When will this shit end?

[Crazyfool01]

16 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

Fits well with this ...  

 

 

[shoptildrop]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/breaking-major-incident-declared-greater-18704165

Oh great!!

I'm in Tameside and I bet the rise is from the fast n furious car meet in the area 2 weeks ago, errrgggghhh 

[steviewevie]

37 minutes ago, shoptildrop said:

Oh great!!

I'm in Tameside and I bet the rise is from the fast n furious car meet in the area 2 weeks ago, errrgggghhh 

seems to be a rise in whole region, probably can't pin it on one thing...but the car meet certainly wouldn't have helped.

[shoptildrop]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

seems to be a rise in whole region, probably can't pin it on one thing...but the car meet certainly wouldn't have helped.

It's just in the article it called out Manchester, Tameside and Oldham

For sure car meet won't of helped as there were loads of them!! End of day Manchester is a big place and we have a lot of movement through work alone in the region, throw in the airport and everything opening up it was inevitable we would see a rise in cases... I just hope they don't reflect in deaths but with the rise of infections in younger folk this might mean less deaths

Edited August 2, 2020 by shoptildrop

[dotdash79]

Would be helpful if track and trace could do some analysis on what settings the contacts happen. I mean it’s not like it’s meant to be world beating or the government special advisor it a self appointed “data geek”

[Euphoricape]

Beginning to have my doubts festival's will be back next year.. virus is just not going away is it..? Unless there's a vaccine there's no chance is there? Until recently I was feeling really confident that by next year we would be in a far better place. Can anyone change my mind?

[zahidf]

Believe it when I see it...

[Ryan1984]

8 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

Beginning to have my doubts festival's will be back next year.. virus is just not going away is it..? Unless there's a vaccine there's no chance is there? Until recently I was feeling really confident that by next year we would be in a far better place. Can anyone change my mind?

Sounds like another one for @Toilet Duck. With all these rises, how confident are you we’ll be on the farm in 10 months’ time?

[Chapple12345]

5 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

Beginning to have my doubts festival's will be back next year.. virus is just not going away is it..? Unless there's a vaccine there's no chance is there? Until recently I was feeling really confident that by next year we would be in a far better place. Can anyone change my mind?

Whilst this is far more deadly and infectious, as a society we've learnt how to live and adapt to countless other viruses and illnesses and I have no doubt we will with this too. Will we ever find a vaccine? Only time will tell, but to know as much as we do now after only 8 months of it being discovered and with a lot more to undoubtedly be discovered in the coming months and years I'm sure we will find a way around it and society will find its 'new normal' soon

[FestivalJamie]

I guess we just don’t know at this point. We have no clue what this autumn is going to look like, let alone next summer.

If the virus is still as prevalent as it is now next summer then I guess day festivals could always go ahead with socially distanced seating and mask wearing. Not sure how camping festivals would work given hygiene is seriously compromised with people sharing toilets etc. Might encourage festivals to install some proper posh toilets throughout the sight and not just in the glamping areas.

Would be the end of mosh pits and the like though.

 

[stuartbert two hats]

3 hours ago, zahidf said:

 

Matt haig is a bit of an idiot.

He's written some cracking novels though.

[stuartbert two hats]

Doubting we're going to ever get a vaccine just isn't backed up by the data coming out of these trials. There are so many candidate vaccines in development and the very first one (Oxford) looks like it's going to turn COVID into a pussycat.

We're good.

[FestivalJamie]

3 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Doubting we're going to ever get a vaccine just isn't backed up by the data coming out of these trials. There are so many candidate vaccines in development and the very first one (Oxford) looks like it's going to turn COVID into a pussycat.

We're good.

But how many people have to take the vaccine for it to be effective?

Mass distribution is going to be time consuming and if consumption isn’t high enough, the virus could spread throughout the community who aren’t vaccinated causing the NHS to be overwhelmed and a reintroduction of restrictions.

I know a lot of people who are sceptical of taking such a rushed vaccine, no one knows side effects or the like. I certainly won’t be taking the Russian one should it surface by October.

I think we’re stuck with living with the virus for quite a bit longer. Restrictions can’t be lifted worldwide until it’s absolutely safe to do so, hopefully that will be next year but that’s an optimistic scenario.

[stuartbert two hats]

3 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

But how many people have to take the vaccine for it to be effective?

Mass distribution is going to be time consuming and if consumption isn’t high enough, the virus could spread throughout the community who aren’t vaccinated causing the NHS to be overwhelmed and a reintroduction of restrictions.

I know a lot of people who are sceptical of taking such a rushed vaccine, no one knows side effects or the like. I certainly won’t be taking the Russian one should it surface by October.

I think we’re stuck with living with the virus for quite a bit longer. Restrictions can’t be lifted worldwide until it’s absolutely safe to do so, hopefully that will be next year but that’s an optimistic scenario.

But most people can and will be vaccinated. It's much more genetically stable than influenza, so will genuinely be less dangerous than the flu next year. It's still going to be a problem until we get a vaccine that prevents infection rather than just disease, but enough people are going to be protected that the NHS will not be overwhelmed. Glasto is on.

[Toilet Duck]

1 hour ago, Ryan1984 said:

Sounds like another one for @Toilet Duck. With all these rises, how confident are you we’ll be on the farm in 10 months’ time?

I’m still confident!

Basically, there are 3 things that can happen that shift things back towards normal...(1) a vaccine (or vaccines). On this front, things look promising.. the Oxford vaccine and the GSK/Sanofi one have much longer safety data available compared to Moderna or Pfizer’s ones and have fewer hurdles to approval, so they remain the front runners at the moment (though emergency use designation from the FDA for the US vaccines isn’t beyond the realms of possibility, I’d be surprised if the EMA approve them as quickly)...there are a ton of others in the works, all of them failing is unlikely (HIV is frequently cited as an example of vaccine failure, but it’s a different kettle of fish entirely)...so, expect a vaccine at some stage...

(2) a big jump in treatment options. There have been some significant advances on this front, many that are having big impacts on outcomes haven’t been publicised as much as things like hydroxychloroquine or remdesivir, but the use of anticoagulants and dexamethasone, even things like keeping patients prone to aid breathing are really are reducing deaths and hospitalisation time. Since focus has been on repurposing existing drugs (for the sake of expediency), it’s not altogether unsurprising that we don’t have a blockbuster treatment yet, but there are CoV-specific agents in trials that really would change things utterly if they work. Both of the above things (Vaccine and treatment) need a bit of luck and would have a massive impact on how we deal with the virus...

(3) the third thing is testing. This will improve and become logistically easier, but even now, nothing has to change for this to be the cornerstone of how we start to do things we did before all of this started (and this is one big reason I’m confident, since nothing need change for this to occur)...The standard PCR test, while a little cumbersome, is a doddle to do (I’ve done 10s of 1000s of them in my time...undergrads in the lab for a few weeks do them (ok, not to approved lab standard, but it’s not rocket science)). There is an entire diagnostics industry waiting in the wings to be allowed to contribute to private testing in order to facilitate higher risk activities. If the PCR test remains the only one we can use, then it can still be performed privately, but turnaround times would be the main difficulty. There are other tests that will make it a whole lot easier too. The ID Now one can be done in Boots, but we need better validation data on it, the RT-LAMP based tests are also dead simple and work from spit rather than a swab (and there are versions of these that can be done anywhere with just a heating block...takes about 30 minutes to get a result) and there’s a bunch of others that give rapid results at advanced stages...so, while a pain in the arse, it’s not impossible to get a test a week before and a second one a day before any pre-plannned activity where you want to limit the number of infected people attending (be it going to a festival, getting a flight, going to a gig, hell, even having a night out in a club...ok, spontaneity suffers, you need to know at least a week before that you plan on going somewhere, but if all it takes is a quick gob in a test tube, then it’s not that big a deal for a while)...the key to advance testing is having a reasonably well controlled spread of virus in the community...if there isn’t much of it about, and you test everyone who attends an event, then the number of false negatives that slip through the net wouldn’t massively impact the level of risk associated with it...we don’t test people going to the shops or restaurants, but they are still allowed...so if everyone at Glasto has two negative tests, the second one the day before they enter, then it could run pretty close to normal inside the fence. To be honest, based on the standard disease progression, I’d cut the festival to Fri/Sat/Sun to lower the risk even more (almost everyone with a false negative test on Thursday would still not be infectious yet by Monday morning)...I fully expect advance testing to be required for air travel pretty soon (air bridges don’t work if you don’t actually quarantine people coming from high risk places...saying you will and actually doing it are two different things. Ozzie style quarantine was nonsense, Chinese style essentially prison for two weeks...so it doesn’t work. Testing is the only answer). 

tldr: yes, I’m confident, but we’ll probably need to fork out for a test before we go!

Edited August 2, 2020 by Toilet Duck

[FestivalJamie]

11 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

But most people can and will be vaccinated. It's much more genetically stable than influenza, so will genuinely be less dangerous than the flu next year. It's still going to be a problem until we get a vaccine that prevents infection rather than just disease, but enough people are going to be protected that the NHS will not be overwhelmed. Glasto is on.

As I said a lot of people I know are not willing to take a vaccine which has been so rushed to be put together. Similarly as we currently don’t know long term implications of covid we won’t know long term side effects of the vaccine until people start showing them down the line.

I just cannot share your optimism at this point, I’ll be optimistic once the global health situation is better.

I just can’t see myself at festivals next year regardless. So many people, so little personal space and hygiene normally goes out of the window. I don’t think I’m gonna be able to get back to what I love for a long time... the world is changed to me now 😔

[zahidf]

 

 

[zahidf]

 

Independent SAGE are such a joke

[incident]

22 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

But how many people have to take the vaccine for it to be effective?

Define effective.

At an individual level? 1 person.

To effectively eliminate COVID19 from the UK? Sure, a pretty high percentage.

To allow gigs, festivals, etc to go ahead? It won't be based on how many people have taken it. It'll be based on how many people have been offered it. There'll come a point, pretty quickly after vaccine has been offered to everyone, that people who've chosen not to have it will be at their own risk. The government is obviously keen to get back to normal as quickly as possible, and so I can't see any chance they're going to allow this to be held up by recusants.

[zahidf]

10 minutes ago, incident said:

Define effective.

At an individual level? 1 person.

To effectively eliminate COVID19 from the UK? Sure, a pretty high percentage.

To allow gigs, festivals, etc to go ahead? It won't be based on how many people have taken it. It'll be based on how many people have been offered it. There'll come a point, pretty quickly after vaccine has been offered to everyone, that people who've chosen not to have it will be at their own risk. The government is obviously keen to get back to normal as quickly as possible, and so I can't see any chance they're going to allow this to be held up by recusants.

Basically it's a free vaccine against covid. I expect most people will comply.

[zahidf]

17 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

As I said a lot of people I know are not willing to take a vaccine which has been so rushed to be put together. Similarly as we currently don’t know long term implications of covid we won’t know long term side effects of the vaccine until people start showing them down the line.

I just cannot share your optimism at this point, I’ll be optimistic once the global health situation is better.

I just can’t see myself at festivals next year regardless. So many people, so little personal space and hygiene normally goes out of the window. I don’t think I’m gonna be able to get back to what I love for a long time... the world is changed to me now 😔

sorry to hear that. But I think generally, people will be more careful hygiene wise in terms of washing hands e.t.c. I'm fine going out now. Virus prevalence is relatively low, so willing to take the risk 

[FestivalJamie]

9 minutes ago, zahidf said:

sorry to hear that. But I think generally, people will be more careful hygiene wise in terms of washing hands e.t.c. I'm fine going out now. Virus prevalence is relatively low, so willing to take the risk 

Hand washing is insignificant to me. Boris told us all to “wash our hands” back in March and it didn’t stop a virus outbreak(don’t get me wrong I think it’s important to keep hands clean but it’s not stopping a nasty virus). The thing which controls the spread of disease is fundamentally the physical distancing and mask wearing. You don’t get that at clubs, festivals, concerts etc.

Let alone covid I just don’t want to get sick with any illnesses or viruses, I feel like festivals are hotbeds for these sorts of things to spread, I remember getting really sick after my first ever weekend at reading festival, not so fun.

I don’t think I’d be comfortable sharing portaloos anymore either really, but I hate camping anyway and normally opt to stay in an Airbnb for festivals when they are more than one day (what I did for sziget) so I wouldn’t necessarily have to use the bathroom facilities there anyway.

Hopefully I can get back one day, music is something I truly love and going to concerts and hearing live music kept me sane and kept me happy, but now going to a festival would just make me stressed and uncomfortable, so kind of has turned my world upside down. 🙃

Edited August 2, 2020 by FestivalJamie

[DeanoL]

 

27 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

As I said a lot of people I know are not willing to take a vaccine which has been so rushed to be put together. Similarly as we currently don’t know long term implications of covid we won’t know long term side effects of the vaccine until people start showing them down the line.

I just cannot share your optimism at this point, I’ll be optimistic once the global health situation is better.

I just can’t see myself at festivals next year regardless. So many people, so little personal space and hygiene normally goes out of the window. I don’t think I’m gonna be able to get back to what I love for a long time... the world is changed to me now 😔

That fair enough, and I may be in a similar position myself to be honest. But equally, just because people like us might not be willing to go take the vaccine just to get into festivals, plenty of people will. Enough people to keep the festival and live music industry alive I'd wager. So they'll still be there when we feel comfortable going again. But yeah there's no getting around the fact that we can't know the long term consequences of a vaccine for sure until the long term has passed, so that's 5-10 years. So at some points decisons will have to be made as to what we do. For many, work requirements will make those decisions for them I'd imagine - I might be willing to skip Glastonbury to stay a bit safer but I'm not willing to quit my job.

[zahidf]

Toilet duck, out of curiosity, what's the deal with those 90 min covid tests the govt are touting? Overhyped or actually useful?

[Leyrulion]

2 hours ago, Euphoricape said:

Beginning to have my doubts festival's will be back next year.. virus is just not going away is it..? Unless there's a vaccine there's no chance is there? Until recently I was feeling really confident that by next year we would be in a far better place. Can anyone change my mind?

I know an ICU Doctor who was explaining that they now have MUCH better treatments and actual procedures to follow which are improving survival rates. Back in April they were, basically, trying something different on everyone and seeing what worked. 

You can kind of see this in the USA with their much bigger 2nd wave (wave 1b?) of cases but no where near as many deaths (still too high though)

That situation will improve even further in the next 6 months. 

If we can greatly reduce the mortality that's the first step to getting back to "normal".

Then as others have said effective testing and tracing should keep cases low.