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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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Full lockdown until June is actually earlier than I was expecting at this point, and I was quite surprised to see mention of late May.

Interesting to see what the lighter restrictions would be after that point. Return to work and shops/restaurants reopen with social distancing measures, and no mass gatherings? Feel like that bit is going to be the hardest to control.

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This is probably a stupid question but fuck it: if you test positive for having had the virus already and therefore being immune, are you still potentially at risk of spreading it? I don't even mean as a carrier but like physically on your hands if touching surfaces etc. I guess scrupulous hand washing would help to avoid that?

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Just now, Zoo Music Girl said:

This is probably a stupid question but fuck it: if you test positive for having had the virus already and therefore being immune, are you still potentially at risk of spreading it? I don't even mean as a carrier but like physically on your hands if touching surfaces etc. I guess scrupulous hand washing would help to avoid that?

The MD section in the private eye actually says that weekly deaths in feb are actually down on average from last year, which he puts down  to the handwashing increase in the UK which reduced other diseases as well as Covid19

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On 3/28/2020 at 6:21 AM, zahidf said:

Seema like a bad idea

 

 

 

 

I don't think anyone really wants to live life governed by these restrictions, and I doubt anyone in a major UK political party really wants to be in a government imposing them. But lifting them prematurely is a massive fucking risk.

Edited by charlierc
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4 minutes ago, charlierc said:

I don't think anyone really wants to live life governed by these restrictions, and I doubt anyone in a major UK political party really wants to be in a government imposing them. But lifting them prematurely is a massive fucking risk.

Surely there is no way they will be lifted if deaths are still going up. And sadly I think they will be by then.

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15 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Surely there is no way they will be lifted if deaths are still going up. And sadly I think they will be by then.

it's just more confusing mixed messages coming out of govt...because they're probably arguing about strategies amongst themselves. I don't think they can say for sure when any restrictions will be lifted...have to see how numbers react to current restrictions, if don't start coming down in a week or two then probably have tighter restrictions.

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26 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Surely there is no way they will be lifted if deaths are still going up. And sadly I think they will be by then.

Deaths won’t be going up, deaths will be going down after 5 weeks of a lockdown starting or potentially sooner. That doesn’t mean they won’t rise again which is the big problem.

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4 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Deaths won’t be going up, deaths will be going down after 5 weeks of a lockdown starting or potentially sooner. That doesn’t mean they won’t rise again which is the big problem.

I don't think we can say this for certain? All depends on how successful the lockdown is surely.

Also just to clarify I was responding to the tweets about 12 April, which is around three weeks in.

Edited by Zoo Music Girl
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2 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

I don't think we can say this for certain? All depends on how successful the lockdown is surely.

Also just to clarify I was responding to the tweets about 12 April, which is around three weeks in.

Oh ok, yeah fair enough that would be close. Either way It would defy logic for deaths not to be going down within 5 weeks through. The deaths were seeing now are from infections from before lockdown. The amount of deaths we’ll see once lockdown had been in place, the virus has had time to incubate, manifest itself and run its full course within the unfortunate individuals has to be a lower number.

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2 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Oh ok, yeah fair enough that would be close. Either way It would defy logic for deaths not to be going down within 5 weeks through. The deaths were seeing now are from infections from before lockdown. The amount of deaths we’ll see once lockdown had been in place, the virus has had time to incubate, manifest itself and run its full course within the unfortunate individuals has to be a lower number.

City mapper had London  traffic down to 25% last weekend and 9% of normal this weekend. I think the lockdown overall seems to be changing people's behaviour. I think maybe more enforcement of current regulations is better than more regulations?

As a cynic, I think the govt may want a boost of an early end to lockdown rather than a later one.. 

Edited by zahidf
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2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Its worth noting that Spain are only ordering non essential workers to stay home for 2 weeks on Monday 

And about 800 people died there in the last 24 hours? I wouldn’t be following their example. Who knew ice skating rings made such good morgues 🙁

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What I'm really interested to see is how many people actually do have the virus, and just haven't been tested because their symptoms were only mild or even just had none at all. I remember a while ago the government saying they thought that between 5 and 10 thousand people had the virus. If that number has increased at the same rate as detected cases, I wonder how many people actually have been infected by now..

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Just now, Madyaker said:

And about 800 people died there in the last 24 hours? I wouldn’t be following their example. Who knew ice skating rings made such good morgues 🙁

? I'm making the point that the UK and europe have different ways of doing the lockdown. I wasnt saying which one was better, I'm just pointing out that saying saying some countries have been in lockdown longer isnt necessarily an accurate indicator 

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Just now, Madyaker said:

And about 800 people died there in the last 24 hours? I wouldn’t be following their example. Who knew ice skating rings made such good morgues 🙁

Apparently in this country we might be using the articial ski slopes.

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Just now, NerdsNatterings said:

What I'm really interested to see is how many people actually do have the virus, and just haven't been tested because their symptoms were only mild or even just had none at all. I remember a while ago the government saying they thought that between 5 and 10 thousand people had the virus. If that number has increased at the same rate as detected cases, I wonder how many people actually have been infected by now..

I saw somewhere that the estimate is that ten times as many people as officially recorded actually have the virus

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1 minute ago, NerdsNatterings said:

What I'm really interested to see is how many people actually do have the virus, and just haven't been tested because their symptoms were only mild or even just had none at all. I remember a while ago the government saying they thought that between 5 and 10 thousand people had the virus. If that number has increased at the same rate as detected cases, I wonder how many people actually have been infected by now..

There are the antibody tests to determine this, but won't be available for everyone for a while yet.

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Just now, NerdsNatterings said:

What I'm really interested to see is how many people actually do have the virus, and just haven't been tested because their symptoms were only mild or even just had none at all. I remember a while ago the government saying they thought that between 5 and 10 thousand people had the virus. If that number has increased at the same rate as detected cases, I wonder how many people actually have been infected by now..

Scientists on the radio here reckon in most countries real case numbers are actually 10x or 20x the confirmed number due to very low rates of testing. The antibody test will clear this up hopefully. 

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1 minute ago, zahidf said:

I saw somewhere that the estimate is that ten times as many people as officially recorded actually have the virus

Yeah seems about right. Seems insane that we're potentially approaching 1% of the population having it.

Just now, steviewevie said:

There are the antibody tests to determine this, but won't be available for everyone for a while yet.

Yeah I'll be interested to see how it plays out once we get the antibody tests, I suppose at least for the purpose of knowing more about the virus it could be really helpful

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There is, as I understand it, a risk that we might get a "second peak" when lockdown is relaxed. The standard "bell curve" epidemic model assumes that as you come down the slope after peak infection that the herd immunity will prevent a second acceleration as people who have not been infected are not immune to the disease/infection but are less likely to come into contact with someone else who has it. This is the balance that teh government has to get right. Relax too early and get a second peak, potentially going into Winter instead of coming out of it and relax too late and damage the economy and people's lives uneccessarily. I think I'd prefer a couple of weeks more lockdown to a second peak.

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56 minutes ago, Rumblestripe said:

There is, as I understand it, a risk that we might get a "second peak" when lockdown is relaxed. The standard "bell curve" epidemic model assumes that as you come down the slope after peak infection that the herd immunity will prevent a second acceleration as people who have not been infected are not immune to the disease/infection but are less likely to come into contact with someone else who has it. This is the balance that teh government has to get right. Relax too early and get a second peak, potentially going into Winter instead of coming out of it and relax too late and damage the economy and people's lives uneccessarily. I think I'd prefer a couple of weeks more lockdown to a second peak.

Unless the antibody test ends up confirming a lot more of us have actually had it then a second peak is inevitable. What we’re doing now is simply pressing the pause button, a couple more weeks or even months of it won’t make a difference once things are relaxed. So it will either be repeated pausing and relaxation until the vaccine is ready, or relaxation and aggressive contact tracing like they’ve successfully managed in Singapore. If anything the longer measures like this are in place the greater the risk you push another peak into next winter.

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I’m living with a housemate and who has decided they can’t be bothered with social distancing anymore either. Visiting their boyfriend and their family and friends like nothing is wrong. Their excuse is that the police won’t stop them.

I’m actively not seeing my family because they are all in an extremely vulnerable position. I am not seeing friends either because I don’t want to be part of the problem. To have people close to me just give up on this already, we’ve got a long road ahead of us.

A childhood friend texted me yesterday and told me that their grandparents are both in the ICU because of this virus. They live in the middle of nowhere, no idea how they of all people got it. Stay safe everyone x

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2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I’m living with a housemate and who has decided they can’t be bothered with social distancing anymore either. Visiting their boyfriend and their family and friends like nothing is wrong. Their excuse is that the police won’t stop them.

I’m actively not seeing my family because they are all in an extremely vulnerable position. I am not seeing friends either because I don’t want to be part of the problem. To have people close to me just give up on this already, we’ve got a long road ahead of us.

A childhood friend texted me yesterday and told me that their grandparents are both in the ICU because of this virus. They live in the middle of nowhere, no idea how they of all people got it. Stay safe everyone x

While it’s frustrating that people don’t follow the measures, bear in mind that all the government modelling to deal with it is based on a certain amount of non compliance. I think from memory the Imperial College modelling was based on 75% compliance with the measures.

This is not me making excuses for your flat mate, but rather me saying try not to worry about it too much, as long as you’re doing the right thing any steps to deal with it will make allowances for those who don’t.

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