When will this shit end?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

10 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

there are a lot of people on social media suspicious of these death rates, arguing that people are dying of other causes but also just happen to have covid19.

There is bound to be some overlap, most people who succumb have underlying health conditions. If they contract Corona and die you’d have to say it’s that which has tipped them over the edge, for want of a better phrase.

One thing I’m not clear on at all and perhaps somebody ITK can answer this, does Corona lead to a pneumonia like infection, or pneumonia itself? Presumably if it leads to Pneumonia then Corona is still the cause of death? It’s pretty common for flu to lead to getting pneumonia as well (viral and bacterial) but what is generally given as the cause of death in this instance, pneumonia or flu? 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[northernringo]

41 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Busted! I put a lot more thought into my username here than I did over there 😆

Probably not hard to figure out who I am over there either!

[steviewevie]

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by steviewevie

[eFestivals]

24 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

there are a lot of people on social media suspicious of these death rates, arguing that people are dying of other causes but also just happen to have covid19.

most of the people dying from covid-19 are really dying from pneumonia. The covid-19 causes the pneumonia.

[Smeble]

20 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

there are a lot of people on social media suspicious of these death rates, arguing that people are dying of other causes but also just happen to have covid19.

If you are seriously ill enough to be finished off by covid 19 whether you die of what you already had or covid19 is semantics, although I obviously don’t want to belittle the medical expertise of randoms on social media.

[Mark E. Spliff]

12 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

One thing I’m not clear on at all and perhaps somebody ITK can answer this, does Corona lead to a pneumonia like infection, or pneumonia itself? Presumably if it leads to Pneumonia then Corona is still the cause of death? It’s pretty common for flu to lead to getting pneumonia as well (viral and bacterial) but what is generally given as the cause of death in this instance, pneumonia or flu? 

Pneumonia isn't a specific infection, i.e. it's not linked to a specific bacteria.  It's the deepest hidy-holes in your lungs filling with fluid, and it can be caused by all sorts of bugs and nasties.

I know that pathologist in The Spectator has been slated, but one thing he did explain clearly, and was within his field of expertise, was the following:

"If someone dies of a respiratory infection in the UK, the specific cause of the infection is not usually recorded, unless the illness is a rare ‘notifiable disease’. So the vast majority of respiratory deaths in the UK are recorded as bronchopneumonia, pneumonia, old age or a similar designation."

A mate of mine is a retired GP, who's certified many deaths, and he'd explained the above to me over a year ago, so at least the above bit of The Spectator doc's article checks out.

[Lycra]

34 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

there are a lot of people on social media suspicious of these death rates, arguing that people are dying of other causes but also just happen to have covid19.

A lot of people are living good lives with conditions which are exacerbated by Coronavirus, often with a fatal outcome. In all her years in critical & acute respiratory Mrs Lycra siad that she never seen anything ever like this in her long career. The unit has a very high number of covid-19 positive patients, many critically ill. In her words "never seen so many deaths in such short period of time".  😦

 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

17 minutes ago, Mark E. Spliff said:

Pneumonia isn't a specific infection, i.e. it's not linked to a specific bacteria.  It's the deepest hidy-holes in your lungs filling with fluid, and it can be caused by all sorts of bugs and nasties.

I know that pathologist in The Spectator has been slated, but one thing he did explain clearly, and was within his field of expertise, was the following:

"If someone dies of a respiratory infection in the UK, the specific cause of the infection is not usually recorded, unless the illness is a rare ‘notifiable disease’. So the vast majority of respiratory deaths in the UK are recorded as bronchopneumonia, pneumonia, old age or a similar designation."

A mate of mine is a retired GP, who's certified many deaths, and he'd explained the above to me over a year ago, so at least the above bit of The Spectator doc's article checks out.

Thanks for explaining, but does that mean a lot more people actually die from initially contracting flu than the numbers reflect? But everyone who died that was infected with CV will be recorded as such?

[stuartbert two hats]

3 minutes ago, Lycra said:

A lot of people are living good lives with conditions which are exacerbated by Coronavirus, often with a fatal outcome. In all her years in critical & acute respiratory Mrs Lycra siad that she never seen anything ever like this in her long career. The unit has a very high number of covid-19 positive patients, many critically ill. In her words "never seen so many deaths in such short period of time".  😦

 

Does Mrs Lycra go to Glastonbury?  If so, make sure she comes to the meet next year so that we can shower her with gifts.  What she's doing is truly heroic.

[steviewevie]

Raab show tonight.

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Does Mrs Lycra go to Glastonbury?  If so, make sure she comes to the meet next year so that we can shower her with gifts.  What she's doing is truly heroic.

This. Must be so traumatic.

[Lycra]

17 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Does Mrs Lycra go to Glastonbury?  If so, make sure she comes to the meet next year so that we can shower her with gifts.  What she's doing is truly heroic.

Yes Mrs Lycra loves the fest and will be hoping for a ticket for 2021...as will I.

[Lycra]

15 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

This. Must be so traumatic.

I've witnessed people die but not on the scale or regularity she has/does. I've written elsewhere that she's emotionally numb until she's had the first glass of wine when she gets home. She says dying fighting for breath is not a nice death.

[stuartbert two hats]

8 minutes ago, Lycra said:

Yes Mrs Lycra loves the fest and will be hoping for a ticket for 2021...as will I.

Well that's one thing we can all do on here - help on resale/t-day.

[Mark E. Spliff]

48 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Thanks for explaining, but does that mean a lot more people actually die from initially contracting flu than the numbers reflect? But everyone who died that was infected with CV will be recorded as such?

You mean are flu deaths under-recorded?  It would seem so based on what the Spectator doc and my GP mate are saying.  In fact, they're saying that death rates for specific respiratory diseases aren't usually recorded at all, unless it's a notifiable one, e.g. mesothelioma from asbestos exposure.  And if Covid19 deaths are now being recorded, whereas old-skool influenza wasn't, that would imply Covid19 is being over-recorded, relative to seasonal flu.

The controversy with this Spectator doc is that he's then going on to make a case that it's a possibility that Covid19 is no more lethal than seasonal flu.  The statistical analysis goes beyond my understanding, but I'm instinctively reluctant to accept this point of view if only because I don't trust the people that do - e.g. Trump and co.  As always, I'll wait for a peer-reviewed expert opinion to come along before picking sides, and currently, there seems to be a consensus amongst the experts that this is a much greater threat than seasonal flu.

[stuartbert two hats]

10 minutes ago, Mark E. Spliff said:

You mean are flu deaths under-recorded?  It would seem so based on what the Spectator doc and my GP mate are saying.  In fact, they're saying that death rates for specific respiratory diseases aren't usually recorded at all, unless it's a notifiable one, e.g. mesothelioma from asbestos exposure.  And if Covid19 deaths are now being recorded, whereas old-skool influenza wasn't, that would imply Covid19 is being over-recorded, relative to seasonal flu.

The controversy with this Spectator doc is that he's then going on to make a case that it's a possibility that Covid19 is no more lethal than seasonal flu.  The statistical analysis goes beyond my understanding, but I'm instinctively reluctant to accept this point of view if only because I don't trust the people that do - e.g. Trump and co.  As always, I'll wait for a peer-reviewed expert opinion to come along before picking sides, and currently, there seems to be a consensus amongst the experts that this is a much greater threat than seasonal flu.

I know the plural of anecdotes isn't data, but individual stories can help with a sanity check to data driven conclusions.  What I'm saying is that stories of Mrs Lyrcra's shifts 2 weeks before the predicted peak most certainly do not match up with a theory that this might not be worse than seasonal flu.

[Mark E. Spliff]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

I know the plural of anecdotes isn't data, but individual stories can help with a sanity check to data driven conclusions.  What I'm saying is that stories of Mrs Lyrcra's shifts 2 weeks before the predicted peak most certainly do not match up with a theory that this might not be worse than seasonal flu.

I wouldn't dismiss anyone's first-hand experiences of this - I've witnessed a number of deaths in hospitals, and it's grim at the best of times, so I can't imagine how horrific it must be when cases are over-running the palliative care resources.

However, as you say: data trumps anecdotes, so that's what I'd base my opinion on, which is problematic when I'm not a statistician and I've got zero medial knowledge...  However, as I said, I'm on board with the consensus that this is a much greater threat than seasonal flu, based on my assessment of the credibility of the epidemiological experts rather than the data they're arguing over.

[stuartbert two hats]

17 minutes ago, Mark E. Spliff said:

I wouldn't dismiss anyone's first-hand experiences of this - I've witnessed a number of deaths in hospitals, and it's grim at the best of times, so I can't imagine how horrific it must be when cases are over-running the palliative care resources.

However, as you say: data trumps anecdotes, so that's what I'd base my opinion on, which is problematic when I'm not a statistician and I've got zero medial knowledge...  However, as I said, I'm on board with the consensus that this is a much greater threat than seasonal flu, based on my assessment of the credibility of the epidemiological experts rather than the data they're arguing over.

In general, data does trump anecdotes, but some anecdotes are too compelling to ignore. If your data is telling you that COVID-19 isn't more dangerous than flu, then that strongly suggests you have a problem either with your data or your interpretation of the data.

I'm aware that I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

40 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I know the plural of anecdotes isn't data, but individual stories can help with a sanity check to data driven conclusions.  What I'm saying is that stories of Mrs Lyrcra's shifts 2 weeks before the predicted peak most certainly do not match up with a theory that this might not be worse than seasonal flu.

This is not meant to take take away from individual experiences with hospitals and I’m sure for some it’s extremely harrowing, but there is a large degree of regionality to it as well as what the data is saying. No doubt in certain areas of London and places like Birmingham (having a quick look at the stats) it’s pretty horrific, but I live in a Greater London area and my LEA has just over 40 confirmed cases across four Hospitals. So people’s experiences there may be very different. Again this is not meant to detract from the seriousness of it in the slightest, but it’s not necessarily the case that every Hospital in the country is currently overwhelmed, but there are a number of hotspots where I’m sure it’s pretty grim.

My point about the Flu was simply to establish how cause of death figures are recorded for it, if you get flu and then contact pneumonia how is this recorded? It was not meant to diminish the severity of CV.

Edited March 30, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[zahidf]

 

 

 

[whitehorses]

As I *understand it Germany reports deaths according to the underlying condition not Covid. Hence why their death rate seems lower. So if we do switch to that kind of reporting we’re not alone. 

*i don’t know if this is true though 

[Toilet Duck]

40 minutes ago, whitehorses said:

As I *understand it Germany reports deaths according to the underlying condition not Covid. Hence why their death rate seems lower. So if we do switch to that kind of reporting we’re not alone. 

*i don’t know if this is true though 

They have said that’s not the case. Appears to be down to the massive amounts of testing (almost 500,000 per week), so they have a more accurate count of infections. It’s notable that the two countries with the highest testing rates (South Korea & Germany) also have among the lowest fatality rates (even though infection rates are high enough). It’s probably the best estimate of the fatality rate among symptomatic patients (how many asymptomatic carriers there are is another matter). There’s other cultural contributors to the low death rate compared to Italy and Spain as well, both of those countries have a higher median age of cases, which obviously plays a role. The health service in Germany isn’t completely swamped yet either, so triaging patients based on probability of survival hasn’t happened either, which would spike fatalities massively (see Italy and Spain again)...so, lots of factors all adding up to why Germany is doing well.

Edited March 30, 2020 by Toilet Duck
Typos again!

[Brave Sir Robin]

I think Germany is mainly the testing, but also their superior healthcare facilities. A 2011 survey found they had 29 hospital beds per 100,000 population - we had just 6, and if anything have gone backwards since.

Meanwhile we are still only testing 5,000 a day, despite promises of more - another symptom of our delay in adopting the consensus approach.

At least the police are being reminded that they’re there to enforce the law, not make it up: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/30/uk-police-guidelines-coronavirus-lockdown-enforcement-powers-following-criticism-lord-sumption?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[eFestivals]

24 minutes ago, Brave Sir Robin said:

At least the police are being reminded that they’re there to enforce the law, not make it up:

they haven't got that for the last 170 years, I doubt they're going to start now.  

[Zoo Music Girl]

Sorry, they did what?!