When will this shit end?

[jparx]

10 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

See post above yours

How well have your predictions been borne out in this first wave of infections?
For London, we predicted that hospital admissions would peak on 5 April, deaths would peak five days later, and critical care unit occupancy would not exceed capacity – meaning the Nightingale hospitals would not be required. We also predicted that improvements would be seen in the capital by 8 May that might allow social distancing measures to be relaxed – which they were in the prime minister’s announcement on 10 May. To date our predictions have been accurate to within a day or two, so there is a predictive validity to our models that the conventional ones lack.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/covid-19-expert-karl-friston-germany-may-have-more-immunological-dark-matter

That guy kinda looks like David Lynch so I’m inclined to think he’s a genius.

[Chapple12345]

1 hour ago, kaytee... said:

I'd like to take that with a pinch of salt since the pubs weren't thought to have been opened before Christmas

Agreed, everything's moving a lot quicker than we first anticipated in all regards so we could be enjoying live arts sooner than we think 

[Ozanne]

14 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

See post above yours

How well have your predictions been borne out in this first wave of infections?
For London, we predicted that hospital admissions would peak on 5 April, deaths would peak five days later, and critical care unit occupancy would not exceed capacity – meaning the Nightingale hospitals would not be required. We also predicted that improvements would be seen in the capital by 8 May that might allow social distancing measures to be relaxed – which they were in the prime minister’s announcement on 10 May. To date our predictions have been accurate to within a day or two, so there is a predictive validity to our models that the conventional ones lack.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/covid-19-expert-karl-friston-germany-may-have-more-immunological-dark-matter

Sure seems like a prediction. LOL.

[funkychick2007]

I’m not quite clever enough to understand all the political and scientific stuff! There are some real clever people on here! 
I am interested to know the impact 2 weeks on from this weekend and the Crowded beach saga!! As Nick Grimshaw sed onGogglebox it was the beach crowds were the same as two Glastonbury’s!  
 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

20 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

See post above yours

How well have your predictions been borne out in this first wave of infections?
For London, we predicted that hospital admissions would peak on 5 April, deaths would peak five days later, and critical care unit occupancy would not exceed capacity – meaning the Nightingale hospitals would not be required. We also predicted that improvements would be seen in the capital by 8 May that might allow social distancing measures to be relaxed – which they were in the prime minister’s announcement on 10 May. To date our predictions have been accurate to within a day or two, so there is a predictive validity to our models that the conventional ones lack.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/covid-19-expert-karl-friston-germany-may-have-more-immunological-dark-matter

Ok, I remember him taking about the immunological dark matter stuff which is in line with the recent T-cell studies. I also misread your post and thought you were being sarcastic. 

 

[stuartbert two hats]

4 minutes ago, MEGABOWL said:

America isn’t having a second wave. The parts of America that are surging at the minute haven’t finished their first.

I do forget that the USA is much more like Europe than any one country in Europe in the way we should think about it. It really is a collection of states - they're not like boroughs in either legal autonomy or geographical scale.

So, some places look more like a typical European country in their cars graph (e.g. New York), whereas others have only recently started to uptick.

I thought some states had the double upward slope pattern you can see for the US as a whole, but a spot check on Worldometers backs you up. For every state I've checked, the numbers are either still heading upwards, or are on their way down. I've not found any that went down significantly and are now on their way back up.

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Ok, I remember him taking about the immunological dark matter stuff which is in line with the recent T-cell studies. I also misread your post and thought you were being sarcastic. 

 

No, I was being serious. I did wonder whether I should have included the "oh!", I think that answers my question

[DeanoL]

8 hours ago, zahidf said:

Yeah. Pubs may cause a further spike, but the evidence so far seems to be dodgy factories as more of a worry 

This is worth picking up on. There's nothing dodgy about these factories. They were operating entirely within the law. The government advice was to work from home unless you couldn't. They mandated closure of retail environments and service environments like gyms and hotels. Offices and factories were never required to close. Most offices did, as they couldn't reasonably argue that their work couldn't be done from home. Many factories did because they either wanted to protect their staff, or demand had dropped anyway and it made more sense to furlough most staff regardless. But it was never, at any point, illegal for factories to open. Nothing 'dodgy' about it.

I was going on about this months ago and you read back and see me pointing out that those of us doing office work just have no concept of the number of people still having to go into work every day, and that those people probably would break lockdown to see family and friends too, because they were being told it was okay for them to be going into work but not okay to go to the park, and clearly they would find that ridiculous.

That's the biggest cock up the government made (that and care homes) and we're starting to see it come out now, though inevitably it's "the factories flaunted the rules" and the government pretending like they ever did anything more than ask them nicely to close.

7 hours ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

I don't think even the government have said lockdown is over have they? All the talk is about easing, not ending. Certainly didn't think it was over back when shops were still closed.

They're also talking about "localised lockdowns" though - and Leicester are having one. So if Leicester is in lockdown, it implies the rest of us are out of it. It's confusing messaging.

7 hours ago, Cream Soda said:

 personally ok with waiters/waitresses not wearing anything. 

I've heard about restaurants like that....

[zahidf]

 

[stuie]

8 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

This is worth picking up on. There's nothing dodgy about these factories. They were operating entirely within the law. The government advice was to work from home unless you couldn't. They mandated closure of retail environments and service environments like gyms and hotels. Offices and factories were never required to close. Most offices did, as they couldn't reasonably argue that their work couldn't be done from home. Many factories did because they either wanted to protect their staff, or demand had dropped anyway and it made more sense to furlough most staff regardless. But it was never, at any point, illegal for factories to open. Nothing 'dodgy' about it.

I was going on about this months ago and you read back and see me pointing out that those of us doing office work just have no concept of the number of people still having to go into work every day, and that those people probably would break lockdown to see family and friends too, because they were being told it was okay for them to be going into work but not okay to go to the park, and clearly they would find that ridiculous.

That's the biggest cock up the government made (that and care homes) and we're starting to see it come out now, though inevitably it's "the factories flaunted the rules" and the government pretending like they ever did anything more than ask them nicely to close.

They're also talking about "localised lockdowns" though - and Leicester are having one. So if Leicester is in lockdown, it implies the rest of us are out of it. It's confusing messaging.

I've heard about restaurants like that....

Spot on... work from home if you can excluded such a large part of the population it made our ‘lockdown’ ineffective! I remember being surprised when I made a trip to our offices that all of the factory opposite were at work.  They hadn’t been told not too, so why would those guys have understood they couldn’t see people outside of work? 

[shoptildrop]

1 hour ago, DeanoL said:

This is worth picking up on. There's nothing dodgy about these factories. They were operating entirely within the law. The government advice was to work from home unless you couldn't. They mandated closure of retail environments and service environments like gyms and hotels. Offices and factories were never required to close. Most offices did, as they couldn't reasonably argue that their work couldn't be done from home. Many factories did because they either wanted to protect their staff, or demand had dropped anyway and it made more sense to furlough most staff regardless. But it was never, at any point, illegal for factories to open. Nothing 'dodgy' about it.

I was going on about this months ago and you read back and see me pointing out that those of us doing office work just have no concept of the number of people still having to go into work every day, and that those people probably would break lockdown to see family and friends too, because they were being told it was okay for them to be going into work but not okay to go to the park, and clearly they would find that ridiculous.

That's the biggest cock up the government made (that and care homes) and we're starting to see it come out now, though inevitably it's "the factories flaunted the rules" and the government pretending like they ever did anything more than ask them nicely to close.

They're also talking about "localised lockdowns" though - and Leicester are having one. So if Leicester is in lockdown, it implies the rest of us are out of it. It's confusing messaging.

I've heard about restaurants like that....

Whilst they "might" not be against covid rules, believe me these factories are definitely dodgy from an ethical and H&S point of view as this is what I do for a living...... I visit factories all over the world and one of the worst ones I have visited was in Leicester

I'm not saying they are all bad but them do have form in cutting corners as nothing is cheap producing in the UK, so something has to give if you are competing with SE Asia factories

[Ozanne]

@DeanoL The point about the factories being dodgy wasn’t that they stayed open it was that the management didn’t offer any ways of working in a covid secure way with social distancing in place. If they couldn’t offer that they shouldn’t have stayed open according to the guidelines. 

[Neil]

8 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

we predicted that ... critical care unit occupancy would not exceed capacity

hmmm .... how did he know what capacity was...? The capacity was ramped up hugely by converting other spaces to critical care use, but no one knew what that capacity was until all of the conversions were done, which didn't happen until *after* the first nightingale was built.

So the claim of that prediction is a bit suspect.

[Neil]

7 hours ago, zahidf said:

 

all the money will go to the places that are already strongly tapped into arts funding - which is good for them of course but leaves the rest high and dry.

The businesses that normally trade without govt support are likely to be left without govt support.  

[zahidf]

26 minutes ago, Neil said:

all the money will go to the places that are already strongly tapped into arts funding - which is good for them of course but leaves the rest high and dry.

The businesses that normally trade without govt support are likely to be left without govt support.  

Its an application based process. I agree those places with govt support will have an advantage, but it does cover places which haven't before.

I assume ( though not sure) that the music venues trust will get what they asked for to save the venues on their books.

[Zoo Music Girl]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

@DeanoL The point about the factories being dodgy wasn’t that they stayed open it was that the management didn’t offer any ways of working in a covid secure way with social distancing in place. If they couldn’t offer that they shouldn’t have stayed open according to the guidelines. 

Not just that but some paying below minimum wage too: 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/boohoo-leicester-factories-modern-slavery-boohoo-leicester-factories-modern-slavery-investigation-a9602086.html%3famp

[kaytee...]

5 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Not just that but some paying below minimum wage too: 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/boohoo-leicester-factories-modern-slavery-boohoo-leicester-factories-modern-slavery-investigation-a9602086.html%3famp

It's crazy that this has only just come to light. I've seen union workers stood outside the boohoo offices in Manchester for so long highlighting their shocking working conditions. 

It's in these kind of factories too where the majority of workers live in shared accommodation, so isolation would be near impossible if someone was to contract covid.

[Ozanne]

Potential good news for live music and festivals maybe. 

[Cream Soda]

Just now, Ozanne said:

Potential good news for live music and festivals maybe. 

I think the camping element of festivals is going to be the issue.  It's one thing having a one off open air 2 hour concert, but quite another having a 5 day event where people from different households are sleeping together in small enclosed spaces with limited hand washing, etc.  We really need some kind of breakthrough ASAP  

[sisco]

13 minutes ago, Cream Soda said:

I think the camping element of festivals is going to be the issue.  It's one thing having a one off open air 2 hour concert, but quite another having a 5 day event where people from different households are sleeping together in small enclosed spaces with limited hand washing, etc.  We really need some kind of breakthrough ASAP  

Christ you have a more fun festival than I do....

[jparx]

8 minutes ago, Cream Soda said:

I think the camping element of festivals is going to be the issue.  It's one thing having a one off open air 2 hour concert, but quite another having a 5 day event where people from different households are sleeping together in small enclosed spaces with limited hand washing, etc.  We really need some kind of breakthrough ASAP  

To be honest, we're so far ahead of where I thought we would be at this stage. Hearing that outdoor shows can resume "shortly" is staggering. Once the severity of the pandemic set in, I thought pubs wouldn't open until the Autumn at least, we wouldn't be going abroad on holiday until 2021 and outdoor concerts would be a no go until there's a vaccine/sufficient treatments. Yet here we are.

The danger is a second wave that knocks us back to square one, but IF this is kept relatively under control and we continue on this trajectory, I feel like we're on the best path possible in terms of Glastonbury happening. I feel incredibly optimistic at the moment but it's still so far away.

[Ozanne]

11 minutes ago, Cream Soda said:

I think the camping element of festivals is going to be the issue.  It's one thing having a one off open air 2 hour concert, but quite another having a 5 day event where people from different households are sleeping together in small enclosed spaces with limited hand washing, etc.  We really need some kind of breakthrough ASAP  

It’s another year away though, look at the breakthroughs we’ve already made in 5-6 months. There’s going to be so much more. They are already allowing camping and normal holidays so by next summer much more will be allowed. Are they going to ban all events like music festivals for another year? I doubt it, it’ll become a personal choice/risk issue for the individual or festival.

I really understand the worry and doubt about it going ahead but we have so much time for more breakthroughs in treatment. The more things get opened now the better the chances of Glastonbury going ahead in 2021 are. 

[steviewevie]

Good news about Govt spending on the arts...this government aren't afraid to spend more than previous ones.

Also..bbc podcast some of you may be interested in, interview with Neil Fergusson.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08j3kcg

[jparx]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

It’s another year away though, look at the breakthroughs we’ve already made in 5-6 months. There’s going to be so much more. They are already allowing camping and normal holidays so by next summer much more will be allowed. Are they going to ban all events like music festivals for another year? I doubt it, it’ll become a personal choice/risk issue for the individual or festival.

I really understand the worry and doubt about it going ahead but we have so much time for more breakthroughs in treatment. The more things get opened now the better the chances of Glastonbury going ahead in 2021 are. 

We're in a situation where you can genuinely read it positively or negatively. I feel that in the 3 1/2 months since lockdown we've had some huge breakthroughs, now having two treatments, cases right down, and as I said above we're well ahead of where I thought I would be in terms of reopening, and touch wood it's gone OK so far. I can certainly understand people reading it pessimistically; i just look at the progress made in a relatively short period of time and feel come Christmas we will be in a very different situation. Cases may be much higher than now but we also may have a couple more treatments that really blunt the worst cases of the virus. Ultimately though, in 3 1/2 months it feels like we've lived through 3 1/2 years. So many will have changed come next March, and I believe for the better.

[DeanoL]

3 hours ago, Ozanne said:

@DeanoL The point about the factories being dodgy wasn’t that they stayed open it was that the management didn’t offer any ways of working in a covid secure way with social distancing in place. If they couldn’t offer that they shouldn’t have stayed open according to the guidelines. 

That's the problem though. "guidelines". Retail spaces were forced to close by law. We were compelled to remain in our homes except for very specific circumstances, by law. Factories were told to use their own judgement.

You have to ask why this was so different. Why they weren't forced shut like everything else. The reason is the government wanted them to stay open to keep some of the industry afloat. And probably no-one would realise because of the demographics of who works there. It was true as well, people are reacting to the stories coming out now shocked that these factories were still running.

While the folk who run the factories certainly share in the blame here, lets not let the government off the hook on this one.