When will this shit end?

[Madyaker]

9 hours ago, st dan said:

Anybody else’s back starting to give up with make shift working from home arrangements?

My set up (including a spare dining chair) certainly is not up to the required office ergonomics!

Buy a proper chair brother we're in this for the long haul. Or else go into the office and borrow one. Nobodies going to be in there for a while.

[SwedgeAntilles]

22 hours ago, steviewevie said:

Sweden seem to be doing the herd immunity thing we were planning on doing here..not closing schools or advising/enforcing social distancing.

Stockholm resident here, I can give a short summary of what we're doing/not doing as the 'odd one out' in Europe at the moment. Here's what the government have said;

There's only actually been three legislative changes; ban on public events of 50 people or above (until recently this was 500 but was revised down), restaurants/bars must only provide table service and revise seating plans to ensure enough space between, entry ban on people from outside the EU entering Sweden. Aside from that everything else that has come from the government has been 'guidelines'. That advice includes things like;

• Everyone who can work from home should do. 
• Avoid any unnecessary travel both within and outside of Sweden (this now includes any travel during Easter weekend, particularly to the ski resorts which would be otherwise packed out at this time of year). Stockholm residents, in particular, have been asked not to travel as we are the countries virus 'epicentre' at the moment and they want to slow the spread to other regions. 
• Senior high schools, universities and colleges have been asked to close and look at distance learning instead, this has now happened
• Lower schools have been allowed to remain open but many (and nurseries too) have taken a unilateral decision to close anyway.
• Avoid group exercise events and do other activities again (i.e. running, cycling, kayaking alone or in pairs).

So this will probably all seem pretty crazy, and potentially frightening, to you guys in the UK and other countries under lockdown or similar at the moment. To be honest being from the UK and being acutely aware of the situation there it's pretty frightening for me too, so I've spent the last few weeks reading up what I can about the Swedish government approach and trying to understand the rationale behind it. This is what I've been able to gather;

1. Scientists are calling this shots, not politicians - Ultimately while the government makes the legislation, the Public Health Agency is basically running the show. State agencies, including the Public Health Agency, are not able to pass laws themselves, but they can give recommendations to the government. Some of the rules that have been brought in to deal with the virus outbreak, such as restrictions for restaurants and cafes and a ban on public events over 50 people, have come following consultation with the agency. It is written into the national constitution that Sweden's public agencies are independent of the government. There are two main goals of this: ensuring that decisions are made based on knowledge and expertise, and limiting corruption, because ministers cannot have influence in agency decision-making. Overruling government agencies or disregarding their advice is usually seen as politically risky, even though it's not specifically forbidden in most circumstances.
2. Individual responsibility -  this is something that has been mentioned repeatedly by the PM and, from my vantage point, unpins much of their strategy. Swedes have been asked to repay the governments lack of draconian legislation by mitigating the virus spread by their own sense of social responsibility. From speaking to Swedes this is effectively a social contract that exists between the people and the government here and helps explain why the government hasn't felt it necessary (yet!) to impose stringent rules on people's rights. Despite the above 50 people restriction only coming in last week most gigs/events with lower capacity had already been cancelled, people had already decided to 'play it safe'. 
3. Social distancing is already a way of life - speaking very broadly, at the best of times Swedes practice quite a bit of social distancing anyway. Many people in Stockholm live alone, very few families of multiple generations live under the same roof (as perhaps they do in Italy/Spain). This has probably helped limit the spread so far.
4. The great outdoors in an even bigger way of life - There's a running joke in Sweden that the population basically go into hibernation during the winter months, only emerging from their apartments around April/May when the temperatures climb up into the double digits, it's largely true. There would be a big social impact of restricting people's ability to spend time outdoors, particularly at this time of year, and they're keen to avoid/minimise that also.

In addition to the above there's the more 'cynical' reasons a) the economy is hit less b) the 2nd and 3rd waves of the pandemic might hurt less. These are pretty much the same reasons that the UK government was considering as I understand it. 

Even after learning all of the above I'm still really uncomfortable. Particularly when I look at the state of the UK and US today who both dragged their heels on the more extreme measures. Ultimately though we're in uncharted waters and it comparing Sweden to the US, or even the UK, is like comparing apples and oranges. We've also been advised that the next couple of weeks will be tough and that the ICUs in Stockholm are reaching capacity so, like most other countries, it's going to get worse before it gets better. The only question for me is how much more worse will it get going down this road.

This really wasn't that short of a summary at all.

[jparx]

Great update @SwedgeAntilles. Thought of you the other day when they were discussing Sweden's approach on the news. Ultimately only hindsight will tell us the right and wrong appraoches. My hunch is the lockdown method is probably the way to go, but that's mainly because people can't be trusted to acted sensibly. This may be wrong, but the piece on the news said people in Sweden generally have more trust in their government so perhaps the social contract you mention above might be more viable there. I can certainly see the logic in having a longer but lower peak but you have to question why most other counties are going the lockdown route. We'll only know this time next year though.

Stay safe out there and whack on some In Rainbows.

Edited April 1, 2020 by jparx

[Lycra]

11 minutes ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

Stockholm resident here, I can give a short summary of what we're doing/not doing as the 'odd one out' in Europe at the moment. Here's what the government have said;

There's only actually been three legislative changes; ban on public events of 50 people or above (until recently this was 500 but was revised down), restaurants/bars must only provide table service and revise seating plans to ensure enough space between, entry ban on people from outside the EU entering Sweden. Aside from that everything else that has come from the government has been 'guidelines'. That advice includes things like;

• Everyone who can work from home should do. 
• Avoid any unnecessary travel both within and outside of Sweden (this now includes any travel during Easter weekend, particularly to the ski resorts which would be otherwise packed out at this time of year). Stockholm residents, in particular, have been asked not to travel as we are the countries virus 'epicentre' at the moment and they want to slow the spread to other regions. 
• Senior high schools, universities and colleges have been asked to close and look at distance learning instead, this has now happened
• Lower schools have been allowed to remain open but many (and nurseries too) have taken a unilateral decision to close anyway.
• Avoid group exercise events and do other activities again (i.e. running, cycling, kayaking alone or in pairs).

etc

This really wasn't that short of a summary at all.

Provides nice clarity and perspective with which to balance the argument with those advocating the Swedish approach. The situation Sweden is in is distinctly different to the UK and other countries.

[SwedgeAntilles]

35 minutes ago, jparx said:

Great update @SwedgeAntilles. Thought of you the other day when they were discussing Sweden's approach on the news. Ultimately only hindsight will tell us the right and wrong appraoches. My hunch is the lockdown method is probably the way to go, but that's mainly because people can't be trusted to acted sensibly. This may be wrong, but the piece on the news said people in Sweden generally have more trust in their government so perhaps the social contract you mention above might be more viable there. I can certainly see the logic in having a longer but lower peak but you have to question why most other counties are going the lockdown route. We'll only know this time next year though.

Stay safe out there and whack on some In Rainbows.

Way ahead of you mate!

30 minutes ago, Lycra said:

Provides nice clarity and perspective with which to balance the argument with those advocating the Swedish approach. The situation Sweden is in is distinctly different to the UK and other countries.

Cheers, I'll continue to post an update in this thread as and when things change. 

[priest17]

1 hour ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

.

I'm 100% not getting out there for midsummer am I...

[SwedgeAntilles]

4 minutes ago, priest17 said:

I'm 100% not getting out there for midsummer am I...

Probably for the best, have you not seen the movie?

[priest17]

5 minutes ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

Probably for the best, have you not seen the movie?

Not yet, I've been warned off saving it for the plane though.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

1 hour ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

Stockholm resident here, I can give a short summary of what we're doing/not doing as the 'odd one out' in Europe at the moment. Here's what the government have said;

There's only actually been three legislative changes; ban on public events of 50 people or above (until recently this was 500 but was revised down), restaurants/bars must only provide table service and revise seating plans to ensure enough space between, entry ban on people from outside the EU entering Sweden. Aside from that everything else that has come from the government has been 'guidelines'. That advice includes things like;

• Everyone who can work from home should do. 
• Avoid any unnecessary travel both within and outside of Sweden (this now includes any travel during Easter weekend, particularly to the ski resorts which would be otherwise packed out at this time of year). Stockholm residents, in particular, have been asked not to travel as we are the countries virus 'epicentre' at the moment and they want to slow the spread to other regions. 
• Senior high schools, universities and colleges have been asked to close and look at distance learning instead, this has now happened
• Lower schools have been allowed to remain open but many (and nurseries too) have taken a unilateral decision to close anyway.
• Avoid group exercise events and do other activities again (i.e. running, cycling, kayaking alone or in pairs).

So this will probably all seem pretty crazy, and potentially frightening, to you guys in the UK and other countries under lockdown or similar at the moment. To be honest being from the UK and being acutely aware of the situation there it's pretty frightening for me too, so I've spent the last few weeks reading up what I can about the Swedish government approach and trying to understand the rationale behind it. This is what I've been able to gather;

1. Scientists are calling this shots, not politicians - Ultimately while the government makes the legislation, the Public Health Agency is basically running the show. State agencies, including the Public Health Agency, are not able to pass laws themselves, but they can give recommendations to the government. Some of the rules that have been brought in to deal with the virus outbreak, such as restrictions for restaurants and cafes and a ban on public events over 50 people, have come following consultation with the agency. It is written into the national constitution that Sweden's public agencies are independent of the government. There are two main goals of this: ensuring that decisions are made based on knowledge and expertise, and limiting corruption, because ministers cannot have influence in agency decision-making. Overruling government agencies or disregarding their advice is usually seen as politically risky, even though it's not specifically forbidden in most circumstances.
2. Individual responsibility -  this is something that has been mentioned repeatedly by the PM and, from my vantage point, unpins much of their strategy. Swedes have been asked to repay the governments lack of draconian legislation by mitigating the virus spread by their own sense of social responsibility. From speaking to Swedes this is effectively a social contract that exists between the people and the government here and helps explain why the government hasn't felt it necessary (yet!) to impose stringent rules on people's rights. Despite the above 50 people restriction only coming in last week most gigs/events with lower capacity had already been cancelled, people had already decided to 'play it safe'. 
3. Social distancing is already a way of life - speaking very broadly, at the best of times Swedes practice quite a bit of social distancing anyway. Many people in Stockholm live alone, very few families of multiple generations live under the same roof (as perhaps they do in Italy/Spain). This has probably helped limit the spread so far.
4. The great outdoors in an even bigger way of life - There's a running joke in Sweden that the population basically go into hibernation during the winter months, only emerging from their apartments around April/May when the temperatures climb up into the double digits, it's largely true. There would be a big social impact of restricting people's ability to spend time outdoors, particularly at this time of year, and they're keen to avoid/minimise that also.

In addition to the above there's the more 'cynical' reasons a) the economy is hit less b) the 2nd and 3rd waves of the pandemic might hurt less. These are pretty much the same reasons that the UK government was considering as I understand it. 

Even after learning all of the above I'm still really uncomfortable. Particularly when I look at the state of the UK and US today who both dragged their heels on the more extreme measures. Ultimately though we're in uncharted waters and it comparing Sweden to the US, or even the UK, is like comparing apples and oranges. We've also been advised that the next couple of weeks will be tough and that the ICUs in Stockholm are reaching capacity so, like most other countries, it's going to get worse before it gets better. The only question for me is how much more worse will it get going down this road.

This really wasn't that short of a summary at all.

Great update and a very interesting read, thank you. I might be in the minority here, especially with all the reports that the U.K. government ultimately just did a u-turn off the back of the Imperial college report anyway, but I personally think our approach was more considered than that suggests, and timing is key when it comes to introducing the more strict social distancing measures. Depending on how the swedes react you may find that these measures get tightened up anyway, or they might not need to. In the case of a population the size of the U.K. for want of a better phrase, I think you have to ‘give them enough rope to hang themselves’ first and give them the choice and in our case when we inevitably didn’t comply then bring in the tougher measures. I think that helps with compliance in the long run when people are given the choice first, even if that choice is then taken away later on. I think the phased element of it helps as well. It was much the same in the U.K. as you described it in Sweden, a lot of businesses and events took matters into their own hands first, so there was a natural element of social distancing before anything was enforced. On one hand this can make the government seem incompetent, but in reality in my opinion it helps in the long run. These are extraordinary times, yet weirdly it kind of seems normal even though we’ve only officially been in lockdown for a week, because we’ve had time to adjust to the situation gradually over time. Italy’s quarantine wasn’t really phased in, yet they knew it was coming therefore they had a mad scramble of people trying to avoid it which did a fantastic job of spreading the virus even more. There isn’t a single model or report anywhere that will show the U.K. getting anywhere near the death figures that sadly Italy or Spain will hit, that’s despite regular criticism that we sat on our hands and acted too slowly. This is despite us going into lockdown with less than half the deaths Italy had by the time they did, with us having phased in measures even two weeks before that. There is no one size fits all model that will work unilaterally across every country. 

[jparx]

21 minutes ago, priest17 said:

Not yet, I've been warned off saving it for the plane though.

I watched it on the plane to NYC just before Christmas. No idea why they've allowed that movie to be shown on a plane, in public, with kids around.

[Lycra]

A glimmer of hope and positivity from the front line. The first recovered patient has left Mrs Lycra's unit.

[Wellyboot]

4 minutes ago, Lycra said:

A glimmer of hope and positivity from the front line. The first recovered patient has left Mrs Lycra's unit.

That's good news  

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, Lycra said:

A glimmer of hope and positivity from the front line. The first recovered patient has left Mrs Lycra's unit.

Good news.

I read somewhere that about 50% of those that go into intensive care die. Not sure if that's accurate or not as at the moment there's so much stuff flying about.

[grumpyhack]

 

[gibble]

40 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Good news.

I read somewhere that about 50% of those that go into intensive care die. Not sure if that's accurate or not as at the moment there's so much stuff flying about.

Hi - it's not accurate. It's a misreading of the stats...

https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1243992443415982086?s=20

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

13 minutes ago, gibble said:

Hi - it's not accurate. It's a misreading of the stats...

https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1243992443415982086?s=20

I saw something posted on here or somewhere else (will see if I can find it) that showed the probability over time of somebody on a critical condition dying from Covid-19. I think from memory the highest odds came after 2-3 days and the trailed off from there. That might seem obvious but essentially the longer someone is in a critical condition beyond 2-3 days the greater the probability they will eventually pull through rather than not. So it follows on that there will be a number of people across the country that have been in a critical condition for a week or longer, that ultimately have a greater than 50% chance of being discharged at some point.

[zahidf]

Edinbrugh fringe cancelled.

[jparx]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

Edinbrugh fringe cancelled.

Is that the cancellation with the most notice so far in the UK? 

[efcfanwirral]

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/03/31/behind-closed-doors-johnson-and-his-cabinet-do-not-applaud-the-nhs-they-ideologically-oppose-it/

Nothing new here but a reminder that we'll all collectively pay for this "help" we're getting right now....

[lukethekid]

14 hours ago, crazyfool1 said:

Yep it’s that time of year ... I guess family’s will have bbqs too ... but rain would make a difference to keeping people inside too .. we moved our entire homeshop operation to outside opening hours ... 2am - 8am and yesterday I was asked if I wanted to go back on those hours ... I declined ... that might mess me up more !! Our store have been quite good with individual health related requests ... so maybe you can phrase it something like that 

We don’t have a night team, there’s no one in the shop overnight and I am 100% convinced that we’ve been told that we can’t work nights due to them having to pay us more. In the Tesco Express stores, they have been alright in accommodating staff that have pre-existing conditions, giving people 12 weeks paid leave and being off with full pay for 2 weeks if you need to isolate. They have put Perspex screens up in front of the tills but they were installed by the staff and the dipstick that installed ours has installed one too high so if you’re a bit shorter like Mrs Kid it’s absolutely useless and then the other is too short so passing shopping underneath it is like a challenge off the Krypton Factor. 

14 hours ago, gizmoman said:

"it’s just frustrating seeing the same faces in the shop multiple times per day" can totally understand your annoyance at this, they are making it harder for your other customers too, I would tell them it's max 2 visits per day, your management need to know about this.

As for the BBQ comment, there's no harm in people wanting to be outdoors and as long as they stay in their own gardens with their own kids I can't see why you're so negative, it can't be easy trying to keep kids entertained 24/7 and letting them have a bit of time cooking in the garden is going to get them some fresh air and hopefully sunshine too.

Management already know about it, we had a discussion about the way we can go about it, and we were told we can’t refuse anybody service. I asked could we threaten it and was told yes. So there have been a few people threatened with not being served, I told a fella the other day, and then he asked how many times per day can he come in to the shop, I said the government request was once. He then bought what he would have came back and bought later on 🤷🏼‍♂️ 
The BBQ thing I can blatantly see why it would look like a bitter comment and it is to a degree because I just don’t think it’s essential shopping. The commitments that people are making to stay in work is massive. Doctors and Nurses are not seeing their kids for 4/5/6 months so they can work and the kids stay with their grandparents during this whole mess and then people are going from shop to shop trying to find BBQ stuff making this whole problem worse. 

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, jparx said:

Is that the cancellation with the most notice so far in the UK? 

Yup! Though that's more setting up. Takes around 2 months to set up and the international artists won't be able to make it. They say they may do a smaller, local version if they can nearer the time.

[Lycra]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

Good news.

I read somewhere that about 50% of those that go into intensive care die. Not sure if that's accurate or not as at the moment there's so much stuff flying about.

I'm not going to be drawn on how many have died or death rates, but its very significant. Mrs Lycra describes the situation as "horrific". From a personal and family point of view what's occurring is extremely troubling/worrying given Mrs Lycra's exposure to Coronavirus.

[EasyUserName]

12 minutes ago, lukethekid said:

 ...The BBQ thing I can blatantly see why it would look like a bitter comment and it is to a degree because I just don’t think it’s essential shopping. The commitments that people are making to stay in work is massive. Doctors and Nurses are not seeing their kids for 4/5/6 months so they can work and the kids stay with their grandparents during this whole mess and then people are going from shop to shop trying to find BBQ stuff making this whole problem worse. 

There is a whole new layer of inequality opening up in society because of this situation.

 

I was talking to someone this morning who bitterly regretted that they could not go on furlong, as their employer provided a critical service (non-medical but supporting equipment).  They were very negative, did a half-job and left early complaining the whole time about others they knew “sitting at home with free money” to paraphrase. 

 

I’m not suggesting this applies to you, but I can see how this will leave people with different feelings to the whole affair, and very bitter towards others they perceive to have “had it easier”.  Especially when the bill comes due to pay it all back (extra taxes for all etc).

 

Ripe for exploitation by politicians in the future too of course, as a nice distraction from the real issues.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

2 minutes ago, EasyUserName said:

There is a whole new layer of inequality opening up in society because of this situation.

 

 

 

I was talking to someone this morning who bitterly regretted that they could not go on furlong, as their employer provided a critical service (non-medical but supporting equipment).  They were very negative, did a half-job and left early complaining the whole time about others they knew “sitting at home with free money” to paraphrase. 

 

 

 

I’m not suggesting this applies to you, but I can see how this will leave people with different feelings to the whole affair, and very bitter towards others they perceive to have “had it easier”.  Especially when the bill comes due to pay it all back (extra taxes for all etc).

 

 

 

Ripe for exploitation by politicians in the future too of course, as a nice distraction from the real issues.

 

A friend of mine works for a very large company who have furloughed half their staff, but they’re making all their wages up to the 100%. He is a very good at his job and hasn’t been furloughed, he doesn’t actually want to be because he said he’d go mad at home. It stands to reason that when companies are choosing staff to furlough in a lot of cases they’ll furlough the ‘worst’ ones. So at his company the worst performing staff are being paid 100% of their salary to not work for 3 months. Obviously after 3 months they might lose their job so there is that to consider, but it’s an interesting dynamic that up and down the country perhaps a lot of less deserving people are getting paid to not have to work.

[lukethekid]

10 minutes ago, EasyUserName said:

There is a whole new layer of inequality opening up in society because of this situation.

 

 

 

I was talking to someone this morning who bitterly regretted that they could not go on furlong, as their employer provided a critical service (non-medical but supporting equipment).  They were very negative, did a half-job and left early complaining the whole time about others they knew “sitting at home with free money” to paraphrase. 

 

 

 

I’m not suggesting this applies to you, but I can see how this will leave people with different feelings to the whole affair, and very bitter towards others they perceive to have “had it easier”.  Especially when the bill comes due to pay it all back (extra taxes for all etc).

 

 

 

Ripe for exploitation by politicians in the future too of course, as a nice distraction from the real issues.

 

I’m not bitter about still by going to work, it’s my choice to do the job that I do. It’s just frustrating seeing that we’ve had to take some drastic actions in our household so we can still continue to go to work and people are using it as a bit of an added holiday. Obviously you need to live your life, nobody is saying that you can’t leave your house under no circumstances but if you give people an inch they’ll take a mile and there is definitely some cases of that going on now.