When will this shit end?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

59 minutes ago, Neil said:

UK breaks the European daily death record and BBC only say it's "among highest in Europe". 

The UK govt have fucked this up, big time. We could have had one of the lowest death rates in Europe - and be out of lockdown sooner - but Spaffer and co were too interested in making bullshit statements instead.

6th Feb: first UK case.
16th March: govt suddenly thinks about extra ventilators and PPE.

First claim of being able to to test 25,000 a day: mid March.
First attempt at scaling up testing? end of March.

etc, etc, etc.

Is that ignoring the elephant in the room though, any deaths that have happened and will happen over the coming weeks, how do you avoid these happening eventually?

If we look at Germany and their mortality rate of about 0.4% and apply it to our death count than that means at most 2.25m people have had it. If we need to get to 60% infected before it can die out naturally then we need to get to around 35m people infected which would be about 150,000 deaths.

Is the suggestion that we remain in our current state indefinitely until a vaccine is ready? Realistically how viable is that? Or we exit the current strategy and adopt an aggressive contact tracing strategy, people will still be getting the virus and dying, just in smaller numbers over an extended period. it’s pretty shocking when you see 900+ people dying every day, so is it simply more palatable to the general public that 10% of that number die every day, but do so every day from now until next spring? 

Edited April 11, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[priest17]

14 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

good news potentially ..... anyone fed up with using potentially in every sentence ?  

Well yeah, potentially.

[reflekting]

4 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

It’s pretty shocking when you see 900+ people dying every day, so is it simply more palatable to the general public that 10% of that number die every day, but do so every day from now until next spring? 

I don't think we can stop it, but delaying means we haven't more time for preparedness so things like greater number of ventilators and results from the clinical trials are returned. The clinical trials will allow us to assess the value of any current available medication and work out how to administer. If there is success in that space it means people can contract the disease with a lower mortality rate and will enable things to slowly return to normal. 

[Splatt]

Something playing on my mind for G2021 is could they get insurance to run the festival?  I’d of thought Coronavirus disruption would be excluded, could you afford to run an event without this given it’s still likely to be circulating. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

2 minutes ago, Splatt said:

Something playing on my mind for G2021 is could they get insurance to run the festival?  I’d of thought Coronavirus disruption would be excluded, could you afford to run an event without this given it’s still likely to be circulating. 

I guess that would just depend where we are this time next year. The bulk of their costs come after the point they cancelled this year, so they wouldn’t need to worry too much about it until that point and then make another call on it then. Although nothing is guaranteed, one way or another by this time next year a lot more of the population would’ve had it - possible enough that it’s no longer an issue.

[Havors]

38 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I’m not exactly how useful it is to be looking at just absolute death figures and then comparing to other countries. So many other variables at play not least size of population.

 

I'm baffled by Germanys stats... relatively low amount of deaths to everyone else? I have a feeling they may be recording only deaths that are a direct result of Covid-19 and not just deaths with it in the system?? Or do they have some magical medicine/doctors that are stopping people dying? 

[stuartbert two hats]

10 minutes ago, reflekting said:

I don't think we can stop it, but delaying means we haven't more time for preparedness so things like greater number of ventilators and results from the clinical trials are returned. The clinical trials will allow us to assess the value of any current available medication and work out how to administer. If there is success in that space it means people can contract the disease with a lower mortality rate and will enable things to slowly return to normal. 

And if we can get the active cases down far enough then the nurses and doctors have a little bit of opportunity to get a breather. We're clearly some way from ending lockdown any way you look at it.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

2 minutes ago, Havors said:

I'm baffled by Germanys stats... relatively low amount of deaths to everyone else? I have a feeling they may be recording only deaths that are a direct result of Covid-19 and not just deaths with it in the system?? Or do they have some magical medicine/doctors that are stopping people dying? 

People put it down to the sheer amount of tests they’ve done.

This is also interesting and very positive though:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/1267405/coronavirus-herd-immunity-europe-death-toll-covid-19-germany-angela-merkel/amp

[FestivalJamie]

10 minutes ago, Havors said:

I'm baffled by Germanys stats... relatively low amount of deaths to everyone else? I have a feeling they may be recording only deaths that are a direct result of Covid-19 and not just deaths with it in the system?? Or do they have some magical medicine/doctors that are stopping people dying? 

Out of all the figures you see on any tables or any charts, Germany's are the most accurate. They have a robust healthcare system with the highest amount of ICU beds per capita in any country in Europe. They took early measures to prevent the spread of the virus and flatten the curve and have been performing 500,000 tests a week, whereas the UK didn't even start to scale up tests until the end of march. They have been successful at tracing back infection chains and getting people's tests back sooner so they can be admitted into hospital earlier to give them a higher chance of survival. Many people in the UK are being admitted into hospital way too late and dying on the way to hospital, or just a couple of hours after being admitted into the ICU units.

Germany has 122, 215 confirmed cases, this is a more accurate representation(as there is widespread testing within communities). The UK'S 73,758 confirmed cases is very inaccurate as it only records people in hospital with this virus, our actual cases will be 360,000+. 

The only two countries which have been sensible in this outbreak are Germany and South Korea. Those are the only figures I would even read to be remotely accurate.

EDIT: Also worth noting Angela Merkel told all over 65's to have the pneumococcal vaccine which protects against pneumonia, which can be caused by the disease Covid 19. This will significantly reduce deaths as many people who are dying from the disease are dying from the pneumonia that is caused by it. 

Edited April 11, 2020 by FestivalJamie

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/1267405/coronavirus-herd-immunity-europe-death-toll-covid-19-germany-angela-merkel/amp
 

With regards to this, 15% is still not necessarily great, but if we make the (horrible) assumption that the amount of deaths in the U.K. slows in the same way they went up and we hit something like 20k deaths in this initial lockdown. Apply the death rate on this study of 0.37% and that means about 5.5m people having had the virus. Although it’s nowhere near 60% of the population it’s still a decent chunk. What it will mean is when we exit this lockdown via whatever method we end up with, the virus will spread that little bit more slowly though and we will be able to control the spread better then first time around. 

Edited April 11, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[zahidf]

1 hour ago, jparx said:

Some potentially positive news

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-as-early-as-september-according-to-scientist-11971804

Seems to go against all the other stuff on vaccines so far, so a bit reluctant to believe it on face value. Fingers crossed though 

[Havors]

 

2 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Out of all the figures you see on any tables or any charts, Germany's are the most accurate. They have a robust healthcare system with the highest amount of ICU beds per capita in any country in Europe. They took early measures to prevent the spread of the virus and flatten the curve and have been performing 500,000 tests a week, whereas the UK didn't even start to scale up tests until the end of march. They have been successful at tracing back infection chains and getting people's tests back sooner so they can be admitted into hospital earlier to give them a higher chance of survival. Many people in the UK are being admitted into hospital way too late and dying on the way to hospital, or just a couple of hours after being admitted into the ICU units.

Germany has 122, 215 confirmed cases, this is a more accurate representation(as there is widespread testing within communities). The UK'S 73,758 confirmed cases is very inaccurate as it only records people in hospital with this virus, our actual cases will be 360,000+. 

I hope you don't mind me taking your post with a pinch of salt unless you can back it up with some evidence of many people dying on the way to hospital etc and the 360k+ number. 

I am confident Germany's figures are the most accurate as you say, they acted quickly and tested quickly. I also think (just my hunch im no expert) they are recording deaths more accurately... i.e if someone has heart disease and dies as a result it is being recorded as heart failure and not covid because it was in their system. 

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Seems to go against all the other stuff on vaccines so far, so a bit reluctant to believe it on face value. Fingers crossed though 

I think the massive need and vested interests will expedite it. It is going to all be down to how quick they pass human trials and can be mass produced and distributed. 

[FestivalJamie]

1 minute ago, Havors said:

 

I hope you don't mind me taking your post with a pinch of salt unless you can back it up with some evidence of many people dying on the way to hospital etc and the 360k+ number. 

I am confident Germany's figures are the most accurate as you say, they acted quickly and tested quickly. I also think (just my hunch im no expert) they are recording deaths more accurately... i.e if someone has heart disease and dies as a result it is being recorded as heart failure and not covid because it was in their system. 

My 360,000 case number comes from assuming the death rate is the same worldwide. We have approximately 3x the amount of deaths from Germany so therefore I am assuming 3x the amount of cases. 

Our testing has been so minimal and in a small circle I know at least 6 people who have had the virus(or at least seem to have had it), and none of them contribute to official figures as they weren’t tested. I also live in the same household as one of those people so it’s perfectly possible I have been an asymptomatic carrier as well.

The bit about people dying on their way to hospital is just from reading lots of news articles, however as we know these may not always be accurate. The official death toll yesterday of 980 was reported to not include home deaths and people who died in the ambulance on the way to hospital. And from reports of earlier deaths in February/ early March in my county, the people dying were dying only a couple of hours after being admitted into the local hospital. I assume this was because at the time testing was extremely slow and limited and therefore testing results were taking about a week to come back, and therefore people’s symptoms were worsening before they could officially get a result back and admitted to hospital

 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

6 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

My 360,000 case number comes from assuming the death rate is the same worldwide. We have approximately 3x the amount of deaths from Germany so therefore I am assuming 3x the amount of cases. 

Our testing has been so minimal and in a small circle I know at least 6 people who have had the virus(or at least seem to have had it), and none of them contribute to official figures as they weren’t tested. I also live in the same household as one of those people so it’s perfectly possible I have been an asymptomatic carrier as well.

The bit about people dying on their way to hospital is just from reading lots of news articles, however as we know these may not always be accurate. The official death toll yesterday of 980 was reported to not include home deaths and people who died in the ambulance on the way to hospital. And from reports of earlier deaths in February/ early March in my county, the people dying were dying only a couple of hours after being admitted into the local hospital. I assume this was because at the time testing was extremely slow and limited and therefore testing results were taking about a week to come back, and therefore people’s symptoms were worsening before they could officially get a result back and admitted to hospital

 

I don’t think admittance to hospital is based on tests results though is it? If you’re dying or think that you’re particularly unwell (Covid or no Covid) I think you can still call an ambulance or be admitted. Hopefully too many people aren’t waiting so long that they’re almost dying before they decide to act. No doubt there is a bit of overlap, but in the absence of a cure or a treatment then short of being denied a ventilator I’m not sure how much difference it would ultimately make anyway.

Edited April 11, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[FestivalJamie]

Just now, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I don’t think admittance to hospital is based on tests results though is it? If you’re dying I think or thing you’re particularly unwell (Covid or no Covid) I think you can still call an ambulance or be admitted. Hopefully too many people aren’t waiting so long that they’re almost dying before they decide to act. No doubt there is a bit of overlap, but in the absence of a cure or a treatment then short of being denied a ventilator I’m not sure how much difference it would ultimately make anyway.

My aunt works in the NHS and she says there have been lots of people too scared to ring an ambulance. On the NHS website, you are told to ring 111 if you need urgent medical help, however in reality it takes hours and hours for anyone to get back to you. People have been holding back from phoning 999 or are phoning 999 too late. 

The General public are only being tested for the virus once admitted into hospital, so that's where our "confirmed cases" comes from. Tests are also being rolled out for NHS workers self isolating with symptoms at home, however apart from that it is impossible to get tested in this  country. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

17 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

My aunt works in the NHS and she says there have been lots of people too scared to ring an ambulance. On the NHS website, you are told to ring 111 if you need urgent medical help, however in reality it takes hours and hours for anyone to get back to you. People have been holding back from phoning 999 or are phoning 999 too late. 

The General public are only being tested for the virus once admitted into hospital, so that's where our "confirmed cases" comes from. Tests are also being rolled out for NHS workers self isolating with symptoms at home, however apart from that it is impossible to get tested in this  country. 

Of course, I think the situation with our lack of testing is well known and that you’ll only really get tested if you’re turning up at hospital particularly unwell, my point was simply that we can all still go to hospital or call an ambulance if we need to. I think it was important for the government to try and prevent people turning up unnecessarily, it’s clear you can’t have everyone who thinks they have Covid rocking up to hospital, it’s also important that people make sure that they do if they genuinely think they need to. It’s a difficult thing to balance, at the outset of this I posted an article about how some people were faking Covid symptoms to get doctors appointments about minor non related stuff, unfortunately you will always get people that will waste the NHS’s time which of course we need to try and reduce as much as possible. Of course there will always be that part of the population that ‘don’t want to be a burden’ either, and typically the are the older more at risk. As an example a number of years ago my dad had a quadruple heart bypass, after a week or so of being discharged he got really ill but wouldn’t call an ambulance or let my mum call an ambulance. Luckily we did and it turned out he had MRSA, he was in hospital for another 3 weeks with it. They are just the type of people that might leave it too late to call an ambulance. It’s a really difficult thing to do much about that, especially when at the moment the older and more at risk are likely to isolated from family members who would likely call an ambulance for them much sooner.

Edited April 11, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[Ommadawn]

I see the BBC have kindly decided to donate fully working ventilators from the Holby City set to the Nightingale Hospital. What took them so long and why they hell are using working medical equipment on a film set?

[dentalplan]

Just now, Ommadawn said:

I see the BBC have kindly decided to donate fully working ventilators from the Holby City set to the Nightingale Hospital. What took them so long and why they hell are using working medical equipment on a film set?

Yeah wtf this is bizarre. Didn’t even know Holby City was still going, never mind hoarding ventilators.

[jparx]

Haha yea that Holby City thing blew my mind. What a fucking waste of equipment at the best of times. 

[dentalplan]

Coronavirus: Under-30s may be first group to leave lockdown

Ain‘t gonna happen but imagine the uproar.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

24 minutes ago, dentalplan said:

Coronavirus: Under-30s may be first group to leave lockdown

Ain‘t gonna happen but imagine the uproar.

The most pertinent thing for me from that article is this simple point:

He explained: “Unless a vaccine is suddenly discovered there are no risk-free or painless ways forward
 

I think that’s the point that people need to understand and get to grips with 

[zahidf]

Poland is making mask wearing mandatory and installing vending machines to distribute them.

https://notesfrompoland.com/2020/04/10/vending-machines-selling-masks-appear-across-poland-as-face-covering-made-compulsory/

[dotdash79]

1 hour ago, Ommadawn said:

I see the BBC have kindly decided to donate fully working ventilators from the Holby City set to the Nightingale Hospital. What took them so long and why they hell are using working medical equipment on a film set?

It’s to keep the viewers alive 

[fred quimby]

Matt Hancock. You a fucking cock.  Stupid  statement. All that while your government has not responded to those companies who could help.