When will this shit end?

[steviewevie]

in the end the choice might come down to global economic depression vs the 1%.

[Matt42]

Italy has overtaken China in both confirmed cases and deaths 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

Italy has overtaken China in both confirmed cases and deaths 

and also have to take into account size of populations.

Spain not too far behind...but the really scary one could be the US.

[Matt42]

Just now, steviewevie said:

and also have to take into account size of populations.

Spain not too far behind...but the really scary one could be the US.

I want to hear a rational explanation for how it is worse in Italy than it is in China. The ground zero of the virus where it was circulating for weeks undiagnosed.

How is it worse in Italy than there? 

[Brave Sir Robin]

2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I want to hear a rational explanation for how it is worse in Italy than it is in China. The ground zero of the virus where it was circulating for weeks undiagnosed.

How is it worse in Italy than there? 

Failure/inability to properly enforce a lockdown. A more tactile culture, and an older and less obedient populace. Plus, almost ceratinly, more accurate numbers re deaths in Italy...

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I want to hear a rational explanation for how it is worse in Italy than it is in China. The ground zero of the virus where it was circulating for weeks undiagnosed.

How is it worse in Italy than there? 

Age of population ? 

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Age of population ? 

And culture. China has experience of vaccines over the years and culturally are less huggy e.t.c

[northernringo]

12 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I want to hear a rational explanation for how it is worse in Italy than it is in China. The ground zero of the virus where it was circulating for weeks undiagnosed.

How is it worse in Italy than there? 

China went in to a pretty much full military lock-down straight away.

[Matt42]

I think the easier explanation is that China is having the rest of the world off.

[Matt42]

11 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Age of population ? 

Explain Spain then...

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Matt42 said:

Explain Spain then...

over to someone else ... 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

I think the easier explanation is that China is having the rest of the world off.

You know when I said you were right about almost everything?  This inability to appreciate China's ability to deal with the virus is why I didn't quite say you were right about everything. Once China got their shit together, they really really did respond effectively.  Sure, they might be lying about some of the numbers, but China is particularly well set up to be able to deal with this.  They have huge resources, huge technical skills and most importantly, extremely strong centralised control.  It makes perfect sense that they would be able to stamp control on the population quickly and effectively. 

Whilst they might still have large areas of poverty, they're not a third world country, they're an economic superpower.

[Matt42]

6 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

You know when I said you were right about almost everything?  This inability to appreciate China's ability to deal with the virus is why I didn't quite say you were right about everything. Once China got their shit together, they really really did respond effectively.  Sure, they might be lying about some of the numbers, but China is particularly well set up to be able to deal with this.  They have huge resources, huge technical skills and most importantly, extremely strong centralised control.  It makes perfect sense that they would be able to stamp control on the population quickly and effectively. 

Whilst they might still have large areas of poverty, they're not a third world country, they're an economic superpower.

The highest daily death count reported by China was something like 108. Pretty much every major country has surpassed that at some stage. We’ve passed it today.

Theres manipulating numbers and then there is that. You’re going to tell me that China never got like that at all? How can you trust anything from China when you look at comparative statistics. 

Wake up man.

Edited March 26, 2020 by Matt42

[eFestivals]

4 hours ago, zahidf said:

Positive?

yeah, it was clear that's what had happened when Wilf Zaha suddenly had 50 empty houses in London.

Let's hope airbnb dies a painful death.

[Madyaker]

10 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

The highest daily death count reported by China was something like 108. Pretty much every major country has surpassed that at some stage. We’ve passed it today.

Theres manipulating numbers and then there is that. You’re going to tell me that China never got like that at all? How can you trust anything from China when you look at comparative statistics. 

Wake up man.

You know they built 2 hospitals in less than 3 weeks and flew in thousands of doctors and nurses and equipment from all over the country. It’s a billion and a half people who will do exactly as the government tells them. That sort of stuff just isn’t an option for us. 

[Sasperella]

10 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

The highest daily death count reported by China was something like 108. Pretty much every major country has surpassed that at some stage. We’ve passed it today.

Theres manipulating numbers and then there is that. You’re going to tell me that China never got like that at all? How can you trust anything from China when you look at comparative statistics. 

Wake up man.

The Chinese are currently donating medical supplies to Spain to deal with the virus. Do you think they're doing that to cover up the fact that they have way more deals than they're letting on?

I actually find it kind of offensive how some people seen to jump on the fact that it's China and they must be lying. 

[eFestivals]

1 hour ago, marcoolio said:

Thanks! Can't say I'm completely following his analysis here. It's probably my lack of knowledge in this area. Although my confidence in this particular blog isn't helped by looking at his previous article, which seems to claim Kim Jong Un is secretly wearing an oxygen mask that is indistinguishable from his own face.

I didn't repeat what were clearly his own conclusions from the data. I classed them as interesting to read but not necessarily on the money (there's a lot of amateurs talking shite).

I took what he said about the WHO analysis as gospel, but as Toilet Duck pointed out it's an estimate.

From that, tho, it does appear to be the case that the virus was in Europe for quite a while before the first positive tests.

[eFestivals]

43 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I want to hear a rational explanation for how it is worse in Italy than it is in China. The ground zero of the virus where it was circulating for weeks undiagnosed.

How is it worse in Italy than there? 

because it was circulating in Italy for weeks undiagnosed.

Basically, the first positive tests were of people who died - which says it'd been circulating for at least 2+ weeks before it was detected.

[eFestivals]

23 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

You know when I said you were right about almost everything?  This inability to appreciate China's ability to deal with the virus is why I didn't quite say you were right about everything. Once China got their shit together, they really really did respond effectively.  Sure, they might be lying about some of the numbers, but China is particularly well set up to be able to deal with this.  They have huge resources, huge technical skills and most importantly, extremely strong centralised control.  It makes perfect sense that they would be able to stamp control on the population quickly and effectively. 

Whilst they might still have large areas of poverty, they're not a third world country, they're an economic superpower.

on top of that the crisis was only in a small part of the country - which meant it had loads of resources to re-deploy to Wuhan & area.

[Sasperella]

33 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Explain Spain then...

The Guardian do that quite well...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/spain-coronavirus-response-analysis

Woeful response. Similarly, Italy had a few mass gatherings/protests in the north after it had hit. New Orleans being one of the worst hit place in the US (particularly in relation to population density) had Mardi Gras. 

Policy is important. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

The population of China is a red herring, it’s largely irrelevant. Hubei was locked down while the rest of the country was able to function fairly normally. Think of it like London being hit with it so we quarantine it off from the rest of the U.K. which can then go on as normal.

Population of Hubei is around 60 million, Wuhan is around 8 million so similar to London.

Think of at as Hubei Vs U.K., or Hubei vs Italy for comparisons, not China Vs anybody as it’s not relevant.

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, Matt42 said:

I want to hear a rational explanation for how it is worse in Italy than it is in China. The ground zero of the virus where it was circulating for weeks undiagnosed.

How is it worse in Italy than there? 

Probably one for the history books. Maybe down to China's more draconian policies. Maybe society in China willing to follow rules more, whereas in Europe more liberal, more rebellious. Maybe there's the Italian kissing on greeting thing, or just in general being more touchy feely? Maybe it's older people in Italy being more integrated? Maybe high amount of tourists in Italy? Maybe China are just better equipped in general for these epidemics due to SARS etc. Maybe China were and are still lying?

[steviewevie]

11 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

The population of China is a red herring, it’s largely irrelevant. Hubei was locked down while the rest of the country was able to function fairly normally. Think of it like London being hit with it so we quarantine it off from the rest of the U.K. which can then go on as normal.

Population of Hubei is around 60 million, Wuhan is around 8 million so similar to London.

Think of at as Hubei Vs U.K., or Hubei vs Italy for comparisons, not China Vs anybody as it’s not relevant.

Yeah, but it was hitting round same time as Chinese new year so there was a massive amount of movement within China, and there would already be a large amount of people infected...there were outbreaks elsewhere in China but they managed to contain them.

[mcshed]

8 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

on top of that the crisis was only in a small part of the country - which meant it had loads of resources to re-deploy to Wuhan & area.

Even when there isn't a pandemic internal travel in China is way more difficult than even most international travel in the west. My brother has lived there for over 7 years and whilst his overseas worker VISA allows him to go between provinces often his Spring festival traveling has been curtailed by his local partner who will have a work visa for wherever she is working and the ability to go to her home province and that's it, she would need to be authorised and to pay for the privilege of she wanted to travel somewhere else. 

[Lycra]

When will it end?

14 days after the last case.....

At this very moment Mrs Lycra is nursing covid-19 patients all struggling to breathe and dangerously ill. She sees death regularly and it's hard not to bring work home.

How do you deal with the witnessing several people die in 12hrs......A bottle of red wine helps!

It all begins again tomorrow!

So why does it end 14 days after the last case?  

For that's when we will both be free to come out of our personal quarantine bubble.