Will Coronavirus lead to the cancellation of Glastonbury?

[stuartbert two hats]

5 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Slightly OT, but I’m genuinely just curios.

So far there is no evidence you can get it twice, so that suggests immunity. At the very least of you get and there isn’t immunity it would be far milder second time around.

Im saying this as a fit and healthy 38 year old with absolutely no underlying medical conditions... would anybody be tempted to deliberately get it if they could?

I know of a friend of a friend who has it, if you get it you then don’t have to worry about getting it over the next year or so, you can self isolate until it’s gone and then you don’t have to constantly worry about passing it on to vulnerable family members either. My parents are both in their 70s and my dad has had several heart operations

Just a thought, and it pretty much sits with how the government seem to want to try and play it as well.

Totally. You get it, isolate, get over it and bingo, you can get back to life, without worrying about killing any old people that are a couple of degrees of separation from you. It's crossed my mind, and I'm sure many other people's.

The trick is having the infection and being 100% sure you're not passing it on when the NHS is (or is about to be) under massive strain.

[Toilet Duck]

8 minutes ago, kalifire said:

 

Except there are lots of unknown variables in this strategy...I fully understand the concept of herd immunity (it’s the entire basis of mass vaccination)...but, there’s too many assumptions for me to take the risk. Does exposure result in immunity? For how long? (Even with vaccinations, some require repeated exposure to create robust immunological memory and protection from infection). Can you actually accurately manage infection rates to “turn off the tap” exactly when you want to? Especially when you have shifted your testing policy and will no longer have an accurate picture of infection rates (they don’t have an accurate picture anyway, most estimates put them way higher than the official numbers currently are)...I could go on, but there are lots of reasons this is a risky approach (one that looks clever on paper when a handful of people have died, but gets harder to justify when deaths top 1000, 10,000, 100,000...standing up and saying “hold steady, it’s for your own good in the long run” is gonna be difficult to swallow). 
 

the flaw in the explanation in the video is that there IS a way to stop the water in the bucket getting sick once you have it under control. And that’s strict quarantine for anyone entering the bucket. At the start, there’s not many people who can...but as more countries stop infections, more are free to come in...curbs on travel only need to exist until we can achieve herd immunity via a safe route (mass vaccination)...

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

Totally. You get it, isolate, get over it and bingo, you can get back to life, without worrying about killing any old people that are a couple of degrees of separation from you. It's crossed my mind, and I'm sure many other people's.

The trick is having the infection and being 100% sure you're not passing it on when the NHS is (or is about to be) under massive strain.

I think you would need to know somebody who has it, go and visit them, make sure you do your best to get it and go straight home and self isolate for two weeks. It could only work for people who are currently able to work from home. I think that’s the only safe way you could do it that doesn’t risk others.

[sime]

11 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Slightly OT, but I’m genuinely just curios.

So far there is no evidence you can get it twice, so that suggests immunity. At the very least of you get and there isn’t immunity it would be far milder second time around.

Im saying this as a fit and healthy 38 year old with absolutely no underlying medical conditions... would anybody be tempted to deliberately get it if they could?

I know of a friend of a friend who has it, if you get it you then don’t have to worry about getting it over the next year or so, you can self isolate until it’s gone and then you don’t have to constantly worry about passing it on to vulnerable family members either. My parents are both in their 70s and my dad has had several heart operations

Just a thought, and it pretty much sits with how the government seem to want to try and play it as well.

Sadly someone has now been reinfected. 

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200315_13/

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

3 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Except there are lots of unknown variables in this strategy...I fully understand the concept of herd immunity (it’s the entire basis of mass vaccination)...but, there’s too many assumptions for me to take the risk. Does exposure result in immunity? For how long? (Even with vaccinations, some require repeated exposure to create robust immunological memory and protection from infection). Can you actually accurately manage infection rates to “turn off the tap” exactly when you want to? Especially when you have shifted your testing policy and will no longer have an accurate picture of infection rates (they don’t have an accurate picture anyway, most estimates put them way higher than the official numbers currently are)...I could go on, but there are lots of reasons this is a risky approach (one that looks clever on paper when a handful of people have died, but gets harder to justify when deaths top 1000, 10,000, 100,000...standing up and saying “hold steady, it’s for your own good in the long run” is gonna be difficult to swallow). 
 

the flaw in the explanation in the video is that there IS a way to stop the water in the bucket getting sick once you have it under control. And that’s strict quarantine for anyone entering the bucket. At the start, there’s not many people who can...but as more countries stop infections, more are free to come in...curbs on travel only need to exist until we can achieve herd immunity via a safe route (mass vaccination)...

Surely you also need to make sure you have completely eradicated the virus from your own country though, irrespective of quarantining people coming into the country? If the virus still exists at all, then internal quarantine is just keeping a lid on it temporarily, if it’s still there and people haven’t had it you're just delaying the inevitable.
 

[MEGABOWL]

36 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Older people more at risk because more of them have other conditions...heart disease, diabetes, lunch conditions etc etc. If your Gran is otherwise healthy then hopefully her risk is lower.

Yeah she’s got a few other issues. I’m more thinking of the loneliness TBH. Currently racking my brain to think of some way to get a Video Calling Device into her home without Internet or anyone going in to help set it up 🤔

[Toilet Duck]

1 minute ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Surely you also need to make sure you have completely eradicated the virus from your own country though, irrespective of quarantining people coming into the country? If the virus still exists at all, then internal quarantine is just keeping a lid on it temporarily, if it’s still there and people haven’t had it you're just delaying the inevitable.
 

Yep, you do...hence Wuhan is still on lockdown with no new infections...China is importing more infections now than new endogenous cases...stringent quarantine for those entering the country is the next step for them. 

[Ommadawn]

19 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Slightly OT, but I’m genuinely just curios.

So far there is no evidence you can get it twice, so that suggests immunity. At the very least of you get and there isn’t immunity it would be far milder second time around.

Im saying this as a fit and healthy 38 year old with absolutely no underlying medical conditions... would anybody be tempted to deliberately get it if they could?

I know of a friend of a friend who has it, if you get it you then don’t have to worry about getting it over the next year or so, you can self isolate until it’s gone and then you don’t have to constantly worry about passing it on to vulnerable family members either. My parents are both in their 70s and my dad has had several heart operations

Just a thought, and it pretty much sits with how the government seem to want to try and play it as well.

If you do contract it and recover, you might be immune from getting it again, but surely you could still pick up the virus and pass it on others even it is has no effect on you. Maybe?

[Dave85radiohead]

5 minutes ago, MEGABOWL said:

Yeah she’s got a few other issues. I’m more thinking of the loneliness TBH. Currently racking my brain to think of some way to get a Video Calling Device into her home without Internet or anyone going in to help set it up 🤔

A tablet? You could face time her and it will ring just like a phone when you're calling. She would only need to press answer and you could have a face to face chat. You could pay for 3g or 4g on a monthly contract for her? 

Edited March 15, 2020 by Dave85radiohead

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

36 minutes ago, Breeze said:

If what you say is true about vaccines (and I think and hope it may well be - Swine Flu arrived in the U.K. May 2009 and we had a vaccine by October) then the government’s herd immunity policy is reckless insanity.

As I suggested earlier they did indeed come under so much pressure to justify their total outlier policy they’ve had to change tack in less than 48 hours. Current and ex directors of WHO and many, many scientists looking aghast at their ideas. Tragic m, unfounded ideas of British exceptionalism the only thing keeping it alive. We’ll see more cave in very soon I think.

Some suggestion they will legislate to keep schools open to prevent Scotland or Wales showing them up (again). 

It is not a question of breakthroughs with vaccines, there are already plenty being worked on but there will always be a minimum period of time before vaccine is available, certifiably safe and in a position that it can be produced and distributed. Anything before a year from now would be fanciful.

What is your suggestion, complete and utter lockdown on everything for a year waiting for a vaccine? Or try and protect the vulnerable as best as possible, while at the same time letting those able to get on with their lives as much as possible while getting infected at a sensible rate?

[babyblade41]

just had an email from Pilton hill. campsite  that they will delay invoicing the full amount until Easter 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

5 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Yep, you do...hence Wuhan is still on lockdown with no new infections...China is importing more infections now than new endogenous cases...stringent quarantine for those entering the country is the next step for them. 

But is that feasible? I personally don’t think it is, it’s as unfeasible as getting it back in it’s box now which would be impossible. So in my mind the most sensible approach is let those able to get infected normally at a sensible rate and protect those most vulnerable to it.

[babyblade41]

Hi

 

The line-up has now been announced and we are all eagerly anticipating Glastonbury 2020, however Coronavirus is obviously creating uncertainty. It is clear that the situation is changing on a week by week basis. On the basis that with time there may be greater clarity, and as Festival ticket payments are due in early April, I will be in touch again around Easter and not invoice for any camping balance until then.

 

Let's all hope that Glastonbury is able to go ahead, and there is reason to celebrate.

Best wishes

Paddy 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

5 minutes ago, Ommadawn said:

If you do contract it and recover, you might be immune from getting it again, but surely you could still pick up the virus and pass it on others even it is has no effect on you. Maybe?

I think if you’re immune your body is able to immediately recognise it when it enters the body and knows what to do to fight it off straight away, so it doesn’t become present in your saliva when you breath and cough etc. I’m certainly no expert though so hopefully somebody in the know can confirm 

[Toilet Duck]

Just now, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

But is that feasible? I personally don’t think it is, it’s as unfeasible as getting it back in it’s box now which would be impossible. So in my mind the most sensible approach is let those able to get infected normally at a sensible rate and protect those most vulnerable to it.

I do get the idea... but how do you let those able to be “normally” infected become infected at a sensible rate? First studies published suggested the R0 is about 2.5. Newer data suggests R0 of 4-6. Which is it? Will the next study have a different infection rate? How have the determinations of the R0 been influenced by the containment measures that were put in place in the populations these studies were conducted in? What’s the R0 if we actively start to encourage infections in those best able to manage the infection (ie, leaving kids in school)...There are so many things we don’t know about this virus that it’s exceptionally risky.

[eastynh]

9 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Everybody wants to talk about it, this is literally what this thread is for. But you're talking in absolute ridiculous extremes which is doing much more harm than good.

It’s important to get some perspective, although the numbers will of course rise, right now there 20 people in the U.K. in a critical condition from corona virus. It wouldn’t be anywhere even close to feasible to implement all those measures you listed for anywhere near a year.

Do you think the British public would tolerate every single aspect of their life being shut down for that long for a virus that when all is said and done is not that dangerous? There would come a point long before a year that they just don’t give a toss about getting it, if it was enforced think of the London riots x 100.

it might work if it was something like Ebola with a 50% death rate and you die from drowning internally in your own blood, but not for the flu.

This is exactly why the government have delayed as long as possible because measures can only be implemented for so long.

Its not going to be great, but it’s going to be relatively short and not as wide ranging as you predict.

its important to be realistic but it’s also important to not work everyone into a frenzy unnecessarily.

Do you think countries are shutting down their entire way of life and tanking their economies because of a virus that is in fact not that dangerous?

[stopwn1981]

21 minutes ago, sime said:

Sadly someone has now been reinfected. 

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200315_13/

Either never cleared it, or its bi-phasic, no immunity or different strain.

 

[eFestivals]

55 minutes ago, Breeze said:

If what you say is true about vaccines (and I think and hope it may well be - Swine Flu arrived in the U.K. May 2009 and we had a vaccine by October) then the government’s herd immunity policy is reckless insanity.

but also, if what many are saying about herd immunity being impossible, then a vaccine whenever it comes is not a paneca and humanity is going to be dealing with covid-19 for eternity.

[Ommadawn]

21 minutes ago, MEGABOWL said:

Yeah she’s got a few other issues. I’m more thinking of the loneliness TBH. Currently racking my brain to think of some way to get a Video Calling Device into her home without Internet or anyone going in to help set it up 🤔

I'm looking for the same for my Mother. She 93 so it needs to be simple to use.

[sime]

5 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

Either never cleared it, or its bi-phasic, no immunity or different strain.

 

Did you read the article? He was cleared of the virus. Different strain? Possibly. But he was initially cleared.

Edited March 15, 2020 by sime

[Toilet Duck]

4 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I think if you’re immune your body is able to immediately recognise it when it enters the body and knows what to do to fight it off straight away, so it doesn’t become present in your saliva when you breath and cough etc. I’m certainly no expert though so hopefully somebody in the know can confirm 

There are far too many variables and we have no idea how immunological memory to the virus will manifest. Even if you are vaccinated against something, anything that impairs your immune function can still lead to you developing an infection (low grade, you’ll likely fight it off eventually)...there are serious chronic conditions that can suppress your immune function, but also pretty mundane things that can temporarily lead to less than optimal immune function...alcohol consumption for example, diet, rest. Is everyone gonna start living like a monk to make sure they are in tip top shape to fight off a virus that is now rampant due to a policy of making sure everyone gets it? Honestly, it’s a crazy strategy.

 

FWIW, I’m a professor of molecular oncology at a large medical school (with a PhD in virology...well, viral oncology to be precise)...I understand everything I have read about this outbreak, and mainly stick to peer reviewed literature (and obviously with the rapidly revolving situation, pre-print severs). Even I have no idea how this is going to pan out. 

[squirrelarmy]

7 minutes ago, eastynh said:

Do you think countries are shutting down their entire way of life and tanking their economies because of a virus that is in fact not that dangerous?

It’s incredibly dangerous and there’s no guarantee that it will work either. 
 

This virus is here to stay and we have to adapt to it and survive the same as we have with any other virus over the centuries. 

[morph100]

4 minutes ago, Ommadawn said:

I'm looking for the same for my Mother. She 93 so it needs to be simple to use.

What about that Portal TV thing from Facebook, that’s probably easy to use, not really looked at them myself but they might be a good solution.

[Mr.Tease]

3 minutes ago, Ommadawn said:

I'm looking for the same for my Mother. She 93 so it needs to be simple to use.

I wonder if someone can volunteer to live with their older relatives if they think they're going to struggle, and also self isolate with them- maybe that would be a way to help lessen the blow for those that might especially struggle. 

Also what about those that live with an elderly relative already - are they going to have to isolate for 4 months to or are they meant to move elsewhere? 

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, squirrelarmy said:

It’s incredibly dangerous and there’s no guarantee that it will work either. 

yup. The UK imports half it's food. What's it going to do when people in (say) Spain decide they don't want to take extra risks by farming food for people in other countries? 

Ultimately I can't see anything much different to "we've all just got to get on with life" because if we - the whole world - don't we create far bigger shit for humanity than a virus which isn't a risk to most.