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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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1 minute ago, Mr.Tease said:

Never trust my maths on this, it's largely guess work!😂 However I think that 20% refusing a vaccine would reduce the vaccine's suppression rate as if the vaccine had a 50% immunity rate, then 20% of the population refusing it would bring that down to 40% (I think)- it becomes more problematic the lower the the effectiveness of the vaccine. eg if it only has a 40% immunity rate, 20% of people refusing it messes the whole thing up.

From what I've read (and no one is fully clear yet), ultimately we'll manage to make this thing a bit less infectious and with treatments, a bit less deadly, rather than there being a magic bullet that ends it. For me a worry is the long term effects on people who have recovered

Think I've got my head around this now.  

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Just now, Mr.Tease said:

Never trust my maths on this, it's largely guess work!😂 However I think that 20% refusing a vaccine would reduce the vaccine's suppression rate as if the vaccine had a 50% immunity rate, then 20% of the population refusing it would bring that down to 40% (I think)- it becomes more problematic the lower the the effectiveness of the vaccine. eg if it only has a 40% immunity rate, 20% of people refusing it messes the whole thing up.

From what I've read (and no one is fully clear yet), ultimately we'll manage to make this thing a bit less infectious and with treatments, a bit less deadly, rather than there being a magic bullet that ends it. For me a worry is the long term effects on people who have recovered

We won't have enough of the vaccine to vaccinate everyone immediately anyway, I imagine when it's first available then it will be directed at the most vulnerable and at key workers but there will be a long time when there are more people who want a vaccine then there are vaccines so I wouldn't worry too much about the anti-vaxxers to begin with. 

I think outwith your hardcore nutters there are people who have reservations about the safety of anything that has been rushed to market, these people's concerns are likely to drop as more and more people they know get the vaccine.

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1 minute ago, mcshed said:

I think outwith your hardcore nutters there are people who have reservations about the safety of anything that has been rushed to market, these people's concerns are likely to drop as more and more people they know get the vaccine.

Yeah I don't think it's that unreasonable to be unsure about something that isn't even available yet.

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3 minutes ago, mcshed said:

We won't have enough of the vaccine to vaccinate everyone immediately anyway, I imagine when it's first available then it will be directed at the most vulnerable and at key workers but there will be a long time when there are more people who want a vaccine then there are vaccines so I wouldn't worry too much about the anti-vaxxers to begin with. 

I think outwith your hardcore nutters there are people who have reservations about the safety of anything that has been rushed to market, these people's concerns are likely to drop as more and more people they know get the vaccine.

True, I don't have a problem with people who are hesitant as they worry it's being rushed/hasn't been fully tested, it's the Bill Gates/5G conspiracy theorists that annoy me. Like you said though, should be quite a while before it becomes an issue- probably by then a new more effective vaccine will have been invented and we get to go through it all again!

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13 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I wonder if that's because all those who would be dying have died a bit early from covid19...

there's definitely an element of that (and including ones who died early when not having covid).

I think Spaffer is hoping that the end of year numbers won't make the UK look so bad against other countries.

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5 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

If this care home row has angered people, just wait til he blames the NHS for the death numbers, conveniently just around the end of the year when the country can no longer afford it...

not only will he blame the NHS for the death numbers, he'll also say that's why it need to be privatised "reformed". ;)

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7 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

not only will he blame the NHS for the death numbers, he'll also say that's why it need to be privatised "reformed". ;)

Yep 100%. He's actually got more of a case that will convince the country than if the virus hadn't happened as there are real numbers to point towards. 

Every single person I've mentioned this to think the virus means the NHS is immune as the public wouldn't accept it, but the public will accept whatever they're told...

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2 hours ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

It might change though if you can't do certain things without a vaccination certificate (fly for a holiday for example).  Numbers might go up because people had to do it (to keep doing what they wanted). 

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1 minute ago, EasyUserName said:

It might change though if you can't do certain things without a vaccination certificate (fly for a holiday for example).  Numbers might go up because people had to do it (to keep doing what they wanted). 

Are we at the point where making them pretty much mandatory (in everything but name) is really necessary? I hope not.

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Looking at the cruise ships and places like London and NY, the virus seems to infect around 20-30% of people under normal conditions.

Its things like prisons, care homes and meat processing plants where it goes to 50% or more

Hopefully a vaccine with 40% effectiveness not taken up by everyone is still enough to tip the scales. You’d still get outbreaks, but we should still be able to go about life normally again.

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton
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37 minutes ago, Cream Soda said:

Are we at the point where making them pretty much mandatory (in everything but name) is really necessary? I hope not.

If we ever want mass gatherings to come back and for things to actually go back to normal, yes. It won't happen without a majority of people taking a vaccine. 

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Just now, DeanoL said:

If we ever want mass gatherings to come back and for things to actually go back to normal, yes. It won't happen without a majority of people taking a vaccine. 

Do you think that should be implemented in that way though?  I want mass gatherings back as much as the next person but I'd like to see it achieved through educating those who are reluctant to have a vaccine and getting them on board, not forcing them.  

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4 minutes ago, Cream Soda said:

Do you think that should be implemented in that way though?  I want mass gatherings back as much as the next person but I'd like to see it achieved through educating those who are reluctant to have a vaccine and getting them on board, not forcing them.  

Agreed. Mainly on the safety aspect - pandemrix was rolled out as a mandatory vaccine for kids in Sweden in the wake of the swine flu epidemic and was found to be related to a 4x increase in the incidence of narcolepsy in that cohort.

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59 minutes ago, Cream Soda said:
  • Fri 14th August - Craig Charles
  • Sat 15th August - Two Door Cinema Club
  • Sat 22nd August - Supergrass
  • Thurs 27th August - Tom Grennan
  • Sat 29th August - The Libertines
  • Sun 30th August - Jason Manford
  • Tues 1st & Weds 2nd September - Bill Bailey
  • Sat 5th September - Maximo Park
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2 hours ago, Cream Soda said:

Do you think that should be implemented in that way though?  I want mass gatherings back as much as the next person but I'd like to see it achieved through educating those who are reluctant to have a vaccine and getting them on board, not forcing them.  

Agree with not forcing, but I'd have absolutely no issues with events like Glastonbury requiring a vaccination certificate or similar as a requirement for entry.

You choose not have a vaccine? Fine. We also choose not to let you into our event.

Edited by Quark
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3 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Don’t think you’d need to force anybody, enough people would take it because they’d appreciate it would help bring an end to an awful situation. Plus then things like festivals would have the right to refuse anybody who hadn’t taken it. 

 

9 minutes ago, Quark said:

Agree with not forcing, but I'd have absolutely no issues with events like Glastonbury requiring a vaccination certificate or sikilar as a requirement for entry.

You choose not have a vaccine? Fine. We also choose not to let you into our event.

If enough people had it in the outside world, surely enough would also have it within the fence of Glastonbury to make it equally effective? Would there be any logic to enforcing it to attend Glastonbury if it wasn't enforced in other situations in the real world?

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3 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Don’t think you’d need to force anybody, enough people would take it because they’d appreciate it would help bring an end to an awful situation. Plus then things like festivals would have the right to refuse anybody who hadn’t taken it. 

I'd look forward to watching the brain-melting doublethink as people demand the government can't force them to take a vaccine while at the same time demanding that the government force a private event to let them in without a vaccine.

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1 minute ago, Quark said:

I'd look forward to watching the brain-melting doublethink as people demand the government can't force them to take a vaccine while at the same time demanding that the government force a private event to let them in without a vaccine.

I may be wrong but I can't see Glastonbury going down this road unless they absolutely had to.  I don't see why they would have to if it wasn't being enforced in wider society.

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