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Glastonbury 2020 Cancelled - I am sorry to be the bearer of this news.


StoneCircle
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23 minutes ago, Cooter said:

Hopefully this time next year it'll be long gone but I also have my doubts.

unfortunately, if the NHS ran at full ramped-up capacity (about 15,000 critical care beds) treating the hospitalised, only around 45% of the population could have had the virus and acquired immunity by this time next year. :(

For comparison, Germany (with a slightly bigger population) has 25,000 critical care beds as standard, and can (and is) ramp-up to 50,000.

And when the UK did a pandemic simulation in 2016 and discovered it needed to have many more respirators in reserve.... it did absolutely fuck all. 😠 

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5 hours ago, Earth_pig said:

why is it you think that about Glasto 2021?

 

48 minutes ago, Cooter said:

Not sure about glasto-workers views but we are n the very early stages of this thing and nobody knows where it's going to take us. Hopefully this time next year it'll be long gone but I also have my doubts. Everyday life may become easier but with no vaccine on the horizon the risk factors may still be there regarding self distancing and crowds.

edit, sorry! 

I am a retired University of London lecturer and for some period of time I used to teach statistician's who were doing their PhD's and many were using Predictive analytics so I know how crucial it is to input all the correct data and as far as I can see no one in the UK has the correct data so any predictions are bound to be flawed - everyone should keep in their head GIGO {garbage in, garbage out}

 I hope I am wrong but we may find that in 12 months time 'we may still be in uncharted waters'

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I Too have doubts over 2021. Can’t see this being resolved anytime soon and would the festival really commit to another round of ticket sales, booking acts and everything else which must come at a cost  until they could be pretty confident the event could run next year. I certainly don’t think we’ll have that level of assurance by October for the normal ticket selling window. 
Also surely insurance that any of the companies involved in putting the festival together take out will now likely exclude pandemic/Coronavirus events - until suitable insurance was available could they even contemplate the event going ahead. I dunno. 

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43 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

unfortunately, if the NHS ran at full ramped-up capacity (about 15,000 critical care beds) treating the hospitalised, only around 45% of the population could have had the virus and acquired immunity by this time next year. :(

For comparison, Germany (with a slightly bigger population) has 25,000 critical care beds as standard, and can (and is) ramp-up to 50,000.

And when the UK did a pandemic simulation in 2016 and discovered it needed to have many more respirators in reserve.... it did absolutely fuck all. 😠 

Whats the assumption on % of cases needing to be hospitalised/ length of stay here? 

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2 minutes ago, wilby-wilbert said:

Whats the assumption on % of cases needing to be hospitalised/ length of stay here? 

it's my own dodgy calc that I did in my head a few days ago.

If I remember rightly I worked it from hospitalisation as 14 days for 5% of cases needing critical care (which is a best-case guess - I'm not claiming huge accuracy).
 

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Genuinely quite scary how many people in their 30s, 40s and 50s who are ending up in intensive care from this virus. 

This is absolutely awful. 

There are so many young people I know who are not taking this seriously. Please be careful guys. This is clearly not "just like the flu" as I keep hearing. 

 

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8 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

it's my own dodgy calc that I did in my head a few days ago.

If I remember rightly I worked it from hospitalisation as 14 days for 5% of cases needing critical care (which is a best-case guess - I'm not claiming huge accuracy).
 

Thanks, I wasnt doubting the accuracy of your numbers, just wanting to get an idea of where they came from.

The unsettling thing about all of the modelling is that so much of this is based on very limited data and with so mamy variables at play and thus a serious degree of uncertainty. 

So we could be looking at infection rates of anywhere between say 20 and 80%, mortality rates (direct from the disease) of anywhere from below 0.5% to 5 or 6 times that, then shortages of ventilators, beds etc will have a massive effect and there will be all the deaths by other causes that wouldnt have happened were it not for the strain on the health system. 

It seem that in order to act rationally from the perspective of society as a whole, many will have to vastly over react from a strictly individual perspective. 

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1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

unfortunately, if the NHS ran at full ramped-up capacity (about 15,000 critical care beds) treating the hospitalised, only around 45% of the population could have had the virus and acquired immunity by this time next year. :(

For comparison, Germany (with a slightly bigger population) has 25,000 critical care beds as standard, and can (and is) ramp-up to 50,000.

And when the UK did a pandemic simulation in 2016 and discovered it needed to have many more respirators in reserve.... it did absolutely fuck all. 😠 

Hopefully it can be wartime production on the ventilators, spaces and getting people trained up to use them in the coming months to get our capacity up. Or will that be too expensive for them...

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1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Fingers crossed

 

 

Wonder how widespread they could use it though? Mentioned here before, a few weeks ago I had an awful flu, main symptoms being horrid fever and cough, as well as some shortness of breath at points. Morbid curiosity has me wondering if it could have been, but probably not all that useful in grand scheme of things to find out really

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12 minutes ago, thrillhouse188 said:

Wonder how widespread they could use it though? Mentioned here before, a few weeks ago I had an awful flu, main symptoms being horrid fever and cough, as well as some shortness of breath at points. Morbid curiosity has me wondering if it could have been, but probably not all that useful in grand scheme of things to find out really

It would be hugely useful for them to know if health workers etc had had it, so they could safely return to work. Whether they would make it that widespread for the rest of us, who knows? Surely a cost implication...

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2 hours ago, Henrik said:

Genuinely quite scary how many people in their 30s, 40s and 50s who are ending up in intensive care from this virus. 

This is absolutely awful. 

There are so many young people I know who are not taking this seriously. Please be careful guys. This is clearly not "just like the flu" as I keep hearing. 

 

We got our first breakdown of infection demographics in Ireland yesterday. Over half of cases in the 20-40 age bracket. Frontline healthcare staff the other big group (22%). 

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On 3/17/2020 at 4:52 PM, StoneCircle said:

I am so sorry to announce this, the festival is cancelled. Source, one of Michaels daughters who is a friend of mine.

With everything that is going on, the pressure on our public services, workers and the vulnerable people in our society, it is hard to know how upset you're allowed to be in this situation. A glimpse at the news agenda at the moment offers plenty of perspective.

From a personal standpoint, I find social interaction and events to be a central part of managing my own mental health, so to have so many major dates gutted from the calendar is hard to accept.

I'm sure like many others, I am just trying to see the other side of things, looking forward to when a degree of normality returns to our society. Of course, things are likely to get worse before they get better but I take great comfort from the idea of a light being at the end of the tunnel.

Goodness knows if any of the above makes any sense.

Roll on 2021.

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34 minutes ago, thrillhouse188 said:

Wonder how widespread they could use it though? Mentioned here before, a few weeks ago I had an awful flu, main symptoms being horrid fever and cough, as well as some shortness of breath at points. Morbid curiosity has me wondering if it could have been, but probably not all that useful in grand scheme of things to find out really

Hopefully very widespread (not immediate obviously) but it could help return some of society to normal.

Conspiracy theorists will have a field day with this one - the "mark" is a popular theory, presumably those who have "failed" will have some kind of papers or even a physical mark

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19 minutes ago, zahidf said:

It seems like japan have kept infections to 900 and are running events with audiences again

 

Hope that ends up being the right play and not jumping the gun.

Also, if you're in to pro graps, DDT is well worth a watch.

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23 hours ago, dotdash79 said:

Lineup last Thursday, Interview went well on Frida, was asked about notice period and salary exceptions on Monday. Life was ok.

Tuesday new job role on hold, current role made redundant (offered different role lucky for me) and my boss made redundant, big G cancelled today, almost sent me under.

Can't believe it's only Wednesday.

Take care people.

Update they offered the role, will need to start in July, but everyone hang in things will get better.

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Just now, dotdash79 said:

Thanks

Hope you can get sorted, and aren't too badly affected by this. Retails workers are under so much pressure at the moment and some of the people that they have to deal with are dicks.

im ok fortunate that Im not public facing at the moment  ... im hiding out the back as im social distancing ... not sure how well but im trying to help morale for some of the online pickers ( for the first time since diagnosis  life type 1 diabetes is worrying me ) but I also dont have some of the worries of others at the moment so im dealing ok with it .... it brings out extremes in peoples natures sometimes not rational ones with worry ...

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26 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

im ok fortunate that Im not public facing at the moment  ... im hiding out the back as im social distancing ... not sure how well but im trying to help morale for some of the online pickers ( for the first time since diagnosis  life type 1 diabetes is worrying me ) but I also dont have some of the worries of others at the moment so im dealing ok with it .... it brings out extremes in peoples natures sometimes not rational ones with worry ...

it's not great out there but I'm hope people will settle down in the next few days as this becomes the new normal.

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