Will Coronavirus lead to the cancellation of Glastonbury?

[Dave85radiohead]

Over 70's set to be told to stay at home for 4 months. Festivals aren't happening this year 

[Dave_c]

6 hours ago, bombfrog said:

Developing the vaccine doesn't take long, I believe one may already exist. The problem is the length f time that trials take. You can't go givving hundreds of thousands of people a vaccine that hasn't gone through usually about 2 years of testing.

This, I listened to a podcast where a doctor was saying they could have a vaccine tomorrow, but as you say, it needs to be tested, not for its effectiveness, but to verify that it is safe. for now the only thing we can do is take preventative action with social distancing etc.

[Lycra]

Whilst we've been debating whether the festival will be cancelled due to government banning mass gatherings another reason has slipped under the radar.....financial. Out and about yesterday it was very noticeable crowds were down. People had taken it on themselves to socially distance. Public behaviour is changing. This could reduce ticket demand for events, squeeze promoters income and cause cancellations. 

[thewayiam]

2 hours ago, kalifire said:

You're posting as if I'm not following this closely. We all are. You're not blowing any minds here, Bobby.

I'm just choosing to be hopeful, because until the day Emily announces it's not happening, it could. I don't sense that there's an absolute inevitability about cancellation yet, mainly given the sudden escalation in preventative measures, and the amount time between now and the festival.

I'm realistic that there's an increasing probability that it won't happen, but what's the point of resigning myself to it, wallowing in the misery, and popping on to forums to piss on everyone else's party? There's no point.

If it doesn't happen, so be it. I'll deal with the disappointment when it's official.

Until then, I'm happy to band together with the eFests family, watch closely and hope.

The bright side is that if you don't get to then no one does so you're not missing it in anything. That's not meant to be bad either it's a positive way of looking at it.

[Babylon sister]

To suggest that over 70's are to stay at home for four months and in the same article say that ministers dont want to have to make decisions such as not treating people over 65 is beyond outrageous, bullying, scaremonger. Fear is the greatest form of social control and my fear is that this povides the perfect platform for the government to present privatisation of the nhs as part of the solution.

 

[Babylon sister]

And meanwhile richard branson is asking the govt to sanction a 7.5 billion airline bail out!!

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

6 hours ago, clarkete said:

Where are you getting your figures from?

It doesn't tally with either cases or deaths and that's the only two figures I've seen quoted officially 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-track-coronavirus-cases

As for the likely trend for those figures in the next couple of weeks "Observations by epidemiologists show that if unchecked, the number of infections doubles approximately every five days, with infected individuals capable of passing the virus to an average of about 2.5 people.

“What we are seeing is not rocket science,” Balloux said. “You have two cases, then four, then eight, then 16.""

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/flatten-the-curve-coronavirus/2020/03/12/a648883c-6460-11ea-8a8e-5c5336b32760_story.html

 

20 people in a critical condition in the UK:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Italy about 1500:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

It probably doesn’t tally with what you’ve read because it doesn’t fit with the sensationalist media narrative, and the fact that it’s mild in 90% of people.
 

 

Edited March 15, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[Suprefan]

10 minutes ago, Lycra said:

Whilst we've been debating whether the festival will be cancelled due to government banning mass gatherings another reason has slipped under the radar.....financial. Out and about yesterday it was very noticeable crowds were down. People had taken it on themselves to socially distance. Public behaviour is changing. This could reduce ticket demand for events, squeeze promoters income and cause cancellations. 

So you didnt notice Live Nation’s valuation went down $1.8 Billion on friday?  I know youre referring to smaller promoters but the big guys already took a huge gut punch this week. AEG isnt a publicly traded company so no idea how much was lost on their end, but had to be a bit. Saving Coachella is going to cost them, but they at least get a shot at having their event and boosting the local economy of the area its held in.

 
i had mentioned it earlier in the week as to why they wouldnt want to shut things down now and financial was one of them. Seems that theyre going to have to bit the bullet now. How many gigs are being outright canceled in the uk at the moment? Nothing is being postponed? That keeps the money with the promoter and they arent being gutted by having to refund everyone.  Thats the biggest thing here in that states right now that over 90% of gigs and tours are being postponed and not canceled. They wanna hold onto the money with pretty much a promise that the show will go on.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

50 minutes ago, Dave85radiohead said:

Over 70's set to be told to stay at home for 4 months. Festivals aren't happening this year 

Trying to isolate the most vulnerable if anything makes it more likely than less based on how they’ve approached it so far.

It still doesn’t make it likely at this stage, but isolating the more vulnerable would enable life to go on more normally, and fits perfectly with the herd immunity theory.

[Lycra]

11 minutes ago, Babylon sister said:

To suggest that over 70's are to stay at home for four months and in the same article say that ministers dont want to have to make decisions such as not treating people over 65 is beyond outrageous, bullying, scaremonger. Fear is the greatest form of social control and my fear is that this povides the perfect platform for the government to present privatisation of the nhs as part of the solution.

 

From what I read the private health system in America and it's lack of a public health system may well prove an Achilles heel in confronting the outbreak there.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

4 hours ago, Copperface said:

"The Times suggests that police will be able to detain infected people, and schools and nurseries could be forced to stay open, as part of a package of emergency powers to be introduced next week. The paper says councils will be allowed to "lower standards in care homes" to cope with staff shortages, and there will also be measures to speed up cremations and burials.

The Times adds that ministers believe the virus will infect the majority of the population, and the new laws are likely to stay in place for two years."

 

Wonder if 2022 might be the next GF? Music festivals are however, an irrelevance in the context of these times.

Hope the reality and gravity of the situation now facing us is apparent to all.

This is like nothing any of us have ever experienced. Almost like the reboot button has been pressed because everything is beyond repair. Very worrying. 

Those measures actually seem fairly sensible though, and there is no mention of the measures Matt was suggesting, banning weddings and closing restaurants and bars for a year or so. If anything it fits into a scenario where normal life continues as much as possible.

Edited March 15, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[Wooderson]

Jesus christ this thread. Gross.

[Mr.Tease]

 

Quote

 

Anti-inflammatories may aggravate Covid-19, France advises

French minister says patients should take paracetamol rather than ibuprofen or cortisone

French authorities have warned that widely used over-the-counter anti-inflammatory drugs may worsen the coronavirus.

The country’s health minister, Olivier Véran, who is a qualified doctor and neurologist, tweeted on Saturday: “The taking of anti-inflammatories [ibuprofen, cortisone … ] could be a factor in aggravating the infection. In case of fever, take paracetamol. If you are already taking anti-inflammatory drugs, ask your doctor’s advice.”

Health officials point out that anti-inflammatory drugs are known to be a risk for those with infectious illnesses because they tend to diminish the response of the body’s immune system.

The health ministry added that patients should choose paracetamol because “it will reduce the fever without counterattacking the inflammation”.

French patients have been forced to consult pharmacies since mid-January if they want to buy popular painkillers, including ibuprofen, paracetamol and aspirin, to be reminded of the risks.

Jean-Louis Montastruc, the head of pharmacology at Toulouse hospital, told RTL radio: “Anti-inflammatory drugs increase the risk of complications when there is a fever or infection.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/anti-inflammatory-drugs-may-aggravate-coronavirus-infection

Other countries haven't verified this, but it's worth keeping in mind

[Lycra]

18 minutes ago, Suprefan said:

So you didnt notice Live Nation’s valuation went down $1.8 Billion on friday?  I know youre referring to smaller promoters but the big guys already took a huge gut punch this week. AEG isnt a publicly traded company so no idea how much was lost on their end, but had to be a bit. Saving Coachella is going to cost them, but they at least get a shot at having their event and boosting the local economy of the area its held in.

 
i had mentioned it earlier in the week as to why they wouldnt want to shut things down now and financial was one of them. Seems that theyre going to have to bit the bullet now. How many gigs are being outright canceled in the uk at the moment? Nothing is being postponed? That keeps the money with the promoter and they arent being gutted by having to refund everyone.  Thats the biggest thing here in that states right now that over 90% of gigs and tours are being postponed and not canceled. They wanna hold onto the money with pretty much a promise that the show will go on.

Interesting. I wasn't up on the Live Nation stock loss but it's not surprising. Here in the UK we've had few postponements or cancellations to date, except in the sporting world. Guess they're all awaiting government moves as these could have financial implications. Here if an event is postponed the promoter has to offer the chance of a refund and cannot just keep hold of the money.

Edited March 15, 2020 by Lycra

[Babylon sister]

19 minutes ago, Lycra said:

From what I read the private health system in America and it's lack of a public health system may well prove an Achilles heel in confronting the outbreak there.

I agree.

[MEGABOWL]

7 hours ago, Smeble said:

A vaccine will be years away. This is a completely new disease, even if they find one it still has to be tested, that takes years.

Testing a Vaccine is just a question of Resource and this is one that will have a lot thrown at it on a worldwide basis. Winter 2021 at the very latest, maybe even less than 12 months away.

 

Source : friend who works in related field

[oneeye]

BBC News - Coronavirus: Isolation for over-70s 'within weeks'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51895873

Confirmation on what's already been mooted; make plans pop pickers, make plans 

Edited March 15, 2020 by oneeye

[MEGABOWL]

 

8 hours ago, Matt42 said:

It’l never happen here. This is a China problem

It will never happen here. This is a South Korea problem.

It will never happen here. This is an Italy problem.

It will never happen here. This is a Spain problem.

The thing that irks me the most is that throughout this whole pandemic British society has considered itself somewhat immune from the measures taken in other countries. You’re a doomsayer if you want to talk about something difficult or challenging. I know social media is tough right now but people are concerned, their concerns are valid, and they are allowed to talk about them. 
 

Today my grandmas care home has closed its doors until further notice. She’s a frail older woman with terminal illnesses. There’s no guarantee I will see her again, especially if this goes on for months.

Both of my parents are in a high risk group.

My sister is a pregnant woman in America with no health insurance.

I am sick to death of people with valid legitimate concerns being considered overdramatic and doomsayer for simply discussing the reality of the situation. I wish wish wish I could live in La La Land. It sounds great.

Who said these things? Everybody on this thread and everywhere else is discussing nothing else. I have no idea who you think is 'putting their head in the sand'. However, you aren't at the 'realist' point on the scale, you're at the 'hysterical' point, which is going to help nobody. If you want to show how your generation can cope, develop some stoicism, deal with things as they happen and stop squealing at those who want to display the positive mindset we are *all* going to need over the next few weeks.

[stopwn1981]

Coronavirus: Isolation for over-70s 'within weeks' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51895873
 

while the rest of us get it and hope for the best.

[MEGABOWL]

8 minutes ago, oneeye said:

BBC News - Coronavirus: Isolation for over-70s 'within weeks'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51895873

Confirmation on what's already been muted; make plans pop pickers, make plans 

There should be nothing surprising here. The Government is entirely sticking to their plans. Isolate the vulnerable and get the economy moving ASAP, with the acceptance some people will get ill and some will die.

[steviewevie]

Looks like govt going to start announcing the more drastic stuff this week. Problem for Glastonbury is no one know how long this is going to last for...but looks like will be at the very least a few months.

Below a good explanation of why looking at least 18 months before a vaccine available.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/when-will-a-coronavirus-vaccine-be-ready-human-trials-global-immunisation

[Mr Boo]

According to BBC news, in the next few weeks the Government will be asking people over 70 years old to self-isolate for up to 4 months.

4 months 🙁

[squirrelarmy]

Anyone in high risk groups, don’t wait for the government announcement to self isolate, do it now. 
 

However for the rest of us:

 

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

For anybody interested an articles vaccines: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-12/why-does-it-take-so-long-to-make-a-coronavirus-vaccine%3f_amp=true

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Mr Boo said:

According to BBC news, in the next few weeks the Government will be asking people over 70 years old to self-isolate for up to 4 months.

4 months 🙁

Yeah, exactly. So many of those elderly are in care homes, or cared for by family members, or in hospital already. This is going to be a nightmare for a lot of people.