When will this shit end?

[dotdash79]

3 hours ago, DareToDibble said:

This is surely going to be the case in every country? This is the worst part - they will easy social distancing rules and within a week we'll be back where we are now as it'll spread again.

I don't pretend to understand how this all works though so happy for someone to tell me (please!) why this isn't the case.

It's like opening a bottle of fizzy drink that you have dropped, open it to quickly and you are fucked. Opening it and close it a few times you can get it open without it going everywhere.

[stuartbert two hats]

10 minutes ago, dotdash79 said:

It's like opening a bottle of fizzy drink that you have dropped, open it to quickly and you are fucked. Opening it and close it a few times you can get it open without it going everywhere.

That's a pretty good analogy.

[Sawdusty surfer]

6 hours ago, eFestivals said:

dammit  ... I'd seen somewhere about business rates, so that's me very probably excluded as i work from home.

Same here. Looked into it. Not happening.

Due to recent self inflicted breakages, last three years income averages not looking too clever either!

[stuartbert two hats]

43 minutes ago, Sawdusty Surfer said:

Same here. Looked into it. Not happening.

Due to recent self inflicted breakages, last three years income averages not looking too clever either!

Got any wood sculptures to sell? Maybe that could be a way to get some income.

Edited March 27, 2020 by stuartbert two hats

[arcade fireman]

IMO broadly, two ways this will go. Not an epidemiologist but have some working knowledge from the public health lectures I slept through during my medical degree. Adapted a bit from something I wrote elsewhere..

Some of it depends on how successful suppression is at bringing down the rate of transmission. This is not an easy thing to do and whilst we should absolutely do everything we can to flatten the curve, I'm not convinced how successful it'll be.

It's a sobering thought but I think the most likely scenario is still herd immunity albeit - since policy changes two weeks ago - not by design. Italy locked down on March 9th. They have very strict restrictions - more so than us. This has reduced their day on day rise in cases from 25% day on day increase to 8% day on day increase. France's cases are still increasing 11-13% despite needing a piece of paper to show police where you're going. The % death rates increases day on day are decreasing too - but the absolute numbers have climbed so much they're still devastating numbers in Italy and Spain.

Only this is still a problem. It's still significant exponential growth, albeit a less steep curve. The hospitals and ICUs still get overwhelmed eventually with an 8% rise. The reason why there's still a large rise day on day is partly because the virus lives pretty well on surfaces or fomites as they're termed in this context. Also quite a few people still do need to get out and go to work. So people still bring the virus back home to their families. What lockdown measures could the Italians be putting in that's even stricter than what they have currently? The Chinese model simply isn't an option in Europe.

Currently the UK is on 14,000 cases. There is very likely considerably more than that who have been infected. But we will go with 14,000. Currently we are growing 20-25% cases per day.

For the next three months, if we drop down to 15% day on day growth for a week, 8% day on day growth for a month then we grow at 4% day on day for the rest of that time? This would be a huge reduction in % increase and you'd think this would be a successful lockdown.

3 million detected cases based on current testing schedules after 3 months. 180k deaths on current case fatality rate - the actual fatality rate is nowhere near this much for Covid-19, but since we're only testing people in hospital the CFR will be higher. We will very likely be testing more by then so the CFR will decrease, but number of cases will increase with it. Halve this - consider likely older people might not get it so much if not leaving the house - and it's still a disaster.

2.5% growth over the following 3 months gets us to 27 million cases. By this point herd immunity very likely will have been reached by accident rather than design - indeed it likely will have been reached long before this due to the large numbers of undetected cases.

This is also where the blood tests come in. It's very likely that from a few weeks time our number of cases will shoot up as it'll reveal people who've been asymptomatic carriers or who have been undiagnosed. How many? Who knows. But it also isn't the game changer that people say it is - absolutely it has uses eg HCWs, but antibodies take a few days to show up and so it won't necessarily do that much to stop asymptomatic transmission. It may be useful later on in this scenario to estimate when herd immunity is reached, though we still are unsure how long any immunity would last.

Once this point is reached, normal life would essentially resume in the UK. There would still be the odd Covid-19 case, but it wouldn't spread as it'd keep running into people who'd already had it assuming immunity for at least some time. But the deaths and cost to the NHS would be huge.

The second scenario is suppression is achieved. Over the next few months we flatten the curve and then mass testing allows us to identify asymptomatic carriers better. We can identify people who need to be isolated more easily. We bring down number of new cases per day to a few thousand/day, then a few hundred/day, then a few dozen a day which public health authorities can track/trace. Cases are disproportionately geared towards younger healthier people as older people have been staying in. After some time some bars/restaurants may be able to open again with caveats.

But in this scenario there'd need to be still significant restrictions until a vaccine was found. A second surge is still a big threat in this scenario as some Asian countries are finding. Another option is whether antiviral medications can either act as prophylaxis or easy treatment, but IMO this is a longer shot than a vaccine. A vaccine will be found, but it'll take time. Likely large scale events like Glasto will be off the cards until this point and there would also be significant travel restrictions as new outbreaks could start from imported cases. Maybe travel to certain other countries where it had been stamped out would be allowed. 

Edited March 28, 2020 by arcade fireman

[steviewevie]

8 hours ago, dotdash79 said:

It's like opening a bottle of fizzy drink that you have dropped, open it to quickly and you are fucked. Opening it and close it a few times you can get it open without it going everywhere.

good analogy

[zahidf]

Seema like a bad idea

 

 

 

 

[steviewevie]

4 hours ago, arcade fireman said:

 

This is also where the blood tests come in. It's very likely that from a few weeks time our number of cases will shoot up as it'll reveal people who've been asymptomatic carriers or who have been undiagnosed. How many? Who knows. But it also isn't the game changer that people say it is - absolutely it has uses eg HCWs, but antibodies take a few days to show up and so it won't necessarily do that much to stop asymptomatic transmission. It may be useful later on in this scenario to estimate when herd immunity is reached, though we still are unsure how long any immunity would last.

Couldn't this bit be a game changer in that could allow a whole bunch of people to not have to follow social distancing restrictions...especially health workers etc?

[eFestivals]

11 hours ago, zahidf said:

In case this is helpful to anyone 

 

 

glad to see the "can perform their statutory duties when furloughed" bit confirmed, as I was wondering about that part as it's an obvious part a one-employee company could be caught out on.

Presumably I'm able to keep on giving my company the many other free hours it gets from me, and just furlough myself for the paid element ... cos if the govt don't agree with it working that way they'll be endorsing people like me working for less than NMW.

[arcade fireman]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

Couldn't this bit be a game changer in that could allow a whole bunch of people to not have to follow social distancing restrictions...especially health workers etc?

It would be useful for HCWs for sure.

But outside of this in terms of social distancing it wouldn't be useful for a while. Because outside of HCWs social distancing is a societal thing - just because a bunch of people have +ve antibodies it doesn't mean they can open the bars/restaurants again if loads don't. Plus people wouldn't know who has antibodies and doesn't so people would naturally want to socially distance anyway.

If suppression fails as a strategy then it may help later on however - doing random sampling could provide govt with an estimate of how many people have had it but who weren't tested or even symptomatic. If a large number - say a majority - have been shown to have +ve antibodies then this would certainly influence decisions to relax restrictions. And I think 60% is the figure where herd immunity would be assumed.

[arcade fireman]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Seema like a bad idea

 

 

 

 

What do they class as the peak?

If it's peak pressure on the hospital system, this is a fantasy. Cases are still rising 20-25% day on day, and these would only be starting to feed into the system on 12th April.

If it's new cases then possible, though I would still be sceptical.

 

[mattiloy]

12 hours ago, zahidf said:

In case this is helpful to anyone 

 

 

I'm all for helping as many people as possible out of an economic crisis but it wrankles that business owners who often pay themselves a lot more than their staff and pay it in dividends so they pay less tax with a justification that they should be rewarded according to the risk they take, should then receive equivalent benefits when things go bad. All too happy to whip the rainy day cash out of the business when times are good to buy a new merc and then all too happy to throw the employees under the bus when times are bad. The system needs to change after this.

[Homer]

13 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

The holy grail is to do what Singapore do:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/singapore-coronavirus-app-tracking-testing-no-shutdown-how-it-works-2020-3%3famp

Not read the article yet, but my mate is in Singa and they seem to have a fairly normal life there. Can still go to bars and the beach. Diff seems to be that everywhere there respects the rules and sticks to them (tables in bars are all spaced out, etc). 

My mate says that no-one there wants to be shamed as the one who let the side down. I can only conclude that we here have no shame!

[Homer]

I got furloughed yesterday,  am on 80% pay as of Weds and can't work. Now need to decide whether to volunteer for the NHS. Anyone else other than @Superscallyin the same situ yet?

[Madyaker]

 

[eFestivals]

20 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

I'm all for helping as many people as possible out of an economic crisis but it wrankles that business owners who often pay themselves a lot more than their staff and pay it in dividends so they pay less tax with a justification that they should be rewarded according to the risk they take, should then receive equivalent benefits when things go bad.

that's how it is with some people but not everyone. A huge number of business owners pay themselves less than their employees (which I often hear from my accountant).

For example, this business owner hasn't made anywhere near as much per-hour as the employees he's had over the past 2 decades.

On the few occasions there's been a better year I've minimised the profit and so also the dividend while maximising what I pay in tax by increasing my wages (although still earning less than employees).

On top of that - because i'm pro-tax - I've always run my own wages as PAYE which means I pay more in (personal) NI than I would if I was self-employed instead, as well as loading employers NI onto the company (an extra £1k+ per year to the govt).

And despite doing the right thing towards tax, right now I find myself and my business (combined) in a bit of a black hole with the support available from govt. I'd be getting the exact same support if I had been rinsing the tax system as much as I could be doing.

Even tho I'm moaning, I recognise the govt has done a great job (overall) in getting support out there for most people, and even tho it's frustrating for a number in reasons from my particular circumstances that support will keep a roof over my head and food in my belly which is more than some others will be getting. Shame it's likely to fuck my business tho, rather than support it through it.

Edited March 28, 2020 by eFestivals

[mcshed]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

glad to see the "can perform their statutory duties when furloughed" bit confirmed, as I was wondering about that part as it's an obvious part a one-employee company could be caught out on.

Presumably I'm able to keep on giving my company the many other free hours it gets from me, and just furlough myself for the paid element ... cos if the govt don't agree with it working that way they'll be endorsing people like me working for less than NMW.

Obviously I'm just a drone so things are a bit different but we have been told we can't do the unpaid extra social media stuff some of us do when furloughed as although we do it unpaid normally it still counts as work.

[Homer]

15 minutes ago, mcshed said:

Obviously I'm just a drone so things are a bit different but we have been told we can't do the unpaid extra social media stuff some of us do when furloughed as although we do it unpaid normally it still counts as work.

Weirdly, pretty much the only instruction I've had has also been 'you can't do any social media' free in your spare time (I'm sure I'll manage).

[eFestivals]

5 minutes ago, mcshed said:

Obviously I'm just a drone so things are a bit different but we have been told we can't do the unpaid extra social media stuff some of us do when furloughed as although we do it unpaid normally it still counts as work.

Yeah, makes sense in general terms, for the company to cover itself to avoid any possible comeback - but is that a company that still has one or more people working to keep it ticking over in some way?

It's difficult in my position of the business being just-me. If I furlough myself and do nothing at all that's essentially the death of the business. The only benefit is I get to have a few months off courtesy of a govt but when that support has gone I'd have to get a job somewhere else.

Because it would take months of work to build the income streams back up in order for the business to be able to pay me, whereas if I could keep things ticking over in a minimal way over the 'closed' months the income streams would almost-instantly be back.

When the support measures are meant to stop businesses going under, that all seems a bit stupid.

[eFestivals]

the more I think about this, the more fucking stupid the rules are.

If I furlough myself I can't do the work to claim the govt support I'd otherwise be entitled to, and i can't do the work to run the payroll to pay myself with the money I (won't be) getting from the govt as support.   

[mcshed]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

Yeah, makes sense in general terms, for the company to cover itself to avoid any possible comeback - but is that a company that still has one or more people working to keep it ticking over in some way?

It's difficult in my position of the business being just-me. If I furlough myself and do nothing at all that's essentially the death of the business. The only benefit is I get to have a few months off courtesy of a govt but when that support has gone I'd have to get a job somewhere else.

Because it would take months of work to build the income streams back up in order for the business to be able to pay me, whereas if I could keep things ticking over in a minimal way over the 'closed' months the income streams would almost-instantly be back.

When the support measures are meant to stop businesses going under, that all seems a bit stupid.

Yeah we still have some people working so things can be kept ticking over. I get that you are in a different position but it does suggest there has been government advice for furloughed employees to not do unpaid work. I suppose it depends on what you can define as essential obligations as director, or missing out on the furlough payments.

Do you think there are enough people in a similar position that the treasury will be pressured into doing more? I've seen some performers on Facebook who are set up as LTD companies and paying themselves principly in dividends in a similar pickle.

[Yoghurt on a Stick]

The acclaimed Italian novelist Francesca Melandri, who has been under lockdown in Rome for almost three weeks due to the Covid-19 outbreak, has written a letter to fellow Europeans “from your future”, laying out the range of emotions people are likely to go through over the coming weeks.

I am writing to you from Italy, which means I am writing from your future. We are now where you will be in a few days. The epidemic’s charts show us all entwined in a parallel dance.

We are but a few steps ahead of you in the path of time, just like Wuhan was a few weeks ahead of us. We watch you as you behave just as we did. You hold the same arguments we did until a short time ago, between those who still say “it’s only a flu, why all the fuss?” and those who have already understood.

As we watch you from here, from your future, we know that many of you, as you were told to lock yourselves up into your homes, quoted Orwell, some even Hobbes. But soon you’ll be too busy for that.

First of all, you’ll eat. Not just because it will be one of the few last things that you can still do.

You’ll find dozens of social networking groups with tutorials on how to spend your free time in fruitful ways. You will join them all, then ignore them completely after a few days.

You’ll pull apocalyptic literature out of your bookshelves, but will soon find you don’t really feel like reading any of it.

You’ll eat again. You will not sleep well. You will ask yourselves what is happening to democracy.

You’ll have an unstoppable online social life – on Messenger, WhatsApp, Skype, Zoom…

You will miss your adult children like you never have before; the realisation that you have no idea when you will ever see them again will hit you like a punch in the chest.

Old resentments and falling-outs will seem irrelevant. You will call people you had sworn never to talk to ever again, so as to ask them: “How are you doing?” Many women will be beaten in their homes.

You will wonder what is happening to all those who can’t stay home because they don’t have one. You will feel vulnerable when going out shopping in the deserted streets, especially if you are a woman. You will ask yourselves if this is how societies collapse. Does it really happen so fast? You’ll block out these thoughts and when you get back home you’ll eat again.

You will put on weight. You’ll look for online fitness training.

You’ll laugh. You’ll laugh a lot. You’ll flaunt a gallows humour you never had before. Even people who’ve always taken everything dead seriously will contemplate the absurdity of life, of the universe and of it all.

You will make appointments in the supermarket queues with your friends and lovers, so as to briefly see them in person, all the while abiding by the social distancing rules.

You will count all the things you do not need.

The true nature of the people around you will be revealed with total clarity. You will have confirmations and surprises.

Literati who had been omnipresent in the news will disappear, their opinions suddenly irrelevant; some will take refuge in rationalisations which will be so totally lacking in empathy that people will stop listening to them. People whom you had overlooked, instead, will turn out to be reassuring, generous, reliable, pragmatic and clairvoyant.

Those who invite you to see all this mess as an opportunity for planetary renewal will help you to put things in a larger perspective. You will also find them terribly annoying: nice, the planet is breathing better because of the halved CO₂ emissions, but how will you pay your bills next month?

You will not understand if witnessing the birth of a new world is more a grandiose or a miserable affair.

You will play music from your windows and lawns. When you saw us singing opera from our balconies, you thought “ah, those Italians”. But we know you will sing uplifting songs to each other too. And when you blast I Will Survive from your windows, we’ll watch you and nod just like the people of Wuhan, who sung from their windows in February, nodded while watching us.

Many of you will fall asleep vowing that the very first thing you’ll do as soon as lockdown is over is file for divorce.

Many children will be conceived.

Your children will be schooled online. They’ll be horrible nuisances; they’ll give you joy.

Elderly people will disobey you like rowdy teenagers: you’ll have to fight with them in order to forbid them from going out, to get infected and die.

You will try not to think about the lonely deaths inside the ICU.

You’ll want to cover with rose petals all medical workers’ steps.

You will be told that society is united in a communal effort, that you are all in the same boat. It will be true. This experience will change for good how you perceive yourself as an individual part of a larger whole.

Class, however, will make all the difference. Being locked up in a house with a pretty garden or in an overcrowded housing project will not be the same. Nor is being able to keep on working from home or seeing your job disappear. That boat in which you’ll be sailing in order to defeat the epidemic will not look the same to everyone nor is it actually the same for everyone: it never was.

At some point, you will realise it’s tough. You will be afraid. You will share your fear with your dear ones, or you will keep it to yourselves so as not to burden them with it too.

You will eat again.

We’re in Italy, and this is what we know about your future. But it’s just small-scale fortune-telling. We are very low-key seers.

If we turn our gaze to the more distant future, the future which is unknown both to you and to us too, we can only tell you this: when all of this is over, the world won’t be the same.

[Sasperella]

Hi @Yoghurt on a Stick - I read the above article in the guardian yesterday. It's quite beautiful! I already recognise a lot of the things she talks about even though we're only a few days in. It is weird thinking about what lies ahead for Italy (and then us in turn)....

[steviewevie]

UK number of deaths up by 260 to 1019. Ugh.

[philipsteak]

6 hours ago, Homer said:

I got furloughed yesterday,  am on 80% pay as of Weds and can't work. Now need to decide whether to volunteer for the NHS. Anyone else other than @Superscallyin the same situ yet?

Me. Only getting the 80%, but didn't expect any more. We've just refunded millions of pounds to people, for bookings all the way through to end of July (June and July two of our biggest months, May not far behind). They have also reduced the rent for live in staff to 80% for the furloughed period which I wasn't expecting and was a nice gesture. I'll be fine. My main outgoing was my already very cheap rent, and it's now cheaper.

Edited March 28, 2020 by philipsteak