Will coronavirus lead to the cancellation of Glastonbury ?

[Spindles]

10 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Apparently the COP climate thing on verge of getting cancelled. At least there are no planes flying anymore.

There was visible improvement in pollution in China, this now being a worldwide event it will undoubtedly do the same.  At the moment supply chains haven't ground to a halt, transport hasn't been prioritised for certain industries, factories haven't closed.  The upshot of the disruption from this is that they will, later in the timeline.  We'll be buying the world a bit of a breather with this as industrial society takes a few months of short time and it will take a while after the disease has subsided before things are back to normal.

 

Latest panic buy item in my town is fags apparently, all supermarkets are completely sold out.

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Spindles said:

There was visible improvement in pollution in China, this now being a worldwide event it will undoubtedly do the same.  At the moment supply chains haven't ground to a halt, transport hasn't been prioritised for certain industries, factories haven't closed.  The upshot of the disruption from this is that they will, later in the timeline.  We'll be buying the world a bit of a breather with this as industrial society takes a few months of short time and it will take a while after the disease has subsided before things are back to normal.

 

Latest panic buy item in my town is fags apparently, all supermarkets are completely sold out.

People are stocking up on guns and ammunition in US.

[steviewevie]

I wonder if people will follow the advice, or will the pubs still be busy on the weekend.?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

5 minutes ago, Garrett_Salas said:

Yeh, unfortunately you're wrong here. The report itself says that the models were incorrect. This isn't journalistic license - you can read the report yourself (not long read).

 

Embarrassing as it is (and probably cost lives) at least we're now clearer.

Yes I’ve just read through it and it was not good reading.

I noticed this line “We do not consider the ethical or economic implications of either strategy here”

So it seems like from what the government has said and reading through that report we will actually end up with a bit of a mix of both strategies?

[Brave Sir Robin]

8 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Maybe naïve, but I reckon the government will order the closure of the pubs etc within the next week.

Agreed. Today’s message leads to everyone screaming “just close everything”, and soon enough they will. I’m convinced they’d have ordered it today but for it looking too dramatic a u-turn (that Buzzfeed article/Imperial paper explains just why they’ve performed one.)

Hopefully that will avoid the worst of the damage to the hospitality industry that today’s approach would cause, if maintained for any length of time.

[Homer]

10 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

So in a shock U turn my company has said that the office is open as usual and all employees should continue to work in the office as usual.

We all have laptops and work from home at least one day a week. No idea what they are playing at.

basically ignoring government advice 

I am in exactly the same position. Not good is it? Are you going in?

My wife also insisting she's going to the gym tomorrow for some reason.

[Lycra]

As a Dr (not front line) I am happy government have made this call. Yes it will be an inconvenience to our lives, but it may (🤞) save countless lives. Government are in a no win situation. Get it wrong and they've not done enough to protect the population. Get it right and they've been too draconian. 

Now news from the front line....Nurse Lycra reports still reports no confirmed Covid-19's, 1 highly suspected, remainder tested negative. 

[Lycra]

And so long as there's no panic buying of beer, cider & wine, we can cope 😁

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, Homer said:

I am in exactly the same position. Not good is it? Are you going in?

My wife also insisting she's going to the gym tomorrow for some reason.

Your wife is fucking mental. Can't she just go for a run, or do some weights at home? There's no way I would go near one of those places where people secrete all over the machines for minutes at a time with air conditioning getting the droplets all nice and mixed up.

[Brownie30]

Those Buzzfeed quotes earlier actually were from an extremely reliable source - a report published today by scientists at Imperial College London, in accordance with the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development. If anyone fancies a read it can be found here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

But the most sobering takeaways are that a) Mitigation (the policy framework that the government initially seemed to want to follow) could mean that "even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US". 

And b) "We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression (major cancellations across the board and dramatic social distancing etc) is the only viable strategy at the current time. The social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently. "

So it is true that the Government tact was changed on the advice that their policies were wrong and risking many lives - just because the journalist on Twitter was from Buzzfeed doesn't make this any less true, or indeed any less sobering or concerning.

[Slugworth]

14 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

People are stocking up on guns and ammunition in US.

End of the fed reserve?

[efcfanwirral]

4 minutes ago, Brownie30 said:

Those Buzzfeed quotes earlier actually were from an extremely reliable source - a report published today by scientists at Imperial College London, in accordance with the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development. If anyone fancies a read it can be found here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

But the most sobering takeaways are that a) Mitigation (the policy framework that the government initially seemed to want to follow) could mean that "even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US". 

And b) "We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression (major cancellations across the board and dramatic social distancing etc) is the only viable strategy at the current time. The social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently. "

So it is true that the Government tact was changed on the advice that their policies were wrong and risking many lives - just because the journalist on Twitter was from Buzzfeed doesn't make this any less true, or indeed any less sobering or concerning.

Or infuriating - plenty of non scientists saying this all week based on simple numbers, and the fact that they discussed "slowing it down" without changing anything. 

At least they've worked it out now not in 2 weeks....

[Queen_of_rabbits]

Given that the Imperial College have concluded mitigation is not an appropriate solution, but rather suppression (which could and will likely last into summer next year - given the time required to make an effective and mass producible cure, I think a genuine question isn't whether or not Glasto will continue this year but rather will there be one next year even? (If it wasn't already a fallow year).

On a purely pragmatic grounds, the solution to the virus and the nature of the virus itself means the arse is going to fall out the music industry.

See you guys in 2022, I guess.

[robu]

39 minutes ago, Peter North said:

They have completely changed tack. With the added bonus of almost entirely screwing the hospitality industry. 

Johnson hanging the hospitality industry out to dry surely had nothing to do with his top-billing speech to the British Insurance Brokers’ Association 2019 conference? https://www.biba.org.uk/latest-news/boris-johnson-to-lead-the-way-at-biba-2019/

[Splatt]

The most sobering from the Imperial paper is that we may need to keep these measures in place indefinitely possibly 18 months plus. I think my fears of 2021 at risk might have more foundation. 

Edited March 16, 2020 by Splatt

[Honeybane]

I can’t believe how fucked up this whole thing is, it’s insane

[Babylon sister]

Boris is protecting aaron banks companies and  all other insurance companies at the expense of everyone else. Get him out. 

Edited March 16, 2020 by Babylon sister
Repeat

[Homer]

9 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Your wife is fucking mental. Can't she just go for a run, or do some weights at home? There's no way I would go near one of those places where people secrete all over the machines for minutes at a time with air conditioning getting the droplets all nice and mixed up.

Just spoke to her about it twice. She's now said she'll go and get weighed etc (she's been doing a programme that she is going to have to abandon) and not do any exercise. She's getting a lift too. No public transport.

Not sure I should be going to work, but no choice I guess.

[Toilet Duck]

39 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

That’s a different issue. I was quoting the person referring to a buzzfeed article which is complete and utter rubbish. The article suggest they got their modelling wrong and are only acting now out of panic.

They’ve constantly told us these measures have been coming when the times right. They haven’t changed tack as far as their plan is concerned at all.

I think they did a bad job of communicating their strategy. Everyone focused on the “herd immunity” part as it appeared the plan was to get large swathes of the low risk population infected ASAP. Germany have done a better job of explaining this (herd immunity within 5 years with infections even after a vaccine is developed and mass vaccination occurs). They are working on the same principle that controlling the rate of infection will help control hospital admissions and reduce the mortality rate (currently about 0.3% in Germany...and no, they don’t classify Coronavirus deaths any differently). They too have taken their time introducing restrictions, so the timetable the government in the UK is following is actually correct. The main mistake they made was changing testing criteria as knowing who is infected and where is crucial to executing this (local measures can be out in place in hotspots, for example, London appears to be at a different phase to other parts of the UK). Germany have been good at testing from the off (and have described patients testing positive who never develop any symptoms at all). So, increasing testing in the UK again seems like a good idea and will allow more nuanced management. I just think they could have explained this a lot better...Weirdly I’m more positive about things today! 

[sime]

53 minutes ago, Andy0808 v5 said:

I reckon The Winchester will survive.

I dunno. It once got overrun by Zombies. So personally I wouldn't use it as a place of refuge 🙃

Edited March 16, 2020 by sime

[StoneCircle]

1 hour ago, kalifire said:

Currently in the “could go either way” camp, same as last time. 

Its important to remember that nothing that’s been announced so far hasn’t been expected. Some people are reacting to announcements like they can’t have been planned for, but the poster and statement of intent arrived after the WHO declared a pandemic, and Emily has previously said they have a plan of action for that. 

It’s over three months away. There’s still time to wait for signs that these measures may be working. Still time for the government to update their strategy. Still time before the build starts. 

I know it doesn’t look likely. But I’m not prepared to write it off. If it does happen, it’ll be like no other Glastonbury before it. 

No idea why you were downvoted for this by @Benja100 but have an upvote to cancel it!

Edited March 16, 2020 by StoneCircle

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

8 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

I think they did a bad job of communicating their strategy. Everyone focused on the “herd immunity” part as it appeared the plan was to get large swathes of the low risk population infected ASAP. Germany have done a better job of explaining this (herd immunity within 5 years with infections even after a vaccine is developed and mass vaccination occurs). They are working on the same principle that controlling the rate of infection will help control hospital admissions and reduce the mortality rate (currently about 0.3% in Germany...and no, they don’t classify Coronavirus deaths any differently). They too have taken their time introducing restrictions, so the timetable the government in the UK is following is actually correct. The main mistake they made was changing testing criteria as knowing who is infected and where is crucial to executing this (local measures can be out in place in hotspots, for example, London appears to be at a different phase to other parts of the UK). Germany have been good at testing from the off (and have described patients testing positive who never develop any symptoms at all). So, increasing testing in the UK again seems like a good idea and will allow more nuanced management. I just think they could have explained this a lot better...Weirdly I’m more positive about things today! 

That’s something for me to cling on to, I have been up to now.

I seem to remember you’ve got a relevant background, have you read that imperial college report?

[ivan]

19 minutes ago, Babylon sister said:

Boris is protecting aaron banks companies and  all other insurance companies at the expense of everyone else. Get him out. 

Utter rubbish , would you care to explain your thoughts behind that ?

 

[kalifire]

8 minutes ago, StoneCircle said:

No idea why you were downvoted for this by @Benja100 but have an upvote to cancel it!

Heh, cheers.

I don't begrudge @Benja100 the sense of wanting to downvote things s/he doesn't agree with. It's a chaotic, scary time and we want to feel right about the things we've decided are true, never more so than with something we all attach a lot of value to, like Glastonbury. So when somebody comes along and flies in the face of your chosen narrative, it can be affronting and people react in different ways.

It's all good.

Edited March 17, 2020 by kalifire

[Babylon sister]

1 minute ago, ivan said:

Utter rubbish , would you care to explain your thoughts behind that 

Its not decisive enough where hospitality, events etc are concerned and that will impact on the ability to make  claims.