When will this shit end?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

9 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Let’s hope the trend continues. Our 1000 positive tests a day are still far too high, compared to countries like Germany where there are only 20-30 positive tests a day.

Thing is, for me personally, I have no interest in going and spending my money in non essential shops. For several reasons 1. I can shop online if I really need anything 2. I don’t want to be lining up in horrendous queuelines down the street to get into the shops and 3. I kind of agree about the being “scared” thing. I’m not particularly scared, however I just don’t fancy going to a poorly ventilated indoor space where people aren’t wearing face masks if I don’t have to.

Sure, but the good news is the only thing that isn’t really priced into that data are the protests, so we can be safe in the knowledge that everything else up to them hasn’t had any negative impact on cases dropping. The pattern of the ONS data for infection rates over the last few weeks has gone 1/400, 1/1000, and then 1/1666 of the population infected. So that’s a pretty consistent rate of fall and suggests there is still plenty of slack within the easing of measures.

I personally don’t think the protests will impact this national figure, I don’t see how they can. They could lead to more cases locally, but then if the national trend is down they should still fall back locally again anyway. 

[steviewevie]

 

[Waterdeep]

@Toilet Duck do you know how accurate the antibody testing is? Is it something that can be pretty accurate from the get go or does it take time to finesse? According to this (if I'm doing the numbers right!), out of 255 cases only 12 had antibodies after 40 days (8 of which were neutralising), and only 2 had neutralising antibodies after 3 months.

https://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=113212

[zahidf]

They basically need to open up leisure more. I'll go out for a bar or entertainment and maybe go into a shop on the way, but im not going to randomly go into a shop for stuff. 

[Crazyfool01]

 

[Ozanne]

18 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

Wow. This warms my cold, cynical heart. 

[FestivalJamie]

36 minutes ago, zahidf said:

They basically need to open up leisure more. I'll go out for a bar or entertainment and maybe go into a shop on the way, but im not going to randomly go into a shop for stuff. 

4th July more things will open up. I'm going to try and go to the zoos next week but as you said im not randomly going into shops for stuff either.

[Ozanne]

48 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

Starmer has the best ratings for any Opposition leader since Tony Blair in the mid-90s!

[zahidf]

The Republic of Ireland will not enter full lockdown again even if there is a second wave of the virus, the country’s chief medical officer says - despite EU health experts warning that further lockdowns could be needed.

Dr Tony Holohan says that as the country knows more about Covid-19 than it did in March, when restrictions were first introduced, it will be able to take a different course.

“I wouldn’t be anticipating at this point in time that we would move back to blanket closures in the way we did in March,” he told Irish state broadcaster RTE.

“People understand more about the disease, the risks and how they can protect themselves when it comes to hand hygiene and respiratory etiquette.

“If a resurgence of the disease happened or a second wave, we would know what specific measures to take, having done our work proactively."

[Toilet Duck]

59 minutes ago, Waterdeep said:

@Toilet Duck do you know how accurate the antibody testing is? Is it something that can be pretty accurate from the get go or does it take time to finesse? According to this (if I'm doing the numbers right!), out of 255 cases only 12 had antibodies after 40 days (8 of which were neutralising), and only 2 had neutralising antibodies after 3 months.

https://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=113212

Depending on the test, the Antibody test iA very accurate. Here, it’s not that only 12 had antibodies, but of 12 that they followed up, at least 8 still had neutralising antibodies 40 days later, 2 of those had been exposed over 3 months ago and had a persistent antibody response. The interesting things are that asymptomatic transmission appears to have occurred, and masks were better than social distancing and staying away from common areas!

[Waterdeep]

15 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Depending on the test, the Antibody test iA very accurate. Here, it’s not that only 12 had antibodies, but of 12 that they followed up, at least 8 still had neutralising antibodies 40 days later, 2 of those had been exposed over 3 months ago and had a persistent antibody response. The interesting things are that asymptomatic transmission appears to have occurred, and masks were better than social distancing and staying away from common areas!

Ah ok, I misread. So from the 12 that they followed up on, 83% had no immunity after 3 months?

[Toilet Duck]

2 minutes ago, Waterdeep said:

Ah ok, I misread. So from the 12 that they followed up on, 83% had no immunity after 3 months?

No, they haven’t followed them up for 3 months yet! At 40 days 8/12 still had immunity

[zahidf]

 

[Waterdeep]

20 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

No, they haven’t followed them up for 3 months yet! At 40 days 8/12 still had immunity

It seems to be poorly explained (or most likely I'm misreading it!), where does it say they haven't been followed up for three months yet?

[steviewevie]

race war this weekend, to go along with the culture war.

Live on Sky.

[zahidf]

 

[Homer]

16 hours ago, rascalpete said:

What are your guys thoughts on the timescales for air bridges. Do you think we will see restrictions lifted by the end of June?

Where are you thinking of going? I listened to Smon Calder from the Independent/BBC the other day and he said that requirements to quarantine on arrival in Greece (where I'm booked for in Oct incidentally) were currently in place, but could be lifted on, funnily enough, 30th June.  

Edited June 12, 2020 by Homer

[zahidf]

Just now, Homer said:

Where are you thinking of going. I listened to Smon Calder from the Independent/BBC the other day and he said that requirements to lockdown in Greece (where I'm booked for in Oct incidentally) were currently in place, but could be lifted on, funnily enough, 30th June.  

I reckon July.

Deaths and infections seem massively down.

[Homer]

6 hours ago, steviewevie said:

Scary numbers coming out of ONS this morning. 20.4% GDP drop in April! They predict it to fall 11.5% for year if no 2nd wave, 14% if needed a 2nd lockdown.

Newnight was interesting last night. They were going on about how govt messaging worked well in scarying everyone into staying home, and now they need to get the economy going but people are still too scared.

Juts saw this on BBC news, followed by Gove saying we won't be extending the transition period.

Just popping down to the jobcentre to apply for info on how to retrain as a disaster capitalist.

[DeanoL]

3 hours ago, FestivalJamie said:

Thing is, for me personally, I have no interest in going and spending my money in non essential shops. For several reasons 1. I can shop online if I really need anything 

If you've been shopping online for leisure stuff the whole lockdown anyway, then at least on a macro-economic scale that's fine - you're putting the money back into the UK economy. It's important to realise a large part of the country still don't shop online for things you can buy on the high street. For many of those people they've just not been buying stuff. 

[Homer]

3 minutes ago, zahidf said:

I reckon July.

Deaths and infections seem massively down.

Calder also said that we are the only country in Europe that is being asked to quarantine on arrival.

[zahidf]

https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/exclusive-five-out-ten-lawyers-want-work-home-good

 

50% of solicitors looking to wfh from now on. Wouldnt want to be in commercial property at the moment. 

[zahidf]

Interesting. People want to go out more

 

[steviewevie]

eat a restaurant?

[Crazyfool01]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

eat a restaurant?

people have gone hungry in some places