When will this shit end?

[Homer]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

Some comedy and theatre stuff in London in august

https://newnormalfest.co.uk/whats-on

Ah thanks for confirming that (also, I want to go and support live comedy!).

[FestivalJamie]

Just now, Homer said:

He said something about some live performances and outdoor gathering from 1 Aug I thought (I was frantically typing as he was speaking though).

Live outdoor performances from 1st August with social distancing. I think the October date is for live gigs without social distancing?

2 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

No lockdowns - economy can't deal with it, that's why more money is being put into the NHS. Hoping for the best...

How do we know the money being put into the NHS is being spent on the right things? If it’s spent on the wrong things then it could lead to an unfortunate and unnecessary amount of deaths. It’s all well and good pumping money into the NHS but if there’s no active guidance on what to spend it on, then it could end in disaster.

If cases spike as high as they did in April we will have no choice but to have another nation-wide lockdown, and even if we don’t, businesses will shut down on their own accord because as risks increase to a threatening level, people will be way less willing to leave home and spend their money.

[Quark]

6 minutes ago, Homer said:

The Yanks have always been more susceptible to Swedish hair pop-rock than us, so hopefully we'll be spared them touring here.

Don't post anything else today pal, you've peaked with this one.

[FestivalJamie]

Interestingly it’s been pointed out the chief scientific advisers might not have been on the panel today as they believe that the plan is too optimistic/unrealistic so they were held from the press conference.

[jparx]

Just catching up here but Boris being very bold here surely?

The PM says he hopes the UK will return to "significant" normality by the middle of November, with the remainder of restrictions eased "possibly for Christmas".

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, FestivalJamie said:

How do we know the money being put into the NHS is being spent on the right things? If it’s spent on the wrong things then it could lead to an unfortunate and unnecessary amount of deaths. It’s all well and good pumping money into the NHS but if there’s no active guidance on what to spend it on, then it could end in disaster.

If cases spike as high as they did in April we will have no choice but to have another nation-wide lockdown, and even if we don’t, businesses will shut down on their own accord because as risks increase to a threatening level, people will be way less willing to leave home and spend their money.

I agree - but they're destroying the economy by choice in January.

Don't underestimate the gas lighting this government is capable of- there'll be huge "everything's fine" opinion shaping campaigns even if there is a "second wave".

Remember our aim is "no second wave that overwhelms the NHS" so as long as that isnt going to happen, they'll need to either hide the numbers or just convince people its an acceptable sacrifice 

[FestivalJamie]

Just now, jparx said:

Just catching up here but Boris being very bold here surely?

The PM says he hopes the UK will return to "significant" normality by the middle of November, with the remainder of restrictions eased "possibly for Christmas".

Definitely, and Christmas time is when the virus risks are going to be at their absolute highest.

[Homer]

5 minutes ago, Quark said:

Don't post anything else today pal, you've peaked with this one.

Ha! I'm off for a lie down now.

[jparx]

Just now, FestivalJamie said:

Definitely, and Christmas time is when the virus risks are going to be at their absolute highest.

He's either lost the plot entirely (most likely) or they have some reason to be so openly optimistic. They've been so cautious with putting time frames on when "normality" returns. Why is he laying all the cards on the table now? Do they have some data we haven't seen that suggests it's on it's way down? Because every other indicating suggests globally this thing is currently as bad as ever (more so?!)

[Homer]

3 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

I agree - but they're destroying the economy by choice in January.

Don't underestimate the gas lighting this government is capable of- there'll be huge "everything's fine" opinion shaping campaigns even if there is a "second wave".

Remember our aim is "no second wave that overwhelms the NHS" so as long as that isnt going to happen, they'll need to either hide the numbers or just convince people its an acceptable sacrifice 

Has been suggested that chaos in and around 31st Dec could be handy for the govt too.

[Homer]

1 minute ago, jparx said:

He's either lost the plot entirely (most likely) or they have some reason to be so openly optimistic. They've been so cautious with putting time frames on when "normality" returns. Why is he laying all the cards on the table now? Do they have some data we haven't seen that suggests it's on it's way down? Because every other indicating suggests globally this thing is currently as bad as ever (more so?!)

You need to start being more positive (etc).

[FestivalJamie]

Just now, efcfanwirral said:

I agree - but they're destroying the economy by choice in January.

Don't underestimate the gas lighting this government is capable of- there'll be huge "everything's fine" opinion shaping campaigns even if there is a "second wave".

Remember our aim is "no second wave that overwhelms the NHS" so as long as that isnt going to happen, they'll need to either hide the numbers or just convince people its an acceptable sacrifice 

Hmmm, pre the first lockdown lots of businesses had started to shut off their own accord, theme parks were closing, concerts were getting cancelled etc, and that was without government advice and the knowledge we have now.

With the added knowledge we have now of how the first wave progressed, if cases increase to significant levels again lots of businesses won’t want to put their staff and customers at risk, and will close their businesses off their own backs. If everything non-essential closes, even if it’s against government advice, we will essentially be back to square one.

The government can push and push for things to stay open but at the end of the day if the threat of the virus is too large, people will stay in and businesses will no longer be financially viable to even stay open and will shut down off their own backs, essentially putting us back to another lockdown.

The government’s strategy is 100% relying on the test and trace system, with only 3/4 of those testing positive being contacted and then 3/4 of their contacts being traced, only about 50-60% of the actual contacts to those in contact with someone with the virus are getting traced at the moment. That is not sufficient enough to stop another wave which kills thousands more and crashes the economy.

[zeppelin]

2 minutes ago, Homer said:

You need to start being more positive (etc).

Just not for Covid.

[DeanoL]

27 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

The main reason it would not happen would be if large gatherings were still banned, but while we are understandably concerned about being able to visit the farm next year, there are many other large gatherings that make major contributions to society that would be off the table as well, so the incentive to find a solution is great (this should and probably will become part of safe international travel as well, so the logistical challenge now is to look at our testing infrastructure and decide what is needed to facilitate safe resumption of a range of activities). To be perfectly honest, it's actually easier to safely open festivals and sport than it is to open nightclubs, pubs and indoor live music venues (and, since festivals are less frequent than sporting events, it's easier again to open festivals...I honestly think they could be among first live music to come back properly...along with some outdoor gigs). 

 

Though worth bearing in mind that Glastonbury contains nightclubs, pubs and indoor live music venues, so we may have to see some changes to those areas of the site.

Re - going to work, I do worry the government are going to come up with some ridiculous incentive scheme to have employees working in the office instead of at home.

[FestivalJamie]

3 minutes ago, jparx said:

He's either lost the plot entirely (most likely) or they have some reason to be so openly optimistic. They've been so cautious with putting time frames on when "normality" returns. Why is he laying all the cards on the table now? Do they have some data we haven't seen that suggests it's on it's way down? Because every other indicating suggests globally this thing is currently as bad as ever (more so?!)

I’m guessing the optimism is relying on the results so far from the oxford vaccine, I think he’s hoping they can get the first doses out in October/November to all the vulnerable people so we can scrap social distancing.

If the vaccine doesn’t go to plan and isn’t launched, then his whole plan falls down. With the added pressure of the flu in winter, there’s no chance social distancing is going to be able to be scrapped with winter illness and covid.

But I have to say, if we all keep wearing masks into the winter we could not only suppress covid but we could also reduce flu transmission which means that the NHS is less likely to get overwhelmed, so some incentive to keep wearing masks in all enclosed spaces.

[Tommy101]

If they are talking about outdoor events in Autumn, surely festivals are looking good for next year. If it's seasonal, they might bin the idea over winter but then try and get control again in the spring and let the festival/sports economy bounce back in the summer. If it's not seasonal, and the R stays around the 0.7-0.9 level then even with local spikes and lockdowns we should be in a much better situation in summer next year than they hope to be in November

[FestivalJamie]

1 minute ago, Tommy101 said:

If they are talking about outdoor events in Autumn, surely festivals are looking good for next year. If it's seasonal, they might bin the idea over winter but then try and get control again in the spring and let the festival/sports economy bounce back in the summer. If it's not seasonal, and the R stays around the 0.7-0.9 level then even with local spikes and lockdowns we should be in a much better situation in summer next year than they hope to be in November

Completely my own opinions but I would say festivals next year are pretty probable, but indoor concerts this winter are no chance of happening.

[Ozanne]

Just now, FestivalJamie said:

Completely my own opinions but I would say festivals next year are pretty probable, but indoor concerts this winter are no chance of happening.

I agree. I think festivals next year will go ahead. He can’t have people in stadiums in October then cancel outdoor events 8 months on.

[steviewevie]

He just wants to put a positive spin on it so people are less afraid...high risk strategy, but he always seems to get away with it and probably thinks he will again. But..just imagine a 2nd wave plus chaos from a hard or no deal brexit...

[Copperface]

Can't believe people are falling for this crap. 

He'll say anything to deflect and conflate, deny it later, and try to absolve himself of any responsibility.

Easy to promise stuff now then fudge it further down the line as long as people start spending money again.

Distraction from Russian reports and Patel bullying claims.

[vintagelaureate]

11 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Completely my own opinions but I would say festivals next year are pretty probable, but indoor concerts this winter are no chance of happening.

 

10 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I agree. I think festivals next year will go ahead. He can’t have people in stadiums in October then cancel outdoor events 8 months on.

Whilst I agree with you to be honest - if they're having 10k + back at live football and piloting indoor venues, you never know  

Edited July 17, 2020 by vintagelaureate

[jparx]

5 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

I’m guessing the optimism is relying on the results so far from the oxford vaccine, I think he’s hoping they can get the first doses out in October/November to all the vulnerable people so we can scrap social distancing.

If the vaccine doesn’t go to plan and isn’t launched, then his whole plan falls down. With the added pressure of the flu in winter, there’s no chance social distancing is going to be able to be scrapped with winter illness and covid.

But I have to say, if we all keep wearing masks into the winter we could not only suppress covid but we could also reduce flu transmission which means that the NHS is less likely to get overwhelmed, so some incentive to keep wearing masks in all enclosed spaces.

Great point. Hopefully it becomes more normal when we're past Covid like you see in places like Japan. 

Feel very confident now that Glastonbury goes ahead next year. Not necessarily that it should but based on the way the government is approaching this, I'm sure Glastonbury will have the green light in 2021. We may end up with acts (particularly overseas) pulling out based on their personal circumstances/views and I think we'll all be on the Farm next June.

[Matt42]

So I’m back to the office in aug. Here we go!

[Toilet Duck]

25 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Though worth bearing in mind that Glastonbury contains nightclubs, pubs and indoor live music venues, so we may have to see some changes to those areas of the site.

Re - going to work, I do worry the government are going to come up with some ridiculous incentive scheme to have employees working in the office instead of at home.

It does, but the key difference is that those in them would have been tested within the last few days and deemed negative (hence my suggestion that it could run pretty close to normal). 

Edited July 17, 2020 by Toilet Duck

[efcfanwirral]

Just now, Toilet Duck said:

It does, but the key difference is that those in them would have been tested within the last few days and deemed negative (hence my suggestion that is could run pretty close to normal). 

I doubt refunds would be given- all at own risk etc. Might put a lot of people off!