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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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4 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I know a few people at my old company, there are about 150 people working there and they bought every single one of them a laptop so they can all work from home. That’s a significant enough investment that you’d assume they’ll be far more willing to allow to happen a lot more in the future. There were always rows about parking there as there wasn’t enough, letting people work from home solves that immediately as well as being far better for the environment and helping to stop the virus spreading.

Yep same here. For teams where it’s feasible, 2 days at home and 3 in the office would be great. You need to trust people obviously and it might not work for everyone, but in my workplace for example it would be a good move.

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Some interesting new analyses...

Little correlation between overall population and death toll:

741A5088-4224-419C-BFEC-0A798F28F9FC.thumb.png.2a2adab94429e234ffa8077bb78fda4e.png

little correlation between population density and death toll:

6489D900-41D6-4555-840F-4D93F75CD01A.thumb.png.80a06231e03868b8ccb49b2b88e087c0.png

much stronger correlation between locking down early and eventual death toll:

CEEDC993-711E-4F02-BA63-0FAC7B174915.thumb.png.4f079dbef678b006535ce8c805c8d664.png

all of the above was in the report from Imperial at the outset...They acknowledged that there were significant policy decisions to be made between balancing public health and economic activity, using capacity of the Health system to decide on trigger points, but early, full lockdown always gave the lowest fatality rate in their model...based on the above, their model was correct.

But, it’s unsustainable, so what do we do? Before lockdown and when I commented on the Imperial report, I suggested glimmers of hope. Pharmaceutical intervention (Resdemivir data is starting to look very promising), better testing and tracing (apps now rolling out to facilitate better tracing, antibody tests getting better but either need to be more accurate or will be when a higher % of the population is infected) and the last glimmer was change in behaviour via mask wearing. Many countries have now re-evaluated their position on masks, a strong paper in the BMJ makes a compelling case for it. More and more data now pointing in this direction...for example, compare Italy and Sth Korea:

F31EF3CA-D3C1-4B45-91C4-2280E5C3F1E7.png.b673ddc0e95ce4e6363d633822942362.png
 

same case trajectory, Korea introduced mandatory mask wearing, striking divergence in cases. But Korea also introduced earlier lockdown (see above for the effect of that!)...so, it’s not a like for like comparison. Austria v Czech republic better as they both introduced social distancing at the same point in their outbreak,  but the Czech Republic also introduced mandatory mask wearing:

7A100169-7646-4042-A749-33365E42FEF0.png.29c96115748e096d9ca51f5d66908d5d.png
 

eventually, so did Austria...look at the case numbers after they brought it in...

Arguments against mask wearing are that they encourage risky behaviour (same argument was made for bike helmets and condoms during the HIV epidemic). There are always individuals who will engage in risky behaviour, but at a population level, these interventions reduce risk.

F1216653-C158-478B-9BF3-A6B708073718.png.01267234b83392eb9f702d4aa5a08427.png
 

most studies put the transmission reduction from the mask wearer at between 6 fold and 36 fold lower. As you can see from the above study, most people wearing masks that aren’t hugely effective still reduces the R0 of the virus to 1...which stops the spread. Couple this with contact tracing using an app and we have a way out. Not perfect, but it won’t be til there’s a vaccine or a treatment that works most of the time. 

The difficulty at the moment is availability of face coverings. There still a few weeks til lockdown ends, it’s not insurmountable to tackle this and get us back to some kind of normality!

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7 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Yeah. I get the impression that the UK govt doesnt want to introduce mask wearing not because of the science but because they dont have enough masks to go around! Hopefully that will change. Mask wearing on public transport seems a no brainer.

They've only just introduced facial recognition, masks would totally screw that up.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51237665

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8 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

They've only just introduced facial recognition, masks would totally screw that up.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51237665

Retinal scans it is then! 😜

on a more serious note, expect a lot more biometrics etc for travel. Anything that doesn’t require you to touch something or hand something over will be introduced on the basis of being “safer” from an infection perspective. 

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19 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Yeah. I get the impression that the UK govt doesnt want to introduce mask wearing not because of the science but because they dont have enough masks to go around! Hopefully that will change. Mask wearing on public transport seems a no brainer.

I get the impression that’s the problem everywhere. It shouldn’t be beyond us to make simple masks for general use in vast quantities though.

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2 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Retinal scans it is then! 😜

on a more serious note, expect a lot more biometrics etc for travel. Anything that doesn’t require you to touch something or hand something over will be introduced on the basis of being “safer” from an infection perspective. 

Yes, then you'll be sat next to someone coughing over you for a few hours if you're flying.

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1 hour ago, crazyfool1 said:

I think I’d struggle not to get distracted with other things myself but FairPlay to those that can focus ... my output would probably be other things .. 

This, and instead of waiting til after work to get stoned ive found myself having wake n bakes.. I don't like working from home plus the office was a major part of my social l life.   On the grand scale of things I'm doing fine

 

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37 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

less people per flight, and a lot more expensive...like the good old days.

That's exactly how I see it, air travel will become the preserve of the "jet set" - business people and the wealthy, there was already a anti-air sentiment before this thanks to Greta and the climate change lobby, I suspect a lot of airlines will go belly up and air travel will be a fraction of what it was. Good news from the environmental perspective, not so good for those of us who have become used to cheap foreign holidays,  gap years , flying to the UK for Glastonbury etc.

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3 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

That's exactly how I see it, air travel will become the preserve of the "jet set" - business people and the wealthy, there was already a anti-air sentiment before this thanks to Greta and the climate change lobby, I suspect a lot of airlines will go belly up and air travel will be a fraction of what it was. Good news from the environmental perspective, not so good for those of us who have become used to cheap foreign holidays,  gap years , flying to the UK for Glastonbury etc.

yeah, it's a bummer...but probably necessary anyway.

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Was feeling quite optimistic but today thinking that we might be stuck with significant changes to life for quite a while and possibly no big events for sometime - I can see a lot of re-scheduled sporting events, festivals and gigs being cancelled for the late summer/autumn. And Maybe even next year too. 🙁 there is not going to be an easy answer to this and a vaccine may not even work. 
I hope We will all be there next year but not even sure if that’s going to happen - particularly if countries currently nowhere near a peak now  start to unravel later. 
sorry - need to try and get some positive energy going I think! 

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1 minute ago, sedra said:

Was feeling quite optimistic but today thinking that we might be stuck with significant changes to life for quite a while and possibly no big events for sometime - I can see a lot of re-scheduled sporting events, festivals and gigs being cancelled for the late summer/autumn. And Maybe even next year too. 🙁 there is not going to be an easy answer to this and a vaccine may not even work. 
I hope We will all be there next year but not even sure if that’s going to happen - particularly if countries currently nowhere near a peak now  start to unravel later. 
sorry - need to try and get some positive energy going I think! 

yes, thinking same..

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9 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

That's exactly how I see it, air travel will become the preserve of the "jet set" - business people and the wealthy, there was already a anti-air sentiment before this thanks to Greta and the climate change lobby, I suspect a lot of airlines will go belly up and air travel will be a fraction of what it was. Good news from the environmental perspective, not so good for those of us who have become used to cheap foreign holidays,  gap years , flying to the UK for Glastonbury etc.

Michael O’Leary sees it the opposite! Ryanair planning a blitz on cut-price tickets as soon as they can fly again. Reckons there’s massive pent up demand. Sees it as an opportunity to corner more of the market, push his competitors out of business. Who knows! Same rules as public transport and it should work just fine (I felt ok on a flight at the start of this, everyone getting on wore a mask (it was in the Middle East), if it went back to that, I’d fly again). 

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1 hour ago, Toilet Duck said:

Some interesting new analyses...

Little correlation between overall population and death toll:

741A5088-4224-419C-BFEC-0A798F28F9FC.thumb.png.2a2adab94429e234ffa8077bb78fda4e.png

little correlation between population density and death toll:

6489D900-41D6-4555-840F-4D93F75CD01A.thumb.png.80a06231e03868b8ccb49b2b88e087c0.png

much stronger correlation between locking down early and eventual death toll:

CEEDC993-711E-4F02-BA63-0FAC7B174915.thumb.png.4f079dbef678b006535ce8c805c8d664.png

all of the above was in the report from Imperial at the outset...They acknowledged that there were significant policy decisions to be made between balancing public health and economic activity, using capacity of the Health system to decide on trigger points, but early, full lockdown always gave the lowest fatality rate in their model...based on the above, their model was correct.

But, it’s unsustainable, so what do we do? Before lockdown and when I commented on the Imperial report, I suggested glimmers of hope. Pharmaceutical intervention (Resdemivir data is starting to look very promising), better testing and tracing (apps now rolling out to facilitate better tracing, antibody tests getting better but either need to be more accurate or will be when a higher % of the population is infected) and the last glimmer was change in behaviour via mask wearing. Many countries have now re-evaluated their position on masks, a strong paper in the BMJ makes a compelling case for it. More and more data now pointing in this direction...for example, compare Italy and Sth Korea:

F31EF3CA-D3C1-4B45-91C4-2280E5C3F1E7.png.b673ddc0e95ce4e6363d633822942362.png
 

same case trajectory, Korea introduced mandatory mask wearing, striking divergence in cases. But Korea also introduced earlier lockdown (see above for the effect of that!)...so, it’s not a like for like comparison. Austria v Czech republic better as they both introduced social distancing at the same point in their outbreak,  but the Czech Republic also introduced mandatory mask wearing:

7A100169-7646-4042-A749-33365E42FEF0.png.29c96115748e096d9ca51f5d66908d5d.png
 

eventually, so did Austria...look at the case numbers after they brought it in...

Arguments against mask wearing are that they encourage risky behaviour (same argument was made for bike helmets and condoms during the HIV epidemic). There are always individuals who will engage in risky behaviour, but at a population level, these interventions reduce risk.

F1216653-C158-478B-9BF3-A6B708073718.png.01267234b83392eb9f702d4aa5a08427.png
 

most studies put the transmission reduction from the mask wearer at between 6 fold and 36 fold lower. As you can see from the above study, most people wearing masks that aren’t hugely effective still reduces the R0 of the virus to 1...which stops the spread. Couple this with contact tracing using an app and we have a way out. Not perfect, but it won’t be til there’s a vaccine or a treatment that works most of the time. 

The difficulty at the moment is availability of face coverings. There still a few weeks til lockdown ends, it’s not insurmountable to tackle this and get us back to some kind of normality!

Thanks for all that - that's amazing context. Those mask wearing stats are incredible - I hope the government doesnt rush reopening without them, though I suspect they will. 

If that Resdemivir works as has been claimed, that would be an absolute game changer.  Always sceptical of any news that comes from US drug companies as my mind immediately goes to the chance it'll be too expensive for us to have enough of to make a difference. Maybe this is one of the few situations where the special relationship will work to our advantage....

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Yeah. I get the impression that the UK govt doesnt want to introduce mask wearing not because of the science but because they dont have enough masks to go around! Hopefully that will change. Mask wearing on public transport seems a no brainer.

Yeah I'm hoping that too. Does anyone know what level the mandatory mask wearing in other countries goes to? Like are homemade ones helping or is it purely government supplied good ones? 

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2 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

This hindsight think is complete bollocks. Plenty of people had foresight.

Yes, apparently we can’t critique the governments handling of this because of hindsight. Another convenient way to let them completely off the hook. What will it take for people to stay criticising and calling them out!? Plenty of other countries could see what was coming, had the same type of briefings and acted. We didn’t, but that’s ok because no one can see into the future. It’s fine then for the PM to skip 5 COBRA meetings and swan off on holiday. Let them off the hook for everything. 

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37 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Michael O’Leary sees it the opposite! Ryanair planning a blitz on cut-price tickets as soon as they can fly again. Reckons there’s massive pent up demand. Sees it as an opportunity to corner more of the market, push his competitors out of business. Who knows! Same rules as public transport and it should work just fine (I felt ok on a flight at the start of this, everyone getting on wore a mask (it was in the Middle East), if it went back to that, I’d fly again). 

Cut price tickets to start with but once you have a monopoly or limited competition you can charge what you like, add to that the pressure on government to raise extra revenue to pay for all this and I see additional taxes on airlines and the fuel they use, at the moment they get it tax free, easily justifiable to reduce carbon footprint.

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21 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Does anyone know what level the mandatory mask wearing in other countries goes to? Like are homemade ones helping or is it purely government supplied good ones? 

The final graph in my above post basically models the impact of high efficacy masks worn by a lower % of the population and lower efficacy (homemade) masks worn by a greater % of the population...both scenarios have the potential to lower the R0 and reduce the spread. Ideally, you would to a randomised trial looking at the impact of different masks, but we don’t really have time for that, so string public health messages on how to use any kind of face covering safely will help.

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1 minute ago, gizmoman said:

Cut price tickets to start with but once you have a monopoly or limited competition you can charge what you like, add to that the pressure on government to raise extra revenue to pay for all this and I see additional taxes on airlines and the fuel they use, at the moment they get it tax free, easily justifiable to reduce carbon footprint.

You’re probably correct about levies on travel, but at the moment, oil prices are rock bottom, so would probably off-set it. Ryanair (and most major airlines) hedge their fuel costs, I expect O’Leary has factored all this in, he’s a fairly shrewd operator (I don’t like him by the way, or the way he does business, but I can’t argue with his success)...

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Really interesting interview re the Swedish situation,

Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO, lays out with typically Swedish bluntness why he thinks: - UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based - The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only - This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product” - The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better - The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact - The paper was very much too pessimistic - Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway - The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown - The results will eventually be similar for all countries - Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people. - The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1% - At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

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24 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

The final graph in my above post basically models the impact of high efficacy masks worn by a lower % of the population and lower efficacy (homemade) masks worn by a greater % of the population...both scenarios have the potential to lower the R0 and reduce the spread. Ideally, you would to a randomised trial looking at the impact of different masks, but we don’t really have time for that, so string public health messages on how to use any kind of face covering safely will help.

What do you think the R0 is in the UK right now, with lockdown on?

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2 hours ago, Madyaker said:

All this commuting is dumb anyway. Some guys I know spend 3 hours a day in their cars ffs. It’s not good for the head. 

Yep that's me, can be more if there is an accident.... stupid thing is I could easily do my job from home, but my employer are quite old school in that you must be sitting physically next to your team to be effective! 

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1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

What do you think the R0 is in the UK right now, with lockdown on?

Can only extrapolate from where we are in Ireland, which is 0.7...can’t be far off that in the UK as new cases and fatalities are pretty flat, so when you hit a plateau, it’s close to 1. 

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