Will Coronavirus lead to the cancellation of Glastonbury?

[FakeEmpire]

It's all pissing in the wind, isn't it?  

I'm inclined to believe the science.   I am typically very anti-tory but, in their defence, they have stood back and let the scientists speak.  Every decision made has been backed up with a well-reasoned scientific argument.

Who am I to say if the science is right or not but all we can do at this point is trust in the Chief Medical Officer, wash our hands, take extra care with contact, keep an eye on our older loved ones.   Use some common sense, self isolate if you show symptoms or are at risk.

Re Glastonbury, I do still feel slightly positive this morning.   The government do seem focused on trying to keep the economy moving and maintain that banning gatherings above an arbitrary number of attendees isn't as worthwhile as some people believe.

 

Edited March 13, 2020 by FakeEmpire

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, squirrelarmy said:

Precisely why lock downs won’t work. You might free your country of the virus in the short term but unless every country is taking the same steps you’re leaving yourself open to reinfection. 

The point is, there are different opinions on this, presumably involving people far more well informed than any of us.

3 minutes ago, Tuna said:

Most governments are taking pretty similar measures, besides ours? But ok

I'll give you that - we're an outlier.  But every country is doing thing slightly differently, even if we're currently more different than most.

[oneeye]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I only wanted to do a poll for a couple of days!  But Neil chose this one to live over the others.  😄

That'll learn yer 😄

[Pipine]

1 minute ago, ModernMan said:

I think they did say that yesterday didn’t they about at risk groups?

I thought they said older people shouldn't go on cruises and hinted that self isolation for at risk groups would be advisable soon?  I might've misunderstood.

[MetaKate]

Is this thread pinned to the top or something? The poster just came out last night, dont you have clashes to worry about now?

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, MetaKate said:

Is this thread pinned to the top or something? The poster just came out last night, dont you have clashes to worry about now?

Probably not

EDIT: Sorry for being so full of doom.  I think I should close this browser tab... for 10 minutes at least!  

Edited March 13, 2020 by stuartbert two hats

[Ayrshire Chris]

3 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I only wanted to do a poll for a couple of days!  But Neil chose this one to live over the others.  😄

You have the accolade of being the official super spreader 😁

[Garrett_Salas]

Just now, squirrelarmy said:

Precisely why lock downs won’t work. You might free your country of the virus in the short term but unless every country is taking the same steps you’re leaving yourself open to reinfection. 

but i don't think lockdowns aim to kill the virus. the reason italy had to go into lockdown is because the virus was spreading at such a rate that the health services had already began to become overwhelmed, they weren't prepared and missed critical junctures. Again, flatten the curve is undisputed, there is just debate about how to achieve it.

[ModernMan]

1 minute ago, Pipine said:

I thought they said older people shouldn't go on cruises and hinted that self isolation for at risk groups would be advisable soon?  I might've misunderstood.

Maybe you’re right actually. I think I just took it to mean at risk groups should self isolate anyway.

[eFestivals]

30 minutes ago, Tuna said:

If you want to control the number of infections currently in the country, the spread has to be controlled regardless, surely?

but that's what the govt is attempting to do. It doesn't mean they're not just because they're not doing it in your preferred way. If they're able to keep the concurrent cases to what the NHS can handle, they'll have essentially nailed it. 

And within that consideration is the NHS at all times of year - so they (essentially) need to max-out the infections thru the summer to create as much immunity as they can before the winter.

It might seem odd to be wanting infections, but the infections are going to happen anyway - so manipulating how they happen is the best anyone can do.

[squirrelarmy]

3 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

The point is, there are different opinions on this, presumably involving people far more well informed than any of us.

I play this on a regular basis. I’m a certified expert 😂

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

but that's what the govt is attempting to do. It doesn't mean they're not just because they're not doing it in your preferred way. If they're able to keep the concurrent cases to what the NHS can handle, they'll have essentially nailed it. 

And within that consideration is the NHS at all times of year - so they (essentially) need to max-out the infections thru the summer to create as much immunity as they can before the winter.

It might seem odd to be wanting infections, but the infections are going to happen anyway - so manipulating how they happen is the best anyone can do.

Out of curiosity, how would you answer the poll question above?

[Breeze]

8 minutes ago, Pipine said:

I work in the public health team at a local authority and our director of public health is fully supportive of the CMOs approach..  initially I was in the "lock everything down now" camp but I can see the logic of the more measured approach.. it is weird though to see other public health officials disagree with the CMO, its obviously not an easy decision to make... time will tell who was right.

Most senior medical managers will be fully supportive. Maintaining a united front and not causing confusion is critical for the NHS, so it will be their default position. If they have concerns they will raise privately upward through the organisation. 

Those breaking ranks are whistleblowers doing so out of desperation and because they disagree vehemently. Their career may well be impacted. There will be others that think that but say nothing.

[Tuna]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

but that's what the govt is attempting to do. It doesn't mean they're not just because they're not doing it in your preferred way. If they're able to keep the concurrent cases to what the NHS can handle, they'll have essentially nailed it. 

And within that consideration is the NHS at all times of year - so they (essentially) need to max-out the infections thru the summer to create as much immunity as they can before the winter.

It might seem odd to be wanting infections, but the infections are going to happen anyway - so manipulating how they happen is the best anyone can do.

I don't have a "preferred way". I just don't see the 'measures' the government are currently advocating as doing that. Time will tell, we just have to hope very much that they work. (And importantly, if they don't, to actually be willing to change their approach and not double down.)

[The Red Telephone]

https://youtu.be/wa43FNUdpU8

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

13 minutes ago, Breeze said:

I agree our competence is not up to their level (once they started taking measures) and they have been here before with SARS so know exactly what to do, but OK take a pick, Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea - Same point stands. We are doing less than all of them. Why? It isn't 'flattening the curve'. You do that by getting ahead of it, not by letting it crack on in the population until growth is out of control.  

The fact is the Tories would never take the hit China has been prepared to take on the economy and the Chinese economy was already in recession due to the US trade war. They know from their experience with SARS that it can be defeated and that the hit on their economy will be much, much worse and much longer if they don't deal with it. The Tories are gambling that everything will work out OK. With peoples lives. The Tories aren't prepared to take the hit to the economy that practically any other European country is prepared to take. I wonder why our government medical advisors are different to everyone else's on earth? Uk exceptionalism? To be expected of Brexiters, I guess.

The Tories will change tack very soon as the pressure will become unbearable. It will be framed as the 'next stage' of the delay plan to save face. Their current story does not stack up and flies in the face of epidemiological advice from around the world. We're doing way less than Trump who is in utter denial FGS.

It has nothing to do with competence, we do not have anywhere near the resources or capability to do what China have done. Not to mention all China are doing is suppressing it, the virus is still there and as soon as they lift their measures it will spread again.

We cannot eradicate the virus now, that is impossible.

We could do as China are doing and suppress it, but this would be temporary and it would spread again the moment the measures are lifted.

All we can do is control the speed it spreads, and try to balance the strain on the health service, the economy and making sure it doesn’t spill into next winter all together as best as possible. As it stands I think we are doing that quite well at the moment 

The Trump comparison is a nonsense, tell me honestly where you’d rather be a citizen right now, the U.K. or the US?

Edited March 13, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[Ayrshire Chris]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

but that's what the govt is attempting to do. It doesn't mean they're not just because they're not doing it in your preferred way. If they're able to keep the concurrent cases to what the NHS can handle, they'll have essentially nailed it. 

And within that consideration is the NHS at all times of year - so they (essentially) need to max-out the infections thru the summer to create as much immunity as they can before the winter.

It might seem odd to be wanting infections, but the infections are going to happen anyway - so manipulating how they happen is the best anyone can do.

I mentioned on another thread the quaint habit that existed when I was a youngster, the chicken pox party where the infection was deliberately spread amongst kids. As it’s usually mild in kids it was better to get immunity young. Sadly I didn’t get it, which meant as an adult working with kids I caught it and it was a right bastard.! 

[Breeze]

11 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

What a load of shite.  Such unwarranted confidence in a situation that has governments around the world all taking different approaches.

Precautionary principle would seem to make sense? Our government is a complete outlier Vs other governments of major economies. Fine if there is logic to it, but it has not been explained transparently. Unwarranted confidence in our government?

[eFestivals]

9 minutes ago, Breeze said:

I agree our competence is not up to their level (once they started taking measures) and they have been here before with SARS so know exactly what to do, but OK take a pick, Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea - Same point stands. We are doing less than all of them. Why? It isn't 'flattening the curve'. You do that by getting ahead of it, not by letting it crack on in the population until growth is out of control. 

you might as well allow the first bit to ramp up. It's where the peak is that matters.

I'm not saying the govt is definitely doing it right but I don't think (right now) they can definitely be called out for doing it wrong either.

If you do the lock-down thing, that means a lock-down forever because there'll always be a risk of the virus breaking into that locked-down place. It's not a long-term solution.

[uscore]

22 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Fuck's sake the absolutes on this thread.  It's just like Brexit.

basic psychology innit.  Uncertainty is scary.  Far more comforting to believe in absolutes.  Read a couple of online articles and be convinced one way or another, and then at least you can make plans and stuff.

Edited March 13, 2020 by uscore

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

2 minutes ago, Ayrshire Chris said:

I mentioned on another thread the quaint habit that existed when I was a youngster, the chicken pox party where the infection was deliberately spread amongst kids. As it’s usually mild in kids it was better to get immunity young. Sadly I didn’t get it, which meant as an adult working with kids I caught it and it was a right bastard.! 

I remember those, I was subject to one as I think I somehow missed a couple of rounds of it so my parents were desperate for me to get it.

You just never know... based on all their modelling Glastonbury may just be an event amongst others that they actually would rather went ahead to help the virus spread at a certain speed 

[northernringo]

35 minutes ago, Dronx said:

Will the UK stopping testing people not in hospital totally invalidate UK figures?

 

Really find your posts informative 

Testing disparity across nations will really impact figures so the value from my updates probably isn't what it was at the start. For the UK only figures though we can see how many daily tests return positive which should give us some insight.

[Pipine]

6 minutes ago, Breeze said:

Most senior medical managers will be fully supportive. Maintaining a united front and not causing confusion is critical for the NHS, so it will be their default position. If they have concerns they will raise privately upward through the organisation. 

Those breaking ranks are whistleblowers doing so out of desperation and because they disagree vehemently. Their career may well be impacted. There will be others that think that but say nothing.

I actually think he does fully support it, I talked it through with the epidemiologists in the team and they agree its the right approach, we need to use the more extreme measures when they'll be most effective, they can't be maintained for long and also we need the majority of the population to get the mild version of the illness so we're not just storing it up for episode two at a later date.  

[The Nal]

13 minutes ago, MetaKate said:

Is this thread pinned to the top or something? The poster just came out last night, dont you have clashes to worry about now?

Agree yeah. People should be wondering what to do when Diana Ross inevitably cancels. 

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

you might as well allow the first bit to ramp up. It's where the peak is that matters.

I'm not saying the govt is definitely doing it right but I don't think (right now) they can definitely be called out for doing it wrong either.

If you do the lock-down thing, that means a lock-down forever because there'll always be a risk of the virus breaking into that locked-down place. It's not a long-term solution.

They want to delay and slow it...at moment it is following same path as Italy.

I expect they will start introducing more radical social distancing stuff in coming weeks.

Worst of it could be May/June...I'd give Glastonbury 50/50 at moment.