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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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Pubs open near me Harrogate Pubs

Can you believe it!  Police went along and did nothing apart from asking people to stand 2m apart, which then seems to have been ignored.  They were serving take out pints and then crowds just stood outside, or on The Stray (a park) across the road drinking.  One bar even put chairs and tables out in the park over the road.

If that is what is allowed under the takeaway rules then every pub with a park/village green/beach etc nextdoor would open again.

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5 minutes ago, Northtim said:

Pubs open near me Harrogate Pubs

Can you believe it!  Police went along and did nothing apart from asking people to stand 2m apart, which then seems to have been ignored.  They were serving take out pints and then crowds just stood outside, or on The Stray (a park) across the road drinking.  One bar even put chairs and tables out in the park over the road.

If that is what is allowed under the takeaway rules then every pub with a park/village green/beach etc nextdoor would open again.

weather goes a bit shit from wednesday

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3 minutes ago, Northtim said:

Pubs open near me Harrogate Pubs

Can you believe it!  Police went along and did nothing apart from asking people to stand 2m apart, which then seems to have been ignored.  They were serving take out pints and then crowds just stood outside, or on The Stray (a park) across the road drinking.  One bar even put chairs and tables out in the park over the road.

If that is what is allowed under the takeaway rules then every pub with a park/village green/beach etc nextdoor would open again.

I think with the way the government have eased lockdown, their only concern is keeping people outdoors rather than indoors. Therefore the police have probably been instructed to do nothing about people gathering outside less than 2m apart.

It is clear the government know more than us when it comes to this virus which they are not revealing. To me, it looks like the main risks from this virus come from the spread of the virus in indoor areas, rather than outside. So, they are probably not too worried about people socialising in outdoor areas as long as people don’t start moving their gatherings indoors. 

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10 minutes ago, Northtim said:

If that is what is allowed under the takeaway rules then every pub with a park/village green/beach etc nextdoor would open again.

I think al fresco drinking is the plan for pubs in the near future. Lots of temporary pedestrianisation of city centres. Some pubs may have been granted early permission as a test for this but not made it public for obvious reasons. 

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1 hour ago, st dan said:

https://twitter.com/profkarolsikora/status/1267358646532521984?s=21
 

In amidst all the doom and gloom, there are definite signs that the light at the end of the dark tunnel may not be too far away. Think it’s better if people start reading the positive stories now, obvious with a tinge of caution. 

I agree. I'm positive. Doesn't do me any benefit whatsoever to be all gloom and doom.

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1 hour ago, st dan said:

https://twitter.com/profkarolsikora/status/1267358646532521984?s=21
 

In amidst all the doom and gloom, there are definite signs that the light at the end of the dark tunnel may not be too far away. Think it’s better if people start reading the positive stories now, obvious with a tinge of caution. 

Presumably with the spread only happening within countries because of borders being closed this would be Italy getting lucky? And we can just hope for the same here with no guarantees? Waiting for our oracle Toilet Duck 😂

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1 hour ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I hope that’s true. So as we’ve seen with many other viruses, literally burning out eventually.

I agree we all need to try and seek some balance, I personally need to avoid twitter as much as possible

Would be interested to get forum legend @Toilet Duck’s opinion on it though.

Could this be a possible reason why infections are remaining fairly flat and constant from one week to the next in England now, but deaths are still falling? Or am I just completely making that up?

Howdy, I honestly don’t know if the virus is “weakening”, but there is certainly a lot less of it about at the moment (which may explain lower viral loads)...I still think summer will have some impact on it (just based on what happens to other coronaviruses and respiratory viruses in general). There’s lots of people out and about now, but I do see significant changes in behaviour (there’s always some idiots, but many are being fairly sensible) so I too am optimistic (have been for a while, though to be fair, it’s my default position!...not based on blind optimism, but borne of a belief that if things are bad, we can always do something and change them). Really the key is having a robust surveillance system now...post-suppression you get the chance to go back to containment if you do it correctly, so that’s where the effort should be focussed and where clear information helps the public to play a role too. Still a good way to go, but there is definitely light at the end of the tunnel!

 

edit: when looking at infection rates, there’s some important things to consider...look at the % positive tests, I haven’t paid close attention to the UK, but here, with similar numbers of tests per week, the % positive is steadily dropping. Also, where the positive cases are. Clusters in healthcare settings still pose a risk, but it’s not the same as chasing a virus that is rapidly spreading through the community. Again, haven’t seen breakdowns for the UK, but here, community transmission was all but extinguished a couple of weeks ago and the 50 or so cases per day we still get are in high risk settings...it was the same in most other places, so if not now, then soon it will be the same in the UK. Different countries have different capacities to deal with cases. France reckons 4000 cases per day is manageable for them, so, the UK will have a number in mind too. Again, if hospital admissions/ICU admissions are below trigger points, then things will open back up (and you can make your own personal assessment of risk and do things you are comfortable with, while avoiding things you think are too risky). If it starts to spread freely again and ICU admissions spike because of that, then a step back will occur. I was on a conference call with a doctor from London about 5 weeks ago (he had picked up COVID from a patient), but he said their hospital admissions had fallen off a cliff (ICU still had a fair few people in, but not full and admissions were way down). So, if that was the case on the ground in London 5 weeks or so ago, I’d expect it to be significantly better by now.

Edited by Toilet Duck
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57 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Howdy, I honestly don’t know if the virus is “weakening”, but there is certainly a lot less of it about at the moment (which may explain lower viral loads)...I still think summer will have some impact on it (just based on what happens to other coronaviruses and respiratory viruses in general). There’s lots of people out and about now, but I do see significant changes in behaviour (there’s always some idiots, but many are being fairly sensible) so I too am optimistic (have been for a while, though to be fair, it’s my default position!...not based on blind optimism, but borne of a belief that if things are bad, we can always do something and change them). Really the key is having a robust surveillance system now...post-suppression you get the chance to go back to containment if you do it correctly, so that’s where the effort should be focussed and where clear information helps the public to play a role too. Still a good way to go, but there is definitely light at the end of the tunnel!

 

edit: when looking at infection rates, there’s some important things to consider...look at the % positive tests, I haven’t paid close attention to the UK, but here, with similar numbers of tests per week, the % positive is steadily dropping. Also, where the positive cases are. Clusters in healthcare settings still pose a risk, but it’s not the same as chasing a virus that is rapidly spreading through the community. Again, haven’t seen breakdowns for the UK, but here, community transmission was all but extinguished a couple of weeks ago and the 50 or so cases per day we still get are in high risk settings...it was the same in most other places, so if not now, then soon it will be the same in the UK. Different countries have different capacities to deal with cases. France reckons 4000 cases per day is manageable for them, so, the UK will have a number in mind too. Again, if hospital admissions/ICU admissions are below trigger points, then things will open back up (and you can make your own personal assessment of risk and do things you are comfortable with, while avoiding things you think are too risky). If it starts to spread freely again and ICU admissions spike because of that, then a step back will occur. I was on a conference call with a doctor from London about 5 weeks ago (he had picked up COVID from a patient), but he said their hospital admissions had fallen off a cliff (ICU still had a fair few people in, but not full and admissions were way down). So, if that was the case on the ground in London 5 weeks or so ago, I’d expect it to be significantly better by now.

Thanks TD, insightful as always.

I’m inclined to agree as far as being positive. We’re being bombarded with viewpoints about this and the papers and the media seem to revel in reporting on crowded beaches. I think this creates a sense of unease amongst people. As you say there will always be idiots and people who didn’t follow the rules, but in the main people are still adhering to them, and I like to think of it the other way and think about all the things that aren’t currently happening that would be normally and were before lockdown. All the empty offices, sporting events, festivals etc. The tap has still only been loosened slightly.

I know you’ve not been following the U.K. but I think one major cause for concern for people is this idea that there are still 8000 infections a day:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/29/covid-19-spreading-too-fast-to-lift-uk-lockdown-sage-adviser
 

However that’s based on projections and predictions on the actual data. Our actual last positive infection test figure was 1900 positive cases, which is in line with what you say about France, and I assume the numbers you quote for Ireland are based on actual tests, not projections so it’s all relative?

 

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton
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I don’t particularly agree with much Nicola Sturgeon says, I am totally against breaking up the union, but I am so happy to hear her having a go at those who went against the lockdown measures here at the weekend. Far too many got into cars and drove more than the recommended 5 miles. Nearly 800 dispersal of groups were done by the police, Loch Lomond was very busy.  She is emphasising the need to keep up with the hand washing, distancing, mask wearing etc. Her briefings are a lot clearer and to the point than we hear elsewhere.  All with the threat that if folk don’t comply that the recommendations will be put in law. 

Hopefully Boris and co also emphasise that certain scenes over the weekend aren’t acceptable. We’ve come so far to lose it now. 

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2 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Thanks TD, insightful as always.

I’m inclined to agree as far as being positive. We’re being bombarded with viewpoints about this and the papers and the media seem to revel in reporting on crowded beaches. I think this creates a sense of unease amongst people. As you say there will always be idiots and people who didn’t follow the rules, but in the main people are still adhering to them, and I like to think of it the other way and think about all the things that aren’t currently happening that would be normally and were before lockdown. All the empty offices, sporting events, festivals etc. The tap has still only been loosened slightly.

I know you’ve not been following the U.K. but I think one major cause for concern for people is this idea that there are still 8000 infections a day:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/29/covid-19-spreading-too-fast-to-lift-uk-lockdown-sage-adviser
 

However that’s based on projections and predictions on the actual data. Our actual last positive infection test figure was 1900 positive cases, which is in line with what you say about France, and I assume the numbers you quote for Ireland are based on actual tests, not projections so it’s all relative?

 

Hi Nobby, yes, our case numbers are actual cases, not projected cases (I did see 8000 per day quoted somewhere for the UK and was confused as I thought it was closer to 2k and holding firm). If all of those are in high risk settings and not as a result of community transmission, then testing and contact tracing can (in theory) contain them. I was a little shocked at the level of training contact tracers in the UK were reported to have received (about 30 mins, a FAQ, a script and an instruction to look at videos on YouTube), whereas my own institution has trained about half of the contact tracers in Ireland and it was a week of face-to-face (socially distanced!) training. But whether that is actually the case or whether this was for extra bodies to bolster the system was not entirely clear from the reporting. I’m sure there must be some properly trained folk involved at some level. 

you are correct though, loads of things that would be happening still aren’t, so mostly it’s lower risk activities that are opening up again. I took the little one out for a ride on her bike yesterday. Our local park was packed, but it was of clusters of either families or 3/4 friends sitting on the grass a good 10-20 feet from each other. I saw nothing risky and found it uplifting to see people getting back to some sort of normality in a low risk way. The beach is also packed, but everyone is leaving plenty of space for each other, and queuing at shops etc is well organised, less browsing, and people are moving through quickly. So, at the moment, I don’t see vast amounts of high risk activity that could lead to a massive resurgence...unless containment in high risk settings is mismanaged. Personally, I’d leave the schools closed for the sake of a few weeks, and heaving pubs/clubs/gigs are still a way off. But now is the time to take stock of what we know about this specific virus and adapt our public heath plans from the influenza-driven protocols we used the outset, to coronavirus-specific plans to continue easing back to normal.

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6 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

People queueing for up to 4 hours to get into Ikea...shows people are desperate to get back to doing normal stuff like going to shops, but the actual shopping experience is not going to be normal or fun.

It’s probably lovely once you’re in there... just not the four hour queue bit.

Ive been to my local garden centre once, about a 20 minute queue to get in, but a significantly nicer experience once you’re in there. 

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23 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

People queueing for up to 4 hours to get into Ikea...shows people are desperate to get back to doing normal stuff like going to shops, but the actual shopping experience is not going to be normal or fun.

Just saw the IKEA queue on telly there, massive line snaking round and round the car park.  

Can you imagine the social distancing queue to get into Glasto? The Gate A queue would start at Street/Glastonbury shopping centre!

Quick edit:  thinking about it and on @crazyfool1 advice, it would probably stretch to J23 of the M5! With a three times round the Tor slalom. 

Edited by Ayrshire Chris
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1 minute ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

Just saw the IKEA queue on telly there, massive line snaking round and round the car park.  

Can you imagine the social distancing queue to get into Glasto? The Gate A queue would start at Street/Glastonbury shopping centre!

I think if you work it out it will be much longer than that .... although they could shorten it by installing more slaloms that we all love !!

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7 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

It’s probably lovely once you’re in there... just not the four hour queue bit.

Ive been to my local garden centre once, about a 20 minute queue to get in, but a significantly nicer experience once you’re in there. 

Yeah, nice once in...I guess (you allowed to touch stuff?), but spontaneity will be gone for a while. Can't just pop to the shops. Probably be same with restaurants and maybe pubs when they open, have to pre-book a table for a certain time...

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Yep, I went to Crystal Palace park three times over the last two days and each day there were piles of rubbish everywhere. Bad enough at the best of times, but during a pandemic? On one of the occasions there were four of five police halfheartedly trying to disperse large groups.

4A3649C1-4EE0-41B3-AA9D-2ED218AC3481.jpeg

Edited by Homer
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Do we have any economists amongst us?

I'm curious as to why we are going to be in such dire straits post this.

I've found myself with more money in my pocket even though I'm furloughed due to not physically being able to go out and spend it. I'd have thought this would be the case for lots of others too?

Given this surely people will have more money to splurge once this is over with and in turn kick start the economy again.

Edited by JoeyT
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2 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Do we have any economists amongst us?

I'm curious as to why we are going to be in such dire straits post this.

I've found myself with more money in my pocket even though I'm furloughed due to not physically being able to go out and spend it. I'd have thought this would be the case for lots of others too?

Given this surely people will have more money to splurge once this is over with and in turn kick start the economy again.

I suppose the hospitality sector could be greatly affected with reduced capacity, therefore reduced income, which could lead to people being laid off. Plus haven't a a few holiday companies already gone bust? Shearings is one off the top of my head, and I'm sure there'll be more. Probaby a few airlines too 

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6 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Do we have any economists amongst us?

I'm curious as to why we are going to be in such dire straits post this.

I've found myself with more money in my pocket even though I'm furloughed due to not physically being able to go out and spend it. I'd have thought this would be the case for lots of others too?

Given this surely people will have more money to splurge once this is over with and in turn kick start the economy again.

I’ve thought this myself. I think it really depends on timing, and whether once the furloughing ends, will we see mass lay offs then anyway. Lots will depend on a second wave hitting in autumn winter or not and if we have another lock down, I suspect that would be catastrophic.

One thought I had was that this is nobodies fault and the government to be fair to them, have helped huge numbers of individuals and businesses with the furlough payments. This isn’t like a normal recession when people don’t really bat an eye lid when companies make mass redundancies.

This could be wishful thinking (in fact it almost certainly is) and obviously if it’s not financially viable then redundancies will happen, but there will be an awful lot of bad will against businesses who lay people off when financially they can avoid it, especially when they’ve had months of government support. 

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton
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3 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Do we have any economists amongst us?

I'm curious as to why we are going to be in such dire straits post this.

I've found myself with more money in my pocket even though I'm furloughed due to not physically being able to go out and spend it. I'd have thought this would be the case for lots of others too?

Given this surely people will have more money to splurge once this is over with and in turn kick start the economy again.

1. Most businesses have fixed costs for the lockdown profit, very many with little or no income during that period. It'll take more than a splurge for them to recover. Many won't.

2. The government (i.e. all of us) may have to borrow £300 billion for all of this (£300,000,000,000). We have to pay that back, sometime. All extra to what was budgeted for not so long ago. That's I think around £9,000 per taxpayer. Inevitably that's either austerity (Unlikely), a booming economy (Unlikely) or extra taxes. If we can all splugre as well as pay off an average of £9,000 each we're OK. Or we can leave the debt to our children.

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15 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Are people all of a sudden forgetting to tidy up after themselves ? why are we getting all this rubbish now ? 

I was wondering the same thing. Although yesterday I spent a few hours drinking cans at the foot of St Paul's Cathredral in brum. People were putting their rubbish in bins, only for me to watch it make an appearance later on as the wind carried it out of overstuffed and ill maintained bins and spread it all over the grass. Only solution is to take it home.

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Credit where it's due: the govt has certainly helped me greatly with the furlough scheme.

I only got a D in GCSE economics (which was a hell of a result considering how little work I did), but my basic understanding is that this will partly all be paid for by quantative easing (AKA printing more money). When that happens, you usually get inflation. And that usually leads to higher interest rates (feel free to correct me on some/all of this).

In 1920s Germany, people had to get wheelbarrows to take their money out. (Probably apocryphal story that someone once saw a wheelbarrow filled with cash unattended. They tipped all the money out and nicked the wheelbarrow.)

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