When will this shit end?

[Toilet Duck]

1 minute ago, jparx said:

Aye, must mean the numbers who have had it with no/mild symptoms is much higher than first thought.

My grandad had a really nasty respiratory virus over Christmas that took him a good 3 weeks to shake. Just makes me wonder now if that was it? Looking back, his symptoms were identical, He's very healthy and he never needed to go to hospital, but he was really struggling with it. Always thought it was too early, but if the virus has potentially been around earlier than we thought, then who knows. Hope so, at least, because it (hopefully) could mean he's got some immunity to it!

There was something nasty going around over Christmas alright. I had it, as did everyone in the house. As it happens, I was in China at the end of November! Everyone who was with me on that trip had something similar over the following few weeks (so did loads of other people mind you). Never had a cough or a temp though, just aches for a few days and shivered uncontrollably at times. Who knows what it was, but it was pretty prevalent, loads of people in work had it. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

From the same article on the guardian:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/french-hospital-discovers-covid-19-case-december-retested

“He was sick for 15 days and infected his two children, but not his wife, who works in a supermarket,” he said.

“He was amazed. He didn’t understand how he had been infected. We put the puzzle together and he had not made any trips. The only contact that he had was with his wife.”

The man’s wife worked alongside a sushi stand, close to colleagues of Chinese origin, Cohen said. It was not clear whether those colleagues had travelled to China, and the local health authority should investigate, he added.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

The wife needs an antibody test. If the test was taken on 27th December the husband could’ve got it two/three weeks before that. If it was the wife who gave it to him then she must’ve been asymptomatic and again could’ve herself got it two/three weeks before that again. So not inconceivable that she got it early December.

[Ozanne]

24 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

There was something nasty going around over Christmas alright. I had it, as did everyone in the house. As it happens, I was in China at the end of November! Everyone who was with me on that trip had something similar over the following few weeks (so did loads of other people mind you). Never had a cough or a temp though, just aches for a few days and shivered uncontrollably at times. Who knows what it was, but it was pretty prevalent, loads of people in work had it. 

I had something similar to you in early Jan for just under a week. Really achey, coughing along with up and down temperature. It went around the office too. It probably wasn’t CV but it was grim. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

I can’t believe why nobody had thought to go back and test negative flu tests before now, other than an unwavering belief in the time line and what each individual country believed. That didn’t work well for the WHO just assuming everything that China said was entirely correct. I suppose the only thing that may have affected our ability to do it here is that I’m sure I read we don’t actually test for flu anyway.

[steviewevie]

I've definitely had it. At least twice.

[Toilet Duck]

14 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I can’t believe why nobody had thought to go back and test negative flu tests before now, other than an unwavering belief in the time line and what each individual country believed. That didn’t work well for the WHO just assuming everything that China said was entirely correct. I suppose the only thing that may have affected our ability to do it here is that I’m sure I read we don’t actually test for flu anyway.

Flu is a notifiable disease. If it's already been notified that it is circulating widely, then diagnosis is mainly made on symptoms and treated accordingly. If there isn't any existing public health warning, then suspected cases may be tested and this informs others in the healthcare system that it's circulating. So, really depends on when the cases turn up, middle of an outbreak, then no test generally needed, start of one, then yes, would be tested. Generally, diagnostic tests that don't change clinical management aren't done as they are a waste of resources. Makes sense really if you think about it. Walks like a duck, talks like a duck? treat as a duck. Doesn't respond? Check to see if it's a goose. 

[Havors]

12 hours ago, Ozanne said:

Apparently there’s talk that this NHS X app the government has put together will only work if the user has their phone unlocked. Surely they can’t be that dumb to make it like that?

 

The one they turned down from Apple/Google would’ve run in the background. 

That baffles me for the reason.... why would an app only work if your phone is unlocked?? That in itself makes no sense. Unlocked as in no pass code on your phone? or only works when you are using your phone having unlocked it?? Makes little sense. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

5 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Flu is a notifiable disease. If it's already been notified that it is circulating widely, then diagnosis is mainly made on symptoms and treated accordingly. If there isn't any existing public health warning, then suspected cases may be tested and this informs others in the healthcare system that it's circulating. So, really depends on when the cases turn up, middle of an outbreak, then no test generally needed, start of one, then yes, would be tested. Generally, diagnostic tests that don't change clinical management aren't done as they are a waste of resources. Makes sense really if you think about it. Walks like a duck, talks like a duck? treat as a duck. Doesn't respond? Check to see if it's a goose. 

Yes I absolutely agree, it makes sense as to why flu might not be tested for. It’s simply that where negative flu tests do exist, which France clearly have some of, why nobody thought about going back and testing them earlier. Because if it wasn’t flu then it could clearly have been Covid, and establishing precisely when it was actually circulating is one of the most important things we could hope to understand about it. If nobody really has any to test then fair enough, though.

Edited May 5, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[Toilet Duck]

1 minute ago, Havors said:

That baffles me for the reason.... why would an app only work if your phone is unlocked?? That in itself makes no sense. Unlocked as in no pass code on your phone? or only works when you are using your phone having unlocked it?? Makes little sense. 

I think the idea is that its main utility is on public transport and people are glued to their phones at that time, so their phone will be unlocked anyway. Apple and Google wanted systems where the app pushed notifications and would work in the background rather than sending information to a central database. The only way around that was what they have chosen to do and for where it will mainly work, it's probably ok (functionally). The data is exceptionally valuable. Opting in gets around GDPR. With the data being collected, additional research on all manner of things can be conducted, but it's not as secure and if it gets hacked, then the data could be mined for all sorts of things unrelated to COVID-19. Personally, I prefer the other solution (which is what most of Europe is doing)...

[efcfanwirral]

12 hours ago, Ozanne said:

Apparently there’s talk that this NHS X app the government has put together will only work if the user has their phone unlocked. Surely they can’t be that dumb to make it like that?

 

The one they turned down from Apple/Google would’ve run in the background. 

Huge increase in muggings incoming then...

The only conclusion you can take from this is that for SOME reason they don't want this app to work, and by extension don't actually want the testing and tracing to work either. It isn't some difficult technological thing older politicians don't get- they themselves use phones and know people don't have them unlocked. This is deliberate but why? 

[Crazyfool01]

The app is completely pointless for me then ... apart from reading the odd message and text maybe play some music when it’s locked .. it’s probably in my pocket not being used 90% of the time ... 

[Toilet Duck]

6 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Yes I absolutely agree, it makes sense as to why flu might not be tested for. It’s simply that where negative flu tests do exist, which France clearly have some of, why nobody thought about going back and testing them earlier. Because if it wasn’t flu then it could clearly have been Covid, and establishing precisely when it was actually circulating is one of the most important things we could hope to understand about it. If nobody really has any to test then fair enough, though.

I'd expect its more of a case of firefighting for the last couple of months and now as things settle down, all manner of reviews will take place.

Over 70s allowed out for a walk here today, so first steps along the road to getting back to something a bit more normal begin! Weather has been fantastic, pace of life that bit slower, reminds me of the 80s! (though I was a kid then, so didn't have a care in the world). It's going to feel a bit like a trip to Disneyland for a while, queues for everything, but we are a resilient bunch and we'll adapt. 

[Crazyfool01]

Out of interest @Ozanne what’s the source for this ... I can’t find it .. 

[gizmoman]

1 hour ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

We need a decent and widely available antibody test to confirm, but ultimately the earlier it was here the better really. I know it’s all anecdotal but I know so many people who have had similar things to your grandad. I mean some of them could’ve been flu, but the last time I actually had flu was at least 10 years ago. For most fit healthy people they don’t get flu every year, they get it every so often. If it was here in December or even January, the fact that our peak was in April means that hopefully easing lockdown should be that much easier in terms of doing so and avoiding a bigger spike.

Plenty of people have had similar symptoms, my sister had it back end of last year and developed pneumonia, the thing is if it was Covid 19 back then it must be far less lethal (or less transmissible) than has been proposed. There were NO excess deaths in the uk prior to the end of March, in fact there were fewer than average deaths up till then. The other possibility is that a milder version existed back then and it has mutated into a more deadly form.

[Toilet Duck]

2 minutes ago, Cream Soda said:

I was talking to a friend about this who is more techy than me.  He said it is because "bluetooth is only generally available when you're doing something on the phone, whereas this is a non-standard usage of the protocol (as opposed to, say, streaming audio to a BT car stereo)"

This article (https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/05/05/uk_coronavirus_app/) says: 

"That means that unless people have the NHS app running in the foreground and their phones awake most of the time, the fundamental principle underpinning the entire system – that phones detect each other – won’t work.

It will work if people open the app and leave it open and the phone unlocked. But if you close it and forget to reopen it, or the phone falls asleep, the app will not broadcast its ID and no other phones around you will register that you've been close by."

Sounds pretty pointless to me.  Fair enough if people are using their phones on public transport but what about when you're walking around the supermarket or when they try to ease lockdown and people start driving again?

DISCLAIMER: I don't really know what I'm talking about, everything I just wrote could be completely wrong

No, you do know what you are talking about and that pretty much sums it up. The thinking though is that transient close contact in the supermarket poses a low risk of infection, so it's not that important to track (how often are you within 2 metres of the same person for 15 minutes when walking around or in the supermarket?). But sat on a bus or a train, then you will be. It assumes people actively use their phones on public transport (many do, when I look around the majority are scrolling through social media, texting, or watching something on Netflix). Some just listen to music, but if enough people actively use their phones, then the app does what it is supposed to do. I'd still prefer the other option where Apple and Google open up bluetooth ID broadcasting when the phone is locked and it's a peer to peer notification system...

[Ozanne]

9 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Out of interest @Ozanne what’s the source for this ... I can’t find it .. 

 

 

She’s a Mathematician and Scientist who’s done a paper on tracing apps.

 

4 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

No, you do know what you are talking about and that pretty much sums it up. The thinking though is that transient close contact in the supermarket poses a low risk of infection, so it's not that important to track (how often are you within 2 metres of the same person for 15 minutes when walking around or in the supermarket?). But sat on a bus or a train, then you will be. It assumes people actively use their phones on public transport (many do, when I look around the majority are scrolling through social media, texting, or watching something on Netflix). Some just listen to music, but if enough people actively use their phones, then the app does what it is supposed to do. I'd still prefer the other option where Apple and Google open up bluetooth ID broadcasting when the phone is locked and it's a peer to peer notification system...

I get your point about supermarkets etc but for me this app is pointless. If it can only run and notify people when left open and the phone being used then for the bulk of people this isn’t going to be that useful.

 

Ideally I’d be looking for an app that runs in the background and if I go past someone that has tested positive then it alerts me. 

[Crazyfool01]

So @Toilet Duck the 2m exclusion zone whilst in supermarkets and walking past people on pavements is pretty pointless or the chances are remote/low of catching it in those circumstances ? 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

16 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

Plenty of people have had similar symptoms, my sister had it back end of last year and developed pneumonia, the thing is if it was Covid 19 back then it must be far less lethal (or less transmissible) than has been proposed. There were NO excess deaths in the uk prior to the end of March, in fact there were fewer than average deaths up till then. The other possibility is that a milder version existed back then and it has mutated into a more deadly form.

But if you consider that the rest of the world only knew about Covid at the start of January, and China only confirmed HTH transmission was possible on 21st January. So nobody anywhere in the world up to at least this point would’ve been suspecting or looking for Covid, any deaths would’ve been in very low numbers at this point spread out across many hospitals. If it has been around since December then what you say will be exactly the case, it is far less lethal overall and asymptomatic in many many more occasions.

[Toilet Duck]

1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

So @Toilet Duck the 2m exclusion zone whilst in supermarkets and walking past people on pavements is pretty pointless or the chances are remote/low of catching it in those circumstances ? 

It's a safety first approach. But if you look at where the virus is rampant, it's in enclosed spaces. Hospitals, care homes, residential settings, cruise ships, Navy vessels etc. Transmission when out an about appears to be minimal (this isn't anything new, the R0 for all infections is higher in confined/enclosed spaces). There's loads of papers showing detection of virus particles latched onto pollution, others showing airborne transmission, others showing how long it survives on different surfaces under different conditions. All of these are controlled experiments and not conducted in real world settings (I see lots of things in the lab, move into patients and it doesn't happen anymore). The best evidence we have when we don't know how it is transmitted is where infections cluster. And that's in confined spaces where people are in close contact for extended periods. People who move between these settings act as carriers and it spreads, both between these facilities and back out into the community (mostly households). So, as things open up, anything that doesn't involve being close to the same person for an extended length of time is first up for reopening, and things with extended close contact come later. I think social distancing will remain in shops etc for a good while, but it's precautionary at this stage. 

[Smeble]

34 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Huge increase in muggings incoming then...

The only conclusion you can take from this is that for SOME reason they don't want this app to work, and by extension don't actually want the testing and tracing to work either. It isn't some difficult technological thing older politicians don't get- they themselves use phones and know people don't have them unlocked. This is deliberate but why? 

How’s your foil hat?

Edited May 5, 2020 by Smeble

[Crazyfool01]

5 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

It's a safety first approach. But if you look at where the virus is rampant, it's in enclosed spaces. Hospitals, care homes, residential settings, cruise ships, Navy vessels etc. Transmission when out an about appears to be minimal (this isn't anything new, the R0 for all infections is higher in confined/enclosed spaces). There's loads of papers showing detection of virus particles latched onto pollution, others showing airborne transmission, others showing how long it survives on different surfaces under different conditions. All of these are controlled experiments and not conducted in real world settings (I see lots of things in the lab, move into patients and it doesn't happen anymore). The best evidence we have when we don't know how it is transmitted is where infections cluster. And that's in confined spaces where people are in close contact for extended periods. People who move between these settings act as carriers and it spreads, both between these facilities and back out into the community (mostly households). So, as things open up, anything that doesn't involve being close to the same person for an extended length of time is first up for reopening, and things with extended close contact come later. I think social distancing will remain in shops etc for a good while, but it's precautionary at this stage. 

Thanks TD very detailed as ever appreciated 

[fatyeti24]

We've done it guys!  Number 1 in Europe!

UK coronavirus death toll rises above 32,000 to highest in Europe

[Crazyfool01]

3 minutes ago, fatyeti24 said:

We've done it guys!  Number 1 in Europe!

UK coronavirus death toll rises above 32,000 to highest in Europe

Leaving on a high !!! (Number ) 

Edited May 5, 2020 by crazyfool1

[SalviaPlath]

Slow hand clap for the Tories getting the UK to number one, with their clueless response to this and austerity they're really racking up the needless deaths.

Hope the people that voted for them are happy, you all have blood on your hands.