Will Coronavirus lead to the cancellation of Glastonbury?

[charlierc]

49 minutes ago, Rumblestripe said:

I think that epidemics/pandemics tend to follow a "bell curve" where infections will rise, peak and then fall away. I believe that it will have peaked well before 24th June. Warm weather kiils viruses (UV light) so outdoor gatherings are less of a risk anyway. I'm calling "GO!"

I've caught flu viruses in summer before, so I'm not sure it will automatically stop being a thing just because the temperature is rising - an idea I'm aware that Trump has been keen to preach in his attempts to stop the bottom falling out of the US stock market. But I'm aware there is such precedent.

I dunno. I still think its likelier than not, but I'm aware an escalation is a real concern. Italy basically closing down is a bad omen.

Closed door Glastonbury anyone?

[Rumblestripe]

14 minutes ago, charlierc said:

I've caught flu viruses in summer before, so I'm not sure it will automatically stop being a thing just because the temperature is rising - an idea I'm aware that Trump has been keen to preach

Believe it or not, Trump actually has science on his side in this instance! You are less likely to catch a virus in the summer than the winter, that is a fact and COVID-19 is no different in the way it spreads to the common cold or influenza. It doesn't mean you can't catch cold/flu in the summer of course you can just that it is less likely which would lower the rate of spread. Similarly a cold day in June doesn't disprove Climate Change.

[Pinhead]

Except its done pretty well at spreading in hot countries as well...

[Rumblestripe]

1 minute ago, Pinhead said:

Except its done pretty well at spreading in hot countries as well...

Wuhan is pretty similar in temperatures to the UK. India has had a markedly low rate of spread.

[Spindles]

Yeah, average daily temperature in Iran during its spread is 12c, Wuhan closer to a UK style winter with it's climate, single figures for most of the outbreak period.  I think we need to see how nations closer to the equator are affected to make any kind of informed comment on whether warmer temperatures reduce the impact.

[assorted]

One of the few reasonable coronavirus articles out there. I’m putting this here because this feels like the more level headed thread than “the other thread.”

https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.amp?__twitter_impression=true

Short summary - the fatality rate is likely much, much lower than current reports. Near zero threat to healthy adults. All this panic is taking away from the people who need care and support and precautions during this - the elderly and nursing homes. 

[Pinhead]

1 hour ago, Rumblestripe said:

Wuhan is pretty similar in temperatures to the UK. India has had a markedly low rate of spread.

And Iran?

[stuartbert two hats]

5 minutes ago, Pinhead said:

And Iran?

 

39 minutes ago, Spindles said:

Yeah, average daily temperature in Iran during its spread is 12c, Wuhan closer to a UK style winter with it's climate, single figures for most of the outbreak period.  I think we need to see how nations closer to the equator are affected to make any kind of informed comment on whether warmer temperatures reduce the impact.

 

[Bryanrebe]

41 minutes ago, Spindles said:

Yeah, average daily temperature in Iran during its spread is 12c, Wuhan closer to a UK style winter with it's climate, single figures for most of the outbreak period.  I think we need to see how nations closer to the equator are affected to make any kind of informed comment on whether warmer temperatures reduce the impact.

Or, you know, the whole of the Southern Hemisphere where it is currently summer...

[Spindles]

Yeah, there is that, sorry.  I keep forgetting that you folks are down there.  Typical eurocentric attitude I'm afraid.

[Bryanrebe]

3 hours ago, Spindles said:

Yeah, there is that, sorry.  I keep forgetting that you folks are down there.  Typical eurocentric attitude I'm afraid.

To be fair, this is what's happening down here.

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/semi-trailer-carrying-load-of-toilet-paper-catches-fire-on-gateway-bridge-20200305-p5470e.html

Edited March 5, 2020 by Bryanrebe

[Spindles]

It seems that most of our antipodean cousins' problems are toilet paper related.  Funny old world.

[Reckoner]

Don't get too cocky, your toilet paper panic buying time will come as it already has in Hong Kong, Singapore and now Australia. It's the same irrational moves from country to country as the cases rise. 

[squirrelarmy]

9 hours ago, assorted said:

The other coronavirus thread on this forum is pure toxic negativity and hysteria by a few users intent on wallowing in it. 

I do worry a giant, media-led social panic can cancel the festival prematurely which is why that thread gets on my nerves... 

Personally I think anyone who is thinking that the festival should be cancelled due to Corona fears should return their ticket and let someone willing to take the risk have their place. 
 

By June this virus will be everywhere and containment won’t be possible and cancelling events won’t make a slightest bit of difference. 
 

If you haven’t caught it by Glastonbury there’s a high chance you’ll pick it up there or on the way there. 
 

So if you’re scared of Corona avoid Glastonbury but don’t ruin it for the rest of us! 

[Cooter]

Well said.

[yehbutnobut]

3 hours ago, Gregfc15 said:

Don't get too cocky, your toilet paper panic buying time will come as it already has in Hong Kong, Singapore and now Australia. It's the same irrational moves from country to country as the cases rise. 

Oh it's already started. I live the the only Devon area that's had confirmed cases of the virus... and there was no bog roll available in Sainsbury's yesterday (which I wasnt there to buy). Absolute madness.

[Zoo Music Girl]

2 hours ago, squirrelarmy said:

Personally I think anyone who is thinking that the festival should be cancelled due to Corona fears should return their ticket and let someone willing to take the risk have their place. 
 

By June this virus will be everywhere and containment won’t be possible and cancelling events won’t make a slightest bit of difference. 
 

If you haven’t caught it by Glastonbury there’s a high chance you’ll pick it up there or on the way there. 
 

So if you’re scared of Corona avoid Glastonbury but don’t ruin it for the rest of us! 

To be fair there are very few people saying they want it to be cancelled, just that they fear it might be. I actually think it will more likely go ahead but I don't know how people can have that level of certainty right now. As others have said there are logistical and political reasons beyond just people catching it.

Having said that, as someone without a ticket, yeah give those bad boys up!

Edited March 5, 2020 by Zoo Music Girl

[Matt42]

2 hours ago, squirrelarmy said:

Personally I think anyone who is thinking that the festival should be cancelled due to Corona fears should return their ticket and let someone willing to take the risk have their place. 
 

By June this virus will be everywhere and containment won’t be possible and cancelling events won’t make a slightest bit of difference. 
 

If you haven’t caught it by Glastonbury there’s a high chance you’ll pick it up there or on the way there. 
 

So if you’re scared of Corona avoid Glastonbury but don’t ruin it for the rest of us! 

Public fear and government order are two different things. No one wants this to be cancelled they just feel it will be.

I’m optimistic, I think we are all approaching a stage of acceptance with this virus that we will all probably get it in some shape or form. Hopefully lots of people won’t even notice they had it.

[Pinhead]

10 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

 

 

Ah, so fairly cool then atm. Mind you Adelaide is around 25C on average atm and has 53 cases. Not relying on the summer to reduce infections... Seems to be more about humidity.

[northernringo]

I wouldn't be changing my vote yet (I think it will go ahead)

[Mr.Tease]

3 hours ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

To be fair there are very few people saying they want it to be cancelled, just that they fear it might be. I actually think it will more likely go ahead but I don't know how people can have that level of certainty right now. As others have said there are logistical and political reasons beyond just people catching it.

Having said that, as someone without a ticket, yeah give those bad boys up!

As a fellow ticket-less fiend, imagine the roller-coaster of failing on ticket day, then getting one in the resale due to large numbers of people deciding not to pay the deposit due to virus fears, only for it to be cancelled a few weeks later 😧

[Zoo Music Girl]

37 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

As a fellow ticket-less fiend, imagine the roller-coaster of failing on ticket day, then getting one in the resale due to large numbers of people deciding not to pay the deposit due to virus fears, only for it to be cancelled a few weeks later 😧

Ha yeah I don't think my nerves could take it! 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

6 hours ago, squirrelarmy said:

Personally I think anyone who is thinking that the festival should be cancelled due to Corona fears should return their ticket and let someone willing to take the risk have their place. 
 

By June this virus will be everywhere and containment won’t be possible and cancelling events won’t make a slightest bit of difference. 
 

If you haven’t caught it by Glastonbury there’s a high chance you’ll pick it up there or on the way there. 
 

So if you’re scared of Corona avoid Glastonbury but don’t ruin it for the rest of us! 

I don’t think that’s the point though. I haven’t read a post from anyone one here suggesting they’re scared of catching it at Glastonbury, or indeed anywhere. The whole point is that people (on here) are worried the festival will be cancelled and with good reason. If the Government decide to cancel it there isn’t anything anybody can do about that. It doesn’t matter if it’s contained or rampant by June, they may just decide to cancel it to show they are doing something, however futile.

[MetaKate]

No one actually knows for sure why flu season is in the winter, but I will tell you this...  our body temperature at 37-38 degrees farenheit is the optimal temperature with which most viruses aggressively replicate. Warmer temperatures are not a factor in stopping the spread of the virus. 

Air humidity is definitely a contributing factor, as the denser the air is, the less likely the virus is to remain airborne. 

The virus in the air is more stable at cooler temperatures and more likely to survive longer without a host, which definitely contributes to surface spreading and airborne spreading in the winter. 

Honestly, I'm not worried about any spreading at Glastonbury. We are in an open field. Use soap primarily, hand sanitizer as a backup, and be cautious about touching the taps. If you are near a sneezer or cougher, move, as that is the most likely way to contract any virus.

Honestly the incubation rate can be pretty long (up to 14 days) so even if you contracted it at Glastonbury you probably wouldnt get sick until after the festival. Who knows if the virus could even survive that much alcohol (plus extras).

It's all gunna be okay.

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, MetaKate said:

Honestly, I'm not worried about any spreading at Glastonbury. We are in an open field. Use soap primarily, hand sanitizer as a backup, and be cautious about touching the taps. If you are near a sneezer or cougher, move, as that is the most likely way to contract any virus.

so thats the trick to getting to the barrier on the pyramid  ....