Update from the festival...

[ModernMan]

1 hour ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Agree with all that. Historically most viruses like this haven’t gone on with such an impact for more than a year. Even Spanish flu as deadly as it was lasted about a year.

On a slightly related note a couple of weeks ago my ex told me her and her mum had completely lost their sense of taste and smell, absolutely nothing. Weird we thought. It now turns out this is one of the symptoms or bi products of Corona. So she probably had it and gave it to tons of people and most of them probably didn’t realise. She didn’t have any other symptoms, just that.

The point I’m making is although it’s obviously serious and killing people, I think a lot of people have had it without ever knowing, so in theory things will get worse in the near future but should rapidly improve before long.

I sincerely hope you’re right. Some of the things coming out from NHS workers even now are terrifying. It’s put me in a real dark mood tonight, I’m scared for everyone and where we will be in weeks to come. 
 

I went out for a jog this morning, and there were many people just going about daily business as usual 😣

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

34 minutes ago, ModernMan said:

I sincerely hope you’re right. Some of the things coming out from NHS workers even now are terrifying. It’s put me in a real dark mood tonight, I’m scared for everyone and where we will be in weeks to come. 
 

I went out for a jog this morning, and there were many people just going about daily business as usual 😣

They will be horrible in the short to medium term, but I genuinely think a significant amount of people have had it without realising. More than likely myself based on being in contact with several people who in hindsight have almost certainly had it. This will make it bad in the short term because it’s spreading quicker then we think and getting to the vulnerable people more quickly, but it would mean we'll be out the other side much quicker.

Edited March 21, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[themuel]

3 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

On a slightly related note a couple of weeks ago my ex told me her and her mum had completely lost their sense of taste and smell, absolutely nothing. Weird we thought. It now turns out this is one of the symptoms or bi products of Corona. So she probably had it and gave it to tons of people and most of them probably didn’t realise. She didn’t have any other symptoms, just that.

I’m exactly the same. Had a cold just before it all went mental, shortly afterwards (and with no other symptoms) I lost all taste and smell. Now realising I probably had it and am racked with guilt about having probably passed it on to others. 

Self-isolation would end tomorrow if I had been doing it so I’m past contagious.  I just feel terrible on an emotional level. Thankfully I’ve been socially distancing. 

[whitehorses]

11 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

They will be horrible in the short to medium term, but I genuinely think a significant amount of people have had it without realising. More than likely myself based on being in contact with several people who in hindsight have almost certainly had it. This will make it bad in the short term because it’s spreading quicker then we think and getting to the vulnerable people more quickly, but it would mean we'll be out the other side much quicker.

Not sure how much I buy the ‘loads of us have had it already’ line of thinking. The infection mathematics wouldn’t seem to suggest we have. It does seem like lots of us will get it in the next few months... 

Hope they develop an antibody test so we’ll know for sure 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

25 minutes ago, whitehorses said:

Not sure how much I buy the ‘loads of us have had it already’ line of thinking. The infection mathematics wouldn’t seem to suggest we have. It does seem like lots of us will get it in the next few months... 

Hope they develop an antibody test so we’ll know for sure 

Surely if it’s R0 is above 2.5 and around 93% of people have little to no symptoms, then how is it even possible for loads of us not to have had it?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

10 hours ago, themuel said:

I’m exactly the same. Had a cold just before it all went mental, shortly afterwards (and with no other symptoms) I lost all taste and smell. Now realising I probably had it and am racked with guilt about having probably passed it on to others. 

Self-isolation would end tomorrow if I had been doing it so I’m past contagious.  I just feel terrible on an emotional level. Thankfully I’ve been socially distancing. 

I wouldn’t feel guilty, my ex is the same but our government played it down until Monday anyway. It’s a a new virus with loads of symptoms, mild symptoms or no symptoms. Unless anybody has been in close contact with someone they know has definitely had it then it not a lot you can do.

[Zoo Music Girl]

I sincerely hope we are not following Italy's trajectory, but I fear we might be The news from there is horrendous.

[Red Day]

18 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

I sincerely hope we are not following Italy's trajectory, but I fear we might be The news from there is horrendous.

Watching the reports from Italy is harrowing.

[whitehorses]

51 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Surely if it’s R0 is above 2.5 and around 93% of people have little to no symptoms, then how is it even possible for loads of us not to have had it?

Can you source 93% have little to no symptoms? Haven’t seen that figure before. I thought 20% became seriously ill, with a chunk of that needing hospitalisation. 

[TheFullShaboo]

On 3/20/2020 at 4:20 PM, Avalon_Fields said:

Don't panic...and even if you don't get one, as long as the booking is on Seetickets order tracker then you're perfectly fine.

It’s okay, that email for the ticket I’d definitely bought came through in the end. 

Its incredible how anything Glastonbury related gets me going, It’s certainly going to be a long 15 months, glad I’ve got this site to reassure my excitement is perfect normal and justified throughout the year. 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

15 minutes ago, whitehorses said:

Can you source 93% have little to no symptoms? Haven’t seen that figure before. I thought 20% became seriously ill, with a chunk of that needing hospitalisation. 

I think we’ve only got to look at Germany as a guide to how many more people actually have it, the figures speak for themselves:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/c0755b30-69bb-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

[whitehorses]

@Deaf Nobby Burtoncan you explain what you mean? To me the 22,000 German Cases shows they’ve been testing way more. It doesn’t tell me ‘loads of us have had it’. It we multiply the death rates out that would put us at 66,000 cases (rather than the ludicrous 5,000 stated)

Edited March 22, 2020 by whitehorses

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

13 minutes ago, whitehorses said:

@Deaf Nobby Burtoncan you explain what you mean? To me the 22,000 German Cases shows they’ve been testing way more. It doesn’t tell me ‘loads of us have had it’. It we multiply the death rates out that would put us at 66,000 cases (rather than the ludicrous 5,000 stated)

I can’t for some reason find the article that stated up to 93% of cases have mild or no symptoms, this article is quite interesting though and states 70% of those tested had no symptoms:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/eradicated-coronavirus-mass-testing-covid-19-italy-vo
 

Is what you’re saying not what I’m saying though? We obviously have a lot more cases that just haven’t been tested, a lot of those will be because they never had symptoms?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

23 minutes ago, whitehorses said:

@Deaf Nobby Burtoncan you explain what you mean? To me the 22,000 German Cases shows they’ve been testing way more. It doesn’t tell me ‘loads of us have had it’. It we multiply the death rates out that would put us at 66,000 cases (rather than the ludicrous 5,000 stated)

Ok not necessarily the best source in the mirror and 91% not 93%
 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-sufferers-say-cant-smell-21729211.amp

[whitehorses]

10 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I can’t for some reason find the article that stated up to 93% of cases have mild or no symptoms, this article is quite interesting though and states 70% of those tested had no symptoms:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/eradicated-coronavirus-mass-testing-covid-19-italy-vo
 

Is what you’re saying not what I’m saying though? We obviously have a lot more cases that just haven’t been tested, a lot of those will be because they never had symptoms?

Thanks! Yeah I totally agree with you that many many more people have had it than we know about. And clearly 5k is a nonsense.

What i think we disagree without knowing we disagree is what that fraction of the population actually looks like. I’d suggest we are <1% infected of our 66,000,000. I think I might agree with the ‘loads of us have had it unknowingly’ at about 10% of population. But a bit subjective I suppose. 

[Sawdusty surfer]

Obviously The Official Annual Gathering organised by The Northern Transvestite Society at Block 9 has had to be cancelled.

If you want to get in touch with them they have a Wigan address.

Edited March 22, 2020 by Sawdusty Surfer

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

3 minutes ago, whitehorses said:

Thanks! Yeah I totally agree with you that many many more people have had it than we know about. And clearly 5k is a nonsense.

What i think we disagree without knowing we disagree is what that fraction of the population actually looks like. I’d suggest we are <1% infected of our 66,000,000. I think I might agree with the ‘loads of us have had it unknowingly’ at about 10% of population. But a bit subjective I suppose. 

I’d definitely agree with you there, because if we apply Germany’s mortality rate to ours seeing as they have tested the most then we may have around 60-70k cases, so a lot less than 1% of the population. Extrapolate that up based on 60% of the country getting it and that would still work out at 140k deaths 😞 I guess my hope is that the more extreme stats about it being symptomless or mild in a lot more people are true, so that the death rate is a lot lower and it passes through a lot quicker.