Will Coronavirus lead to the cancellation of Glastonbury?

[26yearsofGlasto]

It will definitely get postponed. Even the money-grabbing football authorities are doing that now. One positive thing is that Worthy farm belongs to the Eavis family, so they can hold the Festival whenever they want, though not necessarily at the same scale.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

16 minutes ago, Breeze said:

Understood but if you are in a risk group because you are diabetic, immuno-compromised, have blood disorders, endochrine disorders, are pregnant, over 50, asthmatic, are a smoker etc. etc. etc. then you may not agree with that approach. Unless those people are firewalled somehow from the rest of the population while they get a mild infection (most of them - even some not in those groups get a serious condition)?

But it’s the wider healthier population that will give it to them one way or the other anyway. So if the wider healthier population get it en mass now and build up an immunity, then the vulnerable people will be at much lower risk of getting it later on down the line. 

Edited March 13, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[Breeze]

38 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

As far as I'm aware two "strains" have been identified - one is more deadly*, but less contagious and the other is more contagious, but less deadly*. 

*This link has some information, which says that my statement above about the relative deadliness is unconfirmed, but is it just over a week old, so I'm not sure if I'm working off newer information (I read and watch so much, it's hard to keep track of it all)

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/

Increased deadliness as described here between 'strains' seems to be ability to infect not severity of illness differences. Also idea of two distinct strains seems to be disputed.

Quote

“In all practical terms, the virus is as it was when it originally emerged,” says Jones. “There’s no evidence it is getting any worse.” The sentiment is echoed by the World Health Organization. The study by Tang and colleagues only suggests there is some genetic diversity of the virus – it doesn’t mean it is changing, a representative told New Scientist.

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/#ixzz6GZFaFgh7

 

[Havors]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

how do we know Italian and UK infections started about same time...all we can really go off is death rate.

Anyway, whatever it is, we are following same curve as other countries...except those like S Korea and Japan...and we're being told to wash hands.

Erm..... by seeing what dates the first infections where recorded??  

[Joshuwarr]

1 minute ago, 26yearsofGlasto said:

It will definitely get postponed. Even the money-grabbing football authorities are doing that now. One positive thing is that Worthy farm belongs to the Eavis family, so they can hold the Festival whenever they want, though not necessarily at the same scale.

I just can't foresee them holding a scaled down event just on the land they own. They would also need permission from the local authority for a license to hold on a different day, as well as collaborate with local services.

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, 26yearsofGlasto said:

It will definitely get postponed. Even the money-grabbing football authorities are doing that now. One positive thing is that Worthy farm belongs to the Eavis family, so they can hold the Festival whenever they want, though not necessarily at the same scale.

Defo a troll account......... 

[Breeze]

Just now, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

But it’s the wider healthier population that will give it to them one way or the other anyway. So if the wider healthier population get it en mass now, then they will be at much lower risk of getting it later on down the line. 

How does the 'wider healthier population' get it now without giving it also to vulnerable people wholesale? Maybe the govt. has a strategy for that but I do not see it.

[eFestivals]

Just now, Havors said:

Erm..... by seeing what dates the first infections where recorded??  

the first italian recorded cases were (essentially) deaths - which meant it was out there for 2+ weeks undetected before those deaths.

The numbers suggest it happened very differently in the UK.

[Breeze]

37 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I'm feeling more positive about it today than I was yesterday. I can see it going ahead with something like a "not advised for the over-60s or those with health issues" warning.

As mentioned above, it's beneficial to have the virus infect younger people as a way of keeping it away from older people. Festivals are a way that might actually help the govt with what they're aiming at.

Glasto as Coronavirus Party is a new one. Sadly will have to leave the entire family at home as they are in various risk groups lol

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Just now, Breeze said:

How does the 'wider healthier population' get it now without giving it also to vulnerable people wholesale? Maybe the govt. has a strategy for that but I do not see it.

You’re taking what I’m saying out of context against what the person I was quoting was saying.

My point was if the vulnerable people can ‘firewall themselves’ now then this approach will be far better for them in the long run.

Or it’s better that remain continually vulnerable to it?

[grilladelphia]

just reading through twitter, wonder if all the people saying 'its not gonna happen' even have tickets...

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, Breeze said:

How does the 'wider healthier population' get it now without giving it also to vulnerable people wholesale? Maybe the govt. has a strategy for that but I do not see it.

the vulnerable people keep isolated while the healthy get infected.

Then, afterwards, there's few people the vulnerable can meet who have the chance of infecting them, because there's few carriers.

Otherwise they'd meet many more carriers over a much longer time.

[Breeze]

2 minutes ago, Havors said:

Defo a troll account......... 

I agree with them, sadly. I've been on here since 2002. I did set it up to troll on COVID-19 though 😉

[stuie]

6 minutes ago, 26yearsofGlasto said:

It will definitely get postponed. Even the money-grabbing football authorities are doing that now. One positive thing is that Worthy farm belongs to the Eavis family, so they can hold the Festival whenever they want, though not necessarily at the same scale.

No they can't.

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, Havors said:

Erm..... by seeing what dates the first infections where recorded??  

but not all infections recorded. You only know you have a problem when people start getting really ill and/or dying.
We probably have 1000s of infected here now.

[squirrelarmy]

Just now, grilladelphia said:

just reading through twitter, wonder if all the people saying 'its not gonna happen' even have tickets...

I was chatting to a mate last night who isn’t going and she jokingly said she hopes it gets cancelled. 
 

There’s a definite negative vibe from the ticketless. 

[Breeze]

Just now, eFestivals said:

the vulnerable people keep isolated while the healthy get infected.

Then, afterwards, there's few people the vulnerable can meet who have the chance of infecting them, because there's few carriers.

Otherwise they'd meet many more carriers over a much longer time.

OK but that is not part of the currently announced strategy. There is no restriction on visiting care homes, no self isolation for smokers, diabetics, the pregnant, etc. etc.

[Barney McGrew]

22 minutes ago, Havors said:

It is completely at the mercy of the Government..... and when or if they ban mass gatherings. It is likely they may do at some point... so its just about timing. As far as we are concerned with wanting the festival to happen, the sooner they do it the better so its not in place in June. 

I'm not so sure, even if the infections 'peak' before the festival we'll still likely be near the crest even if on a downward trajectory, the festival has a raft of requirements to meet to fulfil it's licensing obligations (and potentially additional measures), the government doesn't have to stop it but circumstances may nonetheless.

Edited March 13, 2020 by Barney McGrew

[Havors]

4 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

the first italian recorded cases were (essentially) deaths - which meant it was out there for 2+ weeks undetected before those deaths.

The numbers suggest it happened very differently in the UK.

Still gives you a time line..... 

[Ayrshire Chris]

15 minutes ago, oneeye said:

An interesting listen as to how we could manage moving forward.

 

Very true

have your 1000th upvote! 

Edited March 13, 2020 by Ayrshire Chris

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

Just now, Breeze said:

OK but that is not part of the currently announced strategy. There is no restriction on visiting care homes, no self isolation for smokers, diabetics, the pregnant, etc. etc.

It is though, it’s pretty much the guidance they’ve given. 

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, Breeze said:

Glasto as Coronavirus Party is a new one.

That's one way of describing it.  

But as a strategy it does make sense. A containment strategy only works if it's possible to contain - and it no longer is.

The vulnerable can be at high risk forever, or they can be at high risk for a short time. One of those strategies is clearly better.

Whether the govt are able to pull it off is another thing, but we do know that successful containment isn't possible - so another strategy makes sense.

Edited March 13, 2020 by eFestivals

[Havors]

Just now, Barney McGrew said:

I'm not so sure, even if the infections 'peak' before the festival we'll still likely be near the crest even if on a downward trajectory, the festival has a raft of obligations to meet to fulfil it's licensing obligations (and potentially additional measures), the government doesn't have to stop it but circumstances may nonetheless.

Such as?? 

[thrillhouse188]

 

[oneeye]

1 minute ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

Very true

have your 1000th like! 

Beauty, only taken me 11 years 😄 thanks AC