When will this shit end?

[stuartbert two hats]

8 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

you don't have to be narrow minded to see that immigration has benefits and downsides. 

...but it helps.

[MEGABOWL]

9 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Didn’t they say it would take 2 weeks to see any benefit of lockdown though? It’s been 3 and compliance has been higher, in my simple brain I’d have thought we’d be seeing some benefit by now, given they indicated that 2 weeks. 

That depends what the figures would (hypothetically) have looked like without that Compliance and without any Government intervention at all.

[gizmoman]

11 minutes ago, Homer said:

I thought that the fact that a lot of 'seasonal' Eastern European workers are younger meant that immigrants actually use the NHS less on average?

Of course, that is the reason successive governments have continued to allow quite high levels of immigration, the immigrants who work are younger and healthier than the aging native population, BUT if they stay here they eventually have kids, get older and so create that extra demand, there is a lag though so short term it is a benefit. If they work here a few years and then return to their country of origin there would be little extra demand, if on the other hand they settle here and bring in an extended family they would increase demand. Is immigration a benefit overall? If you're on the right you would probably say no, most on here would say yes i guess, I'm not so sure so i'm on the fence.

Edited April 13, 2020 by gizmoman
spelling

[stuartbert two hats]

8 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Didn’t they say it would take 2 weeks to see any benefit of lockdown though? It’s been 3 and compliance has been higher, in my simple brain I’d have thought we’d be seeing some benefit by now, given they indicated that 2 weeks. 

I think we are aren't we? The rate of acceleration has slowed significantly. Remember, this is an exponential problem and early detection of intervention needs to be viewed in those terms.

While the linear cumulative scaled graph looks like nothing is happening, you can see a slight, but definite flattening in the logarithmic cumulative graph. And the daily death rate, despite having a fair degree of noise in it really does seem to be showing a reduction in increase - although time will certainly tell in that regard.

I believe that the London figures are showing the impact more clearly, but I've not been able to find them - are they on worldometers.info ? Does anyone know?

[Ozanne]

13 minutes ago, MEGABOWL said:

That depends what the figures would (hypothetically) have looked like without that Compliance and without any Government intervention at all.

Good point, I didn’t think of that. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Somebody on here likened the virus to a sniper, using that analogy there is is this really strange view of the virus that somehow like a sniper you can catch them and stop them, and therefore the longer you wait the worse it is.

People seem to think that we didn’t believe there was a sniper out there and waited too long to try and catch them, and that the earlier you acted to try and catch them the better it will be, and that once they’re caught that’s the end of the story. Ireland caught their sniper sooner so will be better off for it as an example. 

The reality is if the virus is a sniper it can’t be caught and won’t be going anywhere for some time.

The only differentiator with this virus between different countries is will their healthcare service be overwhelmed or not. Leaving lockdown to a point where your health care service is overwhelmed is a mistake, but if it’s not overwhelmed at any point, when you went into lockdown is really incidental.

When we leave lockdown the virus will still be about, cases will still occur. The virus has a mortality rate, you can’t escape that. Cases = deaths, regardless of the numbers, deaths will happen in high or low numbers. It’s rather shocking to see nearly a 1000 deaths a day, but people will die from this every single day until it either dies out because 60% of us have had it, or we have a vaccine to get us to 60% or more. The only thing that will help to mitigate this are any treatments that help with the severity of the virus for those who get it, but there will still be deaths.

Going into lockdown later means you have more cases and more of the population immune, when you then try and come out of lockdown you can subsequently manage the spread better than a country who went into lockdown sooner and had less cases. So in the absence of a vaccine on the next couple of months, the debate of Ireland vs the U.K. is largely a question of swings and roundabouts. 

[steviewevie]

Until a vaccine is found, mass testing and contact tracing is how you catch the virus. Bit late for us here.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Until a vaccine is found, mass testing and contact tracing is how you catch the virus. Bit late for us here.

Well it’s how you keep it under control, but it’s still occurring, people will still die just in smaller numbers over a longer period. It’s a sad fact but one that many don’t seem to want to contemplate. 

[efcfanwirral]

12 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Until a vaccine is found, mass testing and contact tracing is how you catch the virus. Bit late for us here.

That app they talked about yesterday sounded promising. But the only way it can be effective is if it's mandatory. Many will cry privacy concerns so its probably a non starter. The only way would be to work with the OS companies to make it so that you can't use your phone without it installed, as it won't be enforced any other way. 

Masks would be good too - I wonder if they're having them made or if they have backed themselves into a corner and the only place we can get them is China?

[zahidf]

7 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

That app they talked about yesterday sounded promising. But the only way it can be effective is if it's mandatory. Many will cry privacy concerns so its probably a non starter. The only way would be to work with the OS companies to make it so that you can't use your phone without it installed, as it won't be enforced any other way. 

Masks would be good too - I wonder if they're having them made or if they have backed themselves into a corner and the only place we can get them is China?

The app will work with just 60% compliance apparently.

[Avalon_Fields]

4 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

That app they talked about yesterday sounded promising. But the only way it can be effective is if it's mandatory. Many will cry privacy concerns so its probably a non starter. The only way would be to work with the OS companies to make it so that you can't use your phone without it installed, as it won't be enforced any other way. 

Masks would be good too - I wonder if they're having them made or if they have backed themselves into a corner and the only place we can get them is China?

It could work really well with 100% on the system, but I read it was expected to do an effective part in the fight against the virus even on a voluntary basis. I wouldn't hesitate to sign up for it.

It won't be enforced though, plenty would fight back against it.

Certainly the global supply chains for all sorts of essential items will need to be looked at. Self sufficiency can't be a bad outcome, just look how much we are dependent on food imports for starters.

[dizzymoo]

11 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Well it’s how you keep it under control, but it’s still occurring, people will still die just in smaller numbers over a longer period. It’s a sad fact but one that many don’t seem to want to contemplate. 

People will still die, but death rates should fall because a health service which isn't overwhelmed will have more chance of saving the lives of those who get infected. Also people are more likely to get to hospital in time for treatment to be successful. It's not just a strategy for spreading the same number of deaths over a longer period. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

1 minute ago, dizzymoo said:

People will still die, but death rates should fall because a health service which isn't overwhelmed will have more chance of saving the lives of those who get infected. Also people are more likely to get to hospital in time for treatment to be successful. It's not just a strategy for spreading the same number of deaths over a longer period. 

But is our health service overwhelmed? No doubt it’s under a huge amount of stress at the moment, but has it been confirmed officially that capacity has been breached and unnecessary deaths are occurring?  

[zahidf]

10 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

But is our health service overwhelmed? No doubt it’s under a huge amount of stress at the moment, but has it been confirmed officially that capacity has been breached and unnecessary deaths are occurring?  

The opposite. Govt says there is capacity and (overall as to individual areas) the NHS is coping.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

1 hour ago, Madyaker said:

Is the cure worse than the disease though? Hard to make that argument when people are still dying in numbers. Also with almost every country taking a similar hit to gdp is it really as bad as it sounds?

In a globalised economy the fact that everyone else is suffering just makes it worse. If we’d just been hit and the rest of the Europe was fine at least we’d have a number of healthy economies still wanting to buy our exports. As it is the pound had been hammered anyway making our imports more expensive, but we won’t see the benefit in exports because all the other economies will be screwed as well. Everyone else being as bad as you doesn’t make your own personal situation any better.

[dizzymoo]

6 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

But is our health service overwhelmed? No doubt it’s under a huge amount of stress at the moment, but has it been confirmed officially that capacity has been breached and unnecessary deaths are occurring?  

...I don't know if it's overwhelmed,  that's not what I was saying. Though the medics working with inadequate protection would no doubt see their colleagues' deaths as unnecessary. 

[Crazyfool01]

Maybe the unfortunate loss of life in care homes has left the nhs with some capacity ... ? I don’t know at what point some of these people would have been transferred to hospitals 

[Bisque]

I just cut my nails for the first time in over 3 weeks. Makes texting so much easier.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

5 minutes ago, dizzymoo said:

...I don't know if it's overwhelmed,  that's not what I was saying. Though the medics working with inadequate protection would no doubt see their colleagues' deaths as unnecessary. 

Perhaps in the fullness of time it will be judged that the capacity of the NHS should have been judged against the availability of PPE, rather than hospital beds staff and ventilators. But while the NHS has capacity under these metrics then the sad fact of a virus is that deaths will occur, it’s just a question of when they occur.

Edited April 13, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[stuartbert two hats]

[Crazyfool01]

7 minutes ago, Bisque said:

I just cut my nails for the first time in over 3 weeks. Makes texting so much easier.

I reckon once I cut my hair my I will shave at least 5 mins off my pb for my walk ... 

[gizmoman]

11 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Here's a question, should Boris have not used the NHS and gone private?, he can afford it and he was taking up a bed that might well have been needed by someone else. If the NHS was at full capacity and he went private would that have been acceptable?

[Crazyfool01]

Lower numbers today ... but I suspect it’s the usual weekend impact ... it will probably mean a significant jump tomoro 

[stuartbert two hats]

5 minutes ago, gizmoman said:

Here's a question, should Boris have not used the NHS and gone private?, he can afford it and he was taking up a bed that might well have been needed by someone else. If the NHS was at full capacity and he went private would that have been acceptable?

A tricky one. I don't know the answer. It's probably a very complicated set of interactions.

[Ommadawn]

2 hours ago, Rumblestripe said:

I think that Labour would have handled the situation far better givent that they would have been led by someone who isn't a sociopath.

But that is just as much bolloxx as your posting. Straight from the Conservative Party play book of confuse, divert and obfuscate, I hope they are paying you. Stuff like that will just let them off the hook for their failures. Failures that continue to cost the lives of our friends and families. I guess you voted Blue and wish to salve your blackened soul?

It doesn't matter what Labour, Liberal or Green MIGHT have done, it matters what Johnson et al have done and they must answer for their actions.

How would they handled the situation better? Would they have ignored the science and gone their own way. Just curious really. Corbyn doesn't really have a good track record in being decisive does he?

And no, I didn't vote blue.