Will Coronavirus lead to the cancellation of Glastonbury?

[Charlie Rabbit]

In some ways a postponement to September might be quite fitting ... after all, the actual 50th anniversary of the first festival falls on the weekend of 19 September.

(just saying ... not a troll ... I’ve got a ticket and want a Sunny JUNE Glasto as much as everybody else 😎)

Edited March 13, 2020 by Charlie Rabbit

[northernringo]

Not going to do the full update today as the John Hopkins site seems to have updated for some countries but not all (looks like about 50% have been updated). My own scraper will hopefully be up and running by Monday.

Some brief points:

• Anywhere that did update in East Asia saw small increases again, except Hong Kong which was down again. Japan, Singapore and South Korea haven't updated their figures. China's numbers have dropped again by a decent amount.
• In the Middle East, again quite a few countries don't seem to have been updated. A small increase for UAE. 1,000 new cases for Iran.
• In Africa, Algeria started announcing their first recoveries so down a bit. Gabon, Kenya and Ghana announced their first cases. All in all not much change and no major outbreak in Africa yet.
• In Europe, Sweden is up another 100 and Norway is up just under 100. Germany up by 1,000. France by around 600. Spain by 1,500. Italy by 2,500. Netherlands by 100. Switzerland up 200. Denmark up 250. These numbers are pretty terrifying. Things will continue to get worse it seems.
• Very little change in Central America and South America
• Jump of around 400 in USA. No new figures for Canada
• India and Russia up slightly. No change for New Zealand. No new figures for Australia.

All in all, things are getting much worse in Europe and look like they will continue to do so. No sign of Italy and Iran peaking which is worrying.

Yesterday was the first day I was now more confident that Glastonbury will be cancelled than I was that it wouldn't be unfortunately. Not a foregone conclusion though by any means.

[Barney McGrew]

18 minutes ago, Havors said:

Such as?? 

Stewards, medics, coppers, security, sanitation, etc, possible extra sanitation requirements or extra medical support, who knows.... if the festival can't tick all the boxes what happens?

Edited March 13, 2020 by Barney McGrew

[26yearsofGlasto]

9 minutes ago, Havors said:

Defo a troll account......... 

sorry thats not fair, im a Glastonbury lover and I rarely miss but i think if you are going to post on here you should say something honest to add to the debate....many people who havent been wont realise just how massive an undertaking it is......Emily is burying her head in the sand (love her though I do)

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, Barney McGrew said:

Stewards, medics, coppers security, sanitation, etc, possible extra sanitation requirements or extra medical support, who knows.... if the festival can't tick all the boxes what happens?

You could say that about the festival every year..... I cant imagine there would be a problem they cant rectify  as long as there is nothing stopping them by decree. Unless the whole somerset police force go down with it at the same time as the festival?  

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, Breeze said:

OK but that is not part of the currently announced strategy. There is no restriction on visiting care homes, no self isolation for smokers, diabetics, the pregnant, etc. etc.

Those with health conditions have been advised to take extra care. 

And it is part of the currently announced strategy, if you join up the dots. They've talked about 'herd immunity', and they've talked about trying to get the peak demand on the NHS out of the way before the autumn. 

There's a lot of stuff they're not saying outright, they're playing a PR game to nudge people's expectations to the right sort of place so that we're mentally in the right place when that time comes. People can't handle the truth.  

[Barney McGrew]

Just now, Havors said:

You could say that about the festival every year..... I cant imagine there would be a problem they cant rectify  as long as there is nothing stopping them by decree. Unless the whole somerset police force go down with it at the same time as the festival?  

This year is unlike any other year.

[Havors]

4 minutes ago, 26yearsofGlasto said:

sorry thats not fair, im a Glastonbury lover and I rarely miss but i think if you are going to post on here you should say something honest to add to the debate....many people who havent been wont realise just how massive an undertaking it is......Emily is burying her head in the sand (love her though I do)

How does telling us the absolute that it will be postponed add to the debate? Nevermind the strange assumption you have that Eavis can just do the festival whenever they want.... they really cant. 

[Havors]

1 minute ago, Barney McGrew said:

This year is unlike any other year.

Haha that is quite true. 

[eFestivals]

10 minutes ago, northernringo said:

No sign of Italy and Iran peaking which is worrying.

apparently, Italy has peaked in the first areas to be locked down - and that's being taken as a hopeful sign.

[Homer]

17 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

I was chatting to a mate last night who isn’t going and she jokingly said she hopes it gets cancelled. 
 

There’s a definite negative vibe from the ticketless. 

I've been wondering for a while if those who are saying it will have bought a festival ticket, flight, etc in the last few weeks.

[squirrelarmy]

3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

And it is part of the currently announced strategy, if you join up the dots. They've talked about 'herd immunity', and they've talked about trying to get the peak demand on the NHS out of the way before the autumn. 

Another key point not mentioned, if we think it’s bad now then be prepared for an even worse outbreak at the end of the year. 
 

The second wave of the Spanish Flu in 1919 was the most deadly. We definitely want to be trying to catch it while it’s warmer so less people are at risk in the winter months. 

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, Havors said:

You could say that about the festival every year..... I cant imagine there would be a problem they cant rectify  as long as there is nothing stopping them by decree. Unless the whole somerset police force go down with it at the same time as the festival?  

its not impossible that the old bill will withdraw from policing it. That would put the licence in an iffy situation.

In theory it can be 'policed' by private security, but I think the licence would have to be amended for that to happen and the council might not be too keen for no old bill. Also, getting enough private security might be an issue in a time when plenty might be going off sick.

 

[26yearsofGlasto]

4 minutes ago, Havors said:

How does telling us the absolute that it will be postponed add to the debate? Nevermind the strange assumption you have that Eavis can just do the festival whenever they want.... they really cant. 

You are very angry. I will leave you to it.

[northernringo]

3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

apparently, Italy has peaked in the first areas to be locked down - and that's being taken as a hopeful sign.

Yea, I mentioned that a couple of days ago in my update. Good news of course but for the country as a whole it might be some time before it hits its peak. 

[eFestivals]

Just now, northernringo said:

Yea, I mentioned that a couple of days ago in my update. Good news of course but for the country as a whole it might be some time before it hits its peak. 

yup, the numbers suggest infection is 4+ times the reported number.  

[Breeze]

42 minutes ago, Pipine said:

Yes, I said in a previous post I don’t understand why the government isn’t asking those at risk groups to self isolate now, I’ve asked my parents to because they’re both recovering from cancer and have other health issues.  I get the main message of the CMO but don’t understand the lack of protection for at risk groups atm.. telling them to avoid cruises is not enough!

Agreed. The announcements yesterday could have been written on a fag packet. It seems far too lightweight.

This guy (Prof John Ashton, a former regional director of public health for north-west England) is not a happy camper: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/health-expert-brands-uks-coronavirus-response-pathetic 

Some of the points he makes about mobilising the community so they can help (e.g.) older folk self isolate (shopping for them etc.) makes a lot of sense.

[Havors]

14 minutes ago, 26yearsofGlasto said:

You are very angry. I will leave you to it.

There you go with the assumptions again. No anger here darling  

[Breeze]

34 minutes ago, Barney McGrew said:

I'm not so sure, even if the infections 'peak' before the festival we'll still likely be near the crest even if on a downward trajectory, the festival has a raft of requirements to meet to fulfil it's licensing obligations (and potentially additional measures), the government doesn't have to stop it but circumstances may nonetheless.

It will also mean a lot of the folk working at the festival are ill if it is near peak across summer if that is the case. Obviously what affects the population will affect those building and staffing the festival.

[Joshuwarr]

Expert is taking questions at half past on Sky news if you wanted to put anything to him on Twitter using the #AskSkyNews hashtag

 

[Breeze]

36 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

It is though, it’s pretty much the guidance they’ve given. 

They've recommended old folk, diabetics, smokers and pregnant people to self-isolate? Was this today?

[Homer]

4 minutes ago, Breeze said:

It will also mean a lot of the folk working at the festival are ill if it is near peak across summer if that is the case. Obviously what affects the population will affect those building and staffing the festival.

What if they get ill at short notice in the run up? What about punters who get ill and can't attend?

[Havors]

4 minutes ago, Breeze said:

It will also mean a lot of the folk working at the festival are ill if it is near peak across summer if that is the case. Obviously what affects the population will affect those building and staffing the festival.

Does it though? There is a what...? 60 million population and we expect the peak to be what?? 15k people.... the chances of a lot of glasto workers being sick is pretty low

[MEGABOWL]

The Government has got the messaging wrong. What they asked people to do yesterday is actually huge. Asking anybody with a simple fever to stay at home for a week is massive. But-I guess because they don’t want to cause panic-they played it down way too much. 

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, Breeze said:

They've recommended old folk, diabetics, smokers and pregnant people to self-isolate? Was this today?

they've been saying for a while that those most at risk need to take extra precautions. It might not be as clear as it could be, but I guess they're trying to manage things so there's no panic, etc.

My 80+ year old mother is certainly well aware that she's in a higher risk group, and is thinking about the choices she makes on where she goes that might put her at risk of infection.