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When will this shit end?

Chrisp1986

By Chrisp1986,
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jparx
jparx

I think on a music festival message board it’s a legitimate question to ask. It doesn’t suggest the OP doesn’t give a shit about anything else. Of course there are much bigger things to be worrie

Toilet Duck
Toilet Duck

So...OX/AZ, blood clots, suspension of vaccinations, politics, vaccine hesitancy, convoluted data, PR problems, Brexit, EU procurement naivety, poor logistics, national identity...there’s an awful lot

Lycra
Lycra

A while since I/we posted because just like everyone else we get fed up of this shit. So just like to say..... For the first time since last March we are free of covid patients 😊

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Crazyfool01 Grand Master

Crazyfool01

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31 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Blog arguing from  Sweden doctor that covid has burnt out in Sweden after 4 months

https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/04/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-perspective/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Interesting reading ... and who am I gonna call ... covid buster @Toilet Duck :) 

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Toilet Duck Rising Star

Toilet Duck

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So, aspects of this disease are proving very difficult for me to explain. It’s an odd one, and then again, maybe it isn’t, maybe it’s a common or garden coronavirus, it just happens to be new (and the 1890 Russian flu was actually a coronavirus outbreak)...but here’s the things that don’t add up in my head. Most people who catch it either don’t even know they have it or have very mild symptoms...why? It’s been suggested that ADE drives the severe infections, but too many people get severe infections for this to be the case (and convalescent antibody therapy doesn’t make things worse, it makes things better, so while ADE may happen the odd time, I don’t think this is the reason)...the other odd aspects of this disease is that asymptomatic people remain highly infectious (I incorrectly told @Matt42 that the virus was not “highly infectious” early on in one of these threads...that was based on an R0 of about 2 as was quoted at the time...but it turns out there is massive variation in the R number (described by a low K number) that wasn’t clear at that stage...so, I was wrong, in certain circumstances (maybe many), it is indeed “highly infectious”)...sorry Matt!

When we do serology surveys, hardly anyone has antibodies (and this is the same for the other common CoVs). This happens time and again and if we don’t check for antibodies within a few weeks of infection...they’re gone.

so, how do we explain all this? I’m slowly coming around to the idea that we will never become “immune” to this virus, we will just become “immune” to more serious disease. I actually think asymptomatic people are already at this stage. And I think it’s all down to our t-cell repertoire. Those with no CoV-targeted t-cells are those who are developing severe disease. The rest can still catch it, pass it on, but never develop serious disease. This will go in for ever if this is the case. So, if all this is true, we are much closer to herd immunity than we think. Not immunity that will stop us from catching it, but immunity from dying from it.

is any of the above true? Dunno. Is it possible? Yes. Are there other explanations? Undoubtedly! 
 

Anyway, I’m rambling...

 

Edit: ha! Was typing this as the above posts came through! Actually feeds nicely into it!

Edited by Toilet Duck
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FestivalJamie Collaborator

FestivalJamie

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2 hours ago, zahidf said:

Blog arguing from  Sweden doctor that covid has burnt out in Sweden after 4 months

https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/04/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-perspective/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Doesn’t line up with cases starting to increase again in the rest of Europe and worldwide.

I reckon Sweden will see a second wave just like the rest of us.

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Toilet Duck Rising Star

Toilet Duck

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30 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Doesn’t line up with cases starting to increase again in the rest of Europe and worldwide.

I reckon Sweden will see a second wave just like the rest of us.

I think the key thing to look out for is how increasing case numbers translate into hospital and ICU admissions...we had a massive spike this week in Ireland (174 cases today...we were as low as 6 a few weeks ago)...3 meat processing plants have had huge outbreaks, and testing everyone in the plants and all their contacts is where practically all these cases have come from. Only 5 were from community transmission...but here’s the thing...80% of cases are under 45 years old and almost all of the cases are asymptomatic. The spike has resulted in regional lockdown in the counties involved, but hospital admissions aren’t massively up over the last few weeks as cases have risen again (though there were 6 ICU admissions this week and we had almost cleared those from the peak)...You are right to be cautious, there’s still a lot of susceptible people out there, but I honestly couldn’t say for sure what will happen in Sweden over the next few months. 

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parsonjack Mentor

parsonjack

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11 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

I think the key thing to look out for is how increasing case numbers translate into hospital and ICU admissions...we had a massive spike this week in Ireland (174 cases today...we were as low as 6 a few weeks ago)...3 meat processing plants have had huge outbreaks, and testing everyone in the plants and all their contacts is where practically all these cases have come from. Only 5 were from community transmission...but here’s the thing...80% of cases are under 45 years old and almost all of the cases are asymptomatic. The spike has resulted in regional lockdown in the counties involved, but hospital admissions aren’t massively up over the last few weeks as cases have risen again (though there were 6 ICU admissions this week and we had almost cleared those from the peak)...You are right to be cautious, there’s still a lot of susceptible people out there, but I honestly couldn’t say for sure what will happen in Sweden over the next few months. 

On the Glastonbury Doomsday Clock (where midnight is a 2021 cancellation) what time are we at compared to a month ago?

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Toilet Duck Rising Star

Toilet Duck

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1 minute ago, parsonjack said:

On the Glastonbury Doomsday Clock (where midnight is a 2021 cancellation) what time are we at compared to a month ago?

I’m still confident! Even with a vaccine, realistically it’ll be a couple of years before we fully emerge from this (assuming the population remains as susceptible as it currently is)...so proactively managing this will have to happen sooner or later, and that should allow more things to proceed safely.

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Suprefan Grand Master

Suprefan

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59 minutes ago, parsonjack said:

On the Glastonbury Doomsday Clock (where midnight is a 2021 cancellation) what time are we at compared to a month ago?

Have to wait for the phase 3 trial data to emerge in a month or 2.

and theres even a challenge vaccine study that might occur. Might not totally be worth it but people are willing to do it. 

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zahidf Grand Master

zahidf

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5 hours ago, FestivalJamie said:

Doesn’t line up with cases starting to increase again in the rest of Europe and worldwide.

I reckon Sweden will see a second wave just like the rest of us.

But the blog isn't talking cases but deaths from it (and as toilet duck says, number of hospitalisations)

If infections increase but deaths aren't, that in theory means its less fatal (from 1% to say 0.4%). Do we think that's because the virus has evolved to be less fatal? In that case, do we then change how we adress it as a society?

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fatyeti24 Collaborator

fatyeti24

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/09/only-half-of-britons-would-definitely-have-covid-19-vaccination

It's not just the virus we have to worry about, it's the idiots.

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The study found vaccine rejection was strongest among those whose beliefs reflect greater scepticism about science and who are less concerned about the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Likely refusal was also linked to those who tended to be less willing to wear face masks and who said they got most of their information about the disease from WhatsApp and other social media outlets.

 

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Superscally Grand Master

Superscally

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9 hours ago, zahidf said:

But the blog isn't talking cases but deaths from it (and as toilet duck says, number of hospitalisations)

If infections increase but deaths aren't, that in theory means its less fatal (from 1% to say 0.4%). Do we think that's because the virus has evolved to be less fatal? In that case, do we then change how we adress it as a society?

We'll be detecting less severe cases these days. Now it's so easy to get a test and it's become less of a strange thing, people go at the first sign of a cough, whereas I'd say earlier people wouldn't do it as freely. I'd like to hope the virus has become less virulent, but I believe the impression is that no significant mutations in that department have occurred. 

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Fuzzy Afro Community Regular

Fuzzy Afro

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, zahidf said:

But the blog isn't talking cases but deaths from it (and as toilet duck says, number of hospitalisations)

If infections increase but deaths aren't, that in theory means its less fatal (from 1% to say 0.4%). Do we think that's because the virus has evolved to be less fatal? In that case, do we then change how we adress it as a society?


Surely a big part of this would be the effects of the treatments that have been approved such as dexamethasone? They’re allowing doctors to save lives that may have passed away in the earlier stages of the pandemic. Not sure if the virus itself is mutating into a more contagious but less fatal form, or if doctors are just getting better at treating it 

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FestivalJamie Collaborator

FestivalJamie

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Given the worldwide death toll is back on the rise again, I would say there is no evidence that the virus has mutated into a less deadly strain.

Given that a lot of the deaths are coming from Brazil, India and Mexico, their supplies and access to dexamethasone is probably more scarce than in the UK. But a worldwide daily rise of +5612 deaths yesterday shows that this virus is no less deadly and horrible than it has been the whole time.

One can hope that at some point the virus mutates into a less severe strain or we have a new treatment approved which is better than dexamethasone, but for now vigilance is still key, it’s still circulating and it’s unfortunately just as deadly as it was before.

With regards to Sweden, i don’t know why their cases and deaths have dropped, I know some would argue they have achieved “herd immunity”, but our death rate has been worse than theirs and ONS suggests only 6%? Of the UK have had the virus, so I’d say herd immunity for Sweden is near impossible at this point, unless they’ve truly infected way more people than their numbers allow to admit.

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