When will this shit end?

[Ryan1984]

3 minutes ago, tumbles said:

I can really see this gov trying to force the vaccine out before year end regardless of its long term impact, I mean they've already got an order for 40m of the Oxford one placed to be ready for Sept..  Cummings won't give a fuck about if its safe or not.. 

I think someone on here pointed out how Trump will also be desperate for a vaccine before the votes. If he gets one (safe or not), our lot will jump on it.

[DeanoL]

6 minutes ago, Cream Soda said:

The more I think about testing on entry the more I can't see it working.  What if someone has sat on a busy coach for 5 hours then tests positive and gets turned away.  They could have infected people on the coach who are then going into the festival to mingle with 1000s of others.  I agree with @Deaf Nobby Burton it would have to be done in advance, but could this not be open to abuse?

You'd presumably need it done in advance to even get on the coach. It's certainly not a perfect system, but that's sort of not the point. It's trying to reduce risk. Assuming community transmission continues to fall, if you have a system that then reduces that by another 90% or so then you're at a level of risk most people would be happy with.

[Cream Soda]

6 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

If Glastonbury has gone ahead statistically only around 100 people would’ve had it on site without any testing, so testing in advance might bring that down to sub 50 maybe.

Thinking about it, it’s probably more important to be tested after than before. It would be hard to do once the event was over, but of everyone who went committed to a test on day the Tuesday after attendance, that would actually be far more effective and useful than trying to test beforehand.

With those numbers (and hopefully even lower by this time next year) maybe testing won't even be necessary at all.  

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

4 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

You'd presumably need it done in advance to even get on the coach. It's certainly not a perfect system, but that's sort of not the point. It's trying to reduce risk. Assuming community transmission continues to fall, if you have a system that then reduces that by another 90% or so then you're at a level of risk most people would be happy with.

Exactly, plus you have to factor in everything else that is going ahead (shops, pub openings) They are lower risk of spread than a festival, but you don’t need a test to go to them. The testing system would just help equalise the risk of spread etc, not eliminate it. 

[Old_Johno]

What time frame would you do advanced testing in? 2 weeks before? 1 week? A few days? The processing would be monumental, plus the risk of catching it between testing and arriving.

I’d guess self assessment form (which everyone will say they’re fine on) and temp check using non contact thermometer on arrival/ before getting on the bus. Will be more to cover their backs than any effective virus control.

hopefully by next summer it will be considered a winter problem like regular flu. 

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, Old_Johno said:

What time frame would you do advanced testing in? 2 weeks before? 1 week? A few days? The processing would be monumental, plus the risk of catching it between testing and arriving.

I’d guess self assessment form (which everyone will say they’re fine on) and temp check using non contact thermometer on arrival/ before getting on the bus. Will be more to cover their backs than any effective virus control.

hopefully by next summer it will be considered a winter problem like regular flu. 

It would have to be 2 days max I would think. 
 

For me I’m lucky that I can work from home so I would self isolate for 2 weeks before then 2 weeks after. 

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

It would have to be 2 days max I would think. 
 

For me I’m lucky that I can work from home so I would self isolate for 2 weeks before then 2 weeks after. 

Can’t see that happening 4 weeks is a vast proportion of most people’s annual holiday allowance ..... 

[Ozanne]

5 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Can’t see that happening 4 weeks is a vast proportion of most people’s annual holiday allowance ..... 

Oh I know, it’s not viable for many. Just saying what I would do as I can work from home. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

12 minutes ago, Old_Johno said:

What time frame would you do advanced testing in? 2 weeks before? 1 week? A few days? The processing would be monumental, plus the risk of catching it between testing and arriving.

I’d guess self assessment form (which everyone will say they’re fine on) and temp check using non contact thermometer on arrival/ before getting on the bus. Will be more to cover their backs than any effective virus control.

hopefully by next summer it will be considered a winter problem like regular flu. 

I would’ve thought two weeks before would be a waste of time as if you had it you could self isolate for a week and be fine to attend. It would surely have to be a week before max. But I think the point is it’s not a perfect system, but depending on the amount of virus in circulation a week before the festival it should help bring the number of infected people on site down to very low levels. By then we’ll have more herd immunity and more might be known about potential cross immunisation, viral loads needed from asymptomatic people to cause infection etc. 

[Toilet Duck]

50 minutes ago, tumbles said:

I can really see this gov trying to force the vaccine out before year end regardless of its long term impact, I mean they've already got an order for 40m of the Oxford one placed to be ready for Sept..  Cummings won't give a fuck about if its safe or not.. 

I think you are over-estimating Dom’s influence! That’s really not how this works. The vaccine (like any drug) will be approved for use based on the trial data by  the EMA in Europe and the FDA in the US (and other regulatory bodies elsewhere). The government (any government) has no influence on this. They can decide if they would like to pay for it once it’s approved, but that’s about it. 

[Toilet Duck]

2 hours ago, Cream Soda said:

So they have 5 stages of what they want to do...but is there any info about how they plan to bring it about or what goals need to be met before they can move on to the next stage?  I can't find anything.  

Unless things get set back again in the winter...but let's hope not.  

Is there a level of infection that would be considered low enough to remove the precautions in shops, social distancing, masks etc?  Surely we need to be at that point before mass gatherings can even be considered?  Maybe one for @Toilet Duck

 

If they need to have test results for entry to mass gatherings, based on what we are doing before we let our students into clinical settings, I’d hazard a guess at a test about a week before. 

[JoeyT]

5 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

I think you are over-estimating Dom’s influence! That’s really not how this works. The vaccine (like any drug) will be approved for use based on the trial data by  the EMA in Europe and the FDA in the US (and other regulatory bodies elsewhere). The government (any government) has no influence on this. They can decide if they would like to pay for it once it’s approved, but that’s about it. 

The million dollar question but where do you see us in a years time @Toilet Duck?

[steviewevie]

10 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

I think you are over-estimating Dom’s influence! That’s really not how this works. The vaccine (like any drug) will be approved for use based on the trial data by  the EMA in Europe and the FDA in the US (and other regulatory bodies elsewhere). The government (any government) has no influence on this. They can decide if they would like to pay for it once it’s approved, but that’s about it. 

You don't think Trump will try and push FDA to approve a vaccine early to help his election chances?

[efcfanwirral]

34 minutes ago, Old_Johno said:

What time frame would you do advanced testing in? 2 weeks before? 1 week? A few days? The processing would be monumental, plus the risk of catching it between testing and arriving.

I’d guess self assessment form (which everyone will say they’re fine on) and temp check using non contact thermometer on arrival/ before getting on the bus. Will be more to cover their backs than any effective virus control.

hopefully by next summer it will be considered a winter problem like regular flu. 

I'm really hoping the next few weeks shows this to be true. That might save our festivals but will still absolutely destroy the live music industry as a whole due to the need to have no indoor gigs 

[Toilet Duck]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

You don't think Trump will try and push FDA to approve a vaccine early to help his election chances?

Not a hope. 

[Toilet Duck]

8 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

The million dollar question but where do you see us in a years time @Toilet Duck?

It would be a guess at this stage, but a year is a long time. I’d expect at least one of the vaccines to either be already rolled out, or rolling out. I’d expect treatment to be even better and I’d expect some serious developments in testing. I’d be pretty optimistic at this stage. Plenty of time to figure out how we manage this.

[Toilet Duck]

20 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

You don't think Trump will try and push FDA to approve a vaccine early to help his election chances?

Sorry, I should qualify that a bit. Of course regulatory agencies are lobbied by drug companies and others. They are generally only successful at over-turning approval decisions if they can prove some other benefit of their product. There have been some products approved with limited efficacy. Safety on the other hand is not something that can be negotiated.

added to the fact that most government agencies have not been well supported by the Trump administration, I expect there are not many who would be well disposed to risking their careers to get him re-elected.

[zahidf]

24 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

It would be a guess at this stage, but a year is a long time. I’d expect at least one of the vaccines to either be already rolled out, or rolling out. I’d expect treatment to be even better and I’d expect some serious developments in testing. I’d be pretty optimistic at this stage. Plenty of time to figure out how we manage this.

OK cool. Any developments you've seen recently? 

 

I saw this, which is apparently a recombinant antivirus

 

 

 

[Toilet Duck]

3 minutes ago, zahidf said:

OK cool. Any developments you've seen recently? 

 

I saw this, which is apparently a recombinant antivirus

 

 

 

Yeah the Chinese vaccine looks very promising too. Potent antibody response from it. 

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Yeah the Chinese vaccine looks very promising too. Potent antibody response from it. 

Tiny bit ominous quote of 'no comment about whether the vaccine is compulsory or voluntary ' aside, its optimistic!

[Toilet Duck]

5 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Tiny bit ominous quote of 'no comment about whether the vaccine is compulsory or voluntary ' aside, its optimistic!

You said it! I think the key thing left to be tested with all the vaccines is how well they work in high risk older populations. Most of the trials are using younger volunteers, so we’ve yet to see how well they can protect the most vulnerable. Of course, if enough low risk people get vaccinated, it protects others, but given the attitude to mask wearing, I’d be less optimistic about uptake. 

[tumbles]

1 minute ago, Toilet Duck said:

You said it! I think the key thing left to be tested with all the vaccines is how well they work in high risk older populations. Most of the trials are using younger volunteers, so we’ve yet to see how well they can protect the most vulnerable. Of course, if enough low risk people get vaccinated, it protects others, but given the attitude to mask wearing, I’d be less optimistic about uptake. 

Do you think when they do start to roll these out in EU/UK etc that they'll go for NHS workers/key staff and then perhaps those of us shielding next? 

[Toilet Duck]

1 minute ago, tumbles said:

Do you think when they do start to roll these out in EU/UK etc that they'll go for NHS workers/key staff and then perhaps those of us shielding next? 

Frontline staff for sure, and normally, high risk groups would also be first in line. How well any of the vaccines work in this group is still unknown though.

[tumbles]

1 minute ago, Toilet Duck said:

Frontline staff for sure, and normally, high risk groups would also be first in line. How well any of the vaccines work in this group is still unknown though.

It's interesting from personal point of view. As someone who has Crohns I was in hospital late Jan and came out of it on course of the usual prednisolone for 8 weeks. At same time I was still on azathioprine and ustekinumab so instantly went into the sheilding group. However because I dropped the later two and stopped steroids and started on another biological drug I'm out of it again.   What did surprise me was that people with asthma were told they could have prednisolone if they developed COV-19 and had difficulty breathing. 

[Simsy]

1 hour ago, Toilet Duck said:

It would be a guess at this stage, but a year is a long time. I’d expect at least one of the vaccines to either be already rolled out, or rolling out. I’d expect treatment to be even better and I’d expect some serious developments in testing. I’d be pretty optimistic at this stage. Plenty of time to figure out how we manage this.

If @Toilet Duck is pretty optimistic, that's good enough for me! 😁