When will this shit end?

[steviewevie]

6 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

It’s another year away though, look at the breakthroughs we’ve already made in 5-6 months. There’s going to be so much more. They are already allowing camping and normal holidays so by next summer much more will be allowed. Are they going to ban all events like music festivals for another year? I doubt it, it’ll become a personal choice/risk issue for the individual or festival.

I really understand the worry and doubt about it going ahead but we have so much time for more breakthroughs in treatment. The more things get opened now the better the chances of Glastonbury going ahead in 2021 are. 

Yeah, I think will go ahead, but the weather will be terrible.

[Cream Soda]

11 minutes ago, jparx said:

To be honest, we're so far ahead of where I thought we would be at this stage. Hearing that outdoor shows can resume "shortly" is staggering. Once the severity of the pandemic set in, I thought pubs wouldn't open until the Autumn at least, we wouldn't be going abroad on holiday until 2021 and outdoor concerts would be a no go until there's a vaccine/sufficient treatments. Yet here we are.

The danger is a second wave that knocks us back to square one, but IF this is kept relatively under control and we continue on this trajectory, I feel like we're on the best path possible in terms of Glastonbury happening. I feel incredibly optimistic at the moment but it's still so far away.

 

11 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

It’s another year away though, look at the breakthroughs we’ve already made in 5-6 months. There’s going to be so much more. They are already allowing camping and normal holidays so by next summer much more will be allowed. Are they going to ban all events like music festivals for another year? I doubt it, it’ll become a personal choice/risk issue for the individual or festival.

I really understand the worry and doubt about it going ahead but we have so much time for more breakthroughs in treatment. The more things get opened now the better the chances of Glastonbury going ahead in 2021 are. 

 

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Yeah, I think will go ahead, but the weather will be terrible.

I admire the optimism, really hope you're right.  (Except the weather part obviously)

[Mr.Tease]

I think the issue isn't so much whether we'll be in a better situation next summer (so the festival can go ahead) but whether they'll know that we'll be in a better situation well before then - they can't just crack on with it and hope for the best, they need to know what's happening with transportation, bands touring, social distancing measures etc etc

Edited July 6, 2020 by Mr.Tease

[steviewevie]

 

[ace56blaa]

Still a bit confused why the government sees theaters as too much of a risk to open but cinemas are okay. Especially since some cinema screens are larger than a lot of smaller theatres

[squirrelarmy]

1 minute ago, ace56blaa said:

Still a bit confused why the government sees theaters as too much of a risk to open but cinemas are okay. Especially since some cinema screens are larger than a lot of smaller theatres

Theatres are tight for space back stage. A film requires a minimal amount of staff to operate. I don’t think it’s just the audience that is a factor. 

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Theatres are tight for space back stage. A film requires a minimal amount of staff to operate. I don’t think it’s just the audience that is a factor. 

yeah, and a lot more spit flying round all over the place in theatres (and even more in gigs/festivals).

[ace56blaa]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

yeah, and a lot more spit flying round all over the place in theatres (and even more in gigs/festivals).

That's a fair point, I guess there is a lot more chance for cinemas to control measures as well. -  But it still seems a little silly but I guess atm that is just going to be the case

[FestivalJamie]

I cannot feel optimistic about live performances resuming “shortly”. We’re the country with the second highest deaths in the world, I don’t know how we can even think about getting back to normal at this stage.

After seeing how overly crowded the London bars and pubs were on Saturday night, no social distancing and the only mitigation being a bottle of hand sanitiser on the bar at the pub, I definitely think in 9-14 days time we are about to see a spike in infections.

Italy, France, spain and germany have all unlocked before us and their infections continue to decrease. But the one main factor they have which we don’t: face masks. In restaurants and pubs in these countries when you are not sitting at your table you must require a mask and must be at a 1.5m distance. In the UK, all the measures for businesses to take are “guidelines” and therefore half of them aren’t actually covid secure at all, loads of them are just operating like they normally would. We need proper legislation in place from the government regarding mitigation’s such as face masks, screens, hand sanitiser stations etc. Not just “guidelines”. And apparently now being outside is an excuse not to keep social distance? It’s not, risks are lower outside but they are still there.

I am definitely anticipating a spike, and things to close down again come 2 weeks, which will set our progress back and lead to more deaths once again. Hopefully it will be local outbreaks that the government can tackle, but I think the one thing we will realise is that live music events will not be able to take place for the foreseeable future until we have a proper treatment or a vaccine, as due to the nature of them, there is no social distancing or mitigation’s in place whatsoever, the risk of a major outbreak from a large live music performance such as a concert are way too high. Outdoor theatre on the other hand can probably resume sooner provided we can stay on a positive trajectory, as there can be socially distanced seating etc.

As I said, any more unlocking measures rely on saturdays unlocking going well, and I’m perfectly confident that the risks of opening restaurants/theme parks/ cinemas with social distancing in place are probably minimal. The risks are crowded pubs, where the owners are interpreting “covid guidelines” in a poor manner and there is no proper social distancing in place. This is what we saw in London on Saturday and until the government puts in proper rules and legislation for businesses to follow, such as face masks in shops, I am doubtful of this country making any further progress until a scientific breakthrough.

Some live performances(theatre) have already started to resume in germany but with all guests wearing masks. They have cancelled mass events until November in Germany and this includes any concert or festival, so I highly doubt we will be seeing anything before November, and if we do it will be a very risky strategy which could lead to a spike in cases again.

 

 

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Some live performances(theatre) have already started to resume in germany but with all guests wearing masks. They have cancelled mass events until November in Germany and this includes any concert or festival, so I highly doubt we will be seeing anything before November, and if we do it will be a very risky strategy which could lead to a spike in cases again.

yeah...and November is when risk of 2nd wave will really start to rise, so I actually can't see any gigs happening until at least next spring, unless outside.

[jparx]

I dunno, I'm finding it very hard to try and predict things at the moment. I feel optimistic about next year, but beyond that it's all an unknown. It's just too far away. Not only are you trying to predict the virus and people's behaviour leading to spikes, you're also trying to predict our government and their reaction to it. I think there will be a rise in cases after the weekend, but I guess the question is the degree of the increase. It would have to be something dramatic for the government to close things down again. We're in full economy boosting mode now, and to be honest I feel like the Leicester situation is more to make an example than a sign of things to come. But who the hell knows. Let's see where we're at 4 weeks from now.

[efcfanwirral]

3 hours ago, Neil said:

all the money will go to the places that are already strongly tapped into arts funding - which is good for them of course but leaves the rest high and dry.

The businesses that normally trade without govt support are likely to be left without govt support.  

I just heard someone from the government on the radio news talk about how these venues are a huge part of british culture "from the royal albert hall to the Liverpool Philharmonic" which doesnt fill me with confidence about smaller live music venues getting much help....

Edited July 6, 2020 by efcfanwirral

[zahidf]

5 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

I just heard someone from the government on the radio news talk about how these venues are a huge part of british culture "from the royal albert hall to the Liverpool Philharmonic" which doesnt fill me with confidence about smaller live music venues getting much help....

Music venues trust seem happy about it. They had asked for around 50 million to safeguard their grassroots. And Bojo mentioned pub gig venues 

[Chapple12345]

33 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

I just heard someone from the government on the radio news talk about how these venues are a huge part of british culture "from the royal albert hall to the Liverpool Philharmonic" which doesnt fill me with confidence about smaller live music venues getting much help....

Royal Albert Hall and Liverpool Philharmonic are being classed as 'Crown Jewels' which are world renowned venues that would need preserving which are allocated their own funding, smaller localised venues will receive a different form of funding such as local theatre and music venues, so any kind of setting will be covered by it 

[Neil]

5 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

Royal Albert Hall and Liverpool Philharmonic are being classed as 'Crown Jewels' which are world renowned venues that would need preserving which are allocated their own funding, smaller localised venues will receive a different form of funding such as local theatre and music venues, so any kind of setting will be covered by it 

mate of mine runs Liverpool Philly. He was the guy who started Leicester's Summer Sundae.

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, Neil said:

mate of mine runs Liverpool Philly. He was the guy who started Leicester's Summer Sundae.

Really used to enjoy the Summer Sundae. Had some cracking line ups

[Homer]

WTF - we seem to be at a point beyond parody parody

Edited July 6, 2020 by Homer

[Ozanne]

Epic levels of trolling. I love him. 

[FestivalJamie]

1 hour ago, jparx said:

I dunno, I'm finding it very hard to try and predict things at the moment. I feel optimistic about next year, but beyond that it's all an unknown. It's just too far away. Not only are you trying to predict the virus and people's behaviour leading to spikes, you're also trying to predict our government and their reaction to it. I think there will be a rise in cases after the weekend, but I guess the question is the degree of the increase. It would have to be something dramatic for the government to close things down again. We're in full economy boosting mode now, and to be honest I feel like the Leicester situation is more to make an example than a sign of things to come. But who the hell knows. Let's see where we're at 4 weeks from now.

I get this, but our government has constantly said we need to be more like germany if we are going to succeed against this virus. So we ramped up our testing volumes to match and introduced a track and trace system... that’s all great.

But Germany has very strict legislation and rules that businesses have to follow so they are allowed to open, and there are spot checks carried out to ensure this legislation is implemented and if the requirements are not met, the business is shut down until they can implement some proper measures.

Here we just have “guidelines” which means businesses can either go really over the top to be covid secure or can just really loosely follow these guidelines, which puts their staff and guests more at risk. From a local pub I know a friend who works there and hasn’t been supplied with any PPE, puts her at risk, and also the guests. But apparently in this country that’s ok as PPE is “optional” and the business won’t get reviewed or shut down- in germany it would be closed immediately as staff aren’t wearing adequate PPE.

If we want to be like those other countries who are now succeeding the battle against the virus, we need to use their strategies too, rather than do what our government do and come up with their own without a clue whether they will be successful or not. We need strict legislation surrounding what exactly businesses must do to operate safely and we also need to step up the mask requirement. Otherwise I can’t see us moving forward only backwards or at best staying where we are with an R=1.

 

[efcfanwirral]

58 minutes ago, Neil said:

mate of mine runs Liverpool Philly. He was the guy who started Leicester's Summer Sundae.

Saw Kelly Jones there last year, my first time in the venue and it was amazing - the sound was incredible. 

[MEGABOWL]

13 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I do forget that the USA is much more like Europe than any one country in Europe in the way we should think about it. It really is a collection of states - they're not like boroughs in either legal autonomy or geographical scale.

So, some places look more like a typical European country in their cars graph (e.g. New York), whereas others have only recently started to uptick.

I thought some states had the double upward slope pattern you can see for the US as a whole, but a spot check on Worldometers backs you up. For every state I've checked, the numbers are either still heading upwards, or are on their way down. I've not found any that went down significantly and are now on their way back up.

Yeah exactly. It’s different parts of the (vast and varied) Country at different stages, dealing with it (or not really bothering 😲) in different ways. 

[parsonjack]

14 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

See post above yours

How well have your predictions been borne out in this first wave of infections?
For London, we predicted that hospital admissions would peak on 5 April, deaths would peak five days later, and critical care unit occupancy would not exceed capacity – meaning the Nightingale hospitals would not be required. We also predicted that improvements would be seen in the capital by 8 May that might allow social distancing measures to be relaxed – which they were in the prime minister’s announcement on 10 May. To date our predictions have been accurate to within a day or two, so there is a predictive validity to our models that the conventional ones lack.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/covid-19-expert-karl-friston-germany-may-have-more-immunological-dark-matter

Can we get this guy on the 2021 Weather thread? 

[Ozanne]

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Are you related ?  

[Ted Dansons Wig]

4 hours ago, Ozanne said:

Epic levels of trolling. I love him. 

Beers a bit naff though