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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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40 minutes ago, Superscally said:

I've explained it dude! Trust me. Currently there are roughly what the reported 7 day averages dying every day. Infection rates aren't dropping significantly. Deaths aren't dropping significantly. You had me so worried I'd been an idiot I've just confirmed this with my pal who's one of PHE's main epidemiologists. You're correct that at this exact point in time deaths will be lower, but you're making out like this is a significant fall, when in reality it's likely to be a single figure change, i.e. not very much and in three or four weeks they'll likely be higher.

Infection numbers are almost COMPLETELY irrelevant and are a feature of tests performed. They'd only be a viable stat if everyone got tested every day. Ignore. Ignore. Ignore.🙂

Infection stats are not irrelevant because they tell us if deaths should still be declining.

Because we know infection rates are declining we know deaths should be declining, then if we know there is a delay in reporting deaths we know the amount of people that died on any given day has to be lower than the reported figure.

Granted now numbers are lower that won’t be a huge difference, they’ve managed to catch up and there isn’t so much of a lag. A month or so back there was a significant lag with most deaths reported not having happened with even a week or two.

But it stands to reason if infections are declining, unless you can report deaths in real time there will always be a difference, with the actual deaths on any given day being lower than reported. Granted as deaths drop to much lower numbers that gap narrows more and more.

incidentally it’s how Spain suddenly started reporting zero deaths. They stopped recording deaths that hadn’t actually happened within 48 hours and then back filled them to the stats when they were finally reported. It meant they could report zero deaths a day when in fact people were still dying.

Edit: in three or four weeks they’ll only likely be higher if at a national level all of a sudden today the decline in infections reverses and starts to increase. I assume you’re basing that on pubs opening? That aside, as of now infections are still falling, even if they’re falling at a slower rate they’re falling. Deaths will only be higher in three or four weeks if that completely reverses now.

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton
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44 minutes ago, Superscally said:

Infection numbers are almost COMPLETELY irrelevant and are a feature of tests performed. They'd only be a viable stat if everyone got tested every day. Ignore. Ignore. Ignore.🙂

Also regarding this point, thats not true for a number of reasons.

Firstly, there is a correlation between the numbers of tests being carried out and the number of infections found. Testing has steadily increased but infections have steadily dropped. This is proof infections are dropping and thus so are deaths. 

But aside from that we have different types of testing, there is the ONS surveillance testing that shows is the level of infection within the population for a two week period. The last release of data showed 0.04% of the population has Covid which was a decrease in the period before. This is important and useful data on infection, no need to ignore it because it give us useful information, and you can comfortably draw from it that infections are dropping therefore so are deaths.

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One reason the deaths aren't declining very fast is that higher proportion of those dying are now being tested for covid - so the gap between official deaths (with a test) and ONS deaths (mention of covid on death certificate) is closing.

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25 minutes ago, Neil said:

One reason the deaths aren't declining very fast is that higher proportion of those dying are now being tested for covid - so the gap between official deaths (with a test) and ONS deaths (mention of covid on death certificate) is closing.

So in a couple of weeks, if we look at excess deaths, then we'd probably see a drop?

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4 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

So in a couple of weeks, if we look at excess deaths, then we'd probably see a drop?

Already have a little haven't we? Wasn't last weeks average of excessive deaths less than this time last year?

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1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

yeah, I think excess deaths have dropped to normal or just below normal levels.

Only because a large number of high risk people have unfortunately succumbed to Covid prematurely. As with my uncle, his death wasn’t caused by covid but it was certainly accelerated by it. 

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1 minute ago, funkychick2007 said:

The roads are eerily quieter today than they have been the last couple of weekends! Perhaps people are thinking twice before going out! If you are going be sensible and look after each other! 

Or they aren’t driving as they are walking to pubs? 😜

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3 minutes ago, funkychick2007 said:

The roads are eerily quieter today than they have been the last couple of weekends! Perhaps people are thinking twice before going out! If you are going be sensible and look after each other! 

I have a bus app which shows you how busy they are. They are completely full. Everyone is going in for the long session so not driving. 

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Just watching some F1 .... looks like they have some very extreme measures in place there ........all the interviews are being done whilst mask wearing and outside the commentary   team  are social distancing and mask wearing ......4000 tests not a single positive result 

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I think a lot of people who are going out are staying local. Most people I know would get the train into Liverpool for drinks before lockdown but a friend working there says the trains have been quiet and town isn't mad busy. Don't know if the weather makes a difference too. Maybe it will get busy later on but I doubt anything like the media reckoned it would be. 

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