When will this shit end?

[Bisque]

Just played Bongo’s Bingo with friends on Zoom. Their twitch is on next Thursday, mixture of bingo & quizzes. Great fun after a couple of beers. Proper cheered me up!

Edited March 24, 2020 by Bisque

[Ozanne]

36 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Talk of Spain and Italy growth beginning to slow I believe 

I saw that, I’d love to believe it meant the start of an improvement. 

[whitehorses]

On 3/23/2020 at 9:38 PM, stuartbert two hats said:

Didn't seem confusing to me. You're being told to stay home. If you're not a key worker and you can't work from home you're off work.

Quite, seems pretty clear to me. It only seems confusing if people are determined to make it confusing. 
 

(That isn’t to say there are good answers for many people)
 

 

Edited March 24, 2020 by whitehorses

[stuartbert two hats]

14 minutes ago, whitehorses said:

Quite, seems pretty clear to me. It only seems confusing if people are determined to make it confusing. 
 

(That isn’t to say there are good answers for many people)
 

 

Actually I take it back. After watching the news conference today I've no fucking idea who should be going to work.

[whitehorses]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

Actually I take it back. After watching the news conference today I've no fucking idea who should be going to work.

Watching newsnight just confused me too  

[Brownie30]

Scheme today launched to get 250,000 volunteer responders to assist the NHS with tasks - ranging from delivering medical supplies to NHS sites, to delivering food to vulnerable / elderly individuals or even just being there for a chat over the phone with lonely, self-isolating individuals. 

Personally think this is a fantastic scheme, and will be investigating whether it's possible for me to contribute - though my Dad being in the vulnerable category and in the same home may put paid to this. Anyone else interested, all information can be found here: https://www.goodsamapp.org/NHSvolunteerresponders

[dizzymoo]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

Is there any good news out there regarding this, any signs of light?

A tiny bit, from Inside Health on Radio 4.  One reason for the high death rate in Italy, apart from the aged population, is that the rate of smoking there is twice that in the UK. Although there isn't yet a treatment or vaccine for the virus, there is a vaccine for pneumococcal bacterium which can be a cause of serious pneumonia occuring as an opportunistic infection.  None of which means we can go out and party...

[DeanoL]

7 hours ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

I thought we weren't supposed to be mixing with anyone outside our household? Your friends might be only going to the shop like you, but it could be a different shop to the one you go to. So you could get it from them and spread there, for example.

We get groceries delivered so that wasn't an issue. But yeah my new point was the new rules do indeed disallow that, even though it's not necessarily problematic. What we were doing was something we chose to do a couple of weeks ago - mostly as we were hoping to see family over Easter, though that won't be happening now.

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:

I feel the coming death numbers (we're still more or less on Italy's course) will scare more into compliance for longer. 

yup, and I reckon after a scarily-high daily death rate, it's going to be hard for the govt to say "we can relax the measures now because only 100 are dying each day now".

I reckon we're locked-in to major lock-down restrictions for a long long time.  

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

10 hours ago, Ozanne said:

Is there any good news out there regarding this, any signs of light?

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/24/coronavirus-may-already-infected-half-uk-population-12451012/

[zahidf]

53 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

yup, and I reckon after a scarily-high daily death rate, it's going to be hard for the govt to say "we can relax the measures now because only 100 are dying each day now".

I reckon we're locked-in to major lock-down restrictions for a long long time.  

I assume 3 months is the govts vague understanding, give or take a couple of weeks. If in lockdown, the death rate and virus will eventually burn out. 

 

Trumps being an idiot but I think his way of thinking is eventually going to be other governments thinking. (After a longer lockdown)

Edited March 25, 2020 by zahidf

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

The FT also running the above story: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

I’m honestly not trying to clutch at straws here, but to me unless I’m missing something glaringly obvious this makes perfect sense. China had this in December if not earlier, they only admitted to the WHO that human to human transfer was possible on 21st January, we didn’t ban flights from China until well into February.

So is it plausible to say that not one infected person came in to the U.K. from China between December (or earlier) And February? I might be wrong but I’d imagine quite a few probably did, so it’s feasible to suggest the virus was spreading here for the whole of January without any detection.

 

 

[zahidf]

12 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

The FT also running the above story: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

I’m honestly not trying to clutch at straws here, but to me unless I’m missing something glaringly obvious this makes perfect sense. China had this in December if not earlier, they only admitted to the WHO that human to human transfer was possible on 21st January, we didn’t ban flights from China until well into February.

So is it plausible to say that not one infected person came in to the U.K. from China between December (or earlier) And February? I might be wrong but I’d imagine quite a few probably did, so it’s feasible to suggest the virus was spreading here for the whole of January without any detection.

 

 

That's a highly speculative study and I'm taking it with a massive pinch of salt.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

10 minutes ago, zahidf said:

That's a highly speculative study and I'm taking it with a massive pinch of salt.

So it’s not at all plausible that somebody with the virus flew here from China by mid January? 

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

So it’s not at all plausible that somebody with the virus flew here from China by mid January? 

Wouldn't they have flown to other European countries? The death rate in Spain and italy completely goes against that study 

[zahidf]

Fuck sakes

 

 

[jparx]

3 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

So it’s not at all plausible that somebody with the virus flew here from China by mid January? 

I'll completely defer to the experts, but it does seem strange to me knowing what we know now that we had all that BBC news footage of people arriving at Heathrow from Wuhan, being asked if they had any checks before take off/landing and NONE of those people had the virus and spread it. As a layman that seems unlikely seeing how easily this thing spreads but there may be a very sensible reason.

[Madyaker]

I'm not sure about the UK but in Ireland I think we'll see these restrictions relaxed some time in May, we'll probably go full lockdown before then though. Based on the numbers here and the exponential spread of this virus I think by the start of may about 70% of the population here will have become infected. That would be in line with what our PM said in a press conference about 2 weeks ago. So if 70% are infected by the start of May, 2 weeks after that in mid may sometime surely almost all the people who are going to die from this will already be dead and the rest will have immunity so the virus will slow right down as there's just not that many new people for it to infect. I would imagine at that point restrictions surely become pointless? It's also worth noting that all our measures to slow the spread of the virus will also prolong this process and Ireland only has a population of 4.5 million. Id imagine it'll take longer in larger countries.

Realistically once the virus starts to slow down and the numbers get small again the general population aren't going to accept being to told to only leave their homes for essential business and stay 2 metres apart from others at all times.

Edited March 25, 2020 by Madyaker

[jparx]

3 minutes ago, Madyaker said:

I'm not sure about the UK but in Ireland I think we'll see these restrictions relaxed some time in May, we'll probably go full lockdown before then though. Based on the numbers here and the exponential spread of this virus I think by the start of may about 70% of the population here will have become infected. That would be in line with what our PM said in a press conference about 2 weeks ago. So if 70% are infected by the start of May, 2 weeks after that in mid may sometime surely almost all the people who are going to die from this will already be dead and the rest will have immunity so the virus will slow right down as there's just not that many new people for it to infect. I would imagine at that point restrictions surely become pointless? It's also worth noting that all our measures to slow the spread of the virus will also prolong this process and Ireland only has a population of 4.5 million. Id imagine it'll take longer in larger countries.

Realistically once the virus starts to slow down and the numbers get small again the general population aren't going to accept being to told to only leave their homes for essential business and stay 2 metres apart from others at all times.

That's going to be one of the difficulties I think. Most people are playing by the rules now because the numbers are on the rise and we're looking at Italy as basically a prediction on our future, but once we hit the peak and new cases start to drop, it will be much more difficult to keep the same level of control. Especially as the weather gets warmer and we hit bank holidays. 

I can personally see us ending up with some kind of alternating restrictions between now and the Autumn. I'm quite content to sit in my house working from home and playing video games at night rather than hitting the pub, but the majority won't be happy with that for the next 6 months. They've already mentioned the behavioural aspect a fair bit, but that will be a big consideration especially over the summer. My prediction has been I'll be back at work come the start of June but that may end up shifting depending on what happens with Italy.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

17 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Wouldn't they have flown to other European countries? The death rate in Spain and italy completely goes against that study 

Surely the same principle applies to these countries as well? They just had more infected visitors sooner than they thought. The reality is it was in China in December or even earlier. It would’ve been spreading across the globe from that point on.

[Zoo Music Girl]

7 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Surely the same principle applies to these countries as well? They just had more infected visitors sooner than they thought. The reality is it was in China in December or even earlier. It would’ve been spreading across the globe from that point on.

I read somewhere that the first case was recorded on 17 November (I remember as it's my birthday!).

[chibukushakeshake]

31 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Wouldn't they have flown to other European countries? The death rate in Spain and italy completely goes against that study 

One of the big issues in Italy was this grade A piece of c**tery by a paper over there

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/08/leaked-coronavirus-plan-to-quarantine-16m-sparks-chaos-in-italy

[eFestivals]

1 hour ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/24/coronavirus-may-already-infected-half-uk-population-12451012/

that's got to be bull, unfortunately.  

It only takes a quick think about the still-rising death numbers in worse-infected Italy to know that's not true for the UK.

[priest17]

7 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

I read somewhere that the first case was recorded on 17 November (I remember as it's my birthday!).

That's the date Happy Feet was released.

[eFestivals]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

I assume 3 months is the govts vague understanding, give or take a couple of weeks. If in lockdown, the death rate and virus will eventually burn out. 

and then when the measures are relaxed, it'll shoot up again.

"Hey people, we've got some good news. You can now go to the pub but you're going to make loads more people die". 

 

 

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Trumps being an idiot but I think his way of thinking is eventually going to be other governments thinking. (After a longer lockdown)

Nah. Trump's thinking won't be how the US goes. Even if he tries it, state governors will take their own measures.