Will Coronavirus lead to the cancellation of Glastonbury?

[henry bear]

1 minute ago, Gregfc15 said:

Lets acknowledge that that is absolute worst case modelling and not state it as fact yet though?

The NHS are running with a worst case scenario of 80% of the population getting infected. Say only 20% of the UK’s population of 67,000,000 contract it, with a 1% morality rate that still leaves a potential death toll of 167,000. 

[Reckoner]

4 minutes ago, henry bear said:

The NHS are running with a worst case scenario of 80% of the population getting infected. Say only 20% of the UK’s population of 67,000,000 contract it, with a 1% morality rate that still leaves a potential death toll of 167,000. 

And that would be an abolute disaster, but what makes everyone think that you are automatically going to follow the path of Italy, lose control and get to that point, and not one of the many examples of countries who have managed to get some type of control of the spread? Of course the  NHS plan for the absolute worst, that's the correct and measured way to do things, but it doesn't mean that it will be the likely result.

 

[Rubber Soldier]

1 hour ago, kalifire said:

It’s not when you pay attention to people who know what they’re talking about, by which I mean scientists and epidemiologists. 

 

1 hour ago, henry bear said:

Hopefully you’re right and the experts are wrong 

Never said anything about not paying attention to the experts. Merely pointing out that the situation today is not what it’ll be at the end of June. We might be over the peak, we might not. The whole country just needs to calm down and follow the medical guidance. Get the feeling there’s a few panic buyers in this thread. 

[Madyaker]

Our PM estimates 60% of the population will get infected, he said so in a statement on monday. People don't understand how exponential curves work....

Edited March 13, 2020 by Madyaker

[Peroni]

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-quarantine-cancellation

if we really want to delay the spread and protect the NHS, its seems like this approach would be wise.  Nicked this off Barack Obama who seems pretty same compared to current potus

[Reckoner]

41 minutes ago, Madyaker said:

People don't understand how exponential curves work....

I mean a worst case scenario used for planning purposes would use one as the basis to come up with that worst case number, but this doesn't mean that worst case number will be the actual total that occurs. The curve won't rise forever. Interventions will take place will take place and it will taper off at some point (China -lockdown, Korea -Testing, Singapore- Contact tracing)

An article stating that NHS planning is planning for 80% infected doesn't mean 80% will be infected. Language is important. 

 

[Madyaker]

2 minutes ago, Gregfc15 said:

I mean a worst case scenario used for planning purposes would use one as the basis to come up with that worst case number, but this doesn't mean that worst case number will be the actual total that occurs. The curve won't rise forever. Interventions will take place will take place and it will taper off at some point (China -lockdown, Korea -Testing, Singapore- Contact tracing)

An article stating that NHS planning is planning for 80% infected doesn't mean 80% will be infected. Language is important. 

 

I don't know man. Cheltenham still open, loads of gigs happening all over the uk this weekend, this is when it's spreading. This is worth a watch

 

[Reckoner]

8 minutes ago, Madyaker said:

I don't know man. Cheltenham still open, loads of gigs happening all over the uk this weekend, this is when it's spreading. This is worth a watch

Cheers. Will take a look at that later. 

It's obviously spreading, but it won't spread forever. Actions will be taken to limit spread as per the Pandemic Plan. Now there's plenty of debate as to whether they are being agressive enough, what is the right balance between the economy vs Public Health, is there an 'acceptable' number of deaths, whether cancelling events without other lockdown measures acheives anything etc but we can at least avoid panic over media articles stating "X amount of people will DIE!!!!" when that number used is based off a worst case estimate.

 

[Dusk1983]

Anybody still talking about Glastonbury is completely divorced from reality.

[dotdash79]

F1 looks like it’s cancelled until the beginning of June. 

[rivalschools.price]

35 minutes ago, Dusk1983 said:

Anybody still talking about Glastonbury is completely divorced from reality.

To be fair, this is a festival forum.

There are plenty of forums online to talk about the virus in general.

[I am Jon]

3 hours ago, Gregfc15 said:

I mean a worst case scenario used for planning purposes would use one as the basis to come up with that worst case number, but this doesn't mean that worst case number will be the actual total that occurs. The curve won't rise forever. Interventions will take place will take place and it will taper off at some point (China -lockdown, Korea -Testing, Singapore- Contact tracing)

An article stating that NHS planning is planning for 80% infected doesn't mean 80% will be infected. Language is important. 

 

I think the issue is even if a country manages to get it under control through lockdowns as soon as they are lifted it will likely flare up again / be reintroduced. China is still a long way from business as usual, restrictions across whole country are still stricter than Italy let alone whats happening in wuhan.

 

Edit: im feeling ill with flu like symptoms so pretty pessimistic at moment. Could just be regular flu and sure I will get over it ether way. Looks like I'm isolating at home for next 7 days anyhow.

Edited March 13, 2020 by I am Jon

[sirjonnyp]

6 hours ago, Rubber Soldier said:

 In three and a half months China’s managed to hit its peak, bring the numbers back down, and is now starting to return to normality.  

If you think they're going to be removing their social distancing policies soon I think you're going to be disappointed. There are still new cases occurring and will be just as susceptible to a new outbreak if they move out of lockdown. 

 

Edit: Good graph from this excellent article that someone shared a few days ago where Denver introduced a social distancing policy and then loosened it, before having to reintroduce it again. 

Edited March 13, 2020 by sirjonnyp

[iloveglasto2020]

4 minutes ago, sirjonnyp said:

If you think they're going to be removing their social distancing policies soon I think you're going to be disappointed. There are still new cases occurring and will be just as susceptible to a new outbreak if they move out of lockdown. 

Correct...also they’ve controlled their outbreak by literally welding people into their homes and, well, it’s China - there’s zero chance we have the actual facts.

 I don’t think we can model anything on how China has dealt with this

[iloveglasto2020]

6 hours ago, Rubber Soldier said:

The festival isn’t for three and a half months. Three and half months ago none of us had heard of Covid-19. In three and a half months China’s managed to hit its peak, bring the numbers back down, and is now starting to return to normality. There’s no reason to think we can’t do similar. Is it a worry for Glastonbury? Of course, but the doom and gloom surrounding this thread is mental. 

China managed to hit its peak with extreme measures, I’m not sure people would stand for being welded into their homes or being forced out of their homes into quarantine in the UK.

Also, the numbers that have come out of China will be hugely inaccurate, they won’t have been completely honest and even if they were they can’t have possibly tested everyone. This is 100% bigger than you think it is 

[I am Jon]

12 minutes ago, iloveglasto2020 said:

Correct...also they’ve controlled their outbreak by literally welding people into their homes and, well, it’s China - there’s zero chance we have the actual facts.

 I don’t think we can model anything on how China has dealt with this

I have had first hand accounts from family over there of neighbour's been locked in home (no where near wuhan) for failing to self quarantine after travelling to other city (also not wuhan region). Work places are slowly reopening and roadblocks are been lifted but restaurants still closed, no gatherings, restricted travel between cities, daily health checks / tracking etc...

Edited March 13, 2020 by I am Jon

[iloveglasto2020]

2 minutes ago, I am Jon said:

I have had first hand accounts from family over there of neighbour's been locked in home (no where near wuhan) for failing to self quarantine after travelling to other city (also not wuhan region). Work places are slowly reopening but restaurants still closed, no gatherings etc...

Yeah I think this is going to be affecting us as a human race for many months to come unfortunately. The doctors I work with are level headed and not known for dramatics, and they are all very, very worried.

on the plus side, maybe we’ll manage to change the mind of some anti vaxxers?

[squirrelarmy]

4 minutes ago, iloveglasto2020 said:

maybe we’ll manage to change the mind of some anti vaxxers?

We’ll be lucky. I saw something the other day where someone was convinced that vaccines are now resulting in super viruses evolving. 
 

I was quite surprised to see an anti vaxxer that actually believed in evolution. 

[AlexOvd]

[TheFullShaboo]

First time visiting this thread since the lineup dropped, and what a glorious 12 hours it was.

[hfuhruhurr]

The key worker thing and their singular expertise, coupled with the responsibility that comes with running it - ugh. Methinks any risk assessment will be a no-go. Sorry - now changed my mind twice. Will change it again in a mo.

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

The virus is going to pass through regardless. It may well get bad but it will not be as bad as the worse case scenarios, nothing ever is for obvious reasons. The weather may help and some point there will be a vaccine. As time passes we will know more and more about the virus that will help. viruses spread exponentially so every day the number of new cases will be greater than the number of new cases the day before, so nobody should be alarmed or panicked when we hit 200 today and then over 300 hundred tomorrow and so on..... that was always going to happen. Just carry on following the advice and being sensible. Things will get worse before they get better and be shit for a couple of months, but Glastonbury aside life has to go back to normal at some point otherwise life Weill never be the same again if the economy is wrecked beyond repair 

Edited March 13, 2020 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[babyblade41]

42 minutes ago, I am Jon said:

I think the issue is even if a country manages to get it under control through lockdowns as soon as they are lifted it will likely flare up again / be reintroduced. China is still a long way from business as usual, restrictions across whole country are still stricter than Italy let alone whats happening in wuhan.

 

Edit: im feeling ill with flu like symptoms so pretty pessimistic at moment. Could just be regular flu and sure I will get over it ether way. Looks like I'm isolating at home for next 7 days anyhow.

Same here, not flu but had a hacking cough for the last few days and high temp. So so I've been in self isolation since Monday ..slept on the sofa last night with the back door open to cool down a bit ...since I packed up smoking nearly 2 years ago I've picked up every bug going !!

[kalifire]

I basically agree with you @Deaf Nobby Burton, and the only thing we can do is follow guidelines, but this:

6 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

life has to go back to normal at some point otherwise life Weill never be the same again

is no kind of argument. If this event becomes even half as bad as the worst case scenarios, it will shake the very foundations of society as we have been fortunate enough to experience it in modern times, and if things just drift back to normal, it'll be the most depressing aspect of the whole sorry chapter.

I've often wondered what it would take to shake us out of our anaesthetised entitlement, and I've long thought it would take something quite tragic; something that feels almost apocalyptic, to wake us up to the duty of care we have towards one another and the causal impact we each have. A global pandemic is one such scenario. I sincerely hope that we come out of this a better people, or it will simply happen again.

[Mr.Tease]

Guardian feed saying China's first case was actually back on November 17th, quite a bit earlier than thought