When will this shit end?

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, Avalon_Fields said:

It’s hoped to be tested by some volunteers in about a week. It’s only one of many possibles, they just need to have one scheme that’s will work.

Maybe they're going for a expanded phase 2 trial? What numbers are normally involved @Toilet Duck? 

[zahidf]

Whole bunch of idiots about to get themselves killed.

[Smeble]

3 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Whole bunch of idiots about to get themselves killed.

Get others killed more like, being supported by Trump on Twitter, well the ones in democrat states anyway🙄🙄

[zahidf]

59 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Only phase 1 completed by then unfortunately. What’s not being reported is that the folks running the trials have said they won’t even get a signal on efficacy til May next year at the earliest, so it’s on the same timeframe as all the other vaccine trials that have started. They’ll be vaccinating people in the autumn, but it will be as part of the phase 2 trial. Won’t be mass vaccination of the population. 

Is there a percentage of population which has to be vaccinated before lockdown ends? Not 100% o assume

[Toilet Duck]

31 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Maybe they're going for a expanded phase 2 trial? What numbers are normally involved @Toilet Duck? 

Normally in the 10s for a phase 1, 100s for a phase 2. The trial they are running will recruit 510 people and is a phase 1/phase 2 combined (not unusual, but more usual for something that has already been in patients). Trial ends in 6 months, then they see whether it looks like it works. My guess is if there are no immediate safety issues, it will be given to frontline workers who are exposed professionally to the virus (in the 1000s, which is also what they are doing with prophylactic drug trials at the moment). After that, the million doses will be useful. It’s all still very quick from a safety perspective though.

[Madyaker]

3 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Normally in the 10s for a phase 1, 100s for a phase 2. The trial they are running will recruit 510 people and is a phase 1/phase 2 combined (not unusual, but more usual for something that has already been in patients). Trial ends in 6 months, then they see whether it looks like it works. My guess is if there are no immediate safety issues, it will be given to frontline workers who are exposed professionally to the virus (in the 1000s, which is also what they are doing with prophylactic drug trials at the moment). After that, the million doses will be useful. It’s all still very quick from a safety perspective though.

Would be curious to hear your take on the potential efficacy of the BCG vaccine. A few doctors and scientists in Ireland have been saying we should use this as a stop gap until a covid 19 vaccine is developed. https://www.bbc.com/news/52310194

Other Irish news. Cheif medical Officer reckons the curve has been flattened and we won't see a surge. Case numbers hopefully starting to drop. 13,980 cases and 530 deaths as of yesterday with half of all deaths occuring in nursing homes. The governemtn announced today that all workers and residents in care homes will be tested regularly from now on regardless of whether they have symptoms or not. Can't find up to date figures for our testing but I've no doubt its still way off where it needs to be as in pretty much every country. Breakdown of irish figures can be read here if anyone is interested https://www.gov.ie/en/news/7e0924-latest-updates-on-covid-19-coronavirus/

Edited April 18, 2020 by Madyaker

[Toilet Duck]

21 minutes ago, Madyaker said:

Would be curious to hear your take on the potential efficacy of the BCG vaccine. A few doctors and scientists in Ireland have been saying we should use this as a stop gap until a covid 19 vaccine is developed. https://www.bbc.com/news/52310194

Other Irish news. Cheif medical Officer reckons the curve has been flattened and we won't see a surge. Case numbers hopefully starting to drop. 13,980 cases and 530 deaths as of yesterday with half of all deaths occuring in nursing homes. The governemtn announced today that all workers and residents in care homes will be tested regularly from now on regardless of whether they have symptoms or not. Can't find up to date figures for our testing but I've no doubt its still way off where it needs to be as in pretty much every country. Breakdown of irish figures can be read here if anyone is interested https://www.gov.ie/en/news/7e0924-latest-updates-on-covid-19-coronavirus/

BCG would still be my guess as the first coronavirus vaccine. Sound biological reasons why it would help (won’t make you immune, but puts the innate immune system into overdrive and should lower the risk of severe infection). It’s in short supply though, so we need a lot more. It’s being trialled in frontline workers, and since we don’t need to go through the same trial phases as a new vaccine, could be rolled out as soon as there’s enough of it. 
 

Numbers in Ireland are encouraging. R0 is at about 0.7 now, which is what is needed to open things up again. There’s still some logistical issues to iron out before that though to help prevent a big rebound surge and to keep a lid on things. Reagents for tests have finally been secured in large quantities and there’s capacity for large scale testing for about 6 months or so now. Face masks and tracing app the next things to put in place, then lockdown can be loosened quite a bit. 

[Toilet Duck]

43 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Is there a percentage of population which has to be vaccinated before lockdown ends? Not 100% o assume

No, R0 of the virus needs to be under 1, then properly implemented containment measures would allow loosening of restrictions. We’ll be living with this for a while, but have already learnt a lot from wave 1 to help deal with the next one! 

[Lycra]

5 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

No, R0 of the virus needs to be under 1, then properly implemented containment measures would allow loosening of restrictions. We’ll be living with this for a while, but have already learnt a lot from wave 1 to help deal with the next one! 

Agreed. Whilst restrictions will be loosened, hopefully progressively, it's  going to take a good while to return to the freedoms we all took for granted. Some noted experts in epidemiology are cautioning that mass gatherings should not be permitted until a proven vaccine is widely available. 

[dizzymoo]

12 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

BCG would still be my guess as the first coronavirus vaccine. Sound biological reasons why it would help (won’t make you immune, but puts the innate immune system into overdrive and should lower the risk of severe infection). It’s in short supply though, so we need a lot more. It’s being trialled in frontline workers, and since we don’t need to go through the same trial phases as a new vaccine, could be rolled out as soon as there’s enough of it. 
 

Numbers in Ireland are encouraging. R0 is at about 0.7 now, which is what is needed to open things up again. There’s still some logistical issues to iron out before that though to help prevent a big rebound surge and to keep a lid on things. Reagents for tests have finally been secured in large quantities and there’s capacity for large scale testing for about 6 months or so now. Face masks and tracing app the next things to put in place, then lockdown can be loosened quite a bit. 

Forgive my ignorance on this Toilet Duck,  but could putting the body's immune system into overdrive cause problems too? I understand that some patients' breathing problems are caused by blood clots in the lungs which are the result of cytokine storms?

[Toilet Duck]

24 minutes ago, dizzymoo said:

Forgive my ignorance on this Toilet Duck,  but could putting the body's immune system into overdrive cause problems too? I understand that some patients' breathing problems are caused by blood clots in the lungs which are the result of cytokine storms?

In theory, yes, and we’ve seen this as a cause of death with other respiratory viruses. However, the vaccine has been used widely for many years and those who are vaccinated don’t seem to be dying in large amounts from cytokines storms when they get an infection. So, I guess we need to determine how much of a risk this is with this particular virus. The arm of the immune system that is boosted is the non-specific part that helps fight off the early stages of infection. Cytokine storm-related fatalities tend to occur later in the course of the infection, so my guess is this is less of a risk, but prudent to check for this in the ongoing trials. An immunologist might be able to explain better than me! 
 

edit: just checked with a colleague who is an immunologist (scientists love answering questions, even at the weekend!)...she says current understanding is that the sub-populations of immune cells that are boosted by BCG protect against cytokine storm, and accumulate in the lungs. Levels of these cells decline with age and there are gender differences in levels of them too, which adds to the reason why older men are at increased risk (doesn’t explain it all, but probably contributes). Anyway, it’s all rapidly evolving, I don’t doubt we’ll learn loads more over the next whole, but as I’ve said before, I’d rule it out definitively before abandoning it as a strategy before even testing it.

Edited April 18, 2020 by Toilet Duck

[Matt42]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Whole bunch of idiots about to get themselves killed.

The hard part of life is that you can’t get through to people like this. They want to die for their country so bad.

[zahidf]

1 hour ago, Matt42 said:

The hard part of life is that you can’t get through to people like this. They want to die for their country so bad.

Not entirely there fault

 

 

[Bisque]

17 hours ago, O'Doyle Rules said:

Man I was dumped by the Mrs today by text - solo lockdown just became a much more lonely place.

Sorry to hear this.

I posted on here a lot when I moved back home from Leeds after splitting with my ex. People were really nice & supportive at a time where I decided that drinking to forget was the best idea. I even started a thread I due to the darkness. I know it’s difficult but look after yourself & try not to w**k over old naughty pictures of her too much.

[Andy0808 v5]

4 hours ago, zahidf said:

Whole bunch of idiots about to get themselves killed.

And I thought Corona was Darwinism rearing it’s head in 2020. Damn you American Conservatives, you’ve somehow surprised me.

[stuartbert two hats]

12 minutes ago, Andy0808 v5 said:

And I thought Corona was Darwinism rearing it’s head in 2020. Damn you American Conservatives, you’ve somehow surprised me.

They're not exactly disproving that theory!

[steviewevie]

There are so many nutty nutters running this world I really wouldn't be that surpirsed if we ended up with a massive fuckin war.

[Andy0808 v5]

A genuine quote from one of the articles around the protests in Michigan.
 

‘Kelly Mullin brought her sons to teach them a lesson about liberty. Mullin said she believes the risk posed by coronavirus depends on your health and that people can take basic steps to protect themselves, including getting enough sleep, eating organic produce and getting outside.

“I mean, that’s where our tax dollars should be going. Eat broccoli,” she said.’

 

🧐

[Lizzim]

Do you think the likes of California can shut their borders and cede from the other states ?Or have I just being reading too much dystopian fiction?   My Mum compared Trump to Mussolini today and guess who came out better.  

 

[steviewevie]

The Conversation on BBC2 at 11 tonight.

That is all.

 

[Ozanne]

17 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

The Conversation on BBC2 at 11 tonight.

That is all.

 

What's happening?

[steviewevie]

Nothing. Just a film I really like.

[WhoamI?]

22 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I think it's more that this is costing so much money that they are willing to produce a vaccine in bulk so if it did pass testing, we could deploy it immediately rather than waiting months for enough to be produced. And if it fails testing then it can be thrown away.

Okay,  thank you, I really thought panic might have really gone crazy there.

[fatyeti24]

2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

The Conversation on BBC2 at 11 tonight.

That is all.

 

That's not how you do conversation.

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, WhoamI? said:

Okay,  thank you, I really thought panic might have really gone crazy there.

As has been observed earlier in this thread everything most of is say on this thread (other than @Toilet Duck) is pure speculation. I have nothing but bytenuously founded opinions. 

Almost by definition, I think I'm right, but let's just say my confidence level in my own opinions isn't high. This shit is crazy complex and unpredictable and I'm no expert.

My assumption is that it's similar to the Bill Gates situation where he's investing in multiple vaccine factories simultaneously in the knowledge that most of the output of his investments will be discarded - but that's just my assumption.