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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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8 hours ago, whitehorses said:

Just watched ‘Race against the virus‘. Now feeling optimistic. 

How was it? I forgot it was on. 

Surrey Uni is asking for volunteers for the Imperial one: https://crc.surrey.ac.uk/volunteers/register-volunteer

And I came across this yesterday regarding the Oxford vaccine as there’s a job going at Pirbright Institute that I’m no way near intelligent or qualified enough for: https://www.pirbright.ac.uk/news/2020/06/studies-pirbright-demonstrate-two-doses-oxford-university’s-covid-19-vaccine-boosts

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14 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

How was it? I forgot it was on. 

Surrey Uni is asking for volunteers for the Imperial one: https://crc.surrey.ac.uk/volunteers/register-volunteer

And I came across this yesterday regarding the Oxford vaccine as there’s a job going at Pirbright Institute that I’m no way near intelligent or qualified enough for: https://www.pirbright.ac.uk/news/2020/06/studies-pirbright-demonstrate-two-doses-oxford-university’s-covid-19-vaccine-boosts

It was good. It basically followed three or four key researchers in their vaccine efforts and highlighted global collaborations.
 

Although the main Oxford lady was cautious throughout it was obvious they are really busting their bits to get this done. Beyond that it was stuff we already know via Toilet Duck - just packaged well in this programme. 
 

Rooting for Oxford! Get us to Glasto you clever w*nkers 

 

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I mean, Friday is four months since the Prime Minister was in genuine danger of death in an ICU, at a time when deaths were about 50 times higher than they were now (and still rising), we were only managing 14k tests per day, nothing was open, and we were allowed out once per day

The govt obviously fucked up earlier in the year, but things are better than they were 

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It’s a genuine scandal that PHE are getting away with reporting dozens of community deaths every day that happened a long time ago. That makes people feel that we are actually in a worse position now than we truly are.

 

Unless of course people choose to believe that 89 people died from Covid in the UK yesterday and 82 of those weren’t in hospital. 

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6 minutes ago, zahidf said:

I mean, Friday is four months since the Prime Minister was in genuine danger of death in an ICU, at a time when deaths were about 50 times higher than they were now (and still rising), we were only managing 14k tests per day, nothing was open, and we were allowed out once per day

The govt obviously fucked up earlier in the year, but things are better than they were 

Steady on dear, that’s a little too much of a positive take on the situation! 
Granted there’s still a lot of uncertainty and vagueness around what’s going on  but we need to remember just how far we’ve come as both a country and the world with the virus with regards to cases and opening up again

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16 minutes ago, zahidf said:

I mean, Friday is four months since the Prime Minister was in genuine danger of death in an ICU, at a time when deaths were about 50 times higher than they were now (and still rising), we were only managing 14k tests per day, nothing was open, and we were allowed out once per day

The govt obviously fucked up earlier in the year, but things are better than they were 

No ones arguing that things haven’t improved. 

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3 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

It’s a genuine scandal that PHE are getting away with reporting dozens of community deaths every day that happened a long time ago. That makes people feel that we are actually in a worse position now than we truly are.

 

Unless of course people choose to believe that 89 people died from Covid in the UK yesterday and 82 of those weren’t in hospital. 

The whole reporting has been a farce, allowing different days to be reported differently like the low reported deaths on Monday and then suddenly a surge on the Tuesday, I believe last week there was a case where someone had died in March and it was only just reported

Correct me if I’m wrong but aren’t they now reviewing deaths to make sure that only people who have died directly are counted? For example if someone is diagnosed with it, makes a full recovery and then died in a car crash a few months later they’d still be counted in the figures even if they hadn’t been in ICU

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20 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

The whole reporting has been a farce, allowing different days to be reported differently like the low reported deaths on Monday and then suddenly a surge on the Tuesday, I believe last week there was a case where someone had died in March and it was only just reported

Correct me if I’m wrong but aren’t they now reviewing deaths to make sure that only people who have died directly are counted? For example if someone is diagnosed with it, makes a full recovery and then died in a car crash a few months later they’d still be counted in the figures even if they hadn’t been in ICU

Some countries have 28 days after as the cut-off point. Some don't have a cut off point like us

 

Tbh I don't thibk there are loads of car accident victims being counted as dying of covid

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23 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

The whole reporting has been a farce, allowing different days to be reported differently like the low reported deaths on Monday and then suddenly a surge on the Tuesday, I believe last week there was a case where someone had died in March and it was only just reported

Correct me if I’m wrong but aren’t they now reviewing deaths to make sure that only people who have died directly are counted? For example if someone is diagnosed with it, makes a full recovery and then died in a car crash a few months later they’d still be counted in the figures even if they hadn’t been in ICU

just look at the ons figures that are usually released a week late, this graph shows the difference

 

 

EekIhr1XgAUNRdk.png

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9 minutes ago, pryce said:

just look at the ons figures that are usually released a week late, this graph shows the difference

 

 

EekIhr1XgAUNRdk.png

That’s disgusting. People are still too scared to leave their homes because of the numbers they’re reporting every day which aren’t a true representation of the current situation. Scandalous. 

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47 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Some countries have 28 days after as the cut-off point. Some don't have a cut off point like us

 

Tbh I don't thibk there are loads of car accident victims being counted as dying of covid


 

That’s certainly not the case, however you have to consider:

 

- 1% of the UK population would routinely die each year regardless of the pandemic. Let’s pretend covid didn’t kill anybody at all, and assume that 6% of the UK population has had the virus so far. That’s still c.39,000 deaths expected out of people who have had the virus. Therefore it follows that plenty of people who have tested positive at some point will have died of something else (cancer, old age etc) 

 

edit: Above is a mistake. I was counting 6% from the antibody studied but it’s only around 0.5% that have actually tested positive.

 

- The great problem here isn’t some gross overestimation of the death toll, but simply that the curve has been less flattened than we are being led to believe. We are being led to believe the peak was 950-1000 deaths per day and that 75-100 people are still dying every day. In actual fact, the peak was significantly higher, and only a handful of people are dying now.

 

That latter point leads people to erroneously believe that we should still be in lockdown (IIRC, 74 people died on the day we locked down, so people see yesterday’s 89 and think we are in worse shape than on 23rd March), when I’m actual fact, we are reporting very few deaths that are actually happening now, and are reporting a big catch up of old deaths

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1 hour ago, Chapple12345 said:

Correct me if I’m wrong but aren’t they now reviewing deaths to make sure that only people who have died directly are counted? For example if someone is diagnosed with it, makes a full recovery and then died in a car crash a few months later they’d still be counted in the figures even if they hadn’t been in ICU

Bonkers, no one is being reported as dead “due to covid” if they died in a car crash. Yes some people may be dying after the “28 day cut off” with the disease but that could be due to a relapse/resurgence in symptoms which are worse than the first. As I’ve said before no one knows the long term effects of the body from this virus and therefore having a 28 day cut off is ridiculous as it’s not like everyone infected who dies will die within a 28 day margin, some people could be fighting in ICU or hospital with symptoms for weeks on end, and then could have a relapse of symptoms just when they think they are getting better. As I’ve said before, I’ve heard it first hand from a relative, not who’s been in hospital, but who has been experiencing symptom relapses. None of us know the effects on the body of this virus and I don’t believe deaths are being Mis-reported like people like to make out.

In comparison, spain has not reported 16,000 deaths in its official figures. Id rather we were transparent in our figures compared to other countries like Russia and Spain and Iran. At least we are honest.

Where the mis-reporting comes is some of these deaths being announced now happened months ago, but are being put on the daily tally now, when they should have been announced on the day they happened. I don’t know what the cause of that was, but I reckon it’s to make it look like the peak daily deaths of the virus were no where near as bad as it actually was. A daily increase of 89 yesterday shows us that they still have 89 deaths excess to report back from April/May time, which shows you our peak of the outbreak was far far worse than what they actually reported. It’s like how we cancelled all cancer patients treatments during the height of the outbreak just so we didn’t have photos in the media of hospitals being overwhelmed like they did in Italy.

Regardless, all the deaths which have been reported so far are due to covid, which is completely tragic. But the reporting is backlogged, so deaths yesterday in reality due to the virus were maybe around 20-30 but is reported as 89 because we failed to report a lot of deaths which happened during the peak of the outbreak. For example the UK Gov reported a maximum daily deaths of just over 1000 during the peak whereas in reality ONS says it was more like 1700, so we are now playing “catch up” to report all of the deaths we failed to report back at the peak of the outbreak.

Regardless, it’s tragic that all of these people died due to covid, and people have right to be concerned and want to stay at home because this virus is so deadly and could have serious long term health effects, just look at what’s happening in Spain now, a daily increase of 5760 cases yesterday, there’s no reason to say that the UK will escape the same path of a second wave, especially when Spain actually has stricter imposed measures than the UK.

Edited by FestivalJamie
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9 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

- The great problem here isn’t some gross overestimation of the death toll, but simply that the curve has been less flattened than we are being led to believe. We are being led to believe the peak was 950-1000 deaths per day and that 75-100 people are still dying every day. In actual fact, the peak was significantly higher, and only a handful of people are dying now.

 

That latter point leads people to erroneously believe that we should still be in lockdown (IIRC, 74 people died on the day we locked down, so people see yesterday’s 89 and think we are in worse shape than on 23rd March), when I’m actual fact, we are reporting very few deaths that are actually happening now, and are reporting a big catch up of old deaths

Spot on and what I was trying to explain in my post. The total deaths which have happened due to this virus are being genuinely reported, but just in a fashion that makes it look like the peak was lower but it’s taken us longer to get the average down, when in reality the peak was far far higher, devastatingly higher, but the average has come down much faster like in other european countries.

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1 minute ago, FestivalJamie said:

Bonkers, no one is being reported as dead “due to covid” if they died in a car crash. Yes some people may be dying after the “28 day cut off” with the disease but that could be due to a relapse/resurgence in symptoms which are worse than the first. As I’ve said before no one knows the long term effects of the body from this virus and therefore having a 28 day cut off is ridiculous as it’s not like everyone infected who dies will die within a 28 day margin, some people could be fighting in ICU or hospital with symptoms for weeks on end, and then could have a relapse of symptoms just when they think they are getting better. As I’ve said before, I’ve heard it first hand from a relative, not who’s been in hospital, but who has been experiencing symptom relapses. None of us know the effects on the body of this virus and I don’t believe deaths are being Mis-reported like people like to make out.

In comparison, spain has not reported 16,000 deaths in its official figures. Id rather we were transparent in our figures compared to other countries like Russia and Spain and Iran. At least we are honest.

Where the mis-reporting comes is some of these deaths being announced now happened months ago, but are being put on the daily tally now, when they should have been announced on the day they happened. I don’t know what the cause of that was, but I reckon it’s to make it look like the peak daily deaths of the virus were no where near as bad as it actually was. A daily increase of 89 yesterday shows us that they still have 89 deaths excess to report back from April/May time, which shows you our peak of the outbreak was far far worse than what they actually reported. It’s like how we cancelled all cancer patients treatments during the height of the outbreak just so we didn’t have photos in the media of hospitals being overwhelmed like they did in Spain.

Regardless, all the deaths which have been reported so far are due to covid, which is completely tragic. But the reporting is backlogged, so deaths yesterday in reality due to the virus were maybe around 20-30 but is reported as 89 because we failed to report a lot of deaths which happened during the peak of the outbreak. For example the UK Gov reported a maximum daily deaths of just over 1000 during the peak whereas in reality ONS says it was more like 1700, so we are now playing “catch up” to report all of the deaths we failed to report back at the peak of the outbreak.

Regardless, it’s tragic that all of these people died due to covid, and people have right to be concerned and want to stay at home because this virus is so deadly and could have serious long term health effects, just look at what’s happening in Spain now, a daily increase of 5760 cases yesterday, there’s no reason to say that the UK will escape the same path of a second wave, especially when Spain actually has stricter imposed measures than the UK.


 

The bolded is simply not true. Over 300,000 people have tested positive in the UK. That means that, even excluding the pandemic, roughly 3,000 of these would die in any given year. PHE are reporting all deaths of anyone who has ever tested positive, regardless of the cause.

 

I am certainly not suggesting there’s been a sudden spate of people being hit by buses after testing positive, but it’s equally unrealistic to suggest that none of the 300k will have died from non covid related causes 

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