Will Coronavirus lead to the cancellation of Glastonbury?

[Breeze]

YOUNG AND UNAFRAID OF THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC? GOOD FOR YOU. NOW STOP KILLING PEOPLE

https://www.newsweek.com/young-unafraid-coronavirus-pandemic-good-you-now-stop-killing-people-opinion-1491797

Just popped in to see if lots of people in here are still (metaphorically) smoking crack. 

Folks lots of people are going to die, small uncapitalised businesses are going to go out of business so many people will lose their jobs (for me this seems quite likely). There will be a global recession. None of this is scaremongering. It is blatantly obvious and hopeful thinking is dangerous if you are acting in a hopeful manner. Prepare (and act) for the worst, and hope for the best. 

Johnson will not save us. He is an idiot. They had tens of thousands of Athletico Madrid fans in Anfield last night. Madrid is an outbreak hotspot. This is insanity. In normal times this sort of stupidity would bring down the government, but the Brexit cult is high on horseshit.

 

[Breeze]

11 minutes ago, Monie802 said:

China has been on STRICT lockdowns since basically January. They're doing some crazy stuff which is way beyond what any western country would do, and it's still spreading.

It's slowing down dramatically there. If ONLY there was something we could learn from it.

[Toilet Duck]

12 minutes ago, DeadAmos said:

Not a medical professional but from what I have read the 2 week incubation period is the time when symptoms can show , but a test will show up pos or neg almost straight away

There's a minimum threshold that the test can detected (like all tests!). You need to be shedding virus for the nasal swabs to pick it up (PCR is extremely sensitive, but it still has a limit). Can certainly be before you develop symptoms, but it's not "straight away". Means using the tests as a screening tool is ineffective and a waste of tests (the same person who is negative if you test too early could turn out to be positive a couple of days later). Same with the temperature. Most cases only develop a fever for a day or so and it doesn't coincide with when they can be shedding virus...the only good thing about asymptomatic people who are positive is that they are not coughing the virus all over the place. Advice to self-isolate if you develop a cough is still decent advice. You'll be way more infectious then...(not you personally obviously!...unless you have a cough 😷). 

[efcfanwirral]

4 minutes ago, Monie802 said:

From what I heard, South Korea (I believe) was doing door-to-door testing for this exact reason. They've done something insane like over 110,000 tests at this point. 

Edited - read about the tests above 

Edited March 12, 2020 by efcfanwirral

[ErnestWorthing]

1 minute ago, Breeze said:

Folks lots of people are going to die, small uncapitalised businesses are going to go out of business so many people will lose their jobs (for me this seems quite likely). There will be a global recession. None of this is scaremongering. It is blatantly obvious and hopeful thinking is dangerous if you are acting in a hopeful manner. Prepare (and act) for the worst, and hope for the best. 
 

 

 

It's a heavy flu, the media will get bored and move on soon enough, stop being ridiculous.

[Ducky89]

a friend is a supplier for Glastonbury, he's been chasing them for two week to send over their Purchase Order and they do appear to be stalling. This is the same across the festival industry - he's pretty worried for his business - scary times for not just Glastonbury, but the wider economy connected to events.

[Breeze]

Just now, Toilet Duck said:

There's a minimum threshold that the test can detected (like all tests!). You need to be shedding virus for the nasal swabs to pick it up (PCR is extremely sensitive, but it still has a limit). Can certainly be before you develop symptoms, but it's not "straight away". Means using the tests as a screening tool is ineffective and a waste of tests (the same person who is negative if you test too early could turn out to be positive a couple of days later). Same with the temperature. Most cases only develop a fever for a day or so and it doesn't coincide with when they can be shedding virus...the only good thing about asymptomatic people who are positive is that they are not coughing the virus all over the place. Advice to self-isolate if you develop a cough is still decent advice. You'll be way more infectious then...(not you personally obviously!...unless you have a cough 😷). 

Also it's been shown 14 day quarantine is not enough for about 1% of cases who will shed/become symptomatic afterwards. So there is uncertainty there also.

[Toilet Duck]

15 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

That is interesting - hopefully they create a cheap and quick test that can be mass produced, it'll be a game changer as people can know to self isolate. Though testing people beyond travel history and having direct contact with a known case could help...

There is a quick cheap test. It actually costs about $40-50 and it can be done in any hospital. They are charging upwards of $4000 per test in the states though (eeeek)...but the test being used here is pretty much the same one and it's cheap as chips. 

 

Edit: most of the tests are being done at virus reference labs as it stands (or they currently are here in Ireland), but it's a simple PCR, most hospitals are equipped to run it. 

Edited March 12, 2020 by Toilet Duck
clarification

[Breeze]

1 minute ago, ErnestWorthing said:

 

It's a heavy flu, the media will get bored and move on soon enough, stop being ridiculous.

We found the crack pipe.

This sort of ignorance is what will kill vulnerable people (old, diabetics, asthmatics, immuno-compromised).

[Toilet Duck]

1 minute ago, Breeze said:

Also it's been shown 14 day quarantine is not enough for about 1% of cases who will shed/become symptomatic afterwards. So there is uncertainty there also.

Yeah, looks like median time to being symptomatic is about 5 days or so...at 2 weeks, 99% of cases will have developed symptoms. There are case reports of individuals going as long as 27 days, but these are real outliers. 

[DeadAmos]

4 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

There's a minimum threshold that the test can detected (like all tests!). You need to be shedding virus for the nasal swabs to pick it up (PCR is extremely sensitive, but it still has a limit). Can certainly be before you develop symptoms, but it's not "straight away". Means using the tests as a screening tool is ineffective and a waste of tests (the same person who is negative if you test too early could turn out to be positive a couple of days later). Same with the temperature. Most cases only develop a fever for a day or so and it doesn't coincide with when they can be shedding virus...the only good thing about asymptomatic people who are positive is that they are not coughing the virus all over the place. Advice to self-isolate if you develop a cough is still decent advice. You'll be way more infectious then...(not you personally obviously!...unless you have a cough 😷). 

Edited my post , thanks for the right info

and yes I do have a cough

[ErnestWorthing]

1 minute ago, Breeze said:

We found the crack pipe.

This sort of ignorance is what will kill vulnerable people (old, diabetics, asthmatics, immuno-compromised).

Found chicken licken.

[Toilet Duck]

1 minute ago, DeadAmos said:

Edited my post , thanks for the right info

and yes I do have a cough

Stay safe and hole up at home if you can...

[Breeze]

Just now, ErnestWorthing said:

Found chicken licken.

Which bit did you disagree with? Global recession? Lots of people will die? (Lots already have). Small businesses going out of business? (There's someone on this thread saying if Glasto don't send a PO and other festivals don't happen their business is under threat. Many businesses supply chains are already disrupted because of China shutdown.).

Anyway let's check back in a couple of months and we'll see if it is just a 'Heavy flu' (BTW this is Trump's position and the scientific community in the US is aghast, but what do they know.)

[northernringo]

Today's update:

More of the same really with a few worrying countries but nothing massively out of the ordinary (except maybe Qatar).

China's cases dropped again, this time by 1,363 (14,959). Italy could realistically overtake China soon as the most infected country in the world which is pretty crazy. South Korea again showed signs of being in their peak period. They did see a rise but only of 16 (7,470). Recoveries still coming in in fairly low numbers so hopefully that begins to ramp up.

Elsewhere in East Asia, yesterday wasn't a disaster but was one of the more disappointing days. Increases in Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia. A slight drop of 2 though in Taiwan (28). Japan as expected continues to rise but at a fairly controlled rate, up 37 (505). In other news, a bulk announcement of recoveries was made from the Diamond Princess, (285 with 1 death) which leaves existing cases at 364.

In the Middle East, Qatar saw a massive jump after a few days of steady growth. Quite worrying, as they went from 24 to 262. Iran also increased by over 650 (5,687) and there were further less dramatic increases throughout the region. UAE did manage to drop its case numbers by 5 though (57). Iraq is also quite worrying, their high death rate might be an indication of a lot more cases than they are reporting.

In Europe, much of the growth was as expected. Italy had another massive jump,  up 1,796 cases (10,590). Other worrying jumps were again in Norway (up 228 to 628) and  Denmark (up 252 to 513). Sweden also with a large jump of 144 to 498. These countries are really struggling to get it under control. Germany and France up by around 500 each and Spain is up by just over 400. Spain announced quite a few recoveries which helped their figures a bit. All 3 are in and around 2,000 cases (France on 2,221). The UK as we know saw more growth but nothing too unexpected. Ireland saw an increase of 8 overall (and its first death).

Africa saw good news in a big reduction in Egypt, down 25 to 32. Elsewhere, growth was either non-existent or pretty small, two new countries in Ivory Coast (1) and DR Congo.

Still no recoveries in South America and general small increases again across the continent - no country has lost control of it yet based on their figures though. Guyana announced its first case and death so remains on 0. Further north, the disease has begun spreading around the islands a little more, with first cases in Jamaica and Cuba in the past couple of days. Mexico also saw a little increase of 5 (8).

In North America, USA saw another large jump, this time of 265 (1,266). They haven't announced a recovery in a while either. Further expected growth in Canada as it increased by 24 (108). India's cases are rising day by day and have now hit 68, Russia haven't announced a change in a few days though (17). New Zealand have also been on 5 for quite a few days which is encouraging and the jump in Australia was also nothing too surprising, cases rose by 21 (104).

[squirrelarmy]

Chinese officials think the global pandemic will be over by June. 
 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-pandemic/china-coronavirus-adviser-expects-global-pandemic-to-be-over-by-june-idUSKBN20Z19P?il=0

 

 

[Havors]

5 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Chinese officials think the global pandemic will be over by June. 
 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-pandemic/china-coronavirus-adviser-expects-global-pandemic-to-be-over-by-june-idUSKBN20Z19P?il=0

 

 

If the correct measures are taken swiftly theres a chance like. The thing we need worry about is when any social distancing rules will be lifted... before June or after june once the pandemic is "over"... 

 

[mcshed]

10 minutes ago, Breeze said:

We found the crack pipe.

This sort of ignorance is what will kill vulnerable people (old, diabetics, asthmatics, immuno-compromised).

I really don't understand the anger you get when you describe this as a heavy flu or a bad flu. The touchstone for a outbreak of a terrible respiratory illness that killed millions was Spanish flu so calling it flu-like isn't minimising it's an easy way of describing the symptoms, those most effected and the mode of infection that most people understand. This is very much like a bad case of the flu, it is killing people in their thousands and it may well get much worse, it might cause a global recession but none of that means you shouldn't call it flu-like.

[Toilet Duck]

1 minute ago, mcshed said:

I really don't understand the anger you get when you describe this as a heavy flu or a bad flu. The touchstone for a outbreak of a terrible respiratory illness that killed millions was Spanish flu so calling it flu-like isn't minimising it's an easy way of describing the symptoms, those most effected and the mode of infection that most people understand. This is very much like a bad case of the flu, it is killing people in their thousands and it may well get much worse, it might cause a global recession but none of that means you shouldn't call it flu-like.

Technically you are correct...but when folk dismiss it as a "heavy-flu", they are most likely thinking about seasonal flu and not a pandemic that killed 50-100m people at best estimates. If they are,  then it's an astounding level of complacency...

[gigpusher]

11 minutes ago, northernringo said:

Today's update:

More of the same really with a few worrying countries but nothing massively out of the ordinary (except maybe Qatar).

China's cases dropped again, this time by 1,363 (14,959). Italy could realistically overtake China soon as the most infected country in the world which is pretty crazy. South Korea again showed signs of being in their peak period. They did see a rise but only of 16 (7,470). Recoveries still coming in in fairly low numbers so hopefully that begins to ramp up.

Elsewhere in East Asia, yesterday wasn't a disaster but was one of the more disappointing days. Increases in Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia. A slight drop of 2 though in Taiwan (28). Japan as expected continues to rise but at a fairly controlled rate, up 37 (505). In other news, a bulk announcement of recoveries was made from the Diamond Princess, (285 with 1 death) which leaves existing cases at 364.

In the Middle East, Qatar saw a massive jump after a few days of steady growth. Quite worrying, as they went from 24 to 262. Iran also increased by over 650 (5,687) and there were further less dramatic increases throughout the region. UAE did manage to drop its case numbers by 5 though (57). Iraq is also quite worrying, their high death rate might be an indication of a lot more cases than they are reporting.

In Europe, much of the growth was as expected. Italy had another massive jump,  up 1,796 cases (10,590). Other worrying jumps were again in Norway (up 228 to 628) and  Denmark (up 252 to 513). Sweden also with a large jump of 144 to 498. These countries are really struggling to get it under control. Germany and France up by around 500 each and Spain is up by just over 400. Spain announced quite a few recoveries which helped their figures a bit. All 3 are in and around 2,000 cases (France on 2,221). The UK as we know saw more growth but nothing too unexpected. Ireland saw an increase of 8 overall (and its first death).

Africa saw good news in a big reduction in Egypt, down 25 to 32. Elsewhere, growth was either non-existent or pretty small, two new countries in Ivory Coast (1) and DR Congo.

Still no recoveries in South America and general small increases again across the continent - no country has lost control of it yet based on their figures though. Guyana announced its first case and death so remains on 0. Further north, the disease has begun spreading around the islands a little more, with first cases in Jamaica and Cuba in the past couple of days. Mexico also saw a little increase of 5 (8).

In North America, USA saw another large jump, this time of 265 (1,266). They haven't announced a recovery in a while either. Further expected growth in Canada as it increased by 24 (108). India's cases are rising day by day and have now hit 68, Russia haven't announced a change in a few days though (17). New Zealand have also been on 5 for quite a few days which is encouraging and the jump in Australia was also nothing too surprising, cases rose by 21 (104).

Question are we just seeing more cases reported by countries that have better healthcare systems and social policies to support people if they are ill. 

I think America should be a bigger concern because people will have to pay to be tested and many states have no entitlement to sick pay so if self-isolating for 14 days could potentially see you broke then you are not going to do it. 

[Breeze]

2 minutes ago, mcshed said:

I really don't understand the anger you get when you describe this as a heavy flu or a bad flu. The touchstone for a outbreak of a terrible respiratory illness that killed millions was Spanish flu so calling it flu-like isn't minimising it's an easy way of describing the symptoms, those most effected and the mode of infection that most people understand. This is very much like a bad case of the flu, it is killing people in their thousands and it may well get much worse, it might cause a global recession but none of that means you shouldn't call it flu-like.

It was in the context of the rest of the post. He suggests it is a media construct. That is also Trumpist horseshit.

PS He didn't say it was flu-like. He said it was the flu. It is not the flu. It is not the Spanish Flu. Just very tired of people talking nonsense about this. Nonsense can kill vulnerable people. 

[ErnestWorthing]

1 minute ago, Breeze said:

It was in the context of the rest of the post. He suggests it is a media construct. That is also Trumpist horseshit.

PS He didn't say it was flu-like. He said it was the flu. It is not the flu. It is not the Spanish Flu. Just very tired of people talking nonsense about this. Nonsense can kill vulnerable people. 

I said heavy flu, which is it.  Flu has killed 3 times as many people as corona so far.  Forty times more people have committed suicide. God forbid we have some sense of perspective.

[chazwwe]

If there's an announcement of a poster drop today, can we all move onto being excited about all the fantastic acts we're gonna see? Just for today. 

[mcshed]

4 minutes ago, Breeze said:

It was in the context of the rest of the post. He suggests it is a media construct. That is also Trumpist horseshit.

PS He didn't say it was flu-like. He said it was the flu. It is not the flu. It is not the Spanish Flu. Just very tired of people talking nonsense about this. Nonsense can kill vulnerable people. 

Well some other coronaviruses are responsible for the cold like coronavirus 229E so you could argue you'd be more technically correct calling this a bad cold not a bad flu but I think in terms of common understanding calling this a bad flu seems perfectly sensible.

[Toilet Duck]

3 minutes ago, ErnestWorthing said:

I said heavy flu, which is it.  Flu has killed 3 times as many people as corona so far.  Forty times more people have committed suicide. God forbid we have some sense of perspective.

The outbreak has only started, you have no idea how many people it might kill, so you can't compare. Of course we will still deal with other causes of death, but if we ignore this one, many many more people will die from it (based on the rate is kills people at the moment). With any luck (and some socially responsible behaviour), the world might get a handle on this, and if we do, we'll have dodged a bullet. I sincerely hope this is the case.