When will this shit end?

[onthebeach]

1 hour ago, Tommy101 said:

Apparently the Portsmouth 'spike' is form 0 cases to 1. I wouldn't go automatically shitting yourself if you're in one of those cities without digging further.

Ah - but do the figures include the infamous pillar 2 positive tests (the ones not publicly available)? These could be proportionally much higher

[Cream Soda]

2 minutes ago, Tommy101 said:

I think that list did originate from government, not the media making stuff up. But I think balanced statistical analysis would also consider stats similar to that shown in that map that @squirrelarmy posted on the previous page

Well yes, @Tommy101 was able to ascertain within minutes that the Portsmouth "spike" looks to be only 1 extra case so I don't see why the media can't do the same, they are supposed to be jourlanists after all. It's like they just want it to sound as worrying as possible.

Where did you get the info from about the one case btw @Tommy101?

[steviewevie]

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-bradford-and-london-boroughs-among-36-at-risk-areas-that-could-be-just-days-away-from-local-lockdowns-12018594

A PHE regional map for testing across England shows the towns and cities suffering high numbers of cases.

The map shows the worst affected regions (with at least 45 cases per 100,000 people in the week to 21 June) include:

• Leicester
• Barnsley
• Bradford
• Rochdale

The six areas in the next worst affected category (30-44.9 cases per 100,000) are:

• Bedford
• Blackburn with Darwen
• Tameside
• Oldham
• Kirklees
• Rotherham

A new snapshot for the week ending 28 June is due to be published tomorrow.

[thrillhouse188]

So should I start erecting a wall around Southampton to keep all the Portsmouth lot out? 

[squirrelarmy]

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Kirklees

A lot those cases can be linked to single major outbreak at a meat processing factory. 165 cases from that one site plus additional cases from families. 

The location of the factory is a town right on the border between Kirklees, Bradford and Leeds. 
 

 

[Chef]

https://twitter.com/BBC_Hayley/status/1278232210743623681?s=20

Some data for the Gloucestershire 'outbreak'

Edited July 1, 2020 by Chef

[Henrik]

2 hours ago, Tommy101 said:

Apparently the Portsmouth 'spike' is form 0 cases to 1. I wouldn't go automatically shitting yourself if you're in one of those cities without digging further.

Same for the Isle of Wight: 0 cases to 1. 

That list is a load of crap. 

[Simsy]

2 hours ago, Tommy101 said:

Apparently the Portsmouth 'spike' is form 0 cases to 1. I wouldn't go automatically shitting yourself if you're in one of those cities without digging further.

*Stops shitting self*

44 minutes ago, thrillhouse188 said:

So should I start erecting a wall around Southampton to keep all the Portsmouth lot out? 

We only come in for IKEA 😂

[Tommy101]

39 minutes ago, Cream Soda said:

Well yes, @Tommy101 was able to ascertain within minutes that the Portsmouth "spike" looks to be only 1 extra case so I don't see why the media can't do the same, they are supposed to be jourlanists after all. It's like they just want it to sound as worrying as possible.

Where did you get the info from about the one case btw @Tommy101?

It's actually quoted at 0.9/100,000 in the sky article that Ozanne shared, maybe the 1 I read this morning was a misinterpretation of that and I'm hypocritically spouting facts and figures without checking all the context etc myself. 

At any rate I'm going to duck out of this convo, I was honestly trying to reduce overall anxiety with my post and it has come across as a personal attack/caused friction that was not my intention. 

 

[northernringo]

Deaths just don't seem to be dropping in England. Case numbers still high.

Unsure on the situation in Wales but Scotland seem to have a good grip on the situation. NI has always had an advantage of being smaller and further separated but seems to be doing very well - just 13 people in hospital at the minute in Northern Ireland. 1 positive case (across both pillars) having tested nearly 1,500 people yesterday.

[Cream Soda]

10 minutes ago, Tommy101 said:

It's actually quoted at 0.9/100,000 in the sky article that Ozanne shared, maybe the 1 I read this morning was a misinterpretation of that and I'm hypocritically spouting facts and figures without checking all the context etc myself. 

At any rate I'm going to duck out of this convo, I was honestly trying to reduce overall anxiety with my post and it has come across as a personal attack/caused friction that was not my intention. 

 

At Portsmouth's population I think that would still only make it 2. something cases, if so you were right to question it.  I think any attempts to reduce (potentially) unnecessary anxiety can only be a good thing.

[steviewevie]

15 minutes ago, northernringo said:

Deaths just don't seem to be dropping in England. Case numbers still high.

Unsure on the situation in Wales but Scotland seem to have a good grip on the situation. NI has always had an advantage of being smaller and further separated but seems to be doing very well - just 13 people in hospital at the minute in Northern Ireland. 1 positive case (across both pillars) having tested nearly 1,500 people yesterday.

shhh, everything is fine, pubs opening soon.

[semmtexx]

19 hours ago, crazyfool1 said:

we both agree with you ...

Don’t worry! I did get that!

Not always clear over the net hey?! 
😁

[Chef]

36 minutes ago, Tommy101 said:

It's actually quoted at 0.9/100,000 in the sky article that Ozanne shared, maybe the 1 I read this morning was a misinterpretation of that and I'm hypocritically spouting facts and figures without checking all the context etc myself. 

At any rate I'm going to duck out of this convo, I was honestly trying to reduce overall anxiety with my post and it has come across as a personal attack/caused friction that was not my intention. 

 

I have just re-read the article Ozanne shared and hadn't originally seen the table where it ranks the cases per 100k by region, maybe its been added since or I just missed it. As a side note it says its Pillar 1 and 2 cases - does that mean the government are publishing this breakdown now?

The table doesn't align with the 36 'at risk' areas if that is the only metric they are using for measurement of whether somewhere is 'at risk'. For example Wandsworth is on that 'at risk' list but ranks at 108 with 2.76 weekly cases per 100k of population between  period 15-21 June. Therefore there has to be other considerations if it is true it's a high risk area but other places with a greater weekly ratio are not? 

It's also entirely feasible the list is based on more recent data which won't be made public until tomorrow for week to 28 June. 

[Ozanne]

2 hours ago, Tommy101 said:

Nope, was nothing personal and wasn't claiming that at all.

Whilst not contributing to this thread often I've been semi following it and appreciate that you seem to be sharing interesting and valid insight/data.

BUT I am questioning the methodology behind the categorisation of those 36 potential hotspots (which seem to have been reported in a wide spread of media). Some studies are using a % change in cases/admissions as a metric which is all well and good when numbers involved are high, but become statistically invalid when numbers are low as a change from 1 case to 2 will appear far more severe than a change of 50 cases to 90.

I think that the media in general (again not targeting your post/the sky article) has made a lot of money in worst case scenario without sharing methodology appropriately, or being selective about what they publish.

I hope this doesn't come across as me being flippant about the virus and how devastating it has been, will be an could be. I've taken government advice and will continue to do so, but the media distorting facts or sharing lists without proper context will continue to irk me and on occasion I will call it out. I due thing undue doom and anxiety should be avoided when appropriate but it is not an opinion shared by everyone.

I was probably but over sensitive in my reply to you, no worries at all.

 

For reference that table that’s in the article wasn’t there this morning. I wasn’t that sleepy when I read I missed the thing. 😂

[steviewevie]

 

[Tommy101]

7 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I was probably but over sensitive in my reply to you, no worries at all.

 

For reference that table that’s in the article wasn’t there this morning. I wasn’t that sleepy when I read I missed the thing. 😂

And I have re-read the articles I read this morning and can't find where is says Portsmouth only has 1 case so I'm sure that's been edited too. They're gaslighting us! 😅

It might be Portsmouth has gone from 1 to 2 cases and IOW only has the one case as @Henrik mentioned though.

[northernringo]

Hopefully some good news from the Oxford vaccine:

'Right response' seen in vaccine trials

The right sort of immune response has been seen in trials for a potential Covid-19 vaccine at the University of Oxford, a parliamentary hearing has been told.

The trials have now entered the Phase III clinical stage.

Sarah Gilibert, professor of vaccinology at the university, told the government committee that the trial had enrolled 8,000 volunteers for the next stage.

She could not give a timeline for when the vaccine - which was licensed to AstraZeneca - might be ready, as it depends on the results of the trial.

[steviewevie]

I know someone who works pretty high up for public health england and he is extremely fucked off. Can't wait for an inquiry. Says No.10 just can't be trusted, all blokey and matey on one hand and then the other trying to shift blame onto PHE, briefing etc. Getting very nasty and personal apparently. Says he'd like to write a book about it all one day

[Crazyfool01]

39 minutes ago, semmtexx said:

Don’t worry! I did get that!

Not always clear over the net hey?! 
😁

indeed ... need to get my brain semi functioning again

[Quark]

5 minutes ago, northernringo said:

Hopefully some good news from the Oxford vaccine:

'Right response' seen in vaccine trials

The right sort of immune response has been seen in trials for a potential Covid-19 vaccine at the University of Oxford, a parliamentary hearing has been told.

The trials have now entered the Phase III clinical stage.

Sarah Gilibert, professor of vaccinology at the university, told the government committee that the trial had enrolled 8,000 volunteers for the next stage.

She could not give a timeline for when the vaccine - which was licensed to AstraZeneca - might be ready, as it depends on the results of the trial.

So here's a question that the better informed on here may be able to answer.

If this produces a functioning and approved vaccine, we (and I mean the global we) have a pathway out of this nonsense.

Presumably AstraZeneca, like any company that produces stuff, has a finite capacity for manufacturing. In which case the distribution of said vaccine is inherently limited by their capacity.

So what then?  Would that licence allow other companies to produce the vaccine, at least temporarily to meet global demand? Would that be down to AZ to decide? And if so, what chance that the global population is stiffed by commercial gain?

[squirrelarmy]

6 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

indeed ... need to get my brain semi functioning again

I know a good neuro if you want something sorting in there 😂

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, squirrelarmy said:

I know a good neuro if you want something sorting in there 😂

ive had many offers of help from this site but thats a new one  

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, Quark said:

So here's a question that the better informed on here may be able to answer.

If this produces a functioning and approved vaccine, we (and I mean the global we) have a pathway out of this nonsense.

Presumably AstraZeneca, like any company that produces stuff, has a finite capacity for manufacturing. In which case the distribution of said vaccine is inherently limited by their capacity.

So what then?  Would that licence allow other companies to produce the vaccine, at least temporarily to meet global demand? Would that be down to AZ to decide? And if so, what chance that the global population is stiffed by commercial gain?

Theyve made deals with the EU and Brazil already. I think theyve already started production before the Trial ends

[Quark]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Theyve made deals with the EU and Brazil already. I think theyve already started production before the Trial ends

Ta, answers that question then