Will Coronavirus lead to the cancellation of Glastonbury?

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

Sensible move by Bearded Theory. Wonder if Glastonbury have a similar contingency?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

13 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Technically you are correct...but when folk dismiss it as a "heavy-flu", they are most likely thinking about seasonal flu and not a pandemic that killed 50-100m people at best estimates. If they are,  then it's an astounding level of complacency...

But in years to come it will likely be the same as flu, it’s new so we don’t have any immunity, but that was the case for the flu once. After a few waves of the virus it won’t be anymore dangerous than the flu.

[philipsteak]

Not sure Jan could handle this thread

 

 

[ModernMan]

6 minutes ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

Sensible move by Bearded Theory. Wonder if Glastonbury have a similar contingency?

Sorry must have missed this, what’s happened? 

[Mr.Tease]

29 minutes ago, northernringo said:

Today's update:

More of the same really with a few worrying countries but nothing massively out of the ordinary (except maybe Qatar).

China's cases dropped again, this time by 1,363 (14,959). Italy could realistically overtake China soon as the most infected country in the world which is pretty crazy. South Korea again showed signs of being in their peak period. They did see a rise but only of 16 (7,470). Recoveries still coming in in fairly low numbers so hopefully that begins to ramp up.

Elsewhere in East Asia, yesterday wasn't a disaster but was one of the more disappointing days. Increases in Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia. A slight drop of 2 though in Taiwan (28). Japan as expected continues to rise but at a fairly controlled rate, up 37 (505). In other news, a bulk announcement of recoveries was made from the Diamond Princess, (285 with 1 death) which leaves existing cases at 364.

In the Middle East, Qatar saw a massive jump after a few days of steady growth. Quite worrying, as they went from 24 to 262. Iran also increased by over 650 (5,687) and there were further less dramatic increases throughout the region. UAE did manage to drop its case numbers by 5 though (57). Iraq is also quite worrying, their high death rate might be an indication of a lot more cases than they are reporting.

In Europe, much of the growth was as expected. Italy had another massive jump,  up 1,796 cases (10,590). Other worrying jumps were again in Norway (up 228 to 628) and  Denmark (up 252 to 513). Sweden also with a large jump of 144 to 498. These countries are really struggling to get it under control. Germany and France up by around 500 each and Spain is up by just over 400. Spain announced quite a few recoveries which helped their figures a bit. All 3 are in and around 2,000 cases (France on 2,221). The UK as we know saw more growth but nothing too unexpected. Ireland saw an increase of 8 overall (and its first death).

Africa saw good news in a big reduction in Egypt, down 25 to 32. Elsewhere, growth was either non-existent or pretty small, two new countries in Ivory Coast (1) and DR Congo.

Still no recoveries in South America and general small increases again across the continent - no country has lost control of it yet based on their figures though. Guyana announced its first case and death so remains on 0. Further north, the disease has begun spreading around the islands a little more, with first cases in Jamaica and Cuba in the past couple of days. Mexico also saw a little increase of 5 (8).

In North America, USA saw another large jump, this time of 265 (1,266). They haven't announced a recovery in a while either. Further expected growth in Canada as it increased by 24 (108). India's cases are rising day by day and have now hit 68, Russia haven't announced a change in a few days though (17). New Zealand have also been on 5 for quite a few days which is encouraging and the jump in Australia was also nothing too surprising, cases rose by 21 (104).

Thanks for these. It'll be interesting to see what happens in China when they start easing off the lockdown- if the numbers start shooting up then I guess we'll know all you can do is pause it for the duration of a lockdown.

[maelzoid]

47 minutes ago, Breeze said:

... hopeful thinking is dangerous...

...hope for the best. 

Well done.

[BambooShanks]

2 minutes ago, gigpusher said:

Question are we just seeing more cases reported by countries that have better healthcare systems and social policies to support people if they are ill. 

I think America should be a bigger concern because people will have to pay to be tested and many states have no entitlement to sick pay so if self-isolating for 14 days could potentially see you broke then you are not going to do it.

It certainly appears that way.  The US has one of the lowest rates of testing per capita (5 tests per million people, compared to S. Korea who have 3,692 tests per million).  Once testing becomes more widespread, the numbers will explode.

In other news, I'm in the process of devising the action plan, business continuity plan and contingencies to put in place for work.  Being a care company the amount of staff I can have work from home is approximately 5 out of 180 - and even that is being very generous.  Combined with having quite a few residents who are in the at risk groups, some that lack the capacity to understand why they wouldn't be able to leave the service if a quarantine came into effect and some which don't have any legal framework in place that would allow us to prevent them from leaving (even if infected), I'm getting quite concerned as to how we are going to safely staff and support our residents.

Even if there isn't an outbreak in the services, the chances of it hitting staff members through preventative isolation is very high and we support some very challenging people so maintaining safe staffing levels is going to be a challenge.

 

 

 

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

4 minutes ago, ModernMan said:

Sorry must have missed this, what’s happened? 

https://standoutmagazine.co.uk/bearded-theory-reveals-coronavirus-contingency-plan/

[ModernMan]

1 minute ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

https://standoutmagazine.co.uk/bearded-theory-reveals-coronavirus-contingency-plan/

Interesting, thanks for that. Would be good if glasto did the same 

[eFestivals]

pretty standard statement from Focus Wales...

With 2 months until our event, at this time, all shows and events as part of FOCUS Wales 2020 are going ahead as planned. Please be assured that the safety and health of all staff and visitors is our main priority and we are implementing recommendations and instructions appropriately.

[Pinhead]

3 minutes ago, ModernMan said:

Interesting, thanks for that. Would be good if glasto did the same 

"Our own responsibility is to those that have afforded us their trust by purchasing tickets and their expectation that we will look after them to best of our ability. In line with this we have a contingency plan whereby we can postpone the festival if it were needed to a date in September, we have secured the venue, license, suppliers and the vast majority of the current line-up programme. This will be implemented if it was decided that mass gatherings would be cancelled and the advice from Government is that we would know this on or before April 1^st, 2020."

Very sensible and surprisingly flexible. Credit to the organisers again for putting together this plan when they must be busy enough this close to the festival date. Bold bit pertinent to Glasto I would think too.

Edited March 12, 2020 by Pinhead

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

2 minutes ago, Pinhead said:

"Our own responsibility is to those that have afforded us their trust by purchasing tickets and their expectation that we will look after them to best of our ability. In line with this we have a contingency plan whereby we can postpone the festival if it were needed to a date in September, we have secured the venue, license, suppliers and the vast majority of the current line-up programme. This will be implemented if it was decided that mass gatherings would be cancelled and the advice from Government is that we would know this on or before April 1^st, 2020."

Very sensible and surprisingly flexible. Credit to the organisers again for putting together this plan when they must be busy enough this close to the festival date. Bold bit pertinent to Glasto I would think too.

Very interesting, at least we have a date to work to now 

[Avalon_Fields]

24 minutes ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

Sensible move by Bearded Theory. Wonder if Glastonbury have a similar contingency?

That's cheered me up! BT here I come....hopefully

[Mr.Tease]

So even a complete blockade would only have slowed the virus by 1-2 months

[zahidf]

Phew

[zahidf]

Ha ha ha ha ha

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

2 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

So even a complete blockade would only have slowed the virus by 1-2 months

I guess once it’s in it’s in, people coming and going won’t make much of a difference. That would only be a benefit if you don’t have it already and want to try and stop it entering at all.

[Mr.Tease]

1 minute ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I guess once it’s in it’s in, people coming and going won’t make much of a difference. That would only be a benefit if you don’t have it already and want to try and stop it entering at all.

Yep, makes Trumps european flights ban even dafter (I could understand if it was all flights, but such a half-arsed measure at this stage of their outbreak isn't going to buy them much time at all.

[BambooShanks]

Just now, Mr.Tease said:

Yep, makes Trumps european flights ban even dafter (I could understand if it was all flights, but such a half-arsed measure at this stage of their outbreak isn't going to buy them much time at all

It's just optics.

The UK being a massive travel hub really makes the European flight ban quite silly but at least he can still golf, right?

[efcfanwirral]

9 minutes ago, Avalon_Fields said:

That's cheered me up! BT here I come....hopefully

You know what maybe me too - great lineup but wouldn't be able to make the original date as my gilfriend is at her friend's hen do that weekend.  will book tickets if it moves (tiniest sliver of silver lining amongst a dark sky) 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

1 minute ago, Mr.Tease said:

Yep, makes Trumps european flights ban even dafter (I could understand if it was all flights, but such a half-arsed measure at this stage of their outbreak isn't going to buy them much time at all.

Yep, and I guess it rings true with the governments view that testing all the people arriving back from Italy wouldn’t make much difference, against a backdrop of uproar that they weren’t.

I’d imagine on an ideal world that’s something they would do, but resources are finite and they must have modelled it and decide those resources were better deployed elsewhere.

If it’s already in your country then it’s being spread all over the place in multiple locations, people arriving will be a drop in the ocean really.

Trumps measure really is ridiculous, they will be sitting on a ticking time bomb over there, the best thing the rest of the world could do is ban all incoming flights from the US.

[efcfanwirral]

6 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Yep, makes Trumps european flights ban even dafter (I could understand if it was all flights, but such a half-arsed measure at this stage of their outbreak isn't going to buy them much time at all.

He's election campaigning and profiteering already. Can blame it on Europe's devil free movement socialism, say he was decisive in stopping the spread (no tests no numbers eh) and look to work their way in to "help" the failed commie healthcare systems in Europe and UK.

Some of that is tongue in cheek but as you can tell, I have a lot of faith in American politics and business....

[squirrelarmy]

1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

Some of that is tongue in cheek but as you can tell, I have a lot of faith in American politics and business....

You know how bad the Australian toilet roll riots have been. Now imagine that with guns. 

[steviewevie]

word on street/twitter is that govt will not ban mass events or close school yet, just tell people to stay home if ill and wash hands a lot etc.

Apparently this is advised from experts....probably a spreadsheet with how many deaths acceptable.

[stopwn1981]

Our government is accepting this rolling through based on Chinese estimates of death rate, which were clearly bollocks.

This has the potential to get messy.