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Will Coronavirus lead to the cancellation of Glastonbury?


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What's your best guess?   

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  1. 1. Will it be cancelled?

    • I'm pretty confident/100% sure it will be cancelled
      118
    • I'm not sure, but I think it will probably be cancelled
      180
    • It could go either way, I've no idea
      242
    • I'm not sure, but I think it will probably go ahead
      288
    • I'm pretty confident/100% sure it will go ahead
      184


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1 minute ago, Wooderson said:

You slow the spread as much as you can.

within reason. 

There's fuck all point in slowing it so it peaks next winter when the NHS would be overloaded with other stuff.

Because, as I said, it can't be stopped. So it's going to have to run thru the population sooner or later.

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4 minutes ago, Wooderson said:

By that logic we should initiate martial law on french kissing. Public snogging or jail.

Cmon Neil. You slow the spread as much as you can.

But given that as there is currently no vaccination surely the herd immunity option is sensible?

Until there is a vaccination there will be flare ups of the virus all over the world.

Even once these countries taking extreme measures return to normal (or as much as they can) it only takes one person to start the spread again?

We aren't going to get to a point where no one has this virus so we have to accept it as a new normality and manage it as best as we can,

Edited by JoeyT
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2 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

This is the cold hard reality that nobody really wants to accept.

Unless you think you can conceivably lock everybody into quarantine, completely eradicate the virus and then completely stop it entering back in then it isn’t going away.

If you can’t do the above (which as it’s now a global pandemic you definitely can’t) then locking everybody down will just be a temporary respite and the virus will start to spread again once things go back to normal.

So it has to pass through the country. The only thing that can really be controlled is the speed, the speed will be controlled based on a balance between keeping the economy ticking over and the strain on the health service - in our case it won’t be absolutes of either.

nailed it

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1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

within reason. 

There's fuck all point in slowing it so it peaks next winter when the NHS would be overloaded with other stuff.

Because, as I said, it can't be stopped. So it's going to have to run thru the population sooner or later.

It cant be stopped. There you go. Snog your neighbour! 

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1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

But given that as there is currently no vaccination surely the herd immunity option is sensible?

Until there is a vaccination there will be flare ups of the virus all over the world.

Even once these countries taking extreme measures return to normal (or as much as they can) it only takes one person to start the spread again?

We aren't going to get to a point where no one has this virus so we have to accept it as a new normality and manage it as best as we can,

Your logic implies immunity once you get it. 

"Manage as best we can" is wartime triage in hospitals btw. Have a good morning.

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Just now, Wooderson said:

Your logic implies immunity once you get it. 

that's how the human body works against viruses - otherwise people wouldn't recover from the virus.

There might be a small number of people who don't get immunity from a first infection but it will be a very small percentage (if at all).

 

Just now, Wooderson said:

"Manage as best we can" is wartime triage in hospitals btw. Have a good morning.

There's manage as best we can, and then there's managing the impossible. 

Only one of those is an option.

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1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

that's how the human body works against viruses - otherwise people wouldn't recover from the virus.

There might be a small number of people who don't get immunity from a first infection but it will be a very small percentage (if at all).

 

There's manage as best we can, and then there's managing the impossible. 

Only one of those is an option.

Yeah I remember that there was a few cases that "re-contracted" the virus... but the experts say its almost certain that they had not actually recovered fully before falling ill again. So technically wasnt catching it twice. 

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1 minute ago, Havors said:

Yeah I remember that there was a few cases that "re-contracted" the virus... but the experts say its almost certain that they had not actually recovered fully before falling ill again. So technically wasnt catching it twice. 

yeah, there's a small number in China who claim they have - but it might be like you say, or it might be that one of the two was actually a different virus (I'm not sure if those people had 2 tests).

So far it's not medically confirmed that people can get it twice.

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4 minutes ago, Wooderson said:

Your logic implies immunity once you get it. 

"Manage as best we can" is wartime triage in hospitals btw. Have a good morning.

People draw parallels with covid-19 and the flu, some people get annoyed about this.

The reality is that on paper flu is probably as dangerous if not more dangerous than covid-19

The reason it isn’t as dangerous in reality is that we’ve built up years of immunity to it and we develop a vaccine every year to protect people and cover all the different mutations.

Covid-19 is now not going anywhere, it cannot be eradicated it’s a part of life like flu and the common cold, but next year it won’t be anywhere near as dangerous as this and so on and so forth.

But for that to be the case as many people as possible need to get it, ideally before next winter 

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2 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

People draw parallels with covid-19 and the flu, some people get annoyed about this.

The reality is that on paper flu is probably as dangerous if not more dangerous than covid-19

The reason it isn’t as dangerous in reality is that we’ve built up years of immunity to it and we develop a vaccine every year to protect people and cover all the different mutations.

Covid-19 is now not going anywhere, it cannot be eradicated it’s a part of life like flu and the common cold, but next year it won’t be anywhere near as dangerous as this and so on and so forth.

But for that to be the case as many people as possible need to get it, ideally before next winter 

Explained much better than I ever could.

Great post. People need to digest this.

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8 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

I’ve got absolutely no basis for this and I’m the most analytical, sensible and pragmatic individual you will ever meet, but for some weird unknown reason I think against all odds it will go ahead.

Drug jokes aside, I’ve had the best times of my life at Glastonbury, almost like out of body spiritual experiences that I’ve never had anywhere else. I honestly think that somehow the energy of the place will prevail.

 

 

I feel a bit like this too (apart from some anxiety driven dips where I worry the world is ending). I think if they leave it as long as possible to make a decision (may?) it could be alright. 
 

There’s unfortunately just a lot of hysteria at the moment. On Glastonbury’s tweets you’ve got people saying “no way it will happen” “this is irresponsible”, so I hope they don’t give in to pressure just yet. 

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34 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

yup - we're all going to to have to get covid-19. It's not going to go away, and the only thing the govt can do is try and influence its spread so the health service isn't overwhelmed.

Yep, 'herd immunity' was also discussed on Radio 4 a minute ago.

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1 minute ago, ModernMan said:

I feel a bit like this too (apart from some anxiety driven dips where I worry the world is ending). I think if they leave it as long as possible to make a decision (may?) it could be alright. 
 

There’s unfortunately just a lot of hysteria at the moment. On Glastonbury’s tweets you’ve got people saying “no way it will happen” “this is irresponsible”, so I hope they don’t give in to pressure just yet. 

I think we are totally at the mercy of when the government implement banning mass gatherings and for how long they want to sustain it for... 

I'm of the mind that the sooner they do it the sooner it will be lifted as it is not sustainable for a long period of time. Which would be better for the festival..... BUT the government give zero fucks about Glasto so they may decide to hold off the banning of large events for a while yet.  

We really are in limbo... I think its quite 50/50 right at this moment. 

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1 minute ago, Havors said:

I think we are totally at the mercy of when the government implement banning mass gatherings and for how long they want to sustain it for... 

I'm of the mind that the sooner they do it the sooner it will be lifted as it is not sustainable for a long period of time. Which would be better for the festival..... BUT the government give zero fucks about Glasto so they may decide to hold off the banning of large events for a while yet.  

We really are in limbo... I think its quite 50/50 right at this moment. 

I agree, can’t see us being in serious lockdown for more than 2-4 weeks. So if it gets to late May and we’ve still not had any big government intervention, then I’ll be seriously worried!

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3 minutes ago, Havors said:

I think we are totally at the mercy of when the government implement banning mass gatherings and for how long they want to sustain it for... 

I'm of the mind that the sooner they do it the sooner it will be lifted as it is not sustainable for a long period of time. Which would be better for the festival..... BUT the government give zero fucks about Glasto so they may decide to hold off the banning of large events for a while yet

We really are in limbo... I think its quite 50/50 right at this moment. 

I would definitely take a flip of a coin right now 

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I’ve noticed today the media are saying we are now 4 weeks behind Italy, not long ago they were saying it was 10-14 days.

Talking in these terms doesn’t help the hysteria either way though. People hear that, look at what’s going on in Italy and then go into panic amongst a clamour to lock everything down.

How far behind Italy we are is to an extent irrelevant if we are getting there at a slower pace. That doesn’t really make a good media sound bite though.

 

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43 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

In sorry but it’s absolutely nothing like the weather, not even remotely. You can model things like viruses based on all previous historical data and all the new data you’re getting every day. We know viruses grow exponentially (we'll have over 200 new cases today) and that at some point we’ll hit an inflection point when it will then die down.

The weather never has been and never will be accurate much more than a week out.

You've blown your argument apart. 

ps I'm a medical professional and part of my job involves modelling

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