When will this shit end?

[steviewevie]

Leave it up to the public and then we can blame them when all goes tits up.

[steviewevie]

Just when we're allowed to go out and sunbathe the weather goes all cold.

[Crazyfool01]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Leave it up to the public and then we can blame them when all goes tits up.

It’s ok the virus loves a good bit of common sense 

[gigpusher]

10 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

If you’re that scared then your own personal risk assessment will be different to other people’s. Entering into a public space is not risk free and the government are not suggesting for a second that it is. They’re relaxing the current measures slightly with guidelines to stay 2 metres apart from a family member in a public space etc. There is still a low risk of either of you catching the virus through doing this. If a low risk is an intolerable one to either then don’t do it.

Sadly I think this is another thing which has become polarised and people seem to be of an either stay at home or fuck it do whatever you want attitude. I personally think we should have followed a New Zealand approach with continued quarantining for 14 days for anyone who wanted to come in. Being an island it is an option that was much more open to us and I think it is a sign of how little the Tory government care for human life that they didn't. I actually think they want deaths and are more than happy that it is fairly rampant among the Care Home population. They might be someone's much loved parent or grandparent but to the Tory party they are a drain and don't contribute to the economy. 

That said because we have chosen the course we have and knowing that it is not feasible to have a full lockdown for approximately a year we do have to decide how to live with this thing. It does involve people doing their own risk assessments as much as possible. The hard part is that some people have taken the attitude that they are not really at risk so don't care what they do; so I have real sympathy with those who are vulnerable or have vulnerable people in their household. I will probably take the option to do more exercise in quiet places. I am hopeful that our local National Trust properties open as with more people out and about we need more places to go. I'll be sticking to quiet or very open spaces. Sticking to avoiding supermarkets as much as possible for the time being. 

I feel most sorry for those who will have to make decisions based on needing money more than their own personal health risks. I really hope come the next election those who have buried loved ones don't forget whose policies made it happen. 

[Dave85radiohead]

I really wish people would stop banging on about herd immunity.It isn’t possible without a vaccine.

The government was irresponsible in using the phrase and people are clinging on to like it’s an option when it isn’t.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

1 minute ago, Dave85radiohead said:

I really wish people would stop banging on about herd immunity.It isn’t possible without a vaccine.

The government was irresponsible in using the phrase and people are clinging on to like it’s an option when it isn’t.

You can’t for a second say it isn’t possible without a vaccine. Unless you know how long immunity lasts once people have had it, you can’t possibly say whether it can be achieved without a vaccine or not. 

[Neil]

1 hour ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Does that it require a decent uptake or the app though, which has failed to be the case in pretty much all countries? Somebody posted something on here where pretty much every country had abandoned it. 

Track & trace doesn't need an app, tho a app is good way of doing it in the modern age.

But yeah, it looks like the app won't work in the UK based on the uptake in the IoW.

[Wooderson]

35 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Yes I do. Do you think the government should be used as a direct replacement for people’s own common sense?

The virus doesnt distinguish between these vague concepts. WTF is "common sense" anyway in the midst of a pandemic?

Would you prefer there were no rules surrounding how people used vehicles and just resorted to "common sense"? It doesnt end well.

 

[Dave85radiohead]

3 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

You can’t for a second say it isn’t possible without a vaccine. Unless you know how long immunity lasts once people have had it, you can’t possibly say whether it can be achieved without a vaccine or not. 

Yes you can.The ROI number is around 3 so you will need approximately 70-75 percent on the population to have the disease and build up immunity for it to work.

Fatality rate is currently what 0.5 percent? That equates to potentially 0.35 percent of a population of a country dying.

Its nonsense. We need a vaccine and that’s it.

 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

4 minutes ago, Neil said:

Track & trace doesn't need an app, tho a app is good way of doing it in the modern age.

But yeah, it looks like the app won't work in the UK based on the uptake in the IoW.

I personally think the jury might still be out on that. The IOW is a ridiculous place to try and test it with a higher concentration of oldies it was never going to work. That said I’m still not confident it will work on the mainland but the IOW was never going to be any sort of guide.

[efcfanwirral]

5 minutes ago, Neil said:

Track & trace doesn't need an app, tho a app is good way of doing it in the modern age.

But yeah, it looks like the app won't work in the UK based on the uptake in the IoW.

I was also under the impression the app was more to help human contact tracers find contact quicker and get info out to people more efficiently. 

Hopefully the lack of uptake is down to it being publicised as not working and we can switch to a proper one. Plus isnt the isle of wight an older population? 

 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

1 minute ago, Dave85radiohead said:

Yes you can.The ROI number is around 3 so you will need approximately 70-75 percent on the population to have the disease and build up immunity for it to work.

Fatality rate is currently what 0.5 percent? That equates to potentially 0.35 percent of a population of a country dying.

Its nonsense. We need a vaccine and that’s it.

 

Too many unknowns, when was it first here? How many cases are asymptomatic? The R0 is relative to the restrictions that are in place, it’s only 3 if the circumstances allow it to be. Herd immunity can be achieved without a vaccine, it doesn’t mean it will be, but to say it can’t is inaccurate. 

[Dave85radiohead]

4 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Too many unknowns, when was it first here? How many cases are asymptomatic? The R0 is relative to the restrictions that are in place, it’s only 3 if the circumstances allow it to be. Herd immunity can be achieved without a vaccine, it doesn’t mean it will be, but to say it can’t is inaccurate. 

I disagree sorry. It’s completely unheard of without a vaccine and the deaths rates would be so high.

Every doctor or scientist who is looking at this from a neutral stand point is saying it’s not possible without a vaccine. I have not seen one evidence based case to support it . 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Just now, Dave85radiohead said:

I disagree sorry. It’s completely unheard of without a vaccine and the deaths rates would be so high.

Every doctor or scientist who is looking at this from a neutral stand point is saying it’s not possible without a vaccine. I have not seen one evidence based case to support it . 

I don’t mean to be at all glib about the deaths, so please this is just to demonstrate a point.

Based on your maths that would be 330,000 deaths, which sadly we are already 10% towards. If a vaccine takes 18 months... or two years... or never, tell me how we don’t get to herd immunity without it?

There are simply too many unknowns to say it’s not possible without a vaccine. Without an accurate antibody test and greater knowledge of when it was here and how many cases are actually asymptomatic then nobody can possibly say either way. 

[DeanoL]

6 minutes ago, Dave85radiohead said:

I disagree sorry. It’s completely unheard of without a vaccine and the deaths rates would be so high.

Every doctor or scientist who is looking at this from a neutral stand point is saying it’s not possible without a vaccine. I have not seen one evidence based case to support it . 

You've gone from saying it's impossible to saying the death rates would be high in two posts.

It's definitely possible. Is it desirable? Perhaps not. I'm curious what you think the response should be though?

[Dave85radiohead]

2 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

You've gone from saying it's impossible to saying the death rates would be high in two posts.

It's definitely possible. Is it desirable? Perhaps not. I'm curious what you think the response should be though?

I think it is impossible . I don’t think has ever been a case of herd immunity been achieved without a vaccine but in testing that out the death numbers would be huge.
Do you think it is worth the risk? 

For me the response has to be to try and maintain a level of social distancing until a vaccine is developed through rigorously testing with a proper track and trace system implemented.

It’s not what anyone wants to happen but I that is the only way unfortunately.I want it to be over too.

Track trace and test test test.

[Doug85]

7 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

There are simply too many unknowns to say it’s not possible without a vaccine. Without an accurate antibody test and greater knowledge of when it was here and how many cases are actually asymptomatic then nobody can possibly say either way. 

This is exactly why we need an accurate reliable Antibody test. We need to do a lot of testing to find out the history of Covid 19 in this country never mind the world. We are so far behind in terms of testing though (despite the numbers Boris and co claim). 

If an antibody test can prove the history and how many have had it and more detail etc then it will be safe to open the country up more to those who have built up an immunity. I'm sure that in Korea they are given immunity passes? something similar would work here.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

3 minutes ago, Dave85radiohead said:

I think it is impossible . I don’t think has ever been a case of herd immunity been achieved without a vaccine but in testing that out the death numbers would be huge.
Do you think it is worth the risk? 

For me the response has to be to try and maintain a level of social distancing until a vaccine is developed through rigorously testing with a proper track and trace system implemented.

It’s not what anyone wants to happen but I that is the only way unfortunately.I want it to be over too.

Track trace and test test test.

Forgive my ignorance if I’m wrong with this, but without checking or looking anything up, purely off the top of my head how did Spanish flu, or swine flu die out here? 

[Dave85radiohead]

14 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Forgive my ignorance if I’m wrong with this, but without checking or looking anything up, purely off the top of my head how did Spanish flu, or swine flu die out here? 

Not sure about swine flu. I know there was a vaccination programme but there were issues with that too? I think but yep you got me with the Spanish flu.

Still I hardly think that 50 million dead is something we should be aspiring to.

I admit it is technically possible and I was wrong in that respect but I still don’t think it is a feasible strategy going forward and any talk of it been the way forward should be knocked on the head.
 

Edited May 11, 2020 by Dave85radiohead

[DeanoL]

11 minutes ago, Dave85radiohead said:

I admit it is technically possible and I was wrong in that respect but I still don’t think it is a feasible strategy going forward and any talk of it been the way forward should be knocked on the head.
 

But it is, quite literally, what the government are doing. I agree with you really. But the government are doing it right now. They're just wrapping it up in different words. And they're doing it as much because they want to save the economy as they are to eventually get herd immunity.

[efcfanwirral]

13 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

But it is, quite literally, what the government are doing. I agree with you really. But the government are doing it right now. They're just wrapping it up in different words. And they're doing it as much because they want to save the economy as they are to eventually get herd immunity.

Yeah I think you could really swap the term "herd immunity" like I used with "learning to live with it", because the numbers will never go down low enough to test and trace our way out of this now. So we have to hope for a vaccine even more than other countries who may be able to keep more on top of it. 

[steviewevie]

Downing St briefing to no longer have questions from journalists, but will just be from the public. Questions like, can I go have a cup of tea with my nan, instead of tricky ones about PPE or care homes.

[JoeyT]

Just now, steviewevie said:

Downing St briefing to no longer have questions from journalists, but will just be from the public. Questions like, can I go have a cup of tea with my nan, instead of tricky ones about PPE or care homes.

Pretty sure I've read that they've scrapped that idea and there will in fact be questions from journalists after the briefing.

Not like our government to send out mixed messages eh?

[steviewevie]

So, those that can work from home are ok, but those who can't have to take the risk if they want to keep their job.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Just now, steviewevie said:

So, those that can work from home are ok, but those who can't have to take the risk if they want to keep their job.

Unfortunately yes. What is the alternative? As I said in an earlier post for many it’s good that they’re actually needed to work, with millions of of job losses looming and a crumbling economy then actually being needed is not a bad thing overall. Are you suggesting the government pay people to stay at home indefinitely? It’s unfortunate that some jobs can be done from home and some can’t, but genuinely, how do you get round that?