When will this shit end?

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

One problem with the polls is there will be many who hate Trump, but aren't that excited about Biden and would rather Sanders, who will not bother voting or vote for some other progressive candidate if they see Biden as definitely winning.

sanders would have put off a lot of moderate indie voters. Biden wont

[shoptildrop]

7 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I don’t really see the Fox News anti trump agenda at all? The reason they are using polls is actually two fold. They want to scare their audience that trump might lose and “you’l get the scary democrats if you let trump lose in November”.

I don’t think people realise the real sentiment behind trump supporters in America. It’s born out of generations of distrust for experts and the media. Many trump supporters like him because of his incompetency, they want someone up in office which makes the experts cry. It’s a protest vote in some ways.

The Covid, BLM movement, Voter Supresssion topics have only strengthened his base. To his base he’s the fucking boy and it’s the powers that be that don’t want him in office. You can shove polls and statistics and facts in their face but they don’t want to see them. They feel disenfranchised and they want someone in power that makes the people they are envious of ‘sweat’.

The media don’t want to report on the fact that trumps base is strong. They don’t want to acknowledge that across America people actually like this guy. There is a fire which they can’t put out and it shames me that people can’t see this coming. Fox News who are pretty much the trump news network have had their rating soar in the Covid period. Funnily enough the shows which have been doing well are those that support the president (tucker) not the ones who critique him.

I mean this in the best way but please don’t fall for the same mistakes. Please stop using polls and statistics to measure anything. There will be a lot of people who are too ashamed to admit they support trump just like last time. The fact that throughout his entirety presidency so far his voter base hasn’t shifted at all is a worrying sign. If he was losing supporters left right and centre I could see it, but I’d wager everyone who voted trump in 2016 will vote for trump again.

Collective plea for everyone to stop making the same mistakes. It’s happened now with Brexit, Our last two elections, and Trump. The media don’t want to report the support the other side has. Stop falling for it AGAIN.

I have to say I agree that Trump's core base hasn't gone anywhere and before Covid I would have 100% said he would win again..

However, now I'm not as confident especially if his core voters start dying and their families start dying then that might swing things a bit imo

His obsession on mail voting being fraud is just to pave the ground work if close or a defeat he can shout and scream it was a fix, the reality with mail voting it reaches a lot of people who are not republicans and makes it easier for people to vote who wouldn't normally - he knows this

[Ozanne]

Pollsters have generally been on the money recently, they have learnt from their mistakes in previous elections and are fairly accurate.

[shoptildrop]

5 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

 

 

I know that report didn't sit well with me at all, as I see plenty of folk in their 40s, 50s, 60s plus flouting the rules as they think its all fake and they want to do what they want..

Gov have been say all through that under 40s are minimal risk and as you say pushing them to go out, so this story sucks... if anything the fact that they are going for testing shows responsibility 

[Matt42]

Said before but Joe Biden’s biggest downfall will be trying to get people to vote who 

- we’re only going to vote if sanders or warren were in the race.

- team AOC who find Joe Biden problematic.

Joe is on such a back foot it’s unbelievable. They aren’t even trying to get the youth vote either. Hilary got a large share of young voter, minorities, lgbt voters etc. Are all of these people going to vote for Joe Biden? They will probably just not bother.

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

sanders would have put off a lot of moderate indie voters. Biden wont

Yeah, maybe. I'm not arguing who would have been better...Biden probably is the best bet to beat Trump. It's just that polls make people complacant. Ideally they'd be closer or even with Trump showing a small lead which would get the Sanders/Warren supporters out voting Biden. My brother lives in US and he falls into this category, doesn't want to vote for Biden, saying he might vote Green. I won't let him live it down if Trump gets in again and he wasted his vote on a 3rd candidate.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Said before but Joe Biden’s biggest downfall will be trying to get people to vote who 

- we’re only going to vote if sanders or warren were in the race.

- team AOC who find Joe Biden problematic.

Joe is on such a back foot it’s unbelievable. They aren’t even trying to get the youth vote either. Hilary got a large share of young voter, minorities, lgbt voters etc. Are all of these people going to vote for Joe Biden? They will probably just not bother.

But hasn't Biden been doing a lot of work to bring on Sanders, AOC etc...infact Trump may well use that in his campaign against Biden.

[zahidf]

5 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Said before but Joe Biden’s biggest downfall will be trying to get people to vote who 

- we’re only going to vote if sanders or warren were in the race.

- team AOC who find Joe Biden problematic.

Joe is on such a back foot it’s unbelievable. They aren’t even trying to get the youth vote either. Hilary got a large share of young voter, minorities, lgbt voters etc. Are all of these people going to vote for Joe Biden? They will probably just not bother.

Doesn't matter if the old white people in florida vote biden. And biden has a 20 point lead with them according to the last poll

Warren/bernie couldn't get the votes out in the primary season. 

Edited July 30, 2020 by zahidf

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

But hasn't Biden been doing a lot of work to bring on Sanders, AOC etc...infact Trump may well use that in his campaign against Biden.

Yeah sanders is in camp biden and actually likes him.

The 'crazy leftie' thing ain't gonna work with biden. He's too likeable!

[steviewevie]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/19/trump-2020-joe-biden-extreme-left

[steviewevie]

The biggest problem with Biden is his age and he's a bit gaff prone.

[zahidf]

7 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

The biggest problem with Biden is his age and he's a bit gaff prone.

Trumps a bit too mental to take advantage 

 

 

[Zoo Music Girl]

40 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I was listening to the FiveThirtyEight podcast (american poll analysis/politics site) and they reckon because of all the postal voting, the result won't be known for quite some time - weeks, not hours.

Hmm could be a very long election night then...

[Zoo Music Girl]

28 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Before COVID I thought he was likely to win, but now he’s done for. My only concern is that Biden can appear a bit confused so if that happens in a debate it might cause some to swing back to Trump.

Yeah this is where I am with it.

[Copperface]

Donny T is now cacking himself. 

Wants to 'delay' the election.

Power grab?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53597975

Edited July 30, 2020 by Copperface

[squirrelarmy]

3 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Donny T is now cacking himself. 

Wants to 'delay' the election.

Power grab?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53597975

[stuie]

2 hours ago, FestivalJamie said:

Is anyone else worried about these festivals in Malta? There’s like 4 or so of them coming up next month and apparently it’s all Brits who go....

Im really worried about Brits taking the virus over, spreading it at these festivals and then thousands of them coming back to the UK and bringing the virus back with them, causing a second spike in this country.

The Maltese doctors are striking from Monday and taking the government to court unless they revert to a ban on mass gatherings, but the government aren’t looking like they are going to budge.

I can only hope boris Johnson has enough brain cells to see all the Brit tourists going across to malta, spreading the infection and then force them into a mandatory quarantine when they get back.

Otherwise I am so worried about a second spike in this country. We know international travel has facilitated a steady rise in cases, but these festivals could lead to an exponential rise and a second lock down. There will literally be 10s of thousands of Brits going to these events and potentially coming back and spreading the virus.

 

So... is anyone on here heading to Malta? 
 

I’m going for an 8 day holiday while one of these festivals is on, mainly for relaxation but it’s tempting! 
 

I’m working from home still and will be isolating when I get back, by the way! 

[stuartbert two hats]

13 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Donny T is now cacking himself. 

Wants to 'delay' the election.

Power grab?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53597975

Right out of the despot playbook.

[steviewevie]

Bad economic data in US released today...probably a coincidence.

[zahidf]

 

 

Edited July 30, 2020 by zahidf

[Crazyfool01]

1 hour ago, Matt42 said:

Because trump appeals to people who are invisible in media reporting and their opinions never get asked because the media doesn’t want to deal with backlash of what these people will say.

Bookmark me on this. Trumps strong voter base is more behind him than ever before.

Its hard for Brits to understand but the democrats genuinely run the American media and they don’t want to run any stories about what trumps supporters really think. They don’t want to publicise the opinions of their opposition. 

Surely trumps strong voter base isn’t what he needs it’s the people that used to think he was good for the economy and jobs ... oh and by the time of the election will have a couple of hundred thousand deaths in his name ... 

[Crazyfool01]

21 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Bad economic data in US released today...probably a coincidence.

Because we are talking about it on efests ?  

[Reckoner]

3 hours ago, FestivalJamie said:

Im really worried about Brits taking the virus over, spreading it at these festivals and then thousands of them coming back to the UK and bringing the virus back with them, causing a second spike in this country.

As one of the sensible ones who has been well ahead of the curve on the mask chat, how do you reconcile this with your planned trip?

Non essential travel needs to stop, especially with the lack of proper quarantine and testing of  arrivals.  

 

[Waterdeep]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.16.20127357v1

Contact tracing from Italy: 2,812 cases and 6,690 community contacts, of which 890 developed symptoms. They found that children (younger than 15yrs old) had the greatest risk of transmission. However, the number of child cases and contacts of those children were markedly lower than the rest of the age groups, so this may be due to noise in the data.

Majority of cases infected 2 other people, with ~3% infecting 5 or more people.

[zero000]

2 hours ago, Matt42 said:

I don’t really see the Fox News anti trump agenda at all? The reason they are using polls is actually two fold. They want to scare their audience that trump might lose and “you’l get the scary democrats if you let trump lose in November”.

I don’t think people realise the real sentiment behind trump supporters in America. It’s born out of generations of distrust for experts and the media. Many trump supporters like him because of his incompetency, they want someone up in office which makes the experts cry. It’s a protest vote in some ways.

The Covid, BLM movement, Voter Supresssion topics have only strengthened his base. To his base he’s the fucking boy and it’s the powers that be that don’t want him in office. You can shove polls and statistics and facts in their face but they don’t want to see them. They feel disenfranchised and they want someone in power that makes the people they are envious of ‘sweat’.

The media don’t want to report on the fact that trumps base is strong. They don’t want to acknowledge that across America people actually like this guy. There is a fire which they can’t put out and it shames me that people can’t see this coming. Fox News who are pretty much the trump news network have had their rating soar in the Covid period. Funnily enough the shows which have been doing well are those that support the president (tucker) not the ones who critique him.

I mean this in the best way but please don’t fall for the same mistakes. Please stop using polls and statistics to measure anything. There will be a lot of people who are too ashamed to admit they support trump just like last time. The fact that throughout his entirety presidency so far his voter base hasn’t shifted at all is a worrying sign. If he was losing supporters left right and centre I could see it, but I’d wager everyone who voted trump in 2016 will vote for trump again.

Collective plea for everyone to stop making the same mistakes. It’s happened now with Brexit, Our last two elections, and Trump. The media don’t want to report the support the other side has. Stop falling for it AGAIN.

 

There's an issue here in that the polls were not wrong last time. It was recognised before the election night that a Trump victory was in the margin of error for the polls: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/

With a 3.3% margin predicted in the popular vote between Clinton and Trump and a 2.1% margin in reality.

The gap between Trump and Biden is currently 8.3%: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/ . That is a much larger gap. If the polls are incorrect by the average 2% suggested it is still a significant lead for Biden. Strengthening his base he might be, but COVID has decimated his election hopes. You can't whitewash 150,000 people dying. People aren't falling for it; 2020 is not 2016.