When will this shit end?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

3 minutes ago, Wooderson said:

Last week you were happy with 100 of 1000s of deaths.

Was I?

[wilby-wilbert]

12 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

That would be a good thing though surely? The same amount of people being infected each day that is? That would suggest things are improving and not spreading exponentially? Surely anything that isn’t exponential growth is a positive.

I suppose if cases arent increasing exponentially that is a positive in a way. But its not on its own an indication that the rate of spread is in any way manageable for health services that are already beyond capacity. 

Something like number of hospital/icu beds or ventilators needed vs number available on a given day would be a better measure to my mind. That situation can worsen while the daily % increase in cases falls. 

From limited reading the average time from first symptoms to death is between 2 and 3 weeks. 

 

[MetaKate]

A lockdown cant go on for ever. 

When we get sick, most illnesses we've dealt with have an average incubation of 2 days. That means you come into contact with someone, the next say they say "oh I've got the flu not" and the next day you have it. The rate of contagion is low. 

Once you're infected, naturally, most people self-isolate 1. Because they feel like shit 2. Because they dont want to get other people sick. 

The difference with Corona, is its massively contagious before anyone shows any symptoms, which can be up to a 2 week period. At the 2 week point all new cases should be theoretically self-identifyable. 

So if you put your country into a hard lockdown technically after 2 weeks all cases should be identifiable and all other potential new cases should be traceable. It's like hitting a reset button on it "running wild" as someone else mentioned. 

Again, theoretically if you shut your borders and stopped all movement for about 6 weeks the virus would be eliminated. 

The problem comes after, as you cant keep borders shut indefinitely. The other issue is there seem to be quite a few outlying cases which arent behaving as predicted. People talking about reinfection, etc. 

They have developed a test for antibodies so we should know that soon enough. 

I would predict most countries wont leave major restrictions in place for any longer than a couple of months. Life needs to resume, for the sake of the economy.

[whitehorses]

3 hours ago, wilby-wilbert said:

I think its almost guaranteed to reemerge in the winter given the chances of a vaccine before then are almost 0 from what I have read. 

No but we might have better anti virals by then 

[Yoghurt on a Stick]

Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

Winston Churchill.

[HeyPorter]

Getting quite annoyed at the use of the word “frontline” in this topic. If you’ve got a counter in front of you and decently enforced patient contact then you’ve got it not too bad compared to a lot of us in the NHS who don’t like to shout about maybe being a bit more in the thick of it. 

Edited March 22, 2020 by HeyPorter

[Suprefan]

9 hours ago, Chrisp1986 said:

Basic question, when do people genuinely think live music will restart and life gets back to normal?

Best case the fall, worst case next summer.  Apocalypse scenario is we get our Glasto tickets rolled over til 2022.

Edited March 23, 2020 by Suprefan

[Smeble]

8 hours ago, Sasperella said:

Not unless he has a crystal ball!

I'm hoping for August/September, but worried it could reemerge in November 😕

Well that can be levelled at anyone asking the question. A member of the medical community will have more knowledge than a bunch of randoms on a festival forum.

[Smeble]

3 hours ago, HeyPorter said:

Getting quite annoyed at the use of the word “frontline” in this topic. If you’ve got a counter in front of you and decently enforced patient contact then you’ve got it not too bad compared to a lot of us in the NHS who don’t like to shout about maybe being a bit more in the thick of it. 

The only people on the frontline are forces personnel. Hate the use of at the coal face as well.

i think the term ‘doing what they are paid to do’ works well in this situation. 

[Chrisp1986]

9 hours ago, HeyPorter said:

Getting quite annoyed at the use of the word “frontline” in this topic. If you’ve got a counter in front of you and decently enforced patient contact then you’ve got it not too bad compared to a lot of us in the NHS who don’t like to shout about maybe being a bit more in the thick of it. 

And you think pharmacists just stand behind a counter? There lies the problem.

[Ted Dansons Wig]

49 minutes ago, Chrisp1986 said:

And you think pharmacists just stand behind a counter? There lies the problem.

 

10 hours ago, HeyPorter said:

Getting quite annoyed at the use of the word “frontline” in this topic. If you’ve got a counter in front of you and decently enforced patient contact then you’ve got it not too bad compared to a lot of us in the NHS who don’t like to shout about maybe being a bit more in the thick of it. 

Not sure arguing who's the more frontline is helpful.

If you're keeping people on the road at the mo,  you're alright in my book. I'd buy either of you a pint

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, Ted Dansons Wig said:

 

Not sure arguing who's the more frontline is helpful.

If you're keeping people on the road at the mo,  you're alright in my book. I'd buy either of you a pint

absolutely .... whatever job you do ... nobody signed up to this ... 

[Chef]

13 hours ago, MetaKate said:

I would predict most countries wont leave major restrictions in place for any longer than a couple of months. Life needs to resume, for the sake of the economy.

I think this is an important point. I would assume - I don't know and don't necessarily agree - that there is some kind of 'tipping point' where the major restrictions will be lifted regardless of what the virus is doing. This could be due to a number of factors but any irreversible damage to the economy will have to be weighed up. 

 

[jparx]

19 minutes ago, Ted Dansons Wig said:

 

Not sure arguing who's the more frontline is helpful.

If you're keeping people on the road at the mo,  you're alright in my book. I'd buy either of you a pint

Great comment, great username.

Edited March 23, 2020 by jparx

[DareToDibble]

5 minutes ago, Chef said:

I think this is an important point. I would assume - I don't know and don't necessarily agree - that there is some kind of 'tipping point' where the major restrictions will be lifted regardless of what the virus is doing. This could be due to a number of factors but any irreversible damage to the economy will have to be weighed up. 

 

Beat me to it. I suspect things will start to become open and available again towards June/July time. 

[stuartbert two hats]

7 hours ago, Smeble said:

The only people on the frontline are forces personnel. Hate the use of at the coal face as well.

i think the term ‘doing what they are paid to do’ works well in this situation. 

I strongly disagree with this.  "doing what they are paid to do" doesn't some close to describing the once simple, now heroic act of going to work every day for those treating the COVID-19 patients.

[Ted Dansons Wig]

8 hours ago, Smeble said:

The only people on the frontline are forces personnel. Hate the use of at the coal face as well.

i think the term ‘doing what they are paid to do’ works well in this situation. 

They're not paid to be working without adequate protection, which is what NHS staff are currently being asked to do.

Sounds pretty frontline to me

[mcshed]

8 hours ago, Smeble said:

The only people on the frontline are forces personnel. Hate the use of at the coal face as well.

i think the term ‘doing what they are paid to do’ works well in this situation. 

Do you live in an entirely literal world? Being on the frontline or at the coal face is metaphorical language, but if you are going to be painfully pedantic your modern forces personal aren't ever "on the frontline" in the same way as the metaphor is invoking either.

[Yoghurt on a Stick]

8 hours ago, Smeble said:

i think the term ‘doing what they are paid to do’ works well in this situation. 

Do you? It would appear that others, including myself, would disagree with you. Surely you have to question your own stance, if those around you are telling you otherwise, and nobody is steaming in to back you up?

[Dave85radiohead]

8 hours ago, Smeble said:

The only people on the frontline are forces personnel. Hate the use of at the coal face as well.

i think the term ‘doing what they are paid to do’ works well in this situation. 

I think this is the stupidest and most selfish comment I've ever seen on here.

Nobody signed up for this and the NHS staff and health care workers who are putting their health and their family's health at risk to help others are amazing.

Even putting that risk aside, how would you react if  your work told you that your hours were doubling with no increase in pay,all your annual leave was cancelled and you couldn't even have the most basic protective equipment to your job?

 

 

[ogriff]

1 hour ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I strongly disagree with this.  "doing what they are paid to do" doesn't some close to describing the once simple, now heroic act of going to work every day for those treating the COVID-19 patients.

My mrs is paid to be an oncology registrar.  I'm not sure that not treating cancer patients because large parts of the hospital are being given over to palliate those that under ordinary circumstances wouldn't die, but due to the need to prioritise coronavirus/ a lack of ICU beds, will be kept as comfortable as possible but ultimately they won't have resources to treat, is part of her JD.  It's not even really kicked off yet where we are, and she's both exhausted and terrified. 

As a civil servant, I'm currently being paid to not do my job, so that I can look after the kids allowing a doctor to be at work.  Which is weird.

If I or the kids get symptoms, she'll be put up in a hotel and isolated from us so that she can continue to work.  

[Dave85radiohead]

4 minutes ago, ogriff said:

My mrs is paid to be an oncology registrar.  I'm not sure that not treating cancer patients because large parts of the hospital are being given over to palliate those that under ordinary circumstances wouldn't die, but due to the need to prioritise coronavirus/ a lack of ICU beds, will be kept as comfortable as possible but ultimately they won't have resources to treat, is part of her JD.  It's not even really kicked off yet where we are, and she's both exhausted and terrified. 

As a civil servant, I'm currently being paid to not do my job, so that I can look after the kids allowing a doctor to be at work.  Which is weird.

If I or the kids get symptoms, she'll be put up in a hotel and isolated from us so that she can continue to work.  

In a very similar position. My wife is a nuclear medicine doctor and I have lots of friends who work in medicine, mainly in radiology. It's a very scary time and the attitude towards the NHS from the general public is just shocking .

One of our friends has just been kicked out of his apartment  because the landlord is worried about him spreading the disease with him been a doctor. He's currently staying on a friend's couch ☹️

I hope you and your family keep safe 

[Quark]

8 minutes ago, Dave85radiohead said:

In a very similar position. My wife is a nuclear medicine doctor and I have lots of friends who work in medicine, mainly in radiology. It's a very scary time and the attitude towards the NHS from the general public is just shocking .

One of our friends has just been kicked out of his apartment  because the landlord is worried about him spreading the disease with him been a doctor. He's currently staying on a friend's couch ☹️

I hope you and your family keep safe 

Christ on a bike, I saw (I assume) that story on BBC News site this morning. Or is that now becoming a more common thing?

I don't have the words for people like those landlords, or indeed in a positive sense for anyone like you and yours who are in the NHS.

[fred quimby]

13 minutes ago, Dave85radiohead said:

 

One of our friends has just been kicked out of his apartment  because the landlord is worried about him spreading the disease with him been a doctor. He's currently staying on a friend's couch ☹️

I hope you and your family keep safe 

Wow just Wow. What the fuck are some people like. Unbelievable. Hope the Landlords are named and shamed, although not sure what good that will do

[Ted Dansons Wig]