When will this shit end?

[Toilet Duck]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

Yes, thanks Toilet Duck.

How do you see this ending? Various levels of social distancing restrictions until a vaccine is being used globally?

Honestly, it would be a guess. Without a vaccine, I'd expect outbreaks to continue once case numbers are brought under control. How we (and by we, I mean the entire planet) deal with those is really the key. I would expect some sense of normality to return in the summer, but there will be long lasting impacts on how we behave. More and more countries are looking at mask wearing in public to limit the spread, more and more public information and education is required to help limit the spread between peaks (our workplaces may be transformed to have hand sanitiser dispensers, disposal facilities for masks, and even small companies might end up having to send people for biohazard training), better drugs could change things, better contact tracing and case isolation, a serology test that is accurate and gives a clear picture of who has been infected, any number of things will shift the outcome. What I think at the moment is that locally, we may see things to return to close to normal. When we might be able to freely travel again is questionable. Quarantine for 2 weeks on arrival is really not practical unless you are trying to get home (which is what is happening at the moment), so I honestly have no idea how this can be managed.  

[steviewevie]

https://twitter.com/uespiiiiii/status/1247449432301264898

 

[Toilet Duck]

12 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Am I imaging this or am I right in saying you didn’t have a ticket for 2020? It not then you definitely need some help in the resale?

Nope, I have a ticket! But thanks for the offer, much appreciated. Have one group of friends left to sort out (snafu with the postcodes scuppered that order, 5 of us got through for them, but an incorrect postcode continued to lock-out the order...should have just dropped the wrong one, but you know how frantic it is on T'Day!). 

[zahidf]

 

 

[Spindles]

Sorry to in any way harass with questions, but does it seem likely that local lockdowns could be a medium term solution.  Regionalise nations and enforce localised lockdowns where cases occur with strict (but not entire) travel controls between regions in place or does the lag between infection and detection mean that this isn't something we can react to fast enough for effective controls that aren't widespread? 

[zahidf]

Ah Bollocks

 

 

[Spindles]

They'd primed us for this news over the last few days, it's been something that's been very much talked up to raise awareness.

It would be nice if the PHE tracker was updated to show both announced and revised figures and get a better picture.  They've updated it a couple of times so it looks like they're evolving it as they go.

Link, if anyone hasn't been using this resource:

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

[jparx]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

UFC are doing their big event on a private island apparently next week

Dana has lost his mind. Don't think anyone is coming out of this looking worse than him tbh.

[Doug85]

4 minutes ago, jparx said:

Dana has lost his mind. Don't think anyone is coming out of this looking worse than him tbh.

Mike Ashley and Trump will give him a run for his money

[Spindles]

If anyone has 15 minutes I'd really recommend watching this, covers a lot of ground at a pace but brilliantly composed I think.

 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Ah Bollocks

 

 

I honestly don’t mean to be obtuse or dense, but what is this actually saying? My assumption is people are still dying of other things as well as Covid, and in normal circumstances about 1500 people die on average every day anyway?

[st dan]

Sweden’s ‘no lockdown’ approach going really well it seems ....

[zahidf]

39 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I honestly don’t mean to be obtuse or dense, but what is this actually saying? My assumption is people are still dying of other things as well as Covid, and in normal circumstances about 1500 people die on average every day anyway?

Not sure about numbers of people normally dying tbh. Just that it seems to show we are under playing (not on purpose I hasten to add) the number of deaths

[zahidf]

Interesting

 

 

[steviewevie]

is Boris Johnson the only one with coronavirus? certainly feels like it.

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

is Boris Johnson the only one with coronavirus? certainly feels like it.

? The PM having it and being in ICU is going to dominate the news...

Edited April 7, 2020 by zahidf

[steviewevie]

I think it's a Cummings ruse to distract us from what NHS staff are going through due to lack of tests and PPE.

[steviewevie]

+854 deaths in UK...looks like it was a weekend lull after all.

[steviewevie]

Actually...that 854 is from guardian feed...

854 new coronavirus deaths reported across UK

And there have been three new coronavirus deaths in Northern Ireland, according to the latest update (pdf) from Northern Ireland’s Public Health Agency.

These three deaths, combined with the 758 from England (see 2.18pm), the 74 from Scotland (see 1.50pm) and the 19 from Wales (see 2.08pm), would take the UK total of new deaths to 854.

We will get an official UK figure from the Department of Health and Social Care later. As Nadine White at HuffPost points out, there is normally a slight difference between the official UK total and the figure produced by the combination of the separate figures for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. That is because some of the reporting criteria differ. Yesterday the official DHSC figure for new UK deaths was 439.

[zahidf]

 Dubious about this but hope im wrong

https://m.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101/amp?__twitter_impression=true

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

13 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 Dubious about this but hope im wrong

https://m.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101/amp?__twitter_impression=true

I thought that numerous vaccines were developed within hours of the genetic code being released, but this was not the time consuming bit?

[Avalon_Fields]

41 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 Dubious about this but hope im wrong

https://m.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101/amp?__twitter_impression=true

It'll be spectacular work if it's true. Israel did flag up before they were hopeful of an early vaccine. The details of the how and why are pretty much what an immunologist was stating on the Jeremy Vine show this lunchtime so it is likely to have some degree of credibility.

[Toilet Duck]

1 hour ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I thought that numerous vaccines were developed within hours of the genetic code being released, but this was not the time consuming bit?

Exactly...There's two vaccines in clinical trials at the moment (Here) which has a preliminary completion date of December 2020 and a full study completion date of December 2022 (and here) is the second active trial which has a projected completion date of June 2021 (this is the completely novel RNA vaccine that I mentioned before). It's entirely possible that the Israeli team have something that could work, but the approval step takes a good while (and it should) and then they have to figure out how to make enough of it to satisfy demand. Headlines suggesting "we'll have a vaccine in weeks" are not really that helpful. The correct headline would be "we'll have another new vaccine candidate in weeks". The more the merrier, one of them might turn out to work! 

 

Edit: I should point out that these are the Phase 1 trials (safety and does it generate an immune response). Phase 2 trials could in theory start before these are completed should there be enough data from the ongoing trial to justify it. It'll depend on how the regulators and ethics committees evaluate the emerging data from the trials, but they could start by next summer...similar gap to the Phase 3 and if it all looks good at that stage, then onto production. Certainly won't be vaccinating people en masse in a few weeks. 

Edited April 7, 2020 by Toilet Duck
clarification

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

Actually...that 854 is from guardian feed...

854 new coronavirus deaths reported across UK

And there have been three new coronavirus deaths in Northern Ireland, according to the latest update (pdf) from Northern Ireland’s Public Health Agency.

These three deaths, combined with the 758 from England (see 2.18pm), the 74 from Scotland (see 1.50pm) and the 19 from Wales (see 2.08pm), would take the UK total of new deaths to 854.

We will get an official UK figure from the Department of Health and Social Care later. As Nadine White at HuffPost points out, there is normally a slight difference between the official UK total and the figure produced by the combination of the separate figures for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. That is because some of the reporting criteria differ. Yesterday the official DHSC figure for new UK deaths was 439.

Official UK deaths up by 786 to 6159.

[Sack truck]

They simply cannot rush a vaccine. Everyone takes it then a couple of years in find it causes something else and there would be carnage. Not sure what the answer is but got to hope something changes soon