Will Coronavirus lead to the cancellation of Glastonbury?

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

4 minutes ago, Tuna said:

Forever isn't the relevant timescale, it's the length of time needed to create a vaccine (which is estimated to be on the order of a year).

If you want to control the number of infections currently in the country, the spread has to be controlled regardless, surely? Say you take about 50% of the UK population who are not the "at risk" groups, let's call that 30 million. Let them get ill in the space of a month. Let's say 0.1% of people have to be hospitalised, which is not beyond comprehension. That's 300,000 extra people on the NHS, which would be much easier to manage over a long period of time.

But equally you need to balance how that 300k is spread against keeping the economy going and also making sure it doesn’t run into next winter. It’s not all going to happen in the next month, they’re saying the peak will be 10-14 weeks and then after that it won’t just disappear, we will be getting new cases every day but at a declining rate.

Edited March 13, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[Tuna]

Right, and that's exactly my point, the government has seemingly calculated that the number of cases by taking this in a much more head on approach than other countries is 'worth it' by the measure of economics.  

[Breeze]

6 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Alternatively, how do you keep half the population away from it forever?

You mean like China whose cases are flattening out right now and have kept 99.4% of their population away from, it?

Like the way SARS was beaten? 

Bit defeatist to give in to half the population getting it, no? Mind you that does mean you don't have to bother doing anything, which makes it an easy choice.

[northernringo]

Today's update will be a bit later today, John Hopkins yet to update their figures this morning

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

1 minute ago, Breeze said:

You mean like China whose cases are flattening out right now and have kept 99.4% of their population away from, it?

Like the way SARS was beaten? 

Bit defeatist to give in to half the population getting it, no? Mind you that does mean you don't have to bother doing anything, which makes it an easy choice.

How many times... China cannot be used as an example of how to deal with the virus 

[Dronx]

Just now, northernringo said:

Today's update will be a bit later today, John Hopkins yet to update their figures this morning

Will the UK stopping testing people not in hospital totally invalidate UK figures?

 

Really find your posts informative 

[squirrelarmy]

4 minutes ago, Breeze said:

You mean like China whose cases are flattening out right now and have kept 99.4% of their population away from, it?

Like the way SARS was beaten? 

Bit defeatist to give in to half the population getting it, no? Mind you that does mean you don't have to bother doing anything, which makes it an easy choice.

What works in one country doesn’t work for others. 
 

China managed to contain the virus to a few regions and they locked those areas down and used the rest of the country to keep things going. 
 

We can’t do the same here and how do you think our people would react to being locked in their houses with the army on the streets. 

Edited March 13, 2020 by squirrelarmy

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

3 minutes ago, Tuna said:

Right, and that's exactly my point, the government has seemingly calculated that the number of cases by taking this in a much more head on approach than other countries is 'worth it' by the measure of economics.  

Well that and the fact they want it to pass through within a certain period so that it doesn’t run into winter 

[Lycra]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

 

I've probably not woken up yet, but could you expand on why the highlighted phrase undermines Nobby's argument?  BTW, are virus models inherently less chaotic than weather systems in your opinion? 

Any model is the product of 2 things, viz: data and computation. Any changes made to the data input or the computation gives a new result. Thus the result of any single model is unique. Combining numerous models and using probability tests enables a prediction to be made.

The phrase "all the new data you’re getting every day" means a change in the model and hence the overall predicted outcome. This may reinforce the previous results or undermine it. People think science is exact. It's not. It's all about probabilities.

 

[Breeze]

2 minutes ago, Tuna said:

Right, and that's exactly my point, the government has seemingly calculated that the number of cases by taking this in a much more head on approach than other countries is 'worth it' by the measure of economics.  

In that sense they are practically on their own in the global community. Best to have complete faith in Boris, he is very trustworthy.  

This from Newsnight last night. Scotland has banned events of over 500 people for the time being - The UK line is UK-govt. strategy.

 

[I am Jon]

10 minutes ago, Breeze said:

You mean like China whose cases are flattening out right now and have kept 99.4% of their population away from, it?

Like the way SARS was beaten? 

Bit defeatist to give in to half the population getting it, no? Mind you that does mean you don't have to bother doing anything, which makes it an easy choice.

With extreme measures this was possible when it was just in Asia. The problem is now it's a pandemic even if China, South Korea etc. managed to completely eradicate it (unlikely) they risk been reinfected from other countries as soon as they start lifting the lock-downs. 

Edited March 13, 2020 by I am Jon

[Tuna]

Just now, Breeze said:

In that sense they are practically on their own in the global community. Best to have complete faith in Boris, he is very trustworthy.  

Exactly. We just must have way better scientists than every other country.

[jimmillen]

1 minute ago, Tuna said:

Exactly. We just must have way better scientists than every other country.

Or alternatively, other countries are being more swayed by public pressure to be seen to be doing something - regardless of its scientific merit. 

I’m not saying that’s correct - we’ll only know the outcomes in a few months time. I hope for our country’s sake it’s the right call!

[squirrelarmy]

The only way a lock down will be ultimately successful is if the whole world stopped and locked everyone down for the next few weeks and wait for the virus to burn itself out. Otherwise any country that hasn’t locked itself down can reinfect those countries free of the virus. 
 

It’s impossible to do such a thing and the amount of deaths worldwide would be colossal. It would lead to a massive break down in social order plus a whole other set of issues would arise. 

Riding it out and taking it on the chin is unfortunately the only feasible course of action. 

[stuartbert two hats]

Fuck's sake the absolutes on this thread.  It's just like Brexit.

[Tuna]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Fuck's sake the absolutes on this thread.  It's just like Brexit.

Hey, I did some back of the envelope calculations!!

[Pipine]

I work in the public health team at a local authority and our director of public health is fully supportive of the CMOs approach..  initially I was in the "lock everything down now" camp but I can see the logic of the more measured approach.. it is weird though to see other public health officials disagree with the CMO, its obviously not an easy decision to make... time will tell who was right.

I still think there should be some advice to at risk groups to self isolate however and I'm making sure my immuno-suppressed parents can stay home by covering their childcare responsibilities..  I can't remember which country it was but one EU country was keeping schools open etc but telling older people to self isolate and banning large gatherings.. that seemed like the sensible balance to me.

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, Tuna said:

Hey, I did some back of the envelope calculations!!

It's obvious that the only way... source - just logic and common sense.  Basic maths, there's no other way...

 

What a load of shite.  Such unwarranted confidence in a situation that has governments around the world all taking different approaches.

[oneeye]

4 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Fuck's sake the absolutes on this thread.  It's just like Brexit.

You started it, the thread that is 😂😂

[Breeze]

4 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

How many times... China cannot be used as an example of how to deal with the virus 

I agree our competence is not up to their level (once they started taking measures) and they have been here before with SARS so know exactly what to do, but OK take a pick, Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea - Same point stands. We are doing less than all of them. Why? It isn't 'flattening the curve'. You do that by getting ahead of it, not by letting it crack on in the population until growth is out of control.  

The fact is the Tories would never take the hit China has been prepared to take on the economy and the Chinese economy was already in recession due to the US trade war. They know from their experience with SARS that it can be defeated and that the hit on their economy will be much, much worse and much longer if they don't deal with it. The Tories are gambling that everything will work out OK. With peoples lives. The Tories aren't prepared to take the hit to the economy that practically any other European country is prepared to take. I wonder why our government medical advisors are different to everyone else's on earth? Uk exceptionalism? To be expected of Brexiters, I guess.

The Tories will change tack very soon as the pressure will become unbearable. It will be framed as the 'next stage' of the delay plan to save face. Their current story does not stack up and flies in the face of epidemiological advice from around the world. We're doing way less than Trump who is in utter denial FGS.

[Wooderson]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

What a load of shite.  Such unwarranted confidence in a situation that has governments around the world all taking different approaches.

100%

[Tuna]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

What a load of shite.  Such unwarranted confidence in a situation that has governments around the world all taking different approaches.

Most governments are taking pretty similar measures, besides ours? But ok

[squirrelarmy]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

What a load of shite.  Such unwarranted confidence in a situation that has governments around the world all taking different approaches.

Precisely why lock downs won’t work. You might free your country of the virus in the short term but unless every country is taking the same steps you’re leaving yourself open to reinfection. 

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, oneeye said:

You started it, the thread that is 😂😂

I only wanted to do a poll for a couple of days!  But Neil chose this one to live over the others.  😄

[ModernMan]

4 minutes ago, Pipine said:

I work in the public health team at a local authority and our director of public health is fully supportive of the CMOs approach..  initially I was in the "lock everything down now" camp but I can see the logic of the more measured approach.. it is weird though to see other public health officials disagree with the CMO, its obviously not an easy decision to make... time will tell who was right.

I still think there should be some advice to at risk groups to self isolate however and I'm making sure my immuno-suppressed parents can stay home by covering their childcare responsibilities..  I can't remember which country it was but one EU country was keeping schools open etc but telling older people to self isolate and banning large gatherings.. that seemed like the sensible balance to me.

I think they did say that yesterday didn’t they about at risk groups?