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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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19 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

I know an ICU Doctor who was explaining that they now have MUCH better treatments and actual procedures to follow which are improving survival rates. Back in April they were, basically, trying something different on everyone and seeing what worked. 

You can kind of see this in the USA with their much bigger 2nd wave (wave 1b?) of cases but no where near as many deaths (still too high though)

That situation will improve even further in the next 6 months. 

If we can greatly reduce the mortality that's the first step to getting back to "normal".

Then as others have said effective testing and tracing should keep cases low.

I'd be cautious in attributing too much of the "low" death rate in the US to improved medicine. Remember there's a significant lag between cases and deaths. Deaths are still very much on the up at the moment.

 

 

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1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Toilet duck, out of curiosity, what's the deal with those 90 min covid tests the govt are touting? Overhyped or actually useful?

They’re actually pretty clever. Normal PCR basically just gives you a positive/negative result, the nanopore assay actually sequences the DNA/RNA, so it can tell you if it’s a coronavirus, or flu, or another respiratory virus. Useful for healthcare settings to get quick turnaround results, not something you can walk into a chemist and have done while you wait though (or indeed, do yourself at home). I didn’t realise it was ready yet, but it’s among a whole host of innovative testing solutions I’ve seen. Expect lots more developments in testing...until we have a vaccine or a cure, knowing where the virus is and what it is doing is our best defence (plus masks, Hand hygiene, some social distancing etc)...

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8 hours ago, Toilet Duck said:

Saying you will and actually doing it are two different things. Ozzie style quarantine was nonsense,

Do you mean from a scientific perspective or from a logistical/operational one? (or maybe both)

Noting that there were inconsistencies in the testing from state to state (as well as competency of the security) I’d have thought the quarantine goes hand in hand with the testing when you are talking about travellers and introducing new sources of infection into the population.

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2 minutes ago, Gregfc15 said:

Do you mean from a scientific perspective or from a logistical/operational one? (or maybe both)

Noting that there were inconsistencies in the testing from state to state (as well as competency of the security) I’d have thought the quarantine goes hand in hand with the testing when you are talking about travellers and introducing new sources of infection into the population.

As a Melbourne resident and someone that quarantined, the situation that Melbourne is in right now is really frustrating. I got back just before the hotel quarantine, so did two weeks in the spare room. I was quite happy to do that as I recognised that I was a risk, but it was reported at the time that many people were ignoring the rules and going out, despite having arrived from hotspot countries. So it seemed sensible to me to put all returning travellers in to hotel quarantine. 

For those who haven't heard, it is alleged that some of the quarantined returning travellers and the quarantine security guards fraternised in a way that wouldn't be considered appropriate for a PG film. A few months down the line and Melbourne is back in a stage four lockdown (we only got to stage three in the first wave), with all cases (normally 400-500 a day at the moment) traceable back to the security guards. While there are definitely questions to be asked about the quality of guard, I don't doubt for a second that hotel quarantine was the right way to go. 

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Yeah, I’d agree as well which is why I’m keen to hear if there is any scientific consensus against it.   

From a Singapore perspective,  the 2nd wave kicked off with returning travellers (citizens and expats)and they are still represented in the daily stats now. It’s obviously not a punitive policy, but it seems mental to ask everyone to lockdown and sacrifice to disrupt community spread whilst you are still introducing new cases back into the community through returning travellers. (unless you have that gold standard tracing!) As an Aussie expat, I’ve got plenty of gripes with the flight caps and quarantine payments back home, but the need to do it, with people being tested throughout and before release seems obvious.

Hope you are doing ok in Melbourne. Watching home closely with concern for friends and family and seeing what has happened is a massive kick in the guts, albeit without having to go through it. It’s rocked my faith in any medium term end to this.

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Now I'm not from Western Australia but with my Sister and Bro-in-Law living out there I keep an eye on how they're doing.

I just love the simplicity of how they release the details of covid issues, see below for instance:

 

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1 hour ago, Gregfc15 said:

Do you mean from a scientific perspective or from a logistical/operational one? (or maybe both)

Noting that there were inconsistencies in the testing from state to state (as well as competency of the security) I’d have thought the quarantine goes hand in hand with the testing when you are talking about travellers and introducing new sources of infection into the population.

I mean from an operational perspective. Scientifically, it’s sound, but then you have to properly test everyone and actually quarantine them (ie, they don’t leave the room) and having folk jumping fences and absconding and a whole host of other reported happenings just negates the whole thing...I guess the ensuing enquiry will shed some light on things, but clusters emerging in quarantine hotels means something wasn’t done correctly  (I’m surprised to be honest. I once went from Sydney to Brisbane and forgot I had grapes with me to munch on the way...jaysus...probably would have gotten less grief if I had a bag of class A’s!...I’ve always found border security in Oz pretty tight with no messing about at all, so someone somewhere messed the whole thing up)...

 

edit: oh, and there can be no exception to quarantine, no matter what the situation, or else you are vulnerable again, so compassionate grounds aren’t really possible (hence the whole thing becomes untenable...so advance testing is probably better than what can be realistically maintained...and it has to be maintained until the virus is gone from everywhere)...

Edited by Toilet Duck
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24 minutes ago, Waterdeep said:

It'll be less dangerous than the flu?

When the vaccines are rolled out, yes. I'd say, even with just the Oxford vaccine widely deployed. Obviously, if Professor Duck disagrees then I'll reconsider, I know my limits!

Of course, whilst we're vaccineless, it's completely different. I'm not one of these "the flu is worse" crazies.

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37 minutes ago, Waterdeep said:

It'll be less dangerous than the flu?

To clarify why I say this, influenza and coronaviruses both have issues in keeping the population immunised. With influenza, rapid mutation means that prior vaccinations and old vaccines are no longer effective. With coronaviruses, whilst they do not mutate rapidly, immunity is not long lived. My reading of this is that prior vaccinations, but not old vaccines are no longer effective.  That means that unlike the annual scramble to develop a new variant of influenza vaccine, we can simply redeploy our existing vaccines, whilst unlikely to stamp it out entirely, bringing the levels of COVID disease well below those of influenza.

@Toilet Duck - am I being over optimistic here? I was thinking it would end up being a bigger ongoing problem than measles long term, but less than the flu?

Edited by stuartbert two hats
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17 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

When the vaccines are rolled out, yes. I'd say, even with just the Oxford vaccine widely deployed. Obviously, if Professor Duck disagrees then I'll reconsider, I know my limits!

Of course, whilst we're vaccineless, it's completely different. I'm not one of these "the flu is worse" crazies.

Ah ok I get ya! Yeah hopefully when vaccines get going it'll be a different story.

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9 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

When's the next big date in regards to vaccination testing results etc?

Is it another couple of months?

Basically around September, though obviously as its an ongoing process, it could be shorter if it definitely doesn't work

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13 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

When the vaccines are rolled out, yes. I'd say, even with just the Oxford vaccine widely deployed. Obviously, if Professor Duck disagrees then I'll reconsider, I know my limits!

Of course, whilst we're vaccineless, it's completely different. I'm not one of these "the flu is worse" crazies.

Interestingly, one of the last human coronaviruses emerged towards the end of the 19th century. It’s still in circulation and is one of the ones that causes the common cold. At the same time, the “Russian flu” happened and killed at least 1 million people globally. Whether it was flu or the emergence of a new CoV is hard to know (evidence for flu comes from the presence of antibodies to it in older people who were tested in the 60s, evidence for CoV comes from the fact it likely emerged from cattle and there was a massive, decade-long pneumonia outbreak in cattle at the same time)...so, it’s entirely possible that one of the CoVs that now causes nothing but mild discomfort had similarly catastrophic consequences when it first emerged. Based on the role of t-cell mediated immunity in controlling CoV infections, it’s possible that this one sweeps around the world and eventually ends up only causing only mild infections once everyone has had it or a different CoV. 
 

Is the above true? I’ve no idea! It’s no more fanciful than other things I’ve seen and we don’t have samples from the 1890 “flu” outbreak to make certain...at some point these other CoVs entered circulation and we didn’t have the molecular capabilities to attribute it to respiratory diseases of unknown origin. But if the virus is to survive, it has to adapt in some way...SARS and MERS didn’t make it (for reasons we don’t entirely understand)...what happens with this one is anyone’s guess! 

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15 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

To clarify why I say this, influenza and coronaviruses both have issues in keeping the population immunised. With influenza, rapid mutation means that prior vaccinations and old vaccines are no longer effective. With coronaviruses, whilst they do not mutate rapidly, immunity is not long lived. My reading of this is that prior vaccinations, but not old vaccines are no longer effective.  That means that unlike the annual scramble to develop a new variant of influenza vaccine, we can simply redeploy our existing vaccines, whilst unlikely to stamp it out entirely, bringing the levels of COVID disease well below those of influenza.

@Toilet Duck - am I being over optimistic here? I was thinking it would end up being a bigger ongoing problem than measles long term, but less than the flu?

The immune response to CoVs is getting a lot more attention now. Previously, immunologists weren’t all that interested in it. It just caused a cold! So really, we are only finding out how it works. My gut feeling is that T-cells pay a huge role in the severity of disease (I know others have suggested ADE, but I don’t see the evidence for that yet, while evidence on t-cell responses is mounting (albeit not definitively linked to disease severity yet))...but yes, if repeated doses of vaccine are required, then it should just be a boost and not a newly designed vaccine each year. 

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18 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

The immune response to CoVs is getting a lot more attention now. Previously, immunologists weren’t all that interested in it. It just caused a cold! So really, we are only finding out how it works. My gut feeling is that T-cells pay a huge role in the severity of disease (I know others have suggested ADE, but I don’t see the evidence for that yet, while evidence on t-cell responses is mounting (albeit not definitively linked to disease severity yet))...but yes, if repeated doses of vaccine are required, then it should just be a boost and not a newly designed vaccine each year. 

And where do you think it will end up in severity vs other infections?

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Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

And where do you think it will end up in severity vs other infections?

Eventually, I think it will cause a common cold and be one of the circulating CoVs. How long it takes to get there without our help is the big question. A vaccine accelerates things significantly. This is just a guess, nobody really knows. I’m just looking at the biology and thinking that it makes most sense...what type of damage it does in asymptomatic individuals is another big unknown, so still lots to figure out!

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