When will this shit end?

[jparx]

3 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

So I’m back to the office in aug. Here we go!

Good luck...

Think we'll be back in September, probably on a rota basis with alternating weeks WFH. Can't say I'm looking forward to it, although it will be good to finally meet the team I started managing in April 😂

[FestivalJamie]

What I have to say about today’s press conference was it was all optimism optimism optimism. It was completely just bragging about how amazing the test and trace system is and how many people have been tested and come back negative.

The test and trace system is not amazing, it still doesn’t reach 40% of total contacts, who need to be reached.

The politicians are up there to try and restore some confidence in the public to go back out there and that everything will be “normal” soon. It’s deliberately why Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance weren’t at the conference today, because they both provide a sense of realism and the government just wanted to convey an optimistic message across today rather than any realism or scientific facts.

The issue is, without a vaccine or sufficient treatment, normality cannot just resume soon. Indoor concerts should not and most likely won’t happen this winter as the disease is too dangerous and they would be a hotbed for an outbreak. Festivals next summer is a completely different story as the science is likely to have progressed so much more in a years time and we will know a lot more than we know now.

I was hoping for more realism and scientific facts in today’s press conference, and an emphasis on why we need to keep up the social distancing and wearing masks etc. Instead it was all about trying to make everything look happy and dandy as if the pandemic is over, when worldwide cases were at their highest yesterday, and Europe wide was the highest it’s been in a few weeks now.

I think we are all relying on a treatment or vaccine here, or the virus to mutate on its own accord to a less infectious strain, and Bojos plan is completely dependent on that, because the track and trace simply isn’t good enough. We can boost the track and trace with an app, great, but it needs to be mandatory from the public not optional, otherwise it’s not going to work.

I think we will be able to spend Christmas with our families this winter but I don’t expect there to be such thing as New Year’s Eve parties or Christmas parties or nightclubbing this winter, unless we have a vaccine distributed to the vulnerable. It’s too risky otherwise and even though optimism was thrown at us today, it’s simply not realistic. The test and trace isn’t good enough to get cases down to next to zero, and that’s what they need to be if we want indoor concerts again.

Also, they claim the r is 0.7-0.9 but daily and weekly cases have now stopped decreasing, yesterday’s cases were similar to last weeks and some days have been higher. So that was another comment to try and install confidence back to the public, I would ideally want to be seeing daily cases at max 300 like they are seeing in Italy and Germany on most days.

 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

There must be some real optimism the Oxford vaccine will be ready for the Autumn, and it’s just a question of trying to relax things as fast as possible to coincide with the vaccine being ready and when the relaxations would likely cause cases to rise again.

This is completely unfounded and pure guess work, but linking back to that article about Sweden potentially being close to herd immunity though 20% antibodies and 20% T-cell response, there could be some additional knowledge around that. So they might think we can can carry on easing into winter with perhaps less risk that it gets out of control than we perhaps initially assumed.

I know the virus is running riot in other places around the world, but generally its in places that suppressed things so much at the start they barely had any cases, or places that have been later on the timeline, like many US states.

Edited July 17, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[sisco]

12 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

So I’m back to the office in aug. Here we go!

I’ve been in throughout (key worker) and they’ve had lots of signage, social distancing + cleaning stations set up.  It’s all felt fairly safe to me. But.... maybe that’s because I’ve been out and about throughout.

One of my colleagues who has been shielding is absolutely petrified of coming back

[FestivalJamie]

Just now, sisco said:

I’ve been in throughout (key worker) and they’ve had lots of signage, social distancing + cleaning stations set up.  It’s all felt fairly safe to me. But.... maybe that’s because I’ve been out and about throughout.

One of my colleagues who has been shielding is absolutely petrified of coming back

I don’t think people who are shielding should be forced to go back to work or lose their jobs. The risks are still simply too high for those shielding and they are extremely vulnerable, in my opinion they should be allowed to remain on furlough for now.

[sisco]

6 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

I don’t think people who are shielding should be forced to go back to work or lose their jobs. The risks are still simply too high for those shielding and they are extremely vulnerable, in my opinion they should be allowed to remain on furlough for now.

Thing is they’re not on furlough at my work.  They’ve been WFH.  At some point our job will require people contact that has to be done in the office.

[Sasperella]

Of all the fucking ridiculous, pointless answers Bojo has ever given, this one might just take the biscuit... 

I presume what he means is "Are you kidding??? Obviously this a cluster fuck and everyone knows it"

 

 

[steviewevie]

17 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

What I have to say about today’s press conference was it was all optimism optimism optimism. It was completely just bragging about how amazing the test and trace system is and how many people have been tested and come back negative.

The test and trace system is not amazing, it still doesn’t reach 40% of total contacts, who need to be reached.

The politicians are up there to try and restore some confidence in the public to go back out there and that everything will be “normal” soon. It’s deliberately why Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance weren’t at the conference today, because they both provide a sense of realism and the government just wanted to convey an optimistic message across today rather than any realism or scientific facts.

The issue is, without a vaccine or sufficient treatment, normality cannot just resume soon. Indoor concerts should not and most likely won’t happen this winter as the disease is too dangerous and they would be a hotbed for an outbreak. Festivals next summer is a completely different story as the science is likely to have progressed so much more in a years time and we will know a lot more than we know now.

I was hoping for more realism and scientific facts in today’s press conference, and an emphasis on why we need to keep up the social distancing and wearing masks etc. Instead it was all about trying to make everything look happy and dandy as if the pandemic is over, when worldwide cases were at their highest yesterday, and Europe wide was the highest it’s been in a few weeks now.

I think we are all relying on a treatment or vaccine here, or the virus to mutate on its own accord to a less infectious strain, and Bojos plan is completely dependent on that, because the track and trace simply isn’t good enough. We can boost the track and trace with an app, great, but it needs to be mandatory from the public not optional, otherwise it’s not going to work.

I think we will be able to spend Christmas with our families this winter but I don’t expect there to be such thing as New Year’s Eve parties or Christmas parties or nightclubbing this winter, unless we have a vaccine distributed to the vulnerable. It’s too risky otherwise and even though optimism was thrown at us today, it’s simply not realistic. The test and trace isn’t good enough to get cases down to next to zero, and that’s what they need to be if we want indoor concerts again.

Also, they claim the r is 0.7-0.9 but daily and weekly cases have now stopped decreasing, yesterday’s cases were similar to last weeks and some days have been higher. So that was another comment to try and install confidence back to the public, I would ideally want to be seeing daily cases at max 300 like they are seeing in Italy and Germany on most days.

 

doomster and gloomster

[FestivalJamie]

Just now, steviewevie said:

doomster and gloomster

Just being realistic mate.

[steviewevie]

17 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

There must be some real optimism the Oxford vaccine will be ready for the Autumn, and it’s just a question of trying to relax things as fast as possible to coincide with the vaccine being ready and when the relaxations would likely cause cases to rise again.

This is completely unfounded and pure guess work, but linking back to that article about Sweden potentially being close to herd immunity though 20% antibodies and 20% T-cell response, there could be some additional knowledge around that. So they might think we can can carry on easing into winter with perhaps less risk that it gets out of control than we perhaps initially assumed.

I know the virus is running riot in other places around the world, but generally its in places that suppressed things so much at the start they barely had any cases, or places that have been later on the timeline, like many US states.

or...it's just Boris bullshit.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

6 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

or...it's just Boris bullshit.

Yeah, of course. It’s a pretty bold statement though and I’m not entirely sure why he’d say “things to be back to normal by Xmas” without any reason.

As I’ve said to other posters, I’m less interested in debating the politics of it and more interested in the science and the mechanics, what impact x has on y etc. I’m just taking that statement at face value and looking at why things might be back to normal by Xmas, rather than assuming that everything that’s said is an outright lie and the opposite will happen, it absolutely could be but I’ve little interest in second guessing it. I just want to go to Glastonbury next year and my main interest is what happens with this virus.

Edited July 17, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[ace56blaa]

20 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

 

I know the virus is running riot in other places around the world, but generally its in places that suppressed things so much at the start they barely had any cases, or places that have been later on the timeline, like many US states.

I don't think that's the case for the US. Just look at Florida. It never really shut down as much as other states. Opened its beaches for spring break. Yet it is still surging now. Same as LA that heavily locked down heavily at start but had huge protests and opened bars last month. So seems to just be surging where there's more population n activity

[Mr.Tease]

So everything will be fine and back to normal in November because magic, and at the same time the chief science and medical officer says this will be with us for years, fears a second surge that's worse than the first and the government is giving the nhs an extra 3 billion to prepare for that autumn/winter surge. And also let's just open everything up in the meantime. 

[steviewevie]

9 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Yeah, of course. It’s a pretty bold statement though and I’m not entirely sure why he’d say “things to be back to normal by Xmas” without any reason.

As I’ve said to other posters, I’m less interested in debating the politics of it and more interested in the science and the mechanics, what impact x has on y etc. I’m just taking that statement at face value and looking at why things might be back to normal by Xmas, rather than assuming that everything that’s said is an outright lie and the opposite will happen, it absolutely could be but I’ve little interest in second guessing it. I just want to go to Glastonbury next year and my main interest is what happens with this virus.

No scientists with him today...just Boris.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

8 minutes ago, ace56blaa said:

I don't think that's the case for the US. Just look at Florida. It never really shut down as much as other states. Opened its beaches for spring break. Yet it is still surging now. Same as LA that heavily locked down heavily at start but had huge protests and opened bars last month. So seems to just be surging where there's more population n activity

Yeah, it’s not necessarily as simple as I made out, but as you say they never really shut down so they never really got on top of it in the first place. America is vast and the response has been ridiculously disjointed. NY was hit around the same time as us and is largely avoiding the spikes elsewhere in the country. If you also look at somewhere like Australia, they got completely on top of it at the start and had barely any cases, initially they had about 100 deaths. They’ve since had spikes popping up and further lockdowns, because they’ve had so few cases in the first place, unless they sit on it indefinitely it will flare up again.

We've got amongst the highest excess death figures out of most countries adjusted for population, so it’s fair to say we’ve had a decent chuck or infections compared to a lot of countries. As I said, it’s purely theoretical on my part, but being hit so hard in the first phase may mean we can get away with more when relaxing measures where perhaps other countries might struggle. And it might possibly be why things could be back to normal by Xmas alongside a high probability of a vaccine.

Edited July 17, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[squirrelarmy]

@eFestivals weddings to be allowed from the 1st of August. 
 

Want to place a bet on who will be getting married that day?

[steviewevie]

9 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Yeah, of course. It’s a pretty bold statement though and I’m not entirely sure why he’d say “things to be back to normal by Xmas” without any reason.

As I’ve said to other posters, I’m less interested in debating the politics of it and more interested in the science and the mechanics, what impact x has on y etc. I’m just taking that statement at face value and looking at why things might be back to normal by Xmas, rather than assuming that everything that’s said is an outright lie and the opposite will happen, it absolutely could be but I’ve little interest in second guessing it. I just want to go to Glastonbury next year and my main interest is what happens with this virus.

In the end there is a best case scenario and a worst case scenario. I guess all the NHS/testing preparedness stuff at start of speech was to cover the worst case stuff...and then all the plans for ending social distancing stuff is if we get the best case scenario. We'll probably end up somewhere inbetween...

[Toilet Duck]

6 minutes ago, ace56blaa said:

I don't think that's the case for the US. Just look at Florida. It never really shut down as much as other states. Opened its beaches for spring break. Yet it is still surging now. Same as LA that heavily locked down heavily at start but had huge protests and opened bars last month. So seems to just be surging where there's more population n activity

I think LA has, more or less, had two "waves"...wave 1, from China/Asia, some of the earliest cases in the US (outside of Seattle) were in California. They fairly successfully dealt with that, but opened up just about the time the massive wave 2 was spreading across the US (which came from Europe via NYC). I haven't seen any data, but I bet if you sequenced LA samples from February they will look like the Wuhan virus and if you sequence samples now they will look like Italian/Spanish variants. It's just a guess mind you....Florida just didn't handle it very well (and other states mis-timed their public health measures).

[steviewevie]

Barcelona residents urged to stay home after a spike in cases there.

[ace56blaa]

3 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Yeah, it’s not necessarily as simple as I made out, but as you say they never really shut down so they never really got on top of it in the first place. America is vast and the response has been ridiculously disjointed. NY was hit around the same time as us and is largely avoiding the spikes elsewhere in the country. If you also look at somewhere like Australia, they got completely on top of it at the start and had barely any cases, initially they had about 100 deaths. They’ve since had spikes popping up and further lockdowns, because they’ve had so few cases in the first place, unless they sit on it indefinitely it will flare up again.

We've got amongst the highest excess death figures out of most countries adjusted for population, so it’s fair to say we’ve had a decent chuck or infections compared to a lot of countries. As I said, it’s purely theoretical on my part, but being hit so hard in the first phase may mean we can get away with more when relaxing measures where perhaps other countries might struggle. And it might possibly be why things could be back to normal by Xmas alongside a high probability of a vaccine.

Yeah I just think it's clear the better option is keeping measures until we see real low deaths n new infections. If not 0 deaths. All the countries doing well now didn't reopen until those numbers were much lower

[ace56blaa]

1 minute ago, Toilet Duck said:

I think LA has, more or less, had two "waves"...wave 1, from China/Asia, some of the earliest cases in the US (outside of Seattle) were in California. They fairly successfully dealt with that, but opened up just about the time the massive wave 2 was spreading across the US (which came from Europe via NYC). I haven't seen any data, but I bet if you sequenced LA samples from February they will look like the Wuhan virus and if you sequence samples now they will look like Italian/Spanish variants. It's just a guess mind you....Florida just didn't handle it very well (and other states mis-timed their public health measures).

Yeah I think my point was just commenting that deaf Bobby was speculating that U.s locked down too hard too early now people are only getting infected now. When that that isn't the case in the u.s. 

[mcshed]

"All over by Christmas" it is then, good job that doesn't have any tragic historical resonance.

[FestivalJamie]

Completely irrelevant to the discussion but has anyone been to Tesco? They’ve taken away all the hand sanitiser, queue system, one way systems etc!

Like Boris Johnson, they clearly think it’s all over!

[parsonjack]

11 minutes ago, mcshed said:

"All over by Christmas" it is then, good job that doesn't have any tragic historical resonance.

Beat me too it.

[Andre91]

11 minutes ago, mcshed said:

"All over by Christmas" it is then, good job that doesn't have any tragic historical resonance.

Maybe the virus and those struck down with it will emerge on Christmas Day for a kickabout!