigative study to include in any of the vaccine trials, but understandably the folks running the trials are focused on the efficacy of their vaccines).  

All we can hope is that it doesn't pull the FIP trick like FCov. If we're unlucky, that's a doomsday scenario. At least it's not an alpha. 

[Toilet Duck]

14 minutes ago, Superscally said:

All we can hope is that it doesn't pull the FIP trick like FCov. If we're unlucky, that's a doomsday scenario. At least it's not an alpha. 

I think if it did, we’d drift back toward MERS territory with people so sick they’d be less likely to pass it on. Maybe? Is FIP prevalent in cats? (Sorry, my knowledge of veterinary virology extends to mice and that’s about it!)...

[steviewevie]

kids and covid19

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/aug/09/what-we-are-learning-about-covid-19-and-kids

[FestivalJamie]

10 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

kids and covid19

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/aug/09/what-we-are-learning-about-covid-19-and-kids

Sounds like primary schools should be ok then but we will need to step up the measures for secondary schools, social distancing, masks, hand sanitiser stations, enhanced cleaning etc.

Can’t say it’s going to be a very fun experiencing for all those going back to school next month.

[steviewevie]

7 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Sounds like primary schools should be ok then but we will need to step up the measures for secondary schools, social distancing, masks, hand sanitiser stations, enhanced cleaning etc.

Can’t say it’s going to be a very fun experiencing for all those going back to school next month.

whatever happens I'm sure the govt and their cheerleaders in the press will try and blame teachers as much as possible.

[Waterdeep]

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.28.225912v2.full.pdf

@Toilet Duck do you have any thoughts on this?

'Most SARS-CoV-2-positive cells were also positive for dsRNA, and rates of double-positive cells counted at 6 hours post-infection followed a pattern that roughly matched the accumulation of progeny (Fig. 1D). The dsRNA staining was seen as clear puncta in SARS-CoV-2-infected cells, in a pattern suggestive of virus factories.'

Does this mean it can replicate in the t cells?

'These findings corroborate previous observations that SARS-CoV enters B lymphocytes and monocyte-derived cells via a FcγRII-dependent pathway, which is facilitated by the presence of antibodies'.

Would this point towards ADE?

[FestivalJamie]

+1062 cases today 🥺

165,176 tests processed.

Where does that put us? Increasing cases or still level!?

[parsonjack]

32 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

+1062 cases today 🥺

165,176 tests processed.

Where does that put us? Increasing cases or still level!?

Bit of a jump from yesterday where the the ratio showed 1 positive case per 240 tests to 1 positive per 155 cases. Highest ratio since last day of June also but trend has been downward last few days so possibly an outlier. 

[Ozanne]

Highest amount of new daily cases since 25th June, which is concerning. 

[FestivalJamie]

Definitely concerning.

1000 has always been my bench mark, if we kept national cases below 1000 daily then I’m comfortable with it, if it’s topping 1000 consistently that’s when I start to panic a bit.

If it’s back down to 700-800 tomorrow then I think I won’t panic just yet, but if it stays consistently at this level or even starts to increase higher that’s when things will start to get even stricter and have to close down again.

Edited August 9, 2020 by FestivalJamie

[FestivalJamie]

10 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Highest amount of new daily cases since 25th June, which is concerning. 

Please post the updated graphs once you have access!

[parsonjack]

8 deaths today....same as last Sunday but total for the week still down overall on previous 7 day period. 

[Chapple12345]

23 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Highest amount of new daily cases since 25th June, which is concerning. 

We've had a huge amount open up since then and admittedly we've seen better* tracing and localised lockdowns so as a one off figure we should be okay, if it continues for the week then we may need to keep an eye on it. It's also important to remember the slight rise in cases has been nowhere near as rapid as in March/April 

*still a shambles but better than it was 

[zahidf]

19 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Definitely concerning.

1000 has always been my bench mark, if we kept national cases below 1000 daily then I’m comfortable with it, if it’s topping 1000 consistently that’s when I start to panic a bit.

If it’s back down to 700-800 tomorrow then I think I won’t panic just yet, but if it stays consistently at this level or even starts to increase higher that’s when things will start to get even stricter and have to close down again.

Panicking won't help tbh. Hospitalizations and deaths are staying down. 

[zahidf]

Ok stupid 

[Toilet Duck]

1 hour ago, Waterdeep said:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.28.225912v2.full.pdf

@Toilet Duck do you have any thoughts on this?

'Most SARS-CoV-2-positive cells were also positive for dsRNA, and rates of double-positive cells counted at 6 hours post-infection followed a pattern that roughly matched the accumulation of progeny (Fig. 1D). The dsRNA staining was seen as clear puncta in SARS-CoV-2-infected cells, in a pattern suggestive of virus factories.'

Does this mean it can replicate in the t cells?

'These findings corroborate previous observations that SARS-CoV enters B lymphocytes and monocyte-derived cells via a FcγRII-dependent pathway, which is facilitated by the presence of antibodies'.

Would this point towards ADE?

Don’t seem to be able to open it, but without reading it, to answer your questions, basically, most viruses will replicate in any cell they can actually get into! In terms of ADE as a major contributor to COVID pathology, I still don’t think the evidence is there to suggest it’s a widespread mechanism. Outside of dengue virus infections, there isn’t much evidence it occurs to a great extent in patients. There’s data from failed vaccine studies in animals for a bunch of infections that show it can happen, but it’s mostly down to sub-optimal antibody production in response to the vaccine (in dengue, it’s down to subsequent infections). There’s a lot of disparate dots being connected to reach a conclusion that ADE is behind severe disease in COVID, but so far, clear evidence from patients is lacking. Could it occur? Sure. Does it occur with any great frequency? No evidence for it at the moment. Is it something vaccine developers need to look out for? Absolutely (though it seems that the leading vaccine candidates generate strong neutralising antibodies that would not be conducive to triggering ADE). 

[Ozanne]

Just now, Chapple12345 said:

We've had a huge amount open up since then and admittedly we've seen better* tracing and localised lockdowns so as a one off figure we should be okay, if it continues for the week then we may need to keep an eye on it. It's also important to remember the slight rise in cases has been nowhere near as rapid as in March/April 

*still a shambles but better than it was 

Sorry I should’ve added that it’s concerning that they are increasing up over 1k whilst we are in summer. Once the summer ends and people are insides more it’ll be tougher to keep this number down. 
 

 

17 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Please post the updated graphs once you have access!

Here you go.