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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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2 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

You could absolutely go and stay with them and no one will ever do anything about it. They won't be enforcing this stuff. Just depends if you think it is safe or not.

Yeah, I guess. Still don't like the idea of it mind. I remember when lockdown first started the police were being very vigilant in Devon on stopping people and finding out where they were going. I imagine that has lessened as the lockdown has weakened. 

I think my family and I are all in agreement that we will maintain our social isolation as best we can for the next few weeks, hope that we're permitted visitation in the meantime, and if not, just sensibly take things into our own hands.

It's been five months, I'm going to lose it if I don't have a chance to see them on the horizon soon.

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3 minutes ago, WestCountryGirl said:

Yeah, I guess. Still don't like the idea of it mind. I remember when lockdown first started the police were being very vigilant in Devon on stopping people and finding out where they were going. I imagine that has lessened as the lockdown has weakened. 

I think my family and I are all in agreement that we will maintain our social isolation as best we can for the next few weeks, hope that we're permitted visitation in the meantime, and if not, just sensibly take things into our own hands.

It's been five months, I'm going to lose it if I don't have a chance to see them on the horizon soon.

The police had to close a beach in Devon, Durdle Door as people were jumping off this arch injuring themselves. So yeah there is that.

 

It seems like the government will continue to loosen the rules it feels like. 

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20 minutes ago, WestCountryGirl said:

Yeah, I guess. Still don't like the idea of it mind. I remember when lockdown first started the police were being very vigilant in Devon on stopping people and finding out where they were going. I imagine that has lessened as the lockdown has weakened. 

But it's still essentially "so what?" if you drive over in the morning. Yes officer, I'm driving 300 miles to see my parents this morning and driving 300 miles back this evening because I haven't seen them in months and it's the only way.

You're not doing anything illegal until you stay over, at which point you're safely inside and no-one is going to come arrest you. It's an unenforceable law and they absolutely know it.

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38 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Interesting article from a German modeller who has accurately predicted the spread of the virus in London.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/covid-19-expert-karl-friston-germany-may-have-more-immunological-dark-matter

Encouragingly, he's not hugely concerned about the relaxation in the UK triggering a second peak, more that there could be one whenever immunity wears off - which we don't have much idea about right now.

I felt actually pretty optimistic after reading that.

I read that earlier, the last paragraph is very interesting:

For example, it looks as if the low German fatality rate is not due to their superior testing capacity, but rather to the fact that the average German is less likely to get infected and die than the average Brit. Why? There are various possible explanations, but one that looks increasingly likely is that Germany has more immunological “dark matter” – people who are impervious to infection, perhaps because they are geographically isolated or have some kind of natural resistance. This is like dark matter in the universe: we can’t see it, but we know it must be there to account for what we can see.
 

I’ve read a couple of theories regarding cross-immunisation, a certain portion of people may simply be immune, so wouldn’t get sick or pass it on but wouldn’t have antibodies in antibody testing either. It’s strange you can get people in the same household not getting infected at all, or only a relatively small portion of a cruise ship getting it. Of course it to just a theory but it fits with the dark matter explanation.

But either way there is far too much noise regarding easing of lockdown at the moment coming from all over the place. It’s simply too early to tell. We’re behind everyone else in this, and so far there isn’t any precedent for it being too soon or for there to be a second spike. 

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton
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29 minutes ago, WestCountryGirl said:

Yeah, I guess. Still don't like the idea of it mind. I remember when lockdown first started the police were being very vigilant in Devon on stopping people and finding out where they were going. I imagine that has lessened as the lockdown has weakened. 

I think my family and I are all in agreement that we will maintain our social isolation as best we can for the next few weeks, hope that we're permitted visitation in the meantime, and if not, just sensibly take things into our own hands.

It's been five months, I'm going to lose it if I don't have a chance to see them on the horizon soon.

We are doing the same for a few weeks (my parents are drivable to and from in a day so technically allowed) just because I don't feel as comfortable visiting as I'd like to. Case numbers still too high for me to take the risk when we could just wait a bit longer. But honestly I really wouldn't worry about falling foul of the law now. It's basically a free for all from tomorrow and that has already started for most.

Edited by Zoo Music Girl
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33 minutes ago, WestCountryGirl said:

Yeah, I guess. Still don't like the idea of it mind. I remember when lockdown first started the police were being very vigilant in Devon on stopping people and finding out where they were going. I imagine that has lessened as the lockdown has weakened. 

I think my family and I are all in agreement that we will maintain our social isolation as best we can for the next few weeks, hope that we're permitted visitation in the meantime, and if not, just sensibly take things into our own hands.

It's been five months, I'm going to lose it if I don't have a chance to see them on the horizon soon.

They don’t want people inside houses because it increases the risk. Realistically what are the millions of people who go to BBQs going to do when they get pissed and want a wee? The reality is some will follow the rules to the letter, some won’t. The government are fully aware of this when making these changes. As long as you’re careful then stay over, it will be happening all over the country and never be enforced or found out. If the law allowed you to stay over from tomorrow the risk would still be identical.

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton
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17 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I read that earlier, the last paragraph is very interesting:

For example, it looks as if the low German fatality rate is not due to their superior testing capacity, but rather to the fact that the average German is less likely to get infected and die than the average Brit. Why? There are various possible explanations, but one that looks increasingly likely is that Germany has more immunological “dark matter” – people who are impervious to infection, perhaps because they are geographically isolated or have some kind of natural resistance. This is like dark matter in the universe: we can’t see it, but we know it must be there to account for what we can see.
 

I’ve read a couple of theories regarding cross-immunisation, a certain portion of people may simply be immune, so wouldn’t get sick or pass it on but wouldn’t have antibodies in antibody testing either. It’s strange you can get people in the same household not getting infected at all, or only a relatively small portion of a cruise ship getting it. Of course it to just a theory but it fits with the dark matter explanation.

But either way there is far too much noise regarding easing of lockdown at the moment coming from all over the place. It’s simply too early to tell. We’re behind everyone else in this, and so far there isn’t any precedent for it being too soon or for there to be a second spike. 

That dark matter stuff sounds a bit mental tbh

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The way the gov are relaxing things the 4th July is really gonna be the key date they open all the pubs to celebrate our independence day - you can see the headlines now!! (they don't care if a "few" plebs die) <_<

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I’ve got a friend whose a nurse at a police station. At the moment she’s taking more blood samples for drink and drug drivers than she normally does over Christmas. We’re clearly not living in normal times. 
 

Then you have the cliff jumpers at Durdle Door this weekend. Someone jumped badly and needed evacuation by air ambulance. You think that would be enough to make people think and stop jumping from a 200ft cliff. Nope it didn’t and an hour or so later the air ambulance was back out to rescue another person who had done the same thing. 
 

People are dumb. 

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12 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Because a lot of people think differently to you. Starmer has some work to do to win back all those voters lost to the tories...

The same poll had starmer at +5 for best PM and boris at -2...

 

I wouldn't get too worked up over the odd poll

 

 

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19 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Because a lot of people think differently to you. Starmer has some work to do to win back all those voters lost to the tories...

Obviously. Don’t worry. 
 

 

20 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

We've moved on from Cummings and corona is over. 

Looks like their plan has worked then!

7 minutes ago, zahidf said:

The same poll had starmer at +5 for best PM and boris at -2...

 

I wouldn't get too worked up over the odd poll

 

 

That’s interesting, I think that shows how entrenched the voters are in their dislike of Labour over the last 2 years. 

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On 5/31/2020 at 7:52 AM, blutarsky said:

 

This is not a dig at you by any means, but I’ve seen this tweet everywhere and had it sent to me a few times. I think it’s grossly misleading and helping to fuel the unease and hysteria about easing lockdown.

Firstly let’s look at Spain, only 2 new deaths? Well not exactly. Arguably one of the hardest hit countries their reporting was all all over the shop. They are now going back through their data and reattributing deaths to when they actually happened on the timeline, there is also a lag in reporting deaths so they aren’t reporting them now until they can add them accurately to the timeline:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/english.elpais.com/society/2020-05-27/coronavirus-death-toll-in-spain-rises-by-283-but-only-35-fatalities-recorded-last-week.html%3foutputType=amp

you can see they recently reported a significant minus figure because they backloaded 2000 deaths to their actual dates:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/english.elpais.com/society/2020-05-27/coronavirus-death-toll-in-spain-rises-by-283-but-only-35-fatalities-recorded-last-week.html%3foutputType=amp
 

Italy, on May 4th pretty much one month ago they eased their lockdown to allow the following: 4 million people went back to work with an uplift in public transport use of 30% that morning. Bars and restaurants could offer takeaway services, people could go and visit relatives and partners in their own regions:

 https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/italy-exit-coronavirus-lockdown-restrictions

Gyms, bars, restaurants and hairdressers are all now open in Italy, it will be at least a month or longer until that happens here.

Both Spain and Italy looking to open up tourism in the next few weeks.

So going back to May 4th how many deaths Did Italy have at that point, the point realistically we are at now but arguably they had relaxed more? Between 3-4th May they still added 200 deaths.

I’m not saying we aren’t easing things to early and we shouldn’t still be cautious, but realistically we are doing nothing different and are in no different position to most comparable countries relatively speaking.

I think there is so much noise around this, with scaring the shit out of us becoming the latest version of click bait that it’s important to try and maintain a sense of perspective and not panic yet. 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton
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As much as there is little to be gained from obsessing over polls at this point, I do think there's some encouraging signs for Labour. Starmer has had a good crisis, after a shaky start (calling for clarity on ending lockdown was not where consensus was), he has struck the right note consistently and media attempts to smear him, the absurd story about him buying his Mum some land to keep rescue donkeys backfired, entirely misjudging the public mood. The current crisis has also taken some of the media heat off of Labour, coverage of internal factional spats within the party and the spurious EHRC investigation are not cutting through as the right would want them to, if at all. 

After the financial crisis the Tories were able to sell austerity by exploiting the public's lack of understanding of the complexities of the financial system by pushing lines that were clearly not true (the economy is like a household budget, this was caused by Labour overspending etc) but received little challenge and the broad left, still reeling from the failure of the anti-war movements of the early 2000s was sluggish to confront the political nature of the crisis. They won't be able to pull the same trick twice. Small state, laissez faire government is going to be become a lot less popular over the next few years and Labour will be well placed to challenge that. 

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16 minutes ago, SalviaPlath said:

As much as there is little to be gained from obsessing over polls at this point, I do think there's some encouraging signs for Labour. Starmer has had a good crisis, after a shaky start (calling for clarity on ending lockdown was not where consensus was), he has struck the right note consistently and media attempts to smear him, the absurd story about him buying his Mum some land to keep rescue donkeys backfired, entirely misjudging the public mood. The current crisis has also taken some of the media heat off of Labour, coverage of internal factional spats within the party and the spurious EHRC investigation are not cutting through as the right would want them to, if at all. 

After the financial crisis the Tories were able to sell austerity by exploiting the public's lack of understanding of the complexities of the financial system by pushing lines that were clearly not true (the economy is like a household budget, this was caused by Labour overspending etc) but received little challenge and the broad left, still reeling from the failure of the anti-war movements of the early 2000s was sluggish to confront the political nature of the crisis. They won't be able to pull the same trick twice. Small state, laissez faire government is going to be become a lot less popular over the next few years and Labour will be well placed to challenge that. 

I agree and I hope the proves to be the case.

Some of my family who, not to be rude to them (they would admit it), are a bit naive when it comes to politics, have been bemused by the government's response in the past couple of weeks. They don't understand why they're throwing the doors open, or how the care home situation has become so dire. I think they're now really starting to realise what a Conservative government is all about and they're looking to the USA to see where we'd end up with more years of cuts and less government intervention.

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22 minutes ago, st dan said:

https://twitter.com/profkarolsikora/status/1267358646532521984?s=21
 

In amidst all the doom and gloom, there are definite signs that the light at the end of the dark tunnel may not be too far away. Think it’s better if people start reading the positive stories now, obvious with a tinge of caution. 

I hope that’s true. So as we’ve seen with many other viruses, literally burning out eventually.

I agree we all need to try and seek some balance, I personally need to avoid twitter as much as possible

Would be interested to get forum legend @Toilet Duck’s opinion on it though.

Could this be a possible reason why infections are remaining fairly flat and constant from one week to the next in England now, but deaths are still falling? Or am I just completely making that up?

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton
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36 minutes ago, st dan said:

https://twitter.com/profkarolsikora/status/1267358646532521984?s=21
 

In amidst all the doom and gloom, there are definite signs that the light at the end of the dark tunnel may not be too far away. Think it’s better if people start reading the positive stories now, obvious with a tinge of caution. 

That's bullshit. I'm sticking to the apocolypitic stuff only.

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